The Pointlessness of Bribing People to Move to West Virginia for $12,000

[Manitopiaaa]

Major towns in Virginia Shenandoah Valley, Appalachia or Highlands:

• Blacksburg: $288,200 (+0.6%)
• Bristol: $112,200 (-1.7%)
• Edinburg: $185,400 (+12.1%)
• Front Royal: $208,500 (+8.0%)
• Harrisonburg: $197,400 (+0.6%)
• Hot Springs: $131,800 (+9.6%)
• Lexington: $203,600 (-19.4%)
• Luray: $162,300 (-1.6%)
• Monterey: $162,500 (+6.3%)
• Roanoke: $133,200 (-0.4%)
• Rose Hill: $65,400 (+81.7%)
• Salem: $176,800 (+1.6%)
• Staunton: $164,800 (+1.4%)
• Winchester: $236,800 (+4.7%)
• Wise: $132,400 (+13.1%)

A good border town case study:
(A) Bluefield, Virginia: $108,600 (-13.2%)
(B) Bluefield, West Virginia: $84,900 (+10.8%)

So we can say that living in Virginia comes with a $25k premium based on this example.

For the average D.C. person, there's no world I can imagine where they'd choose to live in WV and save $25k + $12k incentive. $37k is not that much money considering the average home in the metro goes up by that amount each year. And $37k is nowhere near enough savings to justify living in a deeply Republican state.

Any D.C. person who really wanted to live cheap could pick a place in Virginia's Appalachia, where prices are <$100k and you get to live in a blue state. So no benefit if that's your strategy either. Roanoke is a nice town and is as cheap as many of these WV cities.

I would take advantage only if I wanted to buy a second home near New River Gorge NP, which is truly beautiful.

[SIGSEGV]

The most fascinating thing about WV to me is Green Bank, which must be a very interesting mix of radio astronomers and luddites or supposedly EMI-sensitive people.

[iheartthed]

Originally Posted by mhays

The article (at least the snippet) misses a huge point. This is marketing. And look, it's getting attention.

Marketing PLUS a good chunk of incentive money? That can go a long way.

One person asked whether someone would uproot their lives for this. That's also missing the point. They don't have to get anyone with deep roots. A lot of people can move easily and might already be considering it. Getting a larger chunk of that could go a long way.

States are doing this because they think it'll help their economies, and they could be right. One good salary can be a multiplier on steroids. Even direct tax collections (before multiplier) might pay the $12,000 in short order.

I don't know if it's the right type of marketing, though. West Virginia is also proposing an income tax cut and reduction of services. Cutting services would seemingly undercut their effort to attract people to the state:

West Virginia weighs income tax cut to stem population loss

CHARLESTON, W.Va. (AP) — With West Virginia about to lose another congressional seat because of steady population decline, some Republican lawmakers are convinced a massive income tax cut is the key to reversing the trend. But figuring out how to do that without harming the state’s most vulnerable or punching a massive hole in the budget has proven complicated.

An effort to forge a compromise on how to pay for the tax cut hit a major roadblock Friday.

Heading into the last weekend of the 2021 legislative session, Republican Gov. Jim Justice said the House of Delegates won’t take up his bill, which narrowly won approval in the Senate.

“It surely closes the door for now,” Justice told reporters Friday. “I heard the door slam really, really hard when the House said we’re not taking it up.”

Not long after that, the House brought up the measure, only to emphatically vote it down. Justice wasn’t ready to surrender, saying he may call lawmakers back into session to take up what has been his top priority.

Although the United States doubled its population over the past seven decades, West Virginia headed in the other direction. Tracking closely with the long-term decline of the coal industry, it is the only state in the nation with fewer residents than in 1950. Figures from the 2020 U.S. census, expected to be released later this month, are projected to reduce West Virginia’s seats in the U.S. House from three to two.

https://apnews.com/article/us-news-w...c42e821b4f76df

[Crawford]

Bizarre that they believe that people aren't moving to WV because costs are too high. They really think crappier schools and public services will draw outsiders?

This will be like the Kansas disaster under Governor Brownback. Also, if I were a WV teacher or public servant I'd be furious they're threatening my employment while giving away money to newcomers.

[mhays]

Agreed that cutting taxes and services can be disastrous in the long run.

