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  #1  
Old Posted Oct 9, 2016, 10:09 PM
RST500 RST500 is offline
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James Howard Kunstler's argument against skyscrapers

http://www.starktruthradio.com/?p=2655


James Howard Kunstler is a major critic of the auto dependent suburban model, however he does not see the skyscraper as a viable model. Instead he favors medium density "European" style urbanism. His reasoning is that Skyscrapers will be expensive to retrofit as natural resources become scarce in the future. He also predicts massive power outages that will cause problems for skyscrapers. I know there have been proposals for skyscrapers that are self sustainable and ecologically sustainable but they are costly to build and there isn't the political will. Don't get me wrong I'm a big fan of skyscrapers but he does bring up some interesting points.
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  #2  
Old Posted Oct 9, 2016, 10:32 PM
ChargerCarl ChargerCarl is offline
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European cities are, IMO, inferior to Japanese cities in their built form. Their broad, rather than peaky density leads to relatively poorer use of their mass transit systems.





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  #3  
Old Posted Oct 9, 2016, 10:42 PM
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Kunstler is an idiot. That's all you need to know.
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  #4  
Old Posted Oct 9, 2016, 10:55 PM
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does he still live in upstate new york and drive around in a beat up audi, giving people the finger?

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  #5  
Old Posted Oct 10, 2016, 3:14 AM
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Provide plenty of both, skyscrapers and midrises, and let people decide for themselves where they want to live and work.
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  #6  
Old Posted Oct 10, 2016, 6:56 PM
RST500 RST500 is offline
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He likes the original skyscrapers such as the Singer Building. For some reason he is not crazy about anything built after 1930. His main argument which hasn't been addressed is not aesthetics, but that Skyscrapers will be expensive to retrofit in the future when we run out of natural resources such as steel and sheet metal, which involves massive mining operations. Did they early skyscrapers use steel in their frames? He also predicts massive power outages in the future.

http://www.starktruthradio.com/?p=2655
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  #7  
Old Posted Oct 10, 2016, 7:03 PM
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Oh, then we should try to densify as much as possible so we can live within walking distance and serve everything efficiently with transit, right? Highrises then?
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  #8  
Old Posted Oct 10, 2016, 7:12 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by RST500 View Post
He likes the original skyscrapers such as the Singer Building. For some reason he is not crazy about anything built after 1930. His main argument which hasn't been addressed is not aesthetics, but that Skyscrapers will be expensive to retrofit in the future when we run out of natural resources such as steel and sheet metal, which involves massive mining operations. Did they early skyscrapers use steel in their frames? He also predicts massive power outages in the future.

http://www.starktruthradio.com/?p=2655
Would steel really be needed to retrofit skyscrapers? I don't think people would bother replacing the structural components of skyscrapers once those reach the end of their life expectancy (which is probably not for a long long time?). It's more about replacing windows, cleaning off the soot, maybe fixing up the cladding?

I also don't understand why he thinks midrises will do so much better when most of them are essentially built the same way. Plus elevators are pretty energy efficient. And steel is one of the last things we'll run out of, the supply of oil, natural gas, uranium, copper and many other metals will most likely run low sooner.
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  #9  
Old Posted Oct 10, 2016, 8:04 PM
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once we learn how to harvest asteroids, our species will have all the metals we could ever possibly want.

it sounds super sci-fi-ish, but it might not be all that terribly far away, probably within the next 100 years, by my best guess.
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  #10  
Old Posted Oct 10, 2016, 10:29 PM
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Originally Posted by Steely Dan View Post
once we learn how to harvest asteroids, our species will have all the metals we could ever possibly want.

it sounds super sci-fi-ish, but it might not be all that terribly far away, probably within the next 100 years, by my best guess.
You're not going to mine asteroids for steel though - too much trouble.
Although we may very well start running low on iron ore for steel in 100 years, at least iron ore that's reasonably cheap to extract and turn into steel.

As for the various metals used as alloys in steel, I don't know enough about materials science and civil engineering to say which ones are really essential and which alloy metals we can do without.

