Statistics Canada Reports II

[Innsertnamehere]

Originally Posted by kwoldtimer

I hate to think how low the $Cdn could go if BoC starts cutting rates before the USofA.

It's looking increasingly likely, honestly. Confidence in Canadian rate cuts in June have increased in the last few days with the latest inflation data all the while confidence in near-term US rate cuts is rapidly declining.

The later half of this year very well may have a significant amount of CAD devaluation against the USD. I wouldn't be surprised if the dollar drops to the low 0.60's.

[jonny24]

Everyone phrases it as CAD going down compared to USD... would it also be going down compared to EUR and GBP?

[acottawa]

Originally Posted by jonny24

Everyone phrases it as CAD going down compared to USD... would it also be going down compared to EUR and GBP?

If it was due to a Canadian action it would drop against those as well. If it was because the US dollar as appreciating then there would be less of a difference for other currencies.

[MonctonRad]

Canada is so severely fucked.........

Is anyone else at all concerned that with the perpetual and accelerating federal Liberal deficits, and with increasing interest rates, that the feds are now spending more per year servicing the federal debt than it does on health care???

Just imagine what we could do if we had not suffered under 10 years of profligate JT government spending. We would have so much more flexibility to deal with our problems it wouldn't be funny.

[Innsertnamehere]

Originally Posted by jonny24

Everyone phrases it as CAD going down compared to USD... would it also be going down compared to EUR and GBP?

depends where they are in dropping their interest rates. If Canada is cutting before anyone else, yes, it would drop against everyone else.

[Acajack]

Originally Posted by MonctonRad

Canada is so severely fucked.........

Is anyone else at all concerned that with the perpetual and accelerating federal Liberal deficits, and with increasing interest rates, that the feds are now spending more per year servicing the federal debt than it does on health care???

Just imagine what we could do if we had not suffered under 10 years of profligate JT government spending. We would have so much more flexibility to deal with our problems it wouldn't be funny.

I don't think this government are good managers by any stretch but our debt to GDP ratio is still better than almost any peer country of ours.

[thewave46]

Originally Posted by Acajack

I don't think this government are good managers by any stretch but our debt to GDP ratio is still better than almost any peer country of ours.

If one only looks at the federal debt-to-GDP, it looks middling.

When one adds in the provincial debts as well, the picture looks more bleak. Especially as we now realize the liabilities of healthcare/OAS promises made.

And no, the US is not a peer country, as it issues debt in the world’s reserve currency. Nor Japan, who funds much of its debt internally.

Comparative countries to our economic and demographic structure might include Australia, New Zealand, Scandinavia, and the UK. Aside the UK, we compare poorly to them.

[ToxiK]

Originally Posted by MonctonRad

Just imagine what we could do if we had not suffered under 10 years of profligate JT government spending. We would have so much more flexibility to deal with our problems it wouldn't be funny.

Maybe not as much as you think. I don't like Trudeau, but the pandemic would still have happened if he hadn't been Prime Minister and the spending to support workers and businesses would have still have been necessary. The inflation and the interest rates hike to fight it would still have happened because the inflation in question is an international problem.

[acottawa]

Originally Posted by ToxiK

Maybe not as much as you think. I don't like Trudeau, but the pandemic would still have happened if he hadn't been Prime Minister and the spending to support workers and businesses would have still have been necessary. The inflation and the interest rates hike to fight it would still have happened because the inflation in question is an international problem.

There was no need to pump nearly as much money into the economy as Trudeau did. CERB was more than lost income for many people, which encouraged them to not go back to work (or look for similar work) which led to labour shortages and inflation.

COVID was a supply crisis (the economy could not supply the usual level of goods and services) not a demand crisis (most people were awash in cash), hence the money dumped into the economy caused inflation.

CERB was fine for a month or two while things settled. After that there should have been some sort of enhanced EI for people that actually lost their jobs and some support for businesses that had to close.

[ToxiK]

Originally Posted by acottawa

There was no need to pump nearly as much money into the economy as Trudeau did. CERB was more than lost income for many people, which encouraged them to not go back to work (or look for similar work) which led to labour shortages and inflation.

COVID was a supply crisis (the economy could not supply the usual level of goods and services) not a demand crisis (most people were awash in cash), hence the money dumped into the economy caused inflation.

CERB was fine for a month or two while things settled. After that there should have been some sort of enhanced EI for people that actually lost their jobs and some support for businesses that had to close.

Yes, the Liberals overdid it. All I am saying is that a big chunk of the deficit of the last few years would have happened anyway.

[ericmacm]

Originally Posted by Innsertnamehere

It's looking increasingly likely, honestly. Confidence in Canadian rate cuts in June have increased in the last few days with the latest inflation data all the while confidence in near-term US rate cuts is rapidly declining.

