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  #61  
Old Posted Jul 19, 2018, 8:25 PM
Obadno Obadno is offline
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Originally Posted by JManc View Post
Wages have stagnated. My stepfather paid $80,000 for our 4 bedroom house back in the 80's. This was an area where cops drove Volvo's and there was a country club with golf courses. He made about $50k at the time (which was pretty good for the era). His salary was well over half the cost of the house.

Today, that salary equates to about $118k but a comparable house in a comparable neighborhood would be around $300k. Roughly 2.5x his salary.



Yes, there are a lot of moving parts in the housing market but Denver is $$ because people want to live there. The city is booming, it's cosmopolitan, has a vibrant economy and it has the Rockies.
These are two different conversations here.

Is the price of housing way higher than it used to be compared to incomes; yes

are homes overvalued; generally speaking not at the moment.

But you must keep in mind that there are a number of factors that go into the cost of home vs income. Doesn't account for the fact that average homes have changed in size, quality, materials, the cost of other consumer goods of collapsed like electronics and food relative to income.

And you cant consider your anecdotal experience as the overall national health, Chicago area housing has been very stagnant in my opinion, but Chicago isn't growing like western cities so the value of housing hasn't gone up as much.

but yeah these are two separate things.
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  #62  
Old Posted Jul 19, 2018, 8:28 PM
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Originally Posted by Centropolis View Post
tons of urban construction, job growth, transit mega-projects...it's really being fueled by educated millennials pouring into the city and people cashing out of coastal markets and not just a pre-great recession housing bubble..
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  #63  
Old Posted Jul 19, 2018, 8:29 PM
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Originally Posted by JManc View Post
Yes, there are a lot of moving parts in the housing market but Denver is $$ because people want to live there. The city is booming, it's cosmopolitan, has a vibrant economy and it has the Rockies.
Mounds of dirt don't drive growth or wealth (unless they got some resources in them), lets get that out of the way.

Houston and Dallas are just as attractive, cosmopolitan and vibrant when looking at the stats yet have none of the things armchair internet population/investment/urbanization experts want to put on a pedestal.
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  #64  
Old Posted Jul 19, 2018, 8:29 PM
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Originally Posted by jd3189 View Post
Sorry if this gets some Denver residents riled up, but aside from the outdoor activities of the Rockies and maybe a growing tech center, what's so great about Denver that is rising home prices there?
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  #65  
Old Posted Jul 19, 2018, 8:35 PM
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I'm curious to know where some of you guys grew up where housing prices were in that fairly low range...

In 1974, my parents bought their first starter house in the Miracle Mile District of Los Angeles, for around $35,000, a 3-bedroom 2-bath Spanish-style bungalow that was built in the 1920s. Lots of character... as a small child, I remember some of the built-ins, and the arched doorways. According to Zillow, that same house is worth $1.4 million now. When I told my parents that, they were dumbfounded. "For that old piece of crap???" my father said.

In 1978, we moved to the 'burbs (Cerritos), and my parents bought a then-new 2-story 4 bedroom house for $108,000 (the house I grew up in, and the one my parents continue to live in, which they paid off many years ago now). Before the 2008 crash, it was valued at over $700,000. Immediately after the crash, it went down to about $580,000. It's about $650,000 now.

I'm wondering if the over-inflated prices of housing in California is due to Prop. 13.
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Last edited by sopas ej; Jul 19, 2018 at 8:57 PM.
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  #66  
Old Posted Jul 19, 2018, 8:38 PM
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Originally Posted by The North One View Post
Mounds of dirt don't drive growth or wealth (unless they got some resources in them), lets get that out of the way.

Houston and Dallas are just as attractive, cosmopolitan and vibrant when looking at the stats yet have none of the things armchair internet population/investment/urbanization experts want to put on a pedestal.
Compared to Austin, Houston or Dallas are not as attractive. People want to live in Austin. They move to Houston and Dallas for more practical reasons...like career, cost of living and so on. The cities that are expensive are so because they are in demand. People say "I would love to live in Seattle or San Francisco" but how often do people say, "I would love to live in Houston"? All these cities have vibrant healthy economies and lot's of options but not all of them are "it" cities..if this makes any sense.
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  #67  
Old Posted Jul 19, 2018, 8:47 PM
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I bought a crappy post-war townhouse with garage in Williamsburg, Brooklyn in the early 2000s for $340k. It’ll go for around $1.1M today. Ridiculous, I would never pay that much for it... can’t believe I ever took out a mortgage at the $340k price for the piece of crap in a crappy part of east wmsburg. But someone will. Two in the same row have already gone for 1.1M and 1.2M
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  #68  
Old Posted Jul 19, 2018, 8:50 PM
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Originally Posted by JManc View Post
. . . People say "I would love to live in Seattle or San Francisco" but how often do people say, "I would love to live in Houston"?
Or Phoenix

