2014 Civic Census

[Surrealplaces]

It's that time of year again. The census people stopped by here today to collect their info.

Any guesses on how much of an increase we will see? I think we will see a bit more of an increase compared to last year (increase of 29,327). I'm going with an increase of 33K for total population of 1,182,000.

[RicoLance21]

Originally Posted by Surrealplaces

It's that time of year again. The census people stopped by here today to collect their info.

Any guesses on how much of an increase we will see? I think we will see a bit more of an increase compared to last year (increase of 29,327). I'm going with an increase of 33K for total population of 1,182,000.

I think it will be lower. Oil and gas job vacancies are not as abundant. I am going with an increase of 25000.

[Surrealplaces]

Originally Posted by RicoLance21

I think it will be lower. Oil and gas job vacancies are not as abundant. I am going with an increase of 25000.

Hard to say. Housing starts are quite a bit higher YTD, over the previous year. Even though many of houses are only started and not completed, it often reflects the population growth. It'll be interesting to see.

[Chadillaccc]

Judging by the provincial growth being higher this year than last by nearly 10 000, I think the city population growth will be a bit higher than last year, so I agree with Surreal. Pretty cool to think by 2015 the city will be 1.2 million, with a metro of nearly 1.5 million (over 1.5 with Okotoks and Foothills included)

[Wigs]

2014 City of Calgary population guesstimate: 1,181,136

[RicoLance21]

Originally Posted by Surrealplaces

Hard to say. Housing starts are quite a bit higher YTD, over the previous year. Even though many of houses are only started and not completed, it often reflects the population growth. It'll be interesting to see.

I hope you are right. My concern is the housing prices as to whether the recent spike is caused by sheer growth or investors looking to hold and sit vacant like what is happening in Vancouver. Nobody likes to see the latter part happening, of course.

[Fuzz]

Originally Posted by WIGS

2014 City of Calgary population guesstimate: 1,181,136

1,181,137

Price is Right rules.

[Spring2008]

Originally Posted by Surrealplaces

It's that time of year again. The census people stopped by here today to collect their info.

Any guesses on how much of an increase we will see? I think we will see a bit more of an increase compared to last year (increase of 29,327). I'm going with an increase of 33K for total population of 1,182,000.

33,001 .

Would go higher, but the surrounding suburbs are seeing record growth these days.

[Surrealplaces]

Originally Posted by RicoLance21

I hope you are right. My concern is the housing prices as to whether the recent spike is caused by sheer growth or investors looking to hold and sit vacant like what is happening in Vancouver. Nobody likes to see the latter part happening, of course.

Population growth predictions are always fuzzy. My brother in law works for a bank and they do their own population growth reports, which are surprisingly accurate. They can tell how many people are moving to Calgary by the amount of new accounts, and accounts that are being transferred. They don't look at the natural increase, but that number is fairly static.

They look at the numbers monthly and quarterly, etc.. and it sounds like this past year will be a bit higher than last year, but he doesn't have exact numbers, it's just a general growth projection. I hope he's right.

Whatever the numbers end up being, I'm sure they won't be far off last year's numbers.

[Wigs]

Originally Posted by Fuzz

1,181,137

Price is Right rules.

jerk!

[kw5150]

38,000 new Calgary residents. People were practically fighting over my condo and even the new place we purchased. A number of places we offered on refused to take our offer because it was a "clause sale", meaning we had to sell our place first. The had so many offers that they almost always refused ours.

38,000.

[Cage]

Tight rental and housing markets likely mean that population growth will be on the low end of scale with a lot of market excess being sent to bedroom communities.

My prediction will be 20k net migration growth with the majority of new Calgarians being of the infant category rather than immigrants from other Canadian cities.

[kw5150]

Well, the bets are on I guess.......2005, 2006, 2007 and 2008 beg to differ with you.

Originally Posted by Cage

Tight rental and housing markets likely mean that population growth will be on the low end of scale with a lot of market excess being sent to bedroom communities.

My prediction will be 20k net migration growth with the majority of new Calgarians being of the infant category rather than immigrants from other Canadian cities.

[DizzyEdge]

So the impression I'm getting on Twitter is in Edmonton you can fill out your census info online. Anyone know if this is true?

[mersar]

Originally Posted by DizzyEdge

So the impression I'm getting on Twitter is in Edmonton you can fill out your census info online. Anyone know if this is true?

Correct. See information here. Most of the communities surrounding Calgary went to that style of system in the past few years and from all reports I've heard it works far better, and is far cheaper to administer with a lower rate of needing followup by an actual person if the household fails to provide the information.

[Habanero]

A tight rental and housing market, might send some people to the bedroom communities, but it's also a symptom of already high population growth. From what I've been hearing, the growth for 2013 should be in line with 2012 and 2011, so expect to see somewhere around 27-30K in growth. ~11k will be from natural increase, ~12k net gain from international immigration, and ~6K from intercity/interprovincial.

My guess will be that's it's slightly lower than last year at 28K

Originally Posted by Cage

Tight rental and housing markets likely mean that population growth will be on the low end of scale with a lot of market excess being sent to bedroom communities.

My prediction will be 20k net migration growth with the majority of new Calgarians being of the infant category rather than immigrants from other Canadian cities.

[Deepstar]

My guess is an even 30,000. I know it will be somewhere in that range give or take a couple of thousand.

[Surrealplaces]

That would be a good option. I suppose that they would only need to send someone to addresses where nobody has responded. It would make things easier, plus they could gather more info on the on-line system, in a much quicker fashion.

Originally Posted by mersar

Correct. See information here. Most of the communities surrounding Calgary went to that style of system in the past few years and from all reports I've heard it works far better, and is far cheaper to administer with a lower rate of needing followup by an actual person if the household fails to provide the information.

[Chadillaccc]

I'll ask the bigger question, what do you think our metropolitan population will increase to this year? It was 1 364 000 last year.

I'd guess around 1 405 000 this year, with the extended metro area (Okotoks and Foothills) making it around 1 480 000.

[Spring2008]

Calgary Economic Region's pop as of July of last year estimated at 1,468,689. Extrapolating we should already have surpassed 1.5M

http://www.calgaryeconomicdevelopmen...cators/current


If the city implements more solid ARP's/ASP's, and streamlines the approval process I believe we can properly accommodate 40,000 per year growth within the city proper in a well planned manner.