The later half of this year very well may have a significant amount of CAD devaluation against the USD. I wouldn't be surprised if the dollar drops to the low 0.60's.

Scary to see it possibly getting to this point. I saw someone on BNN Bloomberg the other day suggesting that the CAD could even dip into the $0.50s and I am starting to think we could see it happen. I have been moving more of my investments into US funds (or USD) over the past year.

[acottawa]

Originally Posted by ToxiK

Yes, the Liberals overdid it. All I am saying is that a big chunk of the deficit of the last few years would have happened anyway.

Trudeau added 600 billion to the national debt (doubling it). A reasonable “would have happened anyway” was probably in the 100 billion range.

[MonctonRad]

Originally Posted by acottawa

Trudeau added 600 billion to the national debt (doubling it). A reasonable “would have happened anyway” was probably in the 100 billion range.

A doubling of the national debt in less than 10 years. Absolutely shameful!!!

It will take decades to fix the damage the drama queen and gym teacher has inflicted upon the country.................

[Beedok]

A low CAD is good for me, since I mostly work online and tend to be commissioned by American or European clients.
Probably good for our manufacturing and resource sectors too, by making exports more competitive. While imports are less competitive, which will encourage more people to spend their money in Canada, rather than leaking money from our economy on cross border shopping trips or hiring American consulting firms.
It all sorts itself out in the end.
(As for national debt, if we just actually taxed the rich we'd fix that fairly quickly. Something like 200 billionaires are sitting on enough wealth to erase a major chunk of it while still leaving them with more money than they could spend in a lifetime... just put up a tax on taking money out of the country first.)

[acottawa]

Originally Posted by Beedok

(As for national debt, if we just actually taxed the rich we'd fix that fairly quickly. Something like 200 billionaires are sitting on enough wealth to erase a major chunk of it while still leaving them with more money than they could spend in a lifetime... just put up a tax on taking money out of the country first.)

There are 67 billionaires in Canada according to Forbes. Billionaires don’t keep their money in a bin full of gold coins to swim in it, it is in productive assets. If the government seized a bunch of productive assets it couldn’t do much with them, let alone pay off the debt.

[YOWetal]

Originally Posted by acottawa

Trudeau added 600 billion to the national debt (doubling it). A reasonable “would have happened anyway” was probably in the 100 billion range.

Even if Trudeau kept the basic fiscal plan Harper had us on(being in balance was mostly fudged) add Covid to the mix and at least half of that is inevitable. Most of the rest is what Canadians voted for even if they pretend otherwise now. People voting to cut government spending will cry bloody murder when their CCB, OAS or other benefits are cut. The climate waste will save some cash but even that the mushy middle voted for. They just don't want to pay for it.

[biguc]

Canada could be more like Germany. The conservative government here maintained large budget surpluses, even at the cost of making necessary investments and maintaining core services, right up to the pandemic, when they larded on about €450 billion in debt. We have a centre-left coalition now but a legal debt break is making sure they keep those finances tight, which means keeping the economy in a grinding recession.

Canada's finances and economic fundamentals look enviable right now. I'd think, given the age and wealth of posters calling them shameful and inventing "reasonable" covid debts from thin air, that their performative apoplexy has more to do with the capital gains tax than sincere concern for the country's well-being.

[jonny24]

Originally Posted by YOWetal

Even if Trudeau kept the basic fiscal plan Harper had us on(being in balance was mostly fudged) add Covid to the mix and at least half of that is inevitable. Most of the rest is what Canadians voted for even if they pretend otherwise now. People voting to cut government spending will cry bloody murder when their CCB, OAS or other benefits are cut. The climate waste will save some cash but even that the mushy middle voted for. They just don't want to pay for it.

I wonder how many people are like me and don't receive any of those.

The only money I get from the government is the carbon tax rebate, which I paid for anyway.

[acottawa]

Originally Posted by YOWetal

Even if Trudeau kept the basic fiscal plan Harper had us on(being in balance was mostly fudged) add Covid to the mix and at least half of that is inevitable. Most of the rest is what Canadians voted for even if they pretend otherwise now. People voting to cut government spending will cry bloody murder when their CCB, OAS or other benefits are cut. The climate waste will save some cash but even that the mushy middle voted for. They just don't want to pay for it.

The deficit Trudeau inherited was somewhat fudged, but it was a few billion at most. There is no way 300 billion was inevitable. Most of the COVID spending was not only unnecessary but actively damaging to the country.

[ssiguy]

Hey guys. Our debt levels and floundering economy are very important issues but I think ones that would be more appropriately addressed on other forums like federal politics or economy. Let's try to keep this thread to StatsCan related issues.
Thanks.