HomeDiagramsDatabaseMapsForum About
     

Go Back   SkyscraperPage Forum > Discussion Forums > City Discussions


Reply

 
Thread Tools Display Modes
     
     
  #81  
Old Posted Nov 11, 2020, 8:25 PM
iheartthed iheartthed is offline
Registered User
 
Join Date: Oct 2009
Location: New York
Posts: 9,782
Quote:
Originally Posted by pj3000 View Post
I think this is interesting in contrast to Pennsylvania counties/metros that trump flipped from blue to red in 2016.

Erie (Erie)
2012 - Obama 59-40
2016 - trump 48-46
2020 - Biden 50-49

Northampton (Bethlehem, Easton)
2012 - Obama 52-47
2016 - trump 50-46
2020 - Biden 50-49

Luzerne (Wilkes-Barre)
2012 - Obama 52-47
2016 - trump 58-39
2020 - trump 57-42

The big swings are really telling...

- Erie County basically became the unfortunate national poster child for the Obama to trump flip. A solidly and reliably blue county that goes roughly 60% for Obama in 2012, barely ends up for trump by like 1,500 votes (only because some suburban areas went a little bit "purple"). Notable that Hillary did not set foot in Erie County, and barely was in PA during her 2016 campaign.

- Luzerne County going so hard red in 2016 and staying red in 2020 by a significant margin is notable.
Erie and Northampton Counties look fairly similar to Michigan's Obama-Trump-Biden transition. But Luzerne looks more interesting than the others, IMO. Luzerne going from decently Obama to raging MAGA is wild.
Reply With Quote
     
     
  #82  
Old Posted Nov 11, 2020, 8:32 PM
ATXboom ATXboom is offline
Registered User
 
Join Date: May 2007
Posts: 1,819
Quote:
Originally Posted by Crawford View Post
Those Ohio metro counties are some of the rustiest in America. Youngstown, Canton, Warren, Lorain.

Populism, even fascist drift, has appeal when people feel they're down and out. This will be a huge challenge in the coming years, whomever is in power.
Grew up in this area... really steel, rubber, coal and manufacturing focused. They feel like they've been left behind economically and ignored by the progressive agenda whatever that may be. They will vote for someone that sticks up for them and their specific concerns. They feel Obama created even more advantages for OTHER people than them (again feeling left out and that the playing field isn't equal).... so they spite vote for anyone running counter to that.
Reply With Quote
     
     
  #83  
Old Posted Nov 11, 2020, 9:07 PM
SIGSEGV's Avatar
SIGSEGV SIGSEGV is offline
He/his/him. >~<, QED!
 
Join Date: Jun 2018
Location: Loop, Chicago
Posts: 5,991
Quote:
Originally Posted by iheartthed View Post
Erie and Northampton Counties look fairly similar to Michigan's Obama-Trump-Biden transition. But Luzerne looks more interesting than the others, IMO. Luzerne going from decently Obama to raging MAGA is wild.
Is it a big fracking area?
__________________
And here the air that I breathe isn't dead.
Reply With Quote
     
     
  #84  
Old Posted Nov 11, 2020, 9:25 PM
pj3000's Avatar
pj3000 pj3000 is offline
Registered User
 
Join Date: Jun 2005
Location: Pittsburgh & Miami
Posts: 7,544
Quote:
Originally Posted by SIGSEGV View Post
Is it a big fracking area?
Nope. Erie and Northhampton, none. Luzerne, very little.
Reply With Quote
     
     
  #85  
Old Posted Nov 11, 2020, 9:30 PM
badrunner badrunner is offline
Registered User
 
Join Date: Oct 2016
Posts: 2,698
Quote:
Originally Posted by ocman View Post
Taking these numbers at face value it's pretty amazing that democrats have completely monopolized plus 1M counties. Even the 3 that went Republican leaned by a slim margin.
How they did it is more interesting. It's really the suburbs around big cities that shifted the map from 2016 to 2020. Inner city voting patterns haven't really changed (in fact, democrats lost ground among some minority demographics). I think this is a long term trend that democrats can build on, and republicans should be very concerned about.
Reply With Quote
     
     
  #86  
Old Posted Nov 11, 2020, 9:45 PM
ChiSoxRox's Avatar
ChiSoxRox ChiSoxRox is offline
Registered User
 
Join Date: Mar 2007
Location: Boston, MA
Posts: 2,489
Biden was the first presidential Democrat to win Tarrant County, Texas (Fort Worth) since LBJ in 1964.

