Quote:
Originally Posted by dc_denizen
Philly could see some refinery and petrochemical expansions, and maybe NG liquids (like ethane) exports.
Due to fracking, the northeast (specifically Pa and eastern OH) have increased their share of US natural gas from near-zero to just under 1/4 of the total. TX/OK/LA no longer even supply gas to the northeast - the demand is met with local production, in fact they are starting to reverse pipelines to send gas west to the mid continent and Canada. I don't think people outside the industry understand how amazing this change is.
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Exactly: Mariner West Pipeline, ME I and ME II pipelines. Ethane and other NGLs to Europe are already flowing over MEI Pipeline and loaded at the "Hook". Cove Point, MD is a large LNG facility being built. Philadelphia has 4 refineries and a host of Petrochemicals producers.
Yes oil prices are currently low, however Petrochemicals business is going bananas over cheap feedstock price, with still large margins on finished products such as PP, PET. Furthermore, as efficiency gains are being made in drilling, most producers have already dropped their total cost, including land and opex, to mid-$40's/bbl break even. Yes marginal drillers, those with high debt loads will suffer, and short term this production will be taken off the market, however current global supply is 3-4% in excess of global demand. As such, it won't take much for oil prices to rebound, and hit a higher price than people expect. The rebound in price will exceed expectations give lag in bringing production back online. Most people predict mid-$60s/bbl, however; industry leaders are projecting mid-$70s/bbl by end 2015.