Q4 2023 GDP, 50 States & DC

[dimondpark]

Released Friday, March 29, 2024

Not bad USA.

Perusing through nominal growth rates for 2023 show rather solid growth for the year--Florida posted peak China-esque growth last year, a whopping+9.8%! for 2023, Washington state also posted big y-o-y numbers(+8.6%)---as far as the 2 largest state economies, TX(+6.7%) and CA(+6.1%) are much closer as far as GDP growth then what I thought would be the case. California has likely surpassed $4T this current quarter-The Golden State just refuses to die I guess

In any event...

GDP Q4 2023
CA--$3,944,376
TX--$2,636,423
NY--$2,189,391
FL--$1,622,626
IL--$1,102,071
PA--$987,637
OH--$890,207
GA--$821,989
WA--$820,074
NJ--$817,354
NC--$783,202
MA--$750,435
VA--$722,502
MI--$670,690
TN--$534,217
CO--$532,489
MD--$521,159
AZ--$521,027
IN--$507,424
MN--$480,190
MO--$430,369
WI--$422,896
CT--$347,560
SC--$330,779
OR--$322,887
LA--$315,827
AL--$306,820
KY--$283,273
UT--$279,568
OK--$259,544
IA--$251,481
NV--$247,105
KS--$230,727
NE--$180,930
AR--$178,238
DC--$178,136
MS--$148,242
NM--$133,489
ID--$122,047
NH--$113,589
HI--$109,850
WV--$101,685
DE--$95,414
ME--$93,145
RI--$79,040
ND--$74,914
SD--$73,262
MT--$72,037
AK--$68,712
WY--$51,210
VT--$44,005

US--$27,956,998

Page 9 of this PDF:
https://www.bea.gov/sites/default/fi...4q23-a2023.pdf

[veep]

Did we pass Germany yet? Can we pass Japan before 2030?

[JManc]

Originally Posted by veep

Did we pass Germany yet? Can we pass Japan before 2030?

Japan is at 4.2T and Germany at 4.4T so CA is getting really close to becoming the third largest economy after the rest of the US and China.

[Yuri]

Originally Posted by dimondpark

Released Friday, March 29, 2024

Not bad USA.

Perusing through nominal growth rates for 2023 show rather solid growth for the year--Florida posted peak China-esque growth last year, a whopping+9.8%! for 2023, Washington state also posted big y-o-y numbers(+8.6%)---as far as the 2 largest state economies, TX(+6.7%) and CA(+6.1%) are much closer as far as GDP growth then what I thought would be the case. California has likely surpassed $4T this current quarter-The Golden State just refuses to die I guess

The thing is nominal growth is useless. First, there is the inflation which is high on the US. Secondly, there is the price variation of a big product the state produces. For instance, oil: a state might produce the same amount but prices might have fallen by 20%. It will be 0% real growth, but nominal will be -20%.

The United States GDP has grown 2.5% in 2023. Real growth for states will all probably between 1% and 4%. None got nowhere near two-digit.

In fact, the US growth has been modest and very regular for a very long time. Between 2010-2019, the highest was 3% in 2018 and the lowest 1.6% in 2011. Excluding 2020-2021 (Covid), back to this long-term normal: 1.9% (2022) and 2.5% (2023).

Originally Posted by JManc

Japan is at 4.2T and Germany at 4.4T so CA is getting really close to becoming the third largest economy after the rest of the US and China.

That illustrated what I said above. We had tons of articles saying Germany surpassed Japan in 2023 because there was recession in Japan. That's false and it was Germany that was in recession, the only developed economy doing it since 2020 (Covid). It shrank by -0.3%. Japan, on the other hand, had a very good 1.9%.

What happened then? Yen devaluated badly due Japanese negative interest rates and no inflation while the USD and Euro were up due the hike of their interest rates coupled with high inflation.

[Crawford]

Wow, Cali will be #3 very shortly. I didn't realize it was so close. Pretty cool to have one state with a bigger economy than anyplace outside of China (and obviously U.S.).

India will almost certainly pass Cali one day, but I think it can stay at #4 indefinitely.

[Wigs]

"US growth was modest"

Meanwhile, America's GDP of 27 Trillion is heading towards 30 Trillion or the current equivalent to:
14 Russias
13 Canadas
13 Brazils
nearly 9 Frances
8 UKs
7 Indias
6 Germanys
6 Japans
1.5 Chinas
(IMF 2023 nominal GDP forecast)
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/List...y_GDP_(nominal)

[TWAK]

The rest of America is holding us down!
This bodes well for the budget I hope and since countries that produce less than California get to have HSR...it's only fair we do too. How cool would it be for Texas (where do they stand?) and other states to eventually get into the global top 10?

[JoninATX]

Originally Posted by TWAK

The rest of America is holding us down!
This bodes well for the budget I hope and since countries that produce less than California get to have HSR...it's only fair we do too. How cool would it be for Texas (where do they stand?) and other states to eventually get into the global top 10?

Texas currently sits behind France as the World's 8th largest economy.