. . .
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  #69  
Old Posted Jul 19, 2018, 8:57 PM
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Originally Posted by sopas ej View Post
I'm curious to know where some of you guys grew up where housing prices were in that fairly low range...
in my parents' case, it was wilmette, IL (northshore chicago burb).

the house was a cute little 3-bed/1 bath craftsman bungalow built in 1914. it had good detailing throughout (crown moldings in all rooms, fully cased doors and windows, nicely-detailed brick fireplace in living room, leaded glass windows in living room, beautiful built-in buffet in dining room, etc.). one of the catches is that it still had its original and tiny 1914 kitchen in 1976.

wilmette, as part of the northshore, has always been an in-demand area in chicagoland, but my dad said that back in the '70s the older eastern half of wilmette was really starting to show its age. houses were reaching that 50-60 year old timespan with lots of general wear and tear, a lot of deferred maintenance/updating, and they just generally didn't appeal to typical 1970s tastes.

so my folks were able to snap that bungalow up for a song, and then over the course of 2.5 decades of living in it, as older pre-war housing with all of its charm and character fell back into fashion, wilmette came roaring back as one of THE suburban communities to live in for professionals looking for something more than generic suburbia. and my lucky-ass parents got to go along for the ride.
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Last edited by Steely Dan; Jul 19, 2018 at 9:55 PM.
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  #70  
Old Posted Jul 19, 2018, 9:10 PM
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Originally Posted by Tom In Chicago View Post
Or Phoenix

. . .
I already told you Tom!!
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  #71  
Old Posted Jul 19, 2018, 9:20 PM
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Originally Posted by The North One View Post
Mounds of dirt don't drive growth or wealth (unless they got some resources in them), lets get that out of the way.

Houston and Dallas are just as attractive, cosmopolitan and vibrant when looking at the stats yet have none of the things armchair internet population/investment/urbanization experts want to put on a pedestal.
They have very cheap land, very cheap labor, very easy entitlements...

In a growing city, prices tend to reflect development costs.
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  #72  
Old Posted Jul 19, 2018, 9:43 PM
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Originally Posted by Tom In Chicago View Post
Or Phoenix

. . .
Are you an actual moderator?
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  #73  
Old Posted Jul 20, 2018, 1:10 AM
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Originally Posted by Sun Belt View Post
I don't disagree with your point of view and/but I'm a tad bit older [damn that sucks] than you.

My point of view is a bit different though. I remember being glued to CNBC and discussing the happenings with coworkers in 2007 that ultimately lead up to the collapse in 2008. In 2007 we were discussing gold and OIL [without considering anything else]. Fast forward to 2018 and what is of most concern, another fossil fuel called Natural Gas -- that's another discussion though.

Many stories during those times were trying to claim the slight pullback in real estate is a "rare opportunity to get in now!"

Nobody in 2007 could have ever predicted what was about to happen in 2008, especially in the Phoenix metro area. That was the worst depression in the history of PHX, much worse than the Great Depression, the only thing that rivals it is the savings and loan scandal of the 1980s.
My point of pride in my family is that when I was in 12th grade I was watching House Hunters with my mom and I saw a dump in LA sale for like 700k and I'll never forget saying "this just can't keep going like this, its not possible." and BOOM a bust. I predicted it. Anyone with any sense predicted this in one way or another. Simple math predicted this. Incomes predicted this.

But yeah, I predicted the collapse lol
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  #74  
Old Posted Jul 20, 2018, 1:22 AM
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Housing prices as a ratio to incomes are VERY different from one city to the next, and that can be effectively permanent. The San Francisco area has had a high ratio for decades.

Some huge differences: 1. In some cities, people have always been willing to pay a larger percentage of their income, due to desire, other costs being lower (no car needed in some places), etc. 2. Local incomes are obviously only one factor in people's ability to buy...some people move to town or invest in town etc. 3. The percentage who are in the ownership market varies a lot by city...particularly the percentage who are buying/selling at a given time, which controls the price.
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  #75  
Old Posted Jul 20, 2018, 3:53 AM
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Originally Posted by Steely Dan View Post
in my parents' case, it was wilmette, IL (northshore chicago burb).

the house was a cute little 3-bed/1 bath craftsman bungalow built in 1914. it had good detailing throughout (crown moldings in all rooms, fully cased doors and windows, nicely-detailed brick fireplace in living room, leaded glass windows in living room, beautiful built-in buffet in dining room, etc.). one of the catches is that it still had its original and tiny 1914 kitchen in 1976.

