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  #21  
Old Posted Dec 13, 2019, 12:08 AM
Shawn Shawn is offline
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Homer time: Boston is killing it too.

Interesting WaPo article citing a newish Brookings report:
Just 5 Metros Added 90% of All Tech Jobs Created 2005-2017

No surprises which metros they are: Boston, San Diego, San Francisco, San Jose and Seattle
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  #22  
Old Posted Dec 13, 2019, 12:10 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Shawn View Post
Homer time: Boston is killing it too.

Interesting WaPo article citing a newish Brookings report:
Just 5 Metros Added 90% of All Tech Jobs Created 2005-2017

No surprises which metros they are: Boston, San Diego, San Francisco, San Jose and Seattle
Yes, Boston is killing it.
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  #23  
Old Posted Dec 13, 2019, 1:02 AM
galleyfox galleyfox is offline
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I think the rust belt is satisfied right now with rising per capita growth. Its current demographics and housing prices just aren't going to translate into the sort of rapid GDP growth that you see on the coasts until they complete their economic restructuring over the next century.

The studies of how of the rust belt cities will grow over the coming century are pretty wild. The existing population is basically going to collapse into about 30% of the land area.

https://twitter.com/petesaunders3/st...782298117?s=20
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  #24  
Old Posted Dec 13, 2019, 2:09 AM
ChiMIchael ChiMIchael is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by galleyfox View Post
I think the rust belt is satisfied right now with rising per capita growth. Its current demographics and housing prices just aren't going to translate into the sort of rapid GDP growth that you see on the coasts until they complete their economic restructuring over the next century.

The studies of how of the rust belt cities will grow over the coming century are pretty wild. The existing population is basically going to collapse into about 30% of the land area.

https://twitter.com/petesaunders3/st...782298117?s=20
I'm not a big fan of Pete Saunders. He consistently frames his discussions very cynically. I find his viewpoint not that the Rust Belt has to right it's ship, but that it simply can't. Hence, I find that maps ridiculous as there is no city that looks like that.

I was watching a few videos about geography and economics, and the Rust Belt has a lot of feature that are envied my many countries. But it has become flyover of economic investment.

Last edited by ChiMIchael; Dec 13, 2019 at 11:26 AM.
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  #25  
Old Posted Dec 13, 2019, 4:17 PM
iheartthed iheartthed is offline
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Originally Posted by dimondpark View Post
20 Largest Metro Area(MSA) GDPs by 5-year growth.

2013-2018 Metro Area(MSA) GDP Growth:
+$332.642B New York +23.10%
+$227.308B Los Angeles +27.70%
+$165.369B San Francisco +43.14%
+$117.882B Dallas +29.87%
+$115.532B San Jose +53.61%
+$111.800B Chicago +19.35%
+$107.778B Seattle +37.91%
+$97.900B Boston +26.77%
+$97.343B Atlanta +32.45%
+$92.619B Washington +20.67%
+$69.674B Philadelphia +18.60%
+$83.263B Miami +30.67%
+$57.268B Phoenix +28.93%
+$55.012B Houston +12.98%
+$53.627B San Diego +28.00%
+$51.840B Denver +34.03%
+$50 538 Minneapolis +23.60%
+$47.886B Detroit +21.78%
+$46.783B Riverside +33.33%
+$35.070B Baltimore +20.59%
What's happening in Houston? Why is it lagging so much?
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  #26  
Old Posted Dec 13, 2019, 4:31 PM
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Those are nominal figures, not real growth. That’s probably due low oil prices.
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  #27  
Old Posted Dec 13, 2019, 5:15 PM
Obadno Obadno is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by LA21st View Post
Whoa, all the California cities are doing great.
Even Riverside.
The GDP growth and Income growth wouldn't be demonstrative of Californians problems.

In fact your issues stem from the massive wealth inequities going in California, its a two tired society like something in Latin America with the super wealthy and the poor masses with virtually no middle class.

Its not there yet but headed that way rapidly
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  #28  
Old Posted Dec 13, 2019, 5:18 PM
Obadno Obadno is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by galleyfox View Post
Unless some sort of plague wipes out a huge portion of a population that plan, while interesting, isn't going to happen. Please let me know how they intend to push people out of their single family homes and into neo-urban transit suburbs?
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  #29  
Old Posted Dec 13, 2019, 6:12 PM
Chisouthside Chisouthside is offline
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At least for the Chicago city limits the blank space already corresponds with lightly populated industrial areas or emptying out neighborhoods (Englewood), not sure with the area on the northside leading up to OHARE. I would imagine the suburban areas probably also correspond with the type of demographics who are leaving the state for service jobs and lower costs of living in other states so they are already having a drop in population density. Those areas correspond with some of the more declining suburbs.