[pj3000]

Originally Posted by craigs

Why didn't a large metropolitan area evolve along the Ohio River at Parkersburg? It could have been West Virginia's Cincinnati or something.

I don't know the specific reasons. Though I imagine it's mainly because of the very rugged terrain of the state... it's just not easy to get anywhere, unless travel is via the river valleys... on the water and by rail.

If you consider the Ohio River Valley, it's pretty much continously developed from Pittsburgh all the way to Cincinnati... but if you go outside of the valley, there's basically zero flat land. The terrain of prime Appalachia just doesn't lend itself to major metro area development.

[jd3189]

Imagine if America was developed in the Middle Ages. There would have been some pretty epic towns in West Virginia and other areas of Appalachia.

[Manitopiaaa]

Originally Posted by Crawford

Bizarre that they believe that people aren't moving to WV because costs are too high. They really think crappier schools and public services will draw outsiders?

This will be like the Kansas disaster under Governor Brownback. Also, if I were a WV teacher or public servant I'd be furious they're threatening my employment while giving away money to newcomers.

West Virginia is already a basketcase, far worse than Kansas. The state has severe brain drain to Washington and Pittsburgh, there a deep stench of anti-intellectualism (being a populist evangelical bomb-thrower is the winning formula) and there's no sense of innovation beyond tax cuts. The State peaked in population in 1950 and now has less people than it had in 1935.

This is the State with the highest rate of people on food stamps, housing vouchers and Obamacare, yet the State that gladly votes for conservatives who promise to eviscerate social programs.

Honestly, the most innovative idea to fix the State is to dissolve and retrocede its territory to Virginia. West Virginia was a failed experiment. Let's learn from it and move on.

The sad thing is it's a beautiful State full of world-class nature, and the people never struck me as racist or aggressive types like you find in the Deep South. I go to New River Gorge National Park every year and am always in awe of the jurassic beauty of the place, and the people are friendly, if a bit standoff-ish. I think after declining for 70+ years, you really lose hope and just start to desperately fall for every conman who offers you the easy way out.

A good first-hand view documentary on its struggles:

• Video Link

Full Documentary (playlist): https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YOo2...Iu95CO9cL0B6Me

[craigs]

Originally Posted by Manitopiaaa

Honestly, the most innovative idea to fix the State is to dissolve and retrocede its territory to Virginia. West Virginia was a failed experiment. Let's learn from it and move on.

Or force it into Kentucky.

[eschaton]

Originally Posted by Manitopiaaa

West Virginia is already a basketcase, far worse than Kansas. The state has severe brain drain to Washington and Pittsburgh, there a deep stench of anti-intellectualism (being a populist evangelical bomb-thrower is the winning formula) and there's no sense of innovation beyond tax cuts. The State peaked in population in 1950 and now has less people than it had in 1935.

I agree with most of what you say, but not the bold. West Virginia is a very socially conservative state - it always has been. But it's always had a relatively irreligious state when compared to the true "bible belt." Not in the sense that there are a lot of true nonbelievers, but in the sense that a lot of people are only nominally Christian and don't ever really attend church. It's also traditionally been a state where more mainline Protestant churches like the Methodists are relatively strong, and the Southern Baptists are relatively weaker.

[Manitopiaaa]

Originally Posted by eschaton

I agree with most of what you say, but not the bold. West Virginia is a very socially conservative state - it always has been. But it's always had a relatively irreligious state when compared to the true "bible belt." Not in the sense that there are a lot of true nonbelievers, but in the sense that a lot of people are only nominally Christian and don't ever really attend church. It's also traditionally been a state where more mainline Protestant churches like the Methodists are relatively strong, and the Southern Baptists are relatively weaker.

According to Pew, it's the 7th most religious state: https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tan...=west-virginia

I agree it's not Alabama or Mississippi though.

Also, to be clear, I didn't refer to "Evangelical" as in the Protestant denomination, otherwise I would have used upper-case. "evangelical" just means devoutly Christian. I should have been more clear.

I would say West Virginia is a state where it does not have the luxury to worry first and foremost about the culture wars, which tends to diminish religious political bombast. Given its dire economic position, economic issues take center stage, which is why a Democrat like Joe Manchin can still win (as he barely did in 2018) solely on an economic platform without religious shtick.

The ideal, however, is still someone in the Trump mold: appeals to Christian tradition and heritage (even if personally morally compromised), populist and authoritarian, anti-elite, economically pragmatic (or perceived to be), and supportive of social spending for his voter base only.

