Metro Phoenix Transit/Transportation Developments

[TakeFive]

Time to update and make my final point.

QUESTION:
Does anybody know if the $16.7 billion in estimated tax revenue was figured in today's $'s or is it estimated total $'s including escalators over time?

According to Transportation 2050 Funding and Tax Revenue Distributions 35% of the funds are designated for (new) Light Rail. That amounts to nearly $6 billion. To the City's credit this is based only on projected taxes and doesn't include the potential of Federal FTA grants which could potentially jump that figure by maybe 35%. Using a more conservative $4 billion base figure and adding 35% yields $5.4 billion; then add back in the $2 billion in unmatched funds would mean a Grand Total of $7.4 billion.

I know that Light Rail is sexy and fixed lines do more predictably lead to private sector investments but well-done BRT has also proven to lead to add-on investments. Cleveland's Health Line BRT is Exhibit A for this.

Since exit2lef and I have agreed that planned light rail extensions intended to be complete by 2023 are all a Go and that the I-10 corridor is ideal for BRT then it shall be thusly done.

I'll suggest that that the Paradise Valley corridor will get built and will likely cost in the neighborhood of $2 billion.

If Phoenix would reallocate some of that light rail money to rebuilding Complete Streets including a high level of enhanced bus service they could change the whole look and feel of much of the central city and many of the corridors in and out.

Why make the same mistakes as Denver? To be fair RTD built out rail lines at $58 million per mile and that cost can't be duplicated - and is similar in cost to Phoenix's $70 million per mile for an urban line. Maybe if like Miami, Denver waits 3 decades it will all have been worth it. In Phoenix's case utilizing some vision (like with the Paradise Valley line) is a fair consideration but still... all those Green Streets that could be done? Green Streets improvements combined with enhanced bus service should surely lead to lots of private sector investment.

Originally Posted by exit2lef

To give a specific example, dedicated bus lanes and other BRT features would be appropriate on Bell Road. That's a heavily traveled corridor that needs better transit service. It would make no sense to build light rail there because it is so far removed from current track and is fundamentally, and probably permanently, suburban and auto-centric in design.

Not only would I agree but the best you're likely to see is some level of enhanced service initially and maybe at some future point designated curbside lanes.

[biggus diggus]

I agree complete streets and really good bus service would be money best spent. Light rail is a novelty, if the conversation was elevated rail or subway I'd have a different take.

[exit2lef]

Originally Posted by TakeFive

Time to update and make my final point.

QUESTION:


I know that Light Rail is sexy and fixed lines do more predictably lead to private sector investments but well-done BRT has also proven to lead to add-on investments. Cleveland's Health Line BRT is Exhibit A for this.

...

Since exit2lef and I have agreed that planned light rail extensions intended to be complete by 2023 are all a Go and that the I-10 corridor is ideal for BRT then it shall be thusly done.

I'll suggest that that the Paradise Valley corridor will get built and will likely cost in the neighborhood of $2 billion.

If Phoenix would reallocate some of that light rail money to rebuilding Complete Streets including a high level of enhanced bus service they could change the whole look and feel of much of the central city and many of the corridors in and out.

Why make the same mistakes as Denver? To be fair RTD built out rail lines at $58 million per mile and that cost can't be duplicated - and is similar in cost to Phoenix's $70 million per mile for an urban line. Maybe if like Miami, Denver waits 3 decades it will all have been worth it. In Phoenix's case utilizing some vision (like with the Paradise Valley line) is a fair consideration but still... all those Green Streets that could be done? Green Streets improvements combined with enhanced bus service should surely lead to lots of private sector investment.


Not only would I agree but the best you're likely to see is some level of enhanced service initially and maybe at some future point designated curbside lanes.

When BRT advocates claim that the bus projects they support lead to enhanced investment, usually it's the street improvements themselves and not the buses that make that happen. Add rail to the mix, and you get more investment.

Although I agree about I-10 being better served by BRT, I continue to strenuously disagree with general advocacy of BRT over light rail. There is simply no comparison between the two modes in terms of ride comfort and consumer preference. In corridors suitable for rail, BRT is a sorry second choice.