Edit:
If anything this map seems to be a long term projection made from current demographic trends.
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  #30  
Old Posted Dec 13, 2019, 6:24 PM
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2013-2018 5-Year GDP Growth
+$357.387B New York CSA +21.73%
+$314.589B San Francisco CSA +43.85%
+$246.740B Los Angeles CSA +23.55%
+$143.330B Washington CSA +22.15%
+$127.397B Boston CSA +24.03%
+$120.268B Dallas CSA +29.37%
+$118.394B Seattle CSA +37.28%
+$113.477B Chicago CSA +19.13%
+$105.772B Atlanta CSA +32.07%
+$89.018B Miami CSA +30.29%
+$76.522B Philadelphia CSA +18.10%
+$64.235B Denver CSA +32.57%
+$59.322B Phoenix CSA +29.96%
+$56.142B Detroit CSA +21.53%
+$56.043B Houston CSA +12.99%
+$53.774B Minneapolis CSA +23.32%
+$53.627B San Diego MSA +28.00%
+$49.873B Portland CSA +33.66%
+$45.574B Orlando CSA +31.74%
+$41.708B Austin MSA +39.69%
+$41.116B Charlotte CSA +30.49%
+$39.767B Salt Lake City CSA +34.58%
+$37.278B Sacramento CSA +31.01%
+$34.437B Nashville CSA +33.81%
+$34.282B San Antonio CSA +33.87%
+$34.154B Tampa MSA +27.35%
+$32.054B Cleveland CSA +17.90%
+$30.454B Raleigh CSA +27.87%
+$30.082B Las Vegas CSA +31.99%
+$28.574B Columbus CSA +23.77%
+$26.663B Indianapolis CSA +19.91%
+$26.140B Cincinnati CSA +22.11%
+$25.210B Pittsburgh CSA +17.76%
+$23.000B Kansas City CSA +18.57%
+$20.438B St Louis CSA +13.33%
+$18.269B Milwaukee CSA +16.96%
+$13.628B Hartford CSA +12.96%
+$13.188B Virginia Beach CSA +14.37%
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  #31  
Old Posted Dec 13, 2019, 6:25 PM
LA21st LA21st is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Obadno View Post
The GDP growth and Income growth wouldn't be demonstrative of Californians problems.

In fact your issues stem from the massive wealth inequities going in California, its a two tired society like something in Latin America with the super wealthy and the poor masses with virtually no middle class.

Its not there yet but headed that way rapidly
Again, if California didn't show gains, this forum would be saying, "We told you! It's a horrible tax state!"

It cant win with you guys. Now you're making these comments cause California's doing well. Not surprised, but it is what it is.

Last edited by LA21st; Dec 13, 2019 at 6:46 PM.
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  #32  
Old Posted Dec 13, 2019, 9:20 PM
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Originally Posted by iheartthed View Post
What's happening in Houston? Why is it lagging so much?
Oil/commodity/global slowdown. Houston boomed due to the global oil industry and the promise of large scale offshore production which got killed due to shale/onshore production. Interestingly, Houston has been a counter cyclical growth story, it boomed while the US while emerging from the financial crisis.

The population growth for Houston hasn’t slowed too much.
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  #33  
Old Posted Dec 13, 2019, 11:11 PM
galleyfox galleyfox is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Obadno View Post
Unless some sort of plague wipes out a huge portion of a population that plan, while interesting, isn't going to happen. Please let me know how they intend to push people out of their single family homes and into neo-urban transit suburbs?
Mostly because this trend is already happening in real time.

Residents move or grow old and die, and they simply don't get replaced by newcomers. The rust belt doesn't have the population growth or scarcity of land that would force new residents to live in declining neighborhoods with aging housing. They would rather pay more to build up in a financially secure area than gamble on a SFH in a declining one.

The suburbs with good transit and independent commercial districts have more resources to withstand economic decline than their peers.

https://mobile.twitter.com/robparal/...03668145496064
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  #34  
Old Posted Dec 14, 2019, 12:28 AM
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Just-In-Cali Just-In-Cali is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by LA21st View Post
Again, if California didn't show gains, this forum would be saying, "We told you! It's a horrible tax state!"



It cant win with you guys. Now you're making these comments cause California's doing well. Not surprised, but it is what it is.
You are right of course...

