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  #21  
Old Posted Feb 13, 2015, 6:25 PM
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Originally Posted by Surrealplaces View Post
Calgary and Edmonton stand to do very well in the coming years and here's why....


Growth for cities in general is made up from two things,
-Migration (International and inter-provincial)
-Natural Increase

Migration to a city is typically caused by two things....jobs, and for international migration, relatives/friends/sponsors

The job situation might not look good now, but even in a down cycle there are jobs out there, but most importantly job creation will come back with a vengeance at some point, and inter-provincial migration will explode again.

International immigration is somewhat tied to jobs, but also tied to other factors....existing relatives, friends and sponsors. Cities like Calgary and Edmonton have both been increasing their immigrant populations, and with that they are also increasing their potential for future immigrants.

And of course there is good old' natural increase' Calgary is tops in the country on a percentage basis, and Edmonton is second. This will bode well for increases in both cities.
Isn't there also a spike in the natural increase post economic dip? Due to the extra free time?
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  #22  
Old Posted Feb 13, 2015, 7:52 PM
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Isn't there also a spike in the natural increase post economic dip? Due to the extra free time?
Never thought of that!
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  #23  
Old Posted Feb 13, 2015, 7:58 PM
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Isn't there also a spike in the natural increase post economic dip? Due to the extra free time?
Don't forget, we have a particularly high concentration of mormons (relative to other Canadian cities).
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  #24  
Old Posted Feb 14, 2015, 12:18 AM
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As posted in the Canada section, http://skyscraperpage.com/forum/show...26#post6915026



Source of data (please correct me if I typed something wrong above)
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^click to expand
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  #25  
Old Posted Feb 15, 2015, 8:25 AM
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TransCanada, great work on the tables you've presented in the Canada section over the past week. Greatly appreciated! The projections are really cool too
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  #26  
Old Posted Feb 15, 2015, 9:17 PM
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Calgary will pass Vancouver when that mega earthquake hits
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  #27  
Old Posted Feb 20, 2015, 12:46 AM
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I didn't post this in the Canada section for obvious reasons. I made up a very loose projection, but a roughly likely scenario for the short term of the medium three based on data from StatCan...

Actual 3-year growth:
(yearly average)

Calgary - 142 200 (47 200)
Edmonton - 122 300 (40 800)
Ottawa - 47 900 (16 000)


Projected 6-year growth:

Calgary - 284 400
Edmonton - 244 600
Ottawa - 95 800


Actual 2014 population:

Calgary - 1 406 700
Edmonton - 1 328 300
Ottawa - 1 318 100


Projected 2020 population:
(approx. margin of error)

Calgary - 1 691 100 (1 640 000 - 1 730 000)
Edmonton - 1 572 900 (1 520 000 - 1 610 000)
Ottawa - 1 413 900 (1 400 000 - 1 430 000)
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  #28  
Old Posted Feb 20, 2015, 5:21 PM
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Interesting. I think we will actually exceed those numbers for 6 year growth even with this latest downturn. If we add Foothills MD to the CMA it'll be another 67-75K added.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Chadillaccc View Post
I didn't post this in the Canada section for obvious reasons. I made up a very loose projection, but a roughly likely scenario for the short term of the medium three based on data from StatCan...

Actual 3-year growth:
(yearly average)

Calgary - 142 200 (47 200)
Edmonton - 122 300 (40 800)
Ottawa - 47 900 (16 000)


Projected 6-year growth:

Calgary - 284 400
Edmonton - 244 600
Ottawa - 95 800


Actual 2014 population:

Calgary - 1 406 700
Edmonton - 1 328 300
Ottawa - 1 318 100


Projected 2020 population:
(approx. margin of error)