Meanwhile Trump this year was the first Republican to win Mahoning County, Ohio (Youngstown) since Nixon in 1972, and the first Republican majority since Eisenhower in 1956.
__________________
Like the pre-war masonry skyscrapers? Then check out my list of the tallest buildings in 1950.
Reply With Quote
     
     
  #87  
Old Posted Nov 11, 2020, 10:06 PM
Steely Dan's Avatar
Steely Dan Steely Dan is offline
devout Pizzatarian
 
Join Date: Jul 2001
Location: Lincoln Square, Chicago
Posts: 29,634
Quote:
Originally Posted by badrunner View Post
How they did it is more interesting. It's really the suburbs around big cities that shifted the map from 2016 to 2020.
yep.

here's an interesting opinion piece about that very trend: These are the gatekeepers who let Biden win


Quote:
According to exit polls, suburban voters turned -- and turned out -- against President Donald Trump this year. In 2016, Trump beat Hillary Clinton in the suburbs 49% to 45%.

In Election 2020, Biden outpaced Trump 50% to 48%. As a mirror of the nation, it's not surprising that the two-point gap between the candidates nearly reflected the three-point gap in the national popular vote totals.
__________________
"Missing middle" housing can be a great middle ground for many middle class families.
Reply With Quote
     
     
  #88  
Old Posted Nov 11, 2020, 10:26 PM
pj3000's Avatar
pj3000 pj3000 is offline
Registered User
 
Join Date: Jun 2005
Location: Pittsburgh & Miami
Posts: 7,544
Quote:
Originally Posted by badrunner View Post
How they did it is more interesting. It's really the suburbs around big cities that shifted the map from 2016 to 2020. Inner city voting patterns haven't really changed (in fact, democrats lost ground among some minority demographics). I think this is a long term trend that democrats can build on, and republicans should be very concerned about.
Right, the 2016 shift was an interesting thing to watch in a "battleground" state like Pennsylvania. Trump's win wasn't because he flipped smaller metro counties (Erie, Northampton, Luzerne) that got so much media attention in 2016... it was due to the heavily-populated suburbs around Philadelphia going more red, even though they stayed blue overall.

And it's not just the suburbs around big cities -- it's the suburbs around medium and small cities too.

The same scenario is generally at a play... solid blue city, solid red rural.

And the winner is chosen by the purple suburbs... not because they went blue or red, but because of the margin by which suburban voting precincts went blue or red.

That's why coloring a county blue or red is so often non-informative, and often deceptive.

It's not about colors, it's about numbers.


Quote:
Originally Posted by ChiSoxRox View Post
Biden was the first presidential Democrat to win Tarrant County, Texas (Fort Worth) since LBJ in 1964.

Meanwhile Trump this year was the first Republican to win Mahoning County, Ohio (Youngstown) since Nixon in 1972, and the first Republican majority since Eisenhower in 1956.
Wow, that's pretty amazing for both counties.

I figured it was only a matter of time before Tarrant turned blue, given the rapid growth and full merging with Dallas.

But Mahoning is surprising given its solid Democrat history. Though similar former steel/coal/heavy manufacturing counties around Pittsburgh (Washington, Beaver, Westmoreland, Fayette), which were among the most reliable Dem strongholds for what seemed to be forever, have all gone red since 2008 (2008... who was the Dem candidate again? hmmm... what does that tell you?)

Also, Trump spent a lot of time over the past 4 years in the Youngstown area, playing to his base with his whole "bring back your auto and steel industry" and "China cheats" schtick.
Reply With Quote
     
     
  #89  
Old Posted Nov 11, 2020, 10:29 PM
Docere Docere is offline
Registered User
 
Join Date: Jul 2014
Posts: 7,364
In the media, "the suburbs" often seems to mean affluent, educated suburbs that are fairly conservative on economics and moderate to liberal on social and cultural issues. The conversation is disproportionately about Chicago's North Shore, Philadelphia's Main Line, NOVA etc. But on the whole I'm not surprised the suburban vote closely matches the national popular vote.
Reply With Quote
     