A preconceived notion is hard to let go of, sadly.

Any other place in the world that is booming has the problems that CA has. This is not new.
But since the "CA is failing!!!" is the favorite drumbeat of boosters of other parts of the country, and conservative minded contra logic types, they wont ever just say "Yeah, CA is doing well right now. Good for them!"

TX is doing well too. Just not the gamechanger that many try to make it out to be. But healthy growth.
Other places are truly booming, Seattle being one of them. This wont last forever, and it has its growing pains that need to be addressed, but lets just call it.....CA still dominates the United States economy by an order of magnitude.
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  #35  
Old Posted Dec 14, 2019, 12:58 AM
ChiMIchael ChiMIchael is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by galleyfox View Post
Mostly because this trend is already happening in real time.

Residents move or grow old and die, and they simply don't get replaced by newcomers. The rust belt doesn't have the population growth or scarcity of land that would force new residents to live in declining neighborhoods with aging housing. They would rather pay more to build up in a financially secure area than gamble on a SFH in a declining one.

The suburbs with good transit and independent commercial districts have more resources to withstand economic decline than their peers.

https://mobile.twitter.com/robparal/...03668145496064
Is there anyway to see if this occurred anywhere else?

In most instances, depressed small towns and cities mostly just wither away, not necessarily have residents merely teeter on the their bright spots.

Either way, that map is just absolutely dishonest and irresponsible. No one knows where Chicago or any American city will be in 100 years.

Last edited by ChiMIchael; Dec 15, 2019 at 12:28 AM.
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  #36  
Old Posted Dec 14, 2019, 1:15 AM
DCReid DCReid is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Shawn View Post
Homer time: Boston is killing it too.

Interesting WaPo article citing a newish Brookings report:
Just 5 Metros Added 90% of All Tech Jobs Created 2005-2017

No surprises which metros they are: Boston, San Diego, San Francisco, San Jose and Seattle
The list does not seem right -- it must be due to what they define as tech. For example, I would think Austin would be on the list, not San Diego, and I would not think that Dallas and DC lost as many jobs as they are stating.
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  #37  
Old Posted Dec 15, 2019, 3:16 PM
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San Diego’s biotech and communications industries have grown significantly in the past 20-30 years. Not very surprising unless one only thinks of FAANG/social media as “tech”. Plus San Diego has been twice the size of Austin for much of this time until more recently when Austin has started catching up to other larger cities. Ditto for Seattle who has a comparable population to San Diego. Not to mention many of the other tech cities on the list are even larger.
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  #38  
Old Posted Dec 15, 2019, 6:19 PM
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Docta_Love Docta_Love is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by galleyfox View Post
I think the rust belt is satisfied right now with rising per capita growth. Its current demographics and housing prices just aren't going to translate into the sort of rapid GDP growth that you see on the coasts until they complete their economic restructuring over the next century.

The studies of how of the rust belt cities will grow over the coming century are pretty wild. The existing population is basically going to collapse into about 30% of the land area.

https://twitter.com/petesaunders3/st...782298117?s=20
I was having similar thoughts especially about Metro Detroit which which saw a huge surge in gdp growth in the post recession manufacturing boom years but now has stabilized to what is to be expected for a region its size, it's also the area I am the most familiar with so i'm partially extrapolating which I think is apt as Detroit is the canary in the coal mine for the Great Lakes Region. In terms of gdp growth the region has stabilized in terms of keeping up its ranking relative to population size. The legacy of manufacturing is placing the region in a position to claw back some of its lost status ie high number & % of workforce in high tech & stem related professions along some of the best with centers of higher education within a few hour drive. All & all the Chicago, Detroit & Toronto metropolitan axis or proto-megaregion is expected to become the largest in North America over the next 50-75 years. While predicting the future is one of the least profitable ventures if current trends continue to play out the tech centers of the Great Lakes ie Chicago, Detroit, Pittsburgh, Minneapolis & Toronto seem like they will ultimately be the drivers & leading beneficiaries in this long term economic restructuring trend.


Quote:
Originally Posted by TexasPlaya View Post
Oil/commodity/global slowdown. Houston boomed due to the global oil industry and the promise of large scale offshore production which got killed due to shale/onshore production. Interestingly, Houston has been a counter cyclical growth story, it boomed while the US while emerging from the financial crisis.