Copper is one metal that is being consumed (mined) at a quite high rate (relative to reserves) despite high rates of recycling and there isn't much copper in asteroids.
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  #11  
Old Posted Oct 10, 2016, 11:27 PM
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Iron is the 4th most abundant element in the earth's crust, comprising 4.6% of its mass. To say we would "run out" of it would mean we would turn 4% or more of the earth's crust into steel for skyscrapers, which isn't going to happen. Unless we turn earth into Coruscant.
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  #12  
Old Posted Oct 11, 2016, 1:43 AM
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He's probably right that Parisian-style density is healthier and more sustainable in any number of ways, but it's a marginal difference that doesn't really matter. His attacks on skyscrapers never seemed genuine to me. I think he just like small towns and looks for arguments against anything that isn't what he likes.
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  #13  
Old Posted Oct 11, 2016, 2:23 AM
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Originally Posted by James Bond Agent 007 View Post
Iron is the 4th most abundant element in the earth's crust, comprising 4.6% of its mass. To say we would "run out" of it would mean we would turn 4% or more of the earth's crust into steel for skyscrapers, which isn't going to happen. Unless we turn earth into Coruscant.
Yeah, it's not that we'll run out, it's about whether or not we'll have problems with mining iron from rocks that have lower grades of iron, or from which it takes more energy to separate the iron from the other elements it's bonded to.

Most iron in the earth's crust is in silicate minerals like pyroxene and amphibole but at current prices it's far from worth it to extract from these minerals. That means iron prices will have to go up significantly if we run out of currently economic iron ore. Switching to mining rocks that are 4% iron means something like a 15 fold decrease in ore grade. But iron is still dirt cheap, I'd be more worried about shortages of the stuff we need to produce energy ie fossil fuels, uranium, and various metals needed for renewable energy production, batteries, etc; as well as resources needed to produce food like water, energy for fertilizers and machinery, soils that are getting depleted...
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  #14  
Old Posted Oct 11, 2016, 1:31 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by RST500 View Post
He likes the original skyscrapers such as the Singer Building. For some reason he is not crazy about anything built after 1930. His main argument which hasn't been addressed is not aesthetics, but that Skyscrapers will be expensive to retrofit in the future when we run out of natural resources such as steel and sheet metal, which involves massive mining operations. Did they early skyscrapers use steel in their frames? He also predicts massive power outages in the future.

http://www.starktruthradio.com/?p=2655
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  #15  
Old Posted Oct 11, 2016, 1:33 PM
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As a "built form" I'm inclined to agree. But European cities can and do have skyscrapers. The key is avoiding curb cuts or "tower in a park" built forms.
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  #16  
Old Posted Oct 11, 2016, 2:52 PM
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That's key with European-style midrises too.

Of course the ratios need to be better with highrises, and they often are, aided by location. I'd concede that a 1 space per 1,000 sf ratio with a highrise still means twice as many cars on one block than a 2 per 1,000 sf ratio with a lowrise a quarter the size. But the highrise still means less traffic per worker in that scenario. (Of course even the 2/1,000 is better than a 5/1,000 ratio in the worst suburbs.)
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  #17  
Old Posted Oct 11, 2016, 4:00 PM
ChargerCarl ChargerCarl is offline
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Europe's built form is largely the result of preservation though. The US doesn't have any 500 year old structures to preserve, so I don't see why we should model ourselves after Europe when their urban form leads to worse transit utilization and walkability than Japanese cities.
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  #18  
Old Posted Oct 11, 2016, 4:07 PM
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The Vancouver style of high-rise development is skinny towers that are set upon low-rise or mid-rise podiums, which allows high rises to be built while maintaining a low-rise or mid-rise character at street level. So there is no choice needed between high-rise and mid-rise or even low-rise, at least not in Vancouver and the cities that emulate it.
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  #19  
Old Posted Oct 13, 2016, 1:48 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ChargerCarl View Post
Europe's built form is largely the result of preservation though. The US doesn't have any 500 year old structures to preserve, so I don't see why we should model ourselves after Europe when their urban form leads to worse transit utilization and walkability than Japanese cities.
You've made this argument twice, but I don't buy it. The chart you posted doesn't show a trend line, nor does it provide an average for each grouping.