     
  #90  
Old Posted Nov 11, 2020, 10:30 PM
dc_denizen's Avatar
dc_denizen dc_denizen is offline
Selfie-stick vendor
 
Join Date: Oct 2005
Location: New York Suburbs
Posts: 10,999
Trump was right about manufacturing and those Youngstown and Lehigh valley folks were right to support him in 2016

Unfortunately trump spent his presidency arguing with the media , playing golf , and tweeting instead of making intelligent moves to shore up our country’s manufacturing base
__________________
Joined the bus on the 33rd seat
By the doo-doo room with the reek replete
Reply With Quote
     
     
  #91  
Old Posted Nov 11, 2020, 10:33 PM
PoshSteve's Avatar
PoshSteve PoshSteve is offline
Registered User
 
Join Date: Jul 2011
Location: Cleveland OH!
Posts: 187
I think Biden could have won Ohio had there been any investment in the state by the campaign. We would have looked more like Michigan and Pennsylvania than Indiana. No one on the Dems side paid attention to the state until the last two weeks or so, and by then it was too late. Trump's win in Mahoning and Lorain counties were razor thin. While the margin in Cuyahoga (Cleveland) was huge for Biden (66% to 32%), turnout was down. Dems have no chance of doing well in Ohio if they don't turn out Cuyahoga County, which is what Obama did. I think they could have put the suburbs here into play too.

Here is an interactive precinct map for Cuyahoga County:
https://skorasaur.us/maps/2020-cuyah...ntial-results/

The east suburbs were overwhelmingly for Biden (wealthier, more diverse), while the south suburbs (notably Parma) which are more blue collar went to Trump. The middle class western suburbs were more of a mix. I imagine the suburban sprawl in Lorain County was similar to the west side. Suburban Lake County is more blue collar, which is why it went to Trump. Interestingly, the two bright red spots in the middle of the east suburbs are the hearts of the two orthodox neighborhoods. The other Jewish areas went to Biden with 50-60pt margins.
Reply With Quote
     
     
  #92  
Old Posted Nov 11, 2020, 10:33 PM
ChiSoxRox's Avatar
ChiSoxRox ChiSoxRox is offline
Registered User
 
Join Date: Mar 2007
Location: Boston, MA
Posts: 2,489
More electoral trivia:

Three states had electoral "winning" streaks going back to at least 2000. I.e. these three states had voted Bush in 2004, Obama in '08 and '12, and Trump in 2016.

Ohio - picked Nixon over Kennedy in 1960
Florida - picked Bush over Clinton in 1992
Iowa - picked Gore over Bush in 2000

All three states lost their winning streaks this election. The new longest streaks are the Blue Wall states (WI, MI, PA) for going Obama-Trump-Biden.


Seven counties had electoral "winning" streaks going back to at least 1972:

Valencia County, NM - picked the winner since 1952
Vigo County, IN - 1956
Juneau County, WI - 1960
Ottawa County, OH - 1960
Sawyer County, WI - 1960
Westmoreland County, VA - 1960
Hidalgo County, NM - 1968

Every single one had their streaks broken this year.

Clallam County, Washington is the new longest winning streak, going for Ford over Carter in 1976.

Honorable mention for Blaine County, Montana, which voted for Dukakis by 58 votes after the farm crisis of the 80s. Aside from 1988, the last election Blaine County got wrong was when Theodore Roosevelt won it in his 1912 Bull Moose campaign.
__________________
Like the pre-war masonry skyscrapers? Then check out my list of the tallest buildings in 1950.
Reply With Quote
     
     
  #93  
Old Posted Nov 11, 2020, 10:33 PM
JManc's Avatar
JManc JManc is offline
Dryer lint inspector
 
Join Date: Feb 2003
Location: Houston/ SF Bay Area
Posts: 37,783
Quote:
Originally Posted by ocman View Post
Also I never thought CA would ever overtake the smaller New England states in voting democrat considering how large and diverse the state is.
I did. Small town/ rural California is inconsequential compared to urban areas unlike the northeast which has loads of rural communities and battered small towns. Plus, the cities tend to be more progressive and further to the left than their counterparts back east.
Reply With Quote
     
     
  #94  
Old Posted Nov 11, 2020, 10:35 PM
pj3000's Avatar
pj3000 pj3000 is offline
Registered User
 
Join Date: Jun 2005
Location: Pittsburgh & Miami
Posts: 7,544
Quote:
Originally Posted by dc_denizen View Post
Trump was right about manufacturing and those Youngstown and Lehigh valley folks were right to support him in 2016

Unfortunately trump spent his presidency arguing with the media , playing golf , and tweeting instead of making intelligent moves to shore up our country’s manufacturing base
He definitely tapped into a lot of frustration and angst in a large region of the which quite literally built the country... and that angst and frustration emanated from very real, debilitating economic problems.