The population growth for Houston hasn’t slowed too much.
This is all true but you can't forget the series of multibillion dollar disasters striking the area over the past several years. Houston got absolutely hammered by hurricane Harvey not to mention a series of tropical storms causing similar or in some cases worse massive property damage due to flooding. With the refining industry clustered along the coast & coastal waterways this most important sector of the economy was hit especially hard.
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Last edited by Docta_Love; Dec 15, 2019 at 6:45 PM.
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  #39  
Old Posted Dec 15, 2019, 10:28 PM
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I'll ride the homer train too.

Sacramento's growth is impressive, though in context shouldn't be too surprising. We had a long ways to climb after the recession and there's a bit of a spillover effect from the Bay Area that happens every up-cycle. Seeing the first number with Sac in the top 25 was a welcome surprise though and may even be a first for our metro.
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  #40  
Old Posted Dec 15, 2019, 10:32 PM
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This decade has seen growth almost across the board among MSAs with GDP $50B or greater. New Orleans is the slight exception.

2010-2018 GDP Growth by MSA
(by percent)
+92.06% San Jose
+72.26% San Francisco
+63.62% Austin
+63.19% Seattle
+61.34% San Antonio
+59.31% Nashville
+56.22% Raleigh
+55.01% Charlotte
+53.07% Salt Lake City
+52.67% Denver
+51.73% Riverside
+51.32% Dallas
+50.14% Des Moines
+50.12% Orlando
+49.34% Portland
+48.71% Madison
+48.63% Sacramento
+47.82% Atlanta
+47.00% Phoenix
+45.63% San Diego
+43.55% Jacksonville
+43.15% Grand Rapids
+42.98% Miami
+42.97% Los Angeles
+42.80% Las Vegas
+41.16% Boston
+40.44% Detroit
+39.91% Tulsa
+39.33% Minneapolis
+39.12% Tampa
+38.15% Oklahoma City
+37.73% New York
+36.83% Houston
+36.33% Omaha
+36.13% Baton Rouge
+34.81% Cincinnati
+34.02% Chicago
+34.02% Honolulu
+33.55% Richmond
+33.27% Birmingham
+33.04% Kansas City
+31.96% Pittsburgh
+30.08% Philadelphia
+32.74% Louisville
+32.17% Baltimore
+30.83% Indianapolis
+30.72% Milwaukee
+30.58% Cleveland
+30.21% Durham
+29.76% Washington
+29.69% Memphis
+26.81% Albany
+26.29% Buffalo
+24.80% Providence
+22.46% St Louis
+22.16% Rochester
+18.65% Virginia Beach
+17.63% New Haven
+17.28% Hartford
+13.82% Bridgeport
-0.01% New Orleans

2010-2018 GDP Growth by MSA
(in Billions of dollars)
+$485.542B New York
+$314.915B Los Angeles
+$230.145B San Francisco
+$175.038B Chicago
+$173.823B Dallas
+$158.675B San Jose
+$151.814B Seattle
+$135.182B Boston
+$128.896B Houston
+$128.525B Atlanta
+$124.031B Washington
+$106.636B Miami
+$102.709B Philadelphia
+$80 420B Phoenix
+$77.097B Detroit
+$76.819B San Diego
+$74.441B Minneapolis
+$73.885B Denver
+$63.794B Riverside
+$60.285B Charlotte
+$57.074B Austin
+$54.329B Portland
+$50.810B San Antonio
+$49.969B Baltimore
+$49.222B Nashville
+$47.602B Sacramento
+$46.492B Orlando
+$44.713B Tampa
+$39.258B Columbus
+$37.021B Pittsburgh
+$36.695B Las Vegas
+$36.422B Cincinnati
+$33.006B Indianapolis
+$32.959B Kansas City
+$32.700B Salt Lake City
+$31.895B Cleveland
+$31.160B St Louis
+$30.010B Raleigh
+$25.238B Jacksonville
+$25.084B Milwaukee
+$22.376B Oklahoma City
+$21.556B Richmond
+$18.573B Grand Rapids
+$18.458B Louisville
+$17.581B Honolulu
+$17.572B Memphis
+$17.372B Providence
+$16.873B Madison
+$16.728B Omaha
+$16.811B Des Moines
+$16.328B Tulsa
+$15.968B Birmingham
+$15.873B Virginia Beach
+$14.947B Baton Rouge
+$14.659B Hartford
+$14.616B Oxnard
+$14.363B Buffalo
+$12.688B Durham
+$12.613B Albany
+$11.588B Rochester
+$10.859B Bridgeport
+$8.038B New Haven
-$0.132B New Orleans
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