Calgary - 1 691 100 (1 640 000 - 1 730 000)
Edmonton - 1 572 900 (1 520 000 - 1 610 000)
Ottawa - 1 413 900 (1 400 000 - 1 430 000)
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  #29  
Old Posted Feb 20, 2015, 6:51 PM
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Those numbers looks pretty optimistic to me, estimating 30k/year growth for the metro for a couple years with the downturn. Once they add the MD of Foothills that'll be a big one time boost plus 2000 - 3000 per year additional growth boost.
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  #30  
Old Posted Feb 20, 2015, 7:17 PM
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I think 1.7 in 6 years is definitely doable even with the downturn. The thing that is most depressing is that 2020 is only 5 years away. Damn that seems like a big number. I feel so old.
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  #31  
Old Posted Feb 21, 2015, 7:39 PM
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I think it is too. No one thought we'd be at 1.4 million by 2014 back in 2010 when the oil crash was at its worst here.
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  #32  
Old Posted Mar 7, 2015, 8:47 AM
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If I had to guess the Population of our Municipality Right Now I'd say: 1,230,894
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  #33  
Old Posted Mar 7, 2015, 5:19 PM
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If I had to guess the Population of our Municipality Right Now I'd say: 1,230,894
I would guess it would be close to that. The results are a ways away yet, but I'm going with 1, 225,000
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  #34  
Old Posted Mar 7, 2015, 7:11 PM
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I would guess it would be close to that. The results are a ways away yet, but I'm going with 1, 225,000
Yeah, could see that. Think the census results are as at April 1st. So first half of this census period prob kept around the 38k/yr pace, second half maybe 20k, if that. Hard to say. Where the growth has taken place within the city has def changed a lot over the past few years though. Can really tell in the day to day. The inner city in general consistently feels a lot busier than prior years both in vehicle and pedestrian traffic.
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  #35  
Old Posted Mar 8, 2015, 12:37 AM
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Originally Posted by Surrealplaces View Post
I would guess it would be close to that. The results are a ways away yet, but I'm going with 1, 225,000
Yeah I probably have it a bit higher, based on what I think the average growth is, but it might be a bit lower just because of the Oil & Gas thing.
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  #36  
Old Posted Mar 8, 2015, 4:45 PM
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I was talking to my brother in law yesterday who a banker and deals with a lot of reports and forecasts. It sounds like this year's growth won't be much lower than last year's. Year over year are about the same as they were last year at this time.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Spring2008 View Post
Yeah, could see that. Think the census results are as at April 1st. So first half of this census period prob kept around the 38k/yr pace, second half maybe 20k, if that. Hard to say. Where the growth has taken place within the city has def changed a lot over the past few years though. Can really tell in the day to day. The inner city in general consistently feels a lot busier than prior years both in vehicle and pedestrian traffic.
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Yeah I probably have it a bit higher, based on what I think the average growth is, but it might be a bit lower just because of the Oil & Gas thing.
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  #37  
Old Posted Mar 9, 2015, 1:36 AM
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Originally Posted by Surrealplaces View Post
I was talking to my brother in law yesterday who a banker and deals with a lot of reports and forecasts. It sounds like this year's growth won't be much lower than last year's. Year over year are about the same as they were last year at this time.
If that's true then I think that I'm fairly Accurate & I am happy about that!
Lets Hope on April 1st I got close!
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  #38  
Old Posted Mar 10, 2015, 3:15 AM
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Originally Posted by Surrealplaces View Post
I was talking to my brother in law yesterday who a banker and deals with a lot of reports and forecasts. It sounds like this year's growth won't be much lower than last year's. Year over year are about the same as they were last year at this time.
Fantastic news. If that holds up, Metro Calgary will be past 1.5 million by 2017, 1.7 million by census 2021.
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  #39  
Old Posted Mar 10, 2015, 3:22 AM
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Fantastic news. If that holds up, Metro Calgary will be past 1.5 million by 2017, 1.7 million by census 2021.
Yeah your right! I am hopping even before that if we can Hit 1,450,000 at somepoint before the midway mark of this year (I think we are not even that far from there right now we are nearly about 1,440,000 for CMA I think).
So we can have a solid 12 Month Growth of 50k & just manage to crack 1.5 for the Metro for the next year Federal Census Count, that way I know the Region can crack 1.6 Million Mid to late 2016.
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  #40  
Old Posted Mar 20, 2015, 7:46 AM
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In other news, Alberta is now less than 500 000 behind British Columbia as of the latest federal population estimates. With the slowdown though, AB probably won't overtake BC until the mid 2020s now.
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