[TakeFive]

Originally Posted by exit2lef

When BRT advocates claim that the bus projects they support lead to enhanced investment, usually it's the street improvements themselves and not the buses that make that happen. Add rail to the mix, and you get more investment.

Cleveland's HealthLine gives more development bang for the buck than other transit corridors, study finds
September 24, 2013 By Alison Grant, The Plain Dealer

CLEVELAND, Ohio -- Bus rapid transit – led by Cleveland’s HealthLine – is proving to be a form of mass transit that efficiently sparks urban development, according to a study of 21 North American transit corridors released this morning.

“It can move an urban economy forward quickly and efficiently,” said Walter Hook, head of the Institute for Transportation & Development Policy.

What are the specifics on the HealthLine?

The Greater Cleveland Regional Transit Authority's Euclid Avenue HealthLine generated $114.54 in economic development for every dollar spent on the bus corridor, the researchers concluded.

That’s based on a $50 million price tag for the HealthLine, or strictly the costs of the transit components -- its customized articulated buses, stations and signage – and a calculation that the project leveraged $5.8 billion in transit-oriented development.

And how does this compare to light rail?

Annie Weinstock, one of the report's authors, said all of the bus rapid transit and light rail systems in the study were analyzed according to their core transportation costs.

Portland’s MAX Blue Line light rail generated more investment than Cleveland’s HealthLine – some $6.6 billion. But the steep cost of building light rail resulted in a return of only $3.74 on every transit dollar spent.

Therein was a key rationale for the research – dispelling the notion that light rail is necessarily the premier choice for urban transportation.

A point I would add is that Portland would have waay more investment if neither project had been built bcuz... Portland V Cleveland? lol, Not even close.

Jobs doubled along Euclid Avenue after completion of HealthLine: CSU study

In Cleveland, they built it, and riders came, along with a whole lot more ...

New Evidence That Bus Rapid Transit Done Right Spurs Development
Jan 12, 2016 By Angie Schmitt - StreetsBlog USA

But a new study [PDF] by Arthur C. Nelson of the University of Arizona and released by Transportation for America finds that BRT lines can indeed shape real estate and attract jobs — if the projects are done

I have not read the pdf which actually claims Nelson (and Joanna Ganning) are from the U of Utah so I'd guess that's just more of Angie's 'stout' reporting.

[TakeFive]

Originally Posted by exit2lef

Although I agree about I-10 being better served by BRT, I continue to strenuously disagree with general advocacy of BRT over light rail. There is simply no comparison between the two modes in terms of ride comfort and consumer preference. In corridors suitable for rail, BRT is a sorry second choice.

Man, you sure are stubborn.

I love light and commuter rail and I've spent years reading about it. I've spent pages on SCF debating the degreed professionals Cirrus and PLANSIT and everybody else in fact defending RTD FasTracks projects. Not to bore but they're all suburb to city; it's a visionary system intended to direct future TOD over decades. I know these projects well as I often followed the spreadsheet updates. Bottom line is Phoenix picked the one urban route that is 'textbook' and Denver doesn't even have one urban route - although most of the lines go through some urban area.

But Phoenix and Denver are very different from each other and each needs to decide for itself what is best. I think you have an irrational support of rail transit though.

You can't afford to put light rail every place for starters. Yes, street improvements are instrumental in each case for inducing new investment but at $15-20 million per mile for enhanced buses vs $150 million per mile for light rail you can obviously afford to do a lot more with streets with buses as opposed to streets with light rail. That includes streets like Project B where the focus is on nice sidewalks, landscaping and protected cycle tracks with regular ole bus service.

Interestingy Cirrus started one of his fun projects (that doesn't finish but that's OK). See this about various cities best bus ridership routes.
Where would you wish to add light rail that could get even half the ridership of the current line? And how much do you want to spend on how many different LRT lines as opposed to alternative opportunities?

[exit2lef]

Originally Posted by TakeFive

Man, you sure are stubborn.
...
Where would you wish to add light rail that could get even half the ridership of the current line? And how much do you want to spend on how many different LRT lines as opposed to alternative opportunities?

I don't advocate rail everywhere, but I don't believe BRT is an acceptable substitute for rail in corridors that are well suited to rail. By all means, bus service should be enhanced citywide. It already has been with newer equipment, expanded hours, and increased frequency. We should continue those efforts by adding, where appropriate, BRT features like all-door boarding and dedicated lanes. We should also stop slowing down buses by making them duck in and out of bus pull-outs, which prioritize car traffic over all other modes.