[Crawford]

Originally Posted by Wigs

"US growth was modest"

The EU economy is now about 70% of the U.S. economy. The EU economy used to be larger.

The GDP per capita ratio is approaching 2:1.

I spent about 1/3 of my life in (West, then Western) Germany, 2/3 in U.S. The countries used to have pretty similar levels of household prosperity. Now it's an aching gap, where, returning home, you feel like the Beverly Hillbillies at an Appalachian reunion. I have cousins who are MDs in Germany, who would make much more working as garbage men in NYC. Hell, they'd make much more as garbage men in Cleveland.

The U.S. can't build anything, has the most f---ked up politics in the developed world, is a health calamity, and is the global mecca for weirdos and nuts, but still does a pretty good job of making people prosperous.

[Crawford]

Actually, I'm off. The divergence is even larger.

In 2008, the EU and U.S. were essentially even.

By 3Q 2023, the EU had a GDP of 15 trillion, U.S. has a GDP of 27 trillion. Italy is essentially as materially prosperous as Mississippi and Germany is essentially as materially prosperous as Oklahoma.

[Yuri]

Originally Posted by Crawford

The EU economy is now about 70% of the U.S. economy. The EU economy used to be larger.

The GDP per capita ratio is approaching 2:1.

I spent about 1/3 of my life in (West, then Western) Germany, 2/3 in U.S. The countries used to have pretty similar levels of household prosperity. Now it's an aching gap, where, returning home, you feel like the Beverly Hillbillies at an Appalachian reunion. I have cousins who are MDs in Germany, who would make much more working as garbage men in NYC. Hell, they'd make much more as garbage men in Cleveland.

The U.S. can't build anything, has the most f---ked up politics in the developed world, is a health calamity, and is the global mecca for weirdos and nuts, but still does a pretty good job of making people prosperous.

I find so weird as you call yourself a progressive while looks like a proud nationalist who believe your country is the best just because you happen to live there. The gap between the US and other developed countries didn’t increase at all be in terms of real income or other marks such as health or education.

In fact, the only gap that increased was life expectancy, in this case the US is left behind and it’s now on developing country levels.

You can have a good life up there in NYC, but that doesn’t mean all the rest of the US is the same there are plenty of people struggling. I myself have a much higher standard of living than the average American, but I’ll not assume that’s the same for all the other people in my country. That would be silly.

[Yuri]

Originally Posted by Wigs

"US growth was modest"

Meanwhile, America's GDP of 27 Trillion is heading towards 30 Trillion or the current equivalent to:
14 Russias
13 Canadas
13 Brazils
nearly 9 Frances
8 UKs
7 Indias
6 Germanys
6 Japans
1.5 Chinas
(IMF 2023 nominal GDP forecast)
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/List...y_GDP_(nominal)

You realize your post has nothing to do with the quote, right?

The fact of the US GDP being large has nothing to do with the pace of its growth. There are plenty of very tiny economies growing very fast.

And yes, the US growth rate averaged around 2% on the past 15 years and that’s modest compared to the US itself between the 1990’s and 2008 which was above 3%.

Even though waving flag is not only dated, but very tacky, it’s plain obvious the US has plenty of economic issues which is reflected on its current political climate and social divide.

[jbermingham123]

Yeah.. very dark times are ahead for Europe unfortunately. In Italy and Germany, in about 10 years, there will be two retirees for every working person. 10 years after that it will be 3:1. In other words, every working-age adult will be supporting both of their parents plus some other person who didnt have kids. And thats a societal death trap, because that extra financial burden will be enough to prevent a lot of working-age people from being able to have kids of their own.

That, plus the fact that the entire European economy is now firmly in the grip of tech companies –and increasinly banks and asset management corps– from another continent, will push a lot of places from "poorish first-world" places, if you will, to utter poverty.

The sharply declining rates of home ownership in various european countries is the ominous sign of this. people are now paying rent to live in the villages their families have lived in for centuries (or milennia)

[Crawford]

Originally Posted by Yuri

I find so weird as you call yourself a progressive while looks like a proud nationalist who believe your country is the best just because you happen to live there.

I've definitely made no such claims. Never claimed to be progressive, never claimed to be nationalist, never claimed U.S. is "best".

It's indisputable that the U.S. is (strictly materially) the richest society in the history of humanity. And even with the rise of the developing world, the U.S. share of global economy is the same in 2024 as it was 50-60 years ago, while almost all other developed nations have seen their shares drop.

[jbermingham123]

Originally Posted by Crawford

And even with the rise of the developing world, the U.S. share of global economy is the same in 2024 as it was 50-60 years ago, while almost all other developed nations have seen their shares drop.

^^This is the critical point that so many people fail to understand.

We arent on the gold standard anymore. Fiat money value is all relative to the total supply and the valuation. If either the value of the currency drops (inflation) or your % share of the total supply decreases, then You Are Now Poorer, the end.

