Miami Has a Four-Year Backlog of Overbuilt Luxury Condos - Page 2

UrbanImpact · #21 Posted **Apr 3, 2018, 5:00 PM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by pj3000

Not true. Very, very different situations.

Miami is less than 7' above current sea level. And it sits atop porous limestone bedrock. Salt water encroachment through that porous rock has already been raising the water table of inland areas. With just the predicted 15 inches of sea level rise over the next 25 years, tidal flooding will be a daily occurence.

It's already an annual occurrence. During the King Tides in October, the canals flood a lot of the low lying areas. The canal in front of my house (there's a street that separates it) floods into the street and onto my yard/driveway.

twice a day during the King Tides.

Anyways, the opening of the brand new high speed train station in downtown Miami in the next month or two should open up a lot more opportunities. Fort Lauderdale and West Palm Beach have already seen a boon from it (the only two stations open currently).

pj3000 · #22 Posted **Apr 3, 2018, 5:10 PM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by UrbanImpact

It's already an annual occurrence. During the King Tides in October, the canals flood a lot of the low lying areas. The canal in front of my house (there's a street that separates it) floods into the street and onto my yard/driveway.

twice a day during the King Tides.

Right, so consider worse flooding than it is now on a daily basis with nearly every high tide... all the models run by the USACE, USGS, NOAA, predict that to be the new normal.

Other major cities on the Atlantic Coast or just inland... Boston, NYC, DC, Hampton Roads, Philly, Baltimore, Savannah, Charleston, even Jacksonville, while all significantly threatened by sea level rise, are not in the same situation as South Florida due to the unique geology.

mhays · #23 Posted **Apr 3, 2018, 7:23 PM**

If I was buying, I'd be curious about buildings that take that into account. Landfill set a few feet higher? Stilts? Who wants to buy in a building where you'll be paying for constant floods it wasn't built for?

bobdreamz · #24 Posted **Apr 4, 2018, 3:34 AM**

It's funny because back in the really awful nationwide real estate crash of the 2008 recession people were also saying that Miami had a multi-year backlog of luxury condos too.
Yet Miami bounced back quicker than most metros.
Is there an over supply? Probably but there isn't a over supply of land in Miami hence the increasing amount of highrises being built.
There aren't enough apartment buildings being built in Miami to keep up with demand for renters hence investors will buy & hold condos and rent these units out.
They will sell when the market is right.
Having been in the business since '95 the last thing I ever worry about is Miami real estate.

mhays · #25 Posted **Apr 4, 2018, 3:49 AM**

In any article or discussion like this, I assume people realize that a down market isn't necessarily down forever. They're only talking about today, including the effect that has on people's equity, sale prices, construction, etc.

pj3000 · #26 Posted **Apr 4, 2018, 1:00 PM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by bobdreamz

It's funny because back in the really awful nationwide real estate crash of the 2008 recession people were also saying that Miami had a multi-year backlog of luxury condos too.
Yet Miami bounced back quicker than most metros.
Is there an over supply? Probably but there isn't a over supply of land in Miami hence the increasing amount of highrises being built.
There aren't enough apartment buildings being built in Miami to keep up with demand for renters hence investors will buy & hold condos and rent these units out.
They will sell when the market is right.
Having been in the business since '95 the last thing I ever worry about is Miami real estate.

Right, Miami is Miami and people are going to want to be there.

It's not like there's this big backlog of $1M plus condos in Oklahoma City or something.

IrishIllini · #27 Posted **Apr 4, 2018, 6:51 PM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by pj3000

Right, Miami is Miami and people are going to want to be there.

It's not like there's this big backlog of $1M plus condos in Oklahoma City or something.

They want to be there now. Who knows how people will feel 30 years from now.

pj3000 · #28 Posted **Apr 4, 2018, 7:25 PM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by IrishIllini

They want to be there now. Who knows how people will feel 30 years from now.

True. Why do you think they're putting them up as fast as they can?

rhetorical question

Illithid Dude · #29 Posted **Apr 4, 2018, 9:54 PM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by pj3000

True. Why do you think they're putting them up as fast as they can?

rhetorical question

What's gonna go up faster, Miami's first supertall or the ocean? Let's find out!

chris08876 · #30 Posted **Apr 4, 2018, 10:02 PM**

Miami, like NY, have the prestige and rep to always attract the wealthy and well-to-do for years to come. EVEN if its just an investment property (where one buys just to see it skyrocket in price, and sell in a few years). Either way, the Miami-Dade metro will continue to see this happen.

Tower units don't have to be occupied for the development to be successful. They just have to sell and have that money transfer over to the developers pocket or to pay off any bank loans. Purchasing units... rentals a different story.

LouisVanDerWright · #31 Posted **Apr 5, 2018, 1:56 AM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by UrbanImpact

If Miami is underwater, then so is every major city on the Atlantic.

Y'all can rent from me when the entire East Coast is underwater and I'm chilling up here in Chicago sipping Lake Michigan water and sunning on beach in 70 degree December weather...

mhays · #32 Posted **Apr 5, 2018, 2:46 AM**

The sea levels seems primed to move some of the demand elsewhere. The real question is how bad the flooding will get, the speed it'll get worse, and how big the effect will be.

lio45 · #33 Posted **Apr 5, 2018, 5:00 AM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by chris08876

EVEN if its just an investment property (where one buys just to see it skyrocket in price, and sell in a few years).

Plus, if one is from anywhere in the North, there's the added bonus of being able to spend the winter months in nice sunny weather with warm water beaches right next door while you're holding your glass-and-steel bitcoin. It's a nice perk and I know many people who are doing this.

pj3000 · #34 Posted **Apr 5, 2018, 3:22 PM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by chris08876

Tower units don't have to be occupied for the development to be successful. They just have to sell and have that money transfer over to the developers pocket or to pay off any bank loans. Purchasing units... rentals a different story.

Well, successful for the developers' pockets, yes. But that does not necessarily translate to a successful outcome for the city.

Considering the massive amount of condo development over the past decade plus in Miami, the urban atmosphere that has resulted is far from high quality. It's really not much more than high-priced high rises.