What we shouldn't do, as I've said before, is pretend that if buses are enhanced enough they can be as good as trains in places where trains are best. One example that I've given before: The Biltmore area is a logical destination for light rail. It's got density in terms of housing, employment, and retail, and it's not far from the existing line. Another example is Thomas Road, which is better suited to light rail than BRT. Leave BRT to the freeway medians and northeast Phoenix, where rail has limited potential.

As for cost, as I've said before, I don't necessarily see BRT as cheaper. The more train-like you make it, the more it costs up front. Then add in the shorter lifespans of buses, and i suspect the gap would close over several decades of service. By the way, one of your quotes above is from the head of the Institute for Transportation & Development Policy. ITDP is a BRT advocacy organization. Its website contains a statement of principles outlining a belief that with enough fairy dust buses can be as good as trains. It's hardly neutral in this debate. In fact, it's just as stubborn as i am.

[TakeFive]

Originally Posted by exit2lef

What we shouldn't do, as I've said before, is pretend that if buses are enhanced enough they can be as good as trains in places where trains are best. One example that I've given before: The Biltmore area is a logical destination for light rail. It's got density in terms of housing, employment, and retail, and it's not far from the existing line. Another example is Thomas Road, which is better suited to light rail than BRT. Leave BRT to the freeway medians and northeast Phoenix, where rail has limited potential.

Good comment.

I have no argument with Biltmore but how are you proposing to get there? Camelback or one of the streets like 24th or 32nd?

I have mixed feeling about Thomas but am intrigued. Is Thomas, west of the 51 not as wide as other streets or am I mistaken? From what point to what point are you thinking of. Aren't parts of Thoma a little dicey? It reminds me a bit of East Colfax in Denver where attracting 'choice' riders is harder due to the abundance or sketchy riders although I understand the limited bus is better than the local bus. Denver's choice of BRT though was financial and not discriminatory. Maintenance and security issues/costs are higher.

Originally Posted by exit2lef

By the way, one of your quotes above is from the head of the Institute for Transportation & Development Policy. ITDP is a BRT advocacy organization. Its website contains a statement of principles outlining a belief that with enough fairy dust buses can be as good as trains. It's hardly neutral in this debate. In fact, it's just as stubborn as i am.

- Good to know and I'm not particularly surprised. It doesn't necessarily invalidate their analysis; you just need to consider the bias as well as planning objectives and context.

Referring back to 'the maps' 19th Ave would seem to be an ideal light rail route up to Bell Road/101 since you're already headed in that direction. It would add good north-south access.

[exit2lef]

Originally Posted by TakeFive

Good comment.

I have no argument with Biltmore but how are you proposing to get there? Camelback or one of the streets like 24th or 32nd?

I have mixed feeling about Thomas but am intrigued. Is Thomas, west of the 51 not as wide as other streets or am I mistaken? From what point to what point are you thinking of. Aren't parts of Thoma a little dicey? It reminds me a bit of East Colfax in Denver where attracting 'choice' riders is harder due to the abundance or sketchy riders although I understand the limited bus is better than the local bus. Denver's choice of BRT though was financial and not discriminatory. Maintenance and security issues/costs are higher.

Either east from the existing line via Camelback or up 24th Street with an airport connection might work for Biltmore. There may be some sketchy areas of Thomas in Maryvale, but they're no worse than sections of Washington/Jefferson and 19th Avenue already served. As much as I want to attract discretionary passengers, it's also important to upgrade the experience for the transit dependent. I think Thomas is a good candidate for light rail because the existing bus line there is now the most heavily used in the city, and the street crosses through the heart of Midtown while passing by major destinations like Phoenix College, St. Joseph's, and Phoenix Children's Hospital. What bugs me most of all, though, is seeing light rail proposed for I-10 and BRT proposed for Thomas. That's exactly the opposite of what would make sense.

[TakeFive]

Originally Posted by biggus diggus

I agree complete streets and really good bus service would be money best spent. Light rail is a novelty, if the conversation was elevated rail or subway I'd have a different take.