[jtown,man]

West Virginia is pathetic and full of a bunch of poor rednecks, screw them!

(I got that correct, right? That's what we ALL think?)

[pj3000]

Originally Posted by Manitopiaaa

I would say West Virginia is a state where it does not have the luxury to worry first and foremost about the culture wars, which tends to diminish religious political bombast. Given its dire economic position, economic issues take center stage, which is why a Democrat like Joe Manchin can still win (as he barely did in 2018) solely on an economic platform without religious shtick.

The ideal, however, is still someone in the Trump mold: appeals to Christian tradition and heritage (even if personally morally compromised), populist and authoritarian, anti-elite, economically pragmatic (or perceived to be), and supportive of social spending for his voter base only.

Talk about how you’re going to do everything to support coal (in the case of Manchin) and how wonderful and lovely coal is and how you’re going to “bring it back” (in the case of Trump) and you will get the votes needed to win. Just keep with “the good ol days” strategy. That’s the legacy of an entire state economy built upon resource extraction.

That’s the key in West Virginia, simple as that, as truly sad and pathetic as that is.

[pj3000]

Originally Posted by jtown,man

West Virginia is pathetic and full of a bunch of poor rednecks, screw them!

(I got that correct, right? That's what we ALL think?)

No, you didn’t get that correct. Not at all. That is not what we ALL think... and there is zero evidence above of that.

You took ONE person’s opinion and went all hyperbole on it.

Don’t try to derail an informed discussion to fit your agenda here.

[pj3000]

Originally Posted by Crawford

Bizarre that they believe that people aren't moving to WV because costs are too high. They really think crappier schools and public services will draw outsiders?

Yeah, if they think that people who have the types of jobs which allow them to work remotely, who might be looking for a simpler lifestyle... i.e., generally younger couples with children... will relocate for $12k and crappy public amenities, they’re nuts.

[Qubert]

Originally Posted by jmecklenborg

The eastern panhandle of WV is only 45-55 miles as the crow flies from Washington, DC. Realistically, it would still take 90 minutes to commute to an outer metro station and commute downtown, but that wouldn't be a big deal for someone who only goes in to work 2-3 times a week or month.

Once the Metro to Loudoun County VA opens I could see more folks making the drive.

[BG918]

Originally Posted by DCReid

I think Northwest AR may be more successful because it has three large employers including WalMart and their supporting industries. NW AK seems like it may be as attractive to retirees as well. Tulsa may also do okay - Elon Musk even considered it for the gigafactory, and maybe it can become more competitive in growth to OKC, which has the advantage of being the capital.

Northwest Arkansas is a very scenic area, along with Northeast Oklahoma (where Tulsa is located). Very different than the rest of their respective states with the forested hills, lakes and rivers. These are growing metro areas (Fayetteville-Bentonville has had 21% and Tulsa 7% population growth since 2010) but looking at diversifying their economies with more knowledge workers and especially remote workers. Similar in many ways to a city or state offering a company incentives but instead of companies it is individuals, and instead of governments it is private foundations.

Unlike NW Arkansas or Tulsa though most cities in WV are losing population and have a very small existing economic base. And WV, while beautiful in many parts, also is in a region that gets very cold and stays cloudy throughout the winter months.

[Centropolis]

NW arkansas and SW missouri have some mild sunbelt /retiree drivers and the winters are dry and sunny if not warm. the topography is less extreme and the geology isnt as dynamic as appalachia. the ozarks are essentially a plateau laced with forested canyons. the eastern missouri ozarks are more like appalachia with a legacy of lead mining.

[SIGSEGV]

How much tourism economy exists in West Virginia? I see there are some grand resorts like The Greenbrier in White Sulphur Springs but then I look at other towns along the Amtrak Route and they look like this: https://www.google.com/maps/@37.6745...7i13312!8i6656

I see the Cardinal stops within New River Gorge National Park in Thurmond and Prince, but it doesn't seem like a practical way to visit the park (there's nowhere to stay there or rent a car even... I guess you can bring a tent and a bike and maybe make it work?). Fayetteville nearby looks nice enough...

[pj3000]

I definitely don’t want a bunch of DC fucknuts crowding the WV wilderness areas.

And you’re definitely not taking the train to visit the New River Gorge area