If more people realized this, maybe we would protest more about massive government bailouts and tax breaks for the wealthy, because they are, *literally* wealth transfers from the poor/miiddle class to the rich. And thats what american corporations and the US dollar system has done to Europe (and the american middle class, too)



For anyone who says "but thats just money, nothing in the physical world has changed!! european standard of living is the same!!", then to that i say, yeah have fun with that when a corporatioon buys your mom's house. Because thats what they're doing with that money. sorry.

[Yuri]

Originally Posted by Crawford

I've definitely made no such claims. Never claimed to be progressive, never claimed to be nationalist, never claimed U.S. is "best".

It's indisputable that the U.S. is (strictly materially) the richest society in the history of humanity. And even with the rise of the developing world, the U.S. share of global economy is the same in 2024 as it was 50-60 years ago, while almost all other developed nations have seen their shares drop.

Do you realize you cannot look at GDP, specially in a country whose currency is the world reserve and make assumptions on how rich an individual is on the ground, right?

Take a look on GDP growth rates of the US (check the 25 year button): https://tradingeconomics.com/united-...ear-gdp-growth and compare to random developed countries like Britain: https://tradingeconomics.com/united-...ear-gdp-growth or Canada: https://tradingeconomics.com/canada/...ear-gdp-growth

That's how you measure a GDP growth evolution: not looking at GDP converted on US Dollars or ignoring things like inflation that's widely different from country to country. Materially speaking, the US is not an outlier on the past 25 years and income gap between it and other developed economies didn't growth as you implied.

An no, Germany is not Appalachia. It's a country with very low unemployment rates, a more egalitarian society and with very good health and education standards.

[Yuri]

Originally Posted by jbermingham123

Yeah.. very dark times are ahead for Europe unfortunately. In Italy and Germany, in about 10 years, there will be two retirees for every working person. 10 years after that it will be 3:1. In other words, every working-age adult will be supporting both of their parents plus some other person who didnt have kids. And thats a societal death trap, because that extra financial burden will be enough to prevent a lot of working-age people from being able to have kids of their own.

Where did you get this numbers for Germany and Italy? As today, only 23% of German population is above 65 y/o (their retirement age). And no, this number won't climb to 60% within 10 years. BTW, in the US is 18%.

I sense there is a massive misunderstood here in this forum on how any economy outside the US works on their most basic level.

[jbermingham123]

Originally Posted by Yuri

Where did you get this numbers for Germany and Italy? As today, only 23% of German population is above 65 y/o (their retirement age). And no, this number won't climb to 60% within 10 years. BTW, in the US is 18%.

I sense there is a massive misunderstood here in this forum on how any economy outside the US works on their most basic level.

The research of Stephen J Shaw.

Here's a clip from his documentary, Birthgap:

https://youtu.be/A6s8QlIGanA?t=1104

Italy and Germany have both had birthgaps of 50% or more for about a decade (in other words, half as many newborns as people retiring). Roughly ⅓ of the population in both places is childless. In about two decades, unless they have mass immigration, that will catch up to them.

Also, yes. the US is following roughly the same path, but with a 20-30 year delay.

[Crawford]

Originally Posted by Yuri

An no, Germany is not Appalachia. It's a country with very low unemployment rates, a more egalitarian society and with very good health and education standards.

Germany is poorer than Appalachia. It also has higher unemployment than Appalachia. The only Appalachian state with similar income is West Virginia. Even Kentucky is richer.

It's definitely more egalitarian, but not by much anymore. Income inequality in Germany has been growing much faster than in the U.S. Income inequality is outrageous largely planet-wide, and Europe is a long way from the egalitarian postwar decades. Since the 1990's and Chancellor Schröder, inequality has skyrocketed.

And inequality is not important if medians are high. Who cares if there are a bunch of billionaires if the median family is making high incomes? Who cares if there are no billionaires if the median family is poor? Median incomes in the U.S. are well over 50% higher than in Germany.

[Yuri]

Originally Posted by Crawford

Germany is poorer than Appalachia. It also has higher unemployment than Appalachia. The only Appalachian state with similar income is West Virginia. Even Kentucky is richer.

It's definitely more egalitarian, but not by much anymore. Income inequality in Germany has been growing much faster than in the U.S. Income inequality is outrageous largely planet-wide, and Europe is a long way from the egalitarian postwar decades. Since the 1990's and Chancellor Schröder, inequality has skyrocketed.

And inequality is not important if medians are high. Who cares if there are a bunch of billionaires if the average family is making high incomes? Who cares if there are no billionaires if the average family is poor? Median incomes in the U.S. are over 50% higher than in Germany.

Again, you believe GDP can be translated into wages or personal assets. And worse: that everything must be converted in US Dollars ignoring local prices. Really, you should take a look on the very definition of GDP.

BTW, life expectancy in West Virginia (US$ 56,000 GDP per capita) is 72 years old (!!!!!!), like Bangladesh. Yes, Bangladesh (US$ 2,400 GDP per capita). Brazil, a country with the highest number of homicides in the world, lots of car related deaths, it's at 77 y/o (now higher than the US).

One would think those West Virginians, with all this flashy money you say they have, they could at least to pay for a decent hospital, right?

Do you see dollars, euros, pesos or reais buy different things in different places?