Per your request:


Image: Guangzhou Metro via NextCity

China Gets Nearly 100 New Miles of Urban Subway Lines
JANUARY 3, 2018 BY SANDY SMITH - NextCity

The largest metro opening took place on Dec. 28, when a total of 82 km (51 miles) of new lines and extensions opened in the city of Guangzhou. Three new metro lines entered service that day: the initial sections of Lines 9 and 14 and the entirety of Line 13.

Phoenix should have at least one subway line somewhere, don't you think?

Any thoughts where one should go?

I'll suggest Camelback Rd from 20th street to 40th street.

[TakeFive]

Image courtesy of Valley Metro

South Central Design Update Public Meeting
Wed., Jan. 17, 2018 5:30 p.m. - South Mountain Community Center, Phoenix
Thu., Jan. 18, 2018 5:30 p.m. - Lowell Elementary School, Phoenix

Isn't this project up for FTA funding this year?

The figures I see are an estimated cost of $704.54 million and they're asking for 49.5% FTA grant. Phoenix is to put up 27.2% and MAG will put up 23.3%. That strong of a match may be optimistic but being one of seven applications for DOT's LadderSTEP Pilot program ( Ladders of Opportunity Transportation Empowerment Pilot) should be a plus.

I'm also curious to see if there will be any cost estimate adjustments?

We just have to hope first that Congress finds a way to keep the government "Open" and secondly this project passes muster for funding.

[muertecaza]

Originally Posted by TakeFive

Image courtesy of Valley Metro

South Central Design Update Public Meeting
Wed., Jan. 17, 2018 5:30 p.m. - South Mountain Community Center, Phoenix
Thu., Jan. 18, 2018 5:30 p.m. - Lowell Elementary School, Phoenix

Isn't this project up for FTA funding this year?

The figures I see are an estimated cost of $704.54 million and they're asking for 49.5% FTA grant. Phoenix is to put up 27.2% and MAG will put up 23.3%. That strong of a match may be optimistic but being one of seven applications for DOT's LadderSTEP Pilot program ( Ladders of Opportunity Transportation Empowerment Pilot) should be a plus.

I'm also curious to see if there will be any cost estimate adjustments?

We just have to hope first that Congress finds a way to keep the government "Open" and secondly this project passes muster for funding.

South Central wasn't included in the FTA's FY 2018 New Starts (which is where they are looking for their federal funding) funding recommendations. The hope I believe is to get funding in FY 2019 and start construction next year. We'll see. I don't think they're rated that highly on the FTA's scale. But I hope it goes well.

[TakeFive]

Air cargo hub to open at Phoenix-Mesa Gateway Airport; 17,000 new jobs expected
Jan 5, 2018 by Rudy Rivas - abc15 Arizona

Arizona Governor Doug Ducey announced on Friday afternoon that SkyBridge Arizona will set up a brand-new facility at Phoenix-Mesa Gateway Airport.

The facility will be America’s first international air cargo process hub. It will house Mexican and United States customs.

What does this mean?

According to SkyBridge Arizona, the 15-year build-out plan includes improvements to infrastructure around the airport.

Developers estimate Phoenix-Mesa Gateway Airport will see an increase of an additional 2,000 cargo flights per year, which climbs to 10,000 flights by 2036.

[CrestedSaguaro]

Originally Posted by TakeFive

Air cargo hub to open at Phoenix-Mesa Gateway Airport; 17,000 new jobs expected
Jan 5, 2018 by Rudy Rivas - abc15 Arizona

What does this mean?

I was just getting ready to post this. Huge news for Gateway and the East Valley!

[exit2lef]

"Ability360 always been just barely out of reach of transit. Phoenix’s light rail has run past Ability360 since 2008, but the closest stations are about a mile away in each direction. That’s about to change, however, thanks to the people who use and work at Ability360, as well as Phoenix residents’ decision to invest in transit."

https://usa.streetsblog.org/2018/01/...-disabilities/

[N830MH]

Originally Posted by exit2lef

"Ability360 always been just barely out of reach of transit. Phoenix’s light rail has run past Ability360 since 2008, but the closest stations are about a mile away in each direction. That’s about to change, however, thanks to the people who use and work at Ability360, as well as Phoenix residents’ decision to invest in transit."

https://usa.streetsblog.org/2018/01/...-disabilities/

Thanks for sharing this! It will be completed in 2019. Subject to change. Right now, the 50th St station is still ongoing construction.