wilmette, as part of the northshore, has always been an in-demand area in chicagoland, but my dad said that back in the '70s the older eastern half of wilmette was really starting to show its age. houses were reaching that 50-60 year old timespan with lots of general wear and tear, a lot of deferred maintenance/updating, and they just generally didn't appeal to typical 1970s tastes.

so my folks were able to snap that bungalow up for a song, and then over the course of 2.5 decades of living in it, as older pre-war housing with all of its charm and character fell back into fashion, wilmette came roaring back as one of THE suburban communities to live in for professionals looking for something more than generic suburbia. and my lucky-ass parents got to go along for the ride.
That's great that your parents stayed in that bungalow. I wish my parents had kept that Miracle Mile house in LA, being that it's worth way more now than when we lived there in the mid-70s. It's in such a prime location, too, and now with the Metro Purple Line subway being extended west on Wilshire Blvd., it's gonna be a really handy neighborhood for sure.
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  #76  
Old Posted Jul 20, 2018, 4:19 AM
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Originally Posted by The North One View Post
Mounds of dirt don't drive growth or wealth (unless they got some resources in them), lets get that out of the way.

Houston and Dallas are just as attractive, cosmopolitan and vibrant when looking at the stats yet have none of the things armchair internet population/investment/urbanization experts want to put on a pedestal.
Denver and the entire State of Colorado is very desirable to a lot of people including myself. The beauty, progressiveness, forwardness and year round recreation opportunities... the appeals are never ending. Man, I sure as hell get the appeal. I would love to live there and so would many people. I hear people say all the time they would love to live in Denver. Some cities you'll never hear that.
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  #77  
Old Posted Jul 20, 2018, 4:38 AM
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Denver and the entire State of Colorado is very desirable to a lot of people including myself. The beauty, progressiveness, forwardness and year round recreation opportunities... the appeals are never ending. Man, I sure as hell get the appeal. I would love to live there and so would many people. I hear people say all the time they would love to live in Denver. Some cities you'll never hear that.
I’ve been to Denver 4 times. Like it... but don’t love it. Not by a long shot. Really enjoyed hiking, camping, biking, etc. in the Rockies, drinking lots of good beer, and being able to pop into a store and buy good weed. The food scene was pretty delish too. But I definitely didn’t think downtown Denver was anything that great... felt a bit like downtown Dallas to me... big buildings, no real street vibrancy to speak of aside from that pedestrian/shuttle mall thing, not that walkable or connected to residential neighborhoods.

And it just felt, well... very white... like all people in some form of Patagonia gear white. Annoyingly white... like it was some sort of joke almost.
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  #78  
Old Posted Jul 20, 2018, 4:43 AM
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I never thought of Colorado being that progressive of a state; I guess because of Colorado Springs. I've heard that city is very conservative; in fact, isn't it where that awful group "Focus On the Family" is headquartered?
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  #79  
Old Posted Jul 20, 2018, 4:48 AM
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Originally Posted by sopas ej View Post
I never thought of Colorado being that progressive of a state; I guess because of Colorado Springs. I've heard that city is very conservative; in fact, isn't it where that awful group "Focus On the Family" is headquartered?
It’s where the USAF Academy is and they’re about the biggest bunch of God-complex-having ultra conservative weirdos as you can find anywhere.
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  #80  
Old Posted Jul 20, 2018, 5:08 AM
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It has a lot to do with the fact that the city is now just starting to develop in a big way since historically Denver has always been a small, young frontier city. Other parts of the country (south and west) are now having their moment and benefiting from trends/patterns/government investment (which inflate values)then there really being anything special about Denver or Austin, etc.

Denver sprawls like crazy though so I'm not sure why it's more expensive than say Houston or Dallas.
Every metro in America sprawls like crazy including Chicago and Detroit Additionally, Denver was the 25th largest city in 1900 larger than Houston, Dallas, Atlanta, Los Angeles, Seattle, Portland, San Diego, Columbus, and many others and does have a lot of 19th Century architecture.


People pay more for what is considered desirable whether it is a clothing, a car, a neighborhood or even a city to live in. I think it is fair to say Denver would likely poll better as a desired place to live than Houston or Dallas. Denver is like San Diego, LA, Portland, Seattle and San Francisco in that they're all really desirable places to live to many people and people move to these cities despite being more expensive because they want to live there. People move out of these cities when they're priced out and end up in another city out of financial necessity or because their employer picked up and moved to the cheaper cities.
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