To my eye, it looks like European and Japanese cities (strange to compare a continent with one country) are generally comparable, with only maybe a slight edge to Japan. Possibly that's due to the mountainous terrain of Japan which forces cities to be relatively compact relative to Europe.

The only thing your chart demonstrates clearly is that
A) North American cities underperform, and
B) each grouping has one or two massive outliers that throw off the average (I assume New York, Tokyo, London).
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  #20  
Old Posted Oct 13, 2016, 2:03 AM
ChargerCarl ChargerCarl is offline
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I'll quote the source:

Quote:
One of the impacts this has is on transit use of rapid transit lines. The Japanese system tends to gather density around subway lines, so as subways are built, they tend to attract development to maximize the subway line use. In Europe and North America, this attraction is much less present and tend to be the exception (like the Rosslyn-Ballston corridor in Arlington and the "City Centers" strategy in Toronto of building city centers around subway stations in the suburbs, both of which are planning efforts to do what the Japanese spontaneously do when they have a subway line). Old, dense European cities also offer great potential for rapid transit, but this is piggybacking on ancient density, and so the potential of these networks to expand is relatively weak.

We can notice here that all Japanese subway systems have at least 4 million passengers per km of track, and Tokyo Metro is way up there at 12. European subway systems are all over the map, with those of Paris, Rome and Milan getting exceedingly high ridership per km of track, Rome and Milan despite having very small systems, probably reflective of the very dense old urban cores of these cities. However, many European cities perform relatively poorly, with at least 33% less ridership than equivalent Japanese systems, and that despite the fact that Japanese subway systems are much more expensive for the end-user than the subsidized European systems (Japanese subway systems are profitable, not so for European systems). How much more used would the Japanese systems be if people could buy a 80$-100$ monthly pass that would give them unlimited rides across the network like they do on most European and North American systems? (Most Japanese subway systems have unlimited one-day passes for 8 to 10$, which seems to be the only way of getting unlimited rides across the network, there are commuter passes, but, get this, they only work between two given stations, get one station further out and you have to pay)

North American subways are even worse, and I did not add LRT systems which on average have only 0,5 million passengers per km of track (Calgary and Edmonton top out at about 1,55). In fact, it's interesting to point out that North American subway systems, where they exist, are no less developed than most European systems. The issue with most of them isn't that they are not developed enough, but that land use around the areas they serve leads to sub-optimal use of the lines that exist. Special mentions for Chicago and Atlanta which both have very long networks yet very poor performance, at the level of LRT systems.

European subway systems that leave the old urban core also offer relatively poor performance, London's system being one of the most developed in the world, yet its performance per kilometer is middling at best, being inferior to essentially all Japanese systems and equal or inferior to many American systems (New York, Toronto, Montréal and Boston).

All in all, it means quite a few American and European cities should be trying to reform land use to make better use of what rapid transit they have before thinking of investing billions into adding new lines or extending them further.

The chaos of Japanese cities also show positive results in terms of car mileage. Even when the Japanese use cars to get around, the proximity of density to jobs and services mean that people can use them less.

Thus, the average car travels 20 000 kilometers in the United States, around 13 000 miles, but only 10 000 km (6 500 miles) in Japan. Europe is in the middle. Truth be told, Japan has a further advantage that on long-distance trips, it is often better to take trains, that are faster, affordable and connect well the country, whereas in North America and even Europe, traveling long distances is more likely to be done in cars. Still, the fact that Japan can do it is often due to density, and thus locations of interest, being built near train stations.

Another criterion to judge cities on is the active transport mode share, the percentage of all trips made by residents taking place on a bike or on foot.

Overall, both Japanese and European cities enable active transport thanks to density and proximity, but there is more variation among European cities, whereas Japanese cities all tend to be between 30 and 40%, some European cities reach a low of around 20%. And of course, it's a complete disaster in the North American cities, where decent levels of active transportation in some central neighborhoods get totally drowned by the deserts of sprawl all around them. Use separation is the crucial aspect that kills the potential for active transport.
http://urbankchoze.blogspot.com/2014...-japanese.html
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