[TakeFive]

Originally Posted by RonnieFoos

I was just getting ready to post this. Huge news for Gateway and the East Valley!

Great minds... obviously.

You never know what will pan out from Big Plans but this seems wholly realistic and doable.

Originally Posted by exit2lef

"Ability360 always been just barely out of reach of transit. Phoenix’s light rail has run past Ability360 since 2008, but the closest stations are about a mile away in each direction. That’s about to change, however, thanks to the people who use and work at Ability360, as well as Phoenix residents’ decision to invest in transit."

https://usa.streetsblog.org/2018/01/...-disabilities/

Hah, I hadn't caught that piece. Good example of when Angie can write a quality, informative piece.

[TakeFive]

Eugene's Rapid Transit Bus Line Has Strong Ridership, So Far
DEC 27, 2017 by TIFFANY ECKERT - KLCC, NPR for Oregonians

Three months after launching the new EmX bus line in west Eugene, Lane Transit District reports initial numbers for ridership and route connections are “right on track.”

Good to see the new line doing well; how's the overall system performing?

In a year-to year comparison, EmX bus boardings increased by more than 43,000 riders in 2017.

With transit agencies across the country seeing a steady decline in ridership, LTD spokeswoman Therese Lang says they’ve seen an overall 1% increase.

“One percent doesn’t seem like very much but we have 10 million boardings per year,” says Lang. “And so 1% increase is 100,000 more boardings which is a pretty big number for a community like ours.”

The 1st EmX line opened in 2007 and doubled ridership within a year. The 2nd EmX Line opened in 2011.

Well designed and executed the Eugene-Springfield metropolitan areas keeps expanding their EmX routes.

exit2lef... I was wondering if there's wasn't an allergy shot available that you could take for your BRT phobia?

[TakeFive]

Phoenix is once again in rarified air

APTA has new numbers from 3rd quarter ridership.

Phoenix bus ridership is up a very healthy 6.41% for the quarter and 6.28% for the year.

Once again there were only four bus systems with positive gains. San Francisco was up a scant .76 for the quarter and 1.36% for the year. Arlington Heights was up a respectable 3.62% in the quarter leaving it up .38% for the year. Last was King County/Seattle up a modest 1.13% in the quarter and down a smidge for the year at -.03%. BTW, Denver RTD was down exactly 5% which was exactly the average of all reports for the 3rd quarter.

The light rail system was down 3.04% leaving it essentially flat for the year at up .7%.

[exit2lef]

Originally Posted by TakeFive

Well designed and executed the Eugene-Springfield metropolitan areas keeps expanding their EmX routes.

exit2lef... I was wondering if there's wasn't an allergy shot available that you could take for your BRT phobia?

Sort of like the red pill in the Matrix? Actually, I think some BRT advocates took the blue pill when they convinced themselves that buses can be equivalent to trains in high capacity corridors.

Metaphors aside, good for Eugene. A city of 150,000 with a metro area population of 350,000 is probably too small for rail transit.

Originally Posted by TakeFive

Phoenix is once again in rarified air

APTA has new numbers from 3rd quarter ridership.

Phoenix bus ridership is up a very healthy 6.41% for the quarter and 6.28% for the year.

...

The light rail system was down 3.04% leaving it essentially flat for the year at up .7%.

That's good news and a logical outcome of the increased hours of service and increased frequency on many Phoenix bus routes. After nearly a decade of operation, I would expect light rail ridership to be approaching a plateau. The next noticeable increase will most likely come when the Gilbert Road extension opens next year. Bigger increases are more likely to occur when entirely new lines (e.g. South Central) are built.

[N830MH]

http://www.progressiverailroading.co...tension--53703

Valley Metro has taken delivery of rail for its 1.9-mile Gilbert Road light-rail extension in Mesa, Arizona.

Over the next few weeks, the 80-foot rail sticks will be welded together into 400-foot strings. Progress Rail supplied the rail, which is valued at $500,000, Valley Metro spokeswoman Corinne Holliday said in an email.

The agency anticipates installing the first track in early April.