Quote:
Originally Posted by nixcity
That is why I put for example, 2 equally priced bonds. One on G/L would capture at least 1.5 times the amount of people for the same price.
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Your ridership estimate is, to be generous, very optimistic.
Let's sanity check it against the existing transit in that corridor.
The 1+801 sees ridership of approximately 15k.
But light rail on G/L wouldn't cover the current distance of the 801. It goes 21 miles.
Let's be generous and say the G/L light rail route covers 10k of those existing riders. Even though you're losing all the close-in rider on South Congress. And even assuming all those current 1 riders (using a local route) are willing to switch to a non-local with more separated stop spacing.
Your 40k ridership would then be a 4x multiplier based on mode preference.
I think that stretches the limits of feasibility.
As a comparison, I think the existing bus ridership in the 2014 plan route was ~7k. And there undoubtedly is a "rail preference" in ridership, so both would see increases. But 4x just seems too much. And if you personally believe in 4x, then you should use that for both.