But what was he right about?
Reply With Quote
     
     
  #95  
Old Posted Nov 11, 2020, 10:41 PM
dc_denizen's Avatar
dc_denizen dc_denizen is offline
Selfie-stick vendor
 
Join Date: Oct 2005
Location: New York Suburbs
Posts: 10,999
How was he right ?

That a country that has to import 500$ billion in goods from China annually to sustain its living standards , is not a country on a sustainable economic or geopolitical path ?
__________________
Joined the bus on the 33rd seat
By the doo-doo room with the reek replete
Reply With Quote
     
     
  #96  
Old Posted Nov 11, 2020, 10:44 PM
pj3000's Avatar
pj3000 pj3000 is offline
Registered User
 
Join Date: Jun 2005
Location: Pittsburgh & Miami
Posts: 7,544
Quote:
Originally Posted by dc_denizen View Post
How was he right ?

That a country that has to import 500$ billion in goods from China annually to sustain its living standards , is not a country on a sustainable economic or geopolitical path ?
Sure, I agree (I was asking honestly, btw). I just wasn't sure specifically what you were referring to.

But I don't think that assuring people that he was going to bring back coal, steel, and auto jobs en masse was a very good strategy... it only declined more during his term.
Reply With Quote
     
     
  #97  
Old Posted Nov 11, 2020, 10:45 PM
dc_denizen's Avatar
dc_denizen dc_denizen is offline
Selfie-stick vendor
 
Join Date: Oct 2005
Location: New York Suburbs
Posts: 10,999
Well it was basically the only thing he was right about
__________________
Joined the bus on the 33rd seat
By the doo-doo room with the reek replete
Reply With Quote
     
     
  #98  
Old Posted Nov 11, 2020, 10:46 PM
PoshSteve's Avatar
PoshSteve PoshSteve is offline
Registered User
 
Join Date: Jul 2011
Location: Cleveland OH!
Posts: 187
Quote:
Originally Posted by ChiSoxRox View Post
Biden was the first presidential Democrat to win Tarrant County, Texas (Fort Worth) since LBJ in 1964.

Meanwhile Trump this year was the first Republican to win Mahoning County, Ohio (Youngstown) since Nixon in 1972, and the first Republican majority since Eisenhower in 1956.
Mahoning County is interesting. The margin for President was thin - 50.38 Trump, 48.44 Biden - but the Mahoning Valley congressional race was not. Tim Ryan, the Dem incumbent, won handedly against his Trump backed challenger, 52.48 to 44.98. Also, in 2018 the Ohio Dem Senator, Sherrod Brown, won a solid victory, 53.4 to 46.6. This included all of the Mahoning Valley counties.

For these reasons, I don't think the Democrats are dead in the Valley. Like alot of areas in the Midwest/NE that flipped, I think it's more a vote for Trump the man than anything else.
Reply With Quote
     
     
  #99  
Old Posted Nov 11, 2020, 10:49 PM
Docere Docere is offline
Registered User
 
Join Date: Jul 2014
Posts: 7,364
Quote:
Originally Posted by Docere View Post
In the media, "the suburbs" often seems to mean affluent, educated suburbs that are fairly conservative on economics and moderate to liberal on social and cultural issues. The conversation is disproportionately about Chicago's North Shore, Philadelphia's Main Line, NOVA etc. But on the whole I'm not surprised the suburban vote closely matches the national popular vote.
Correction: The AP Votecast survey, which looks much more reliable than the CNN/Edison Research exit poll, gave Biden a 10 point lead in the suburbs.
Reply With Quote
     
     
  #100  
Old Posted Nov 11, 2020, 10:53 PM
iheartthed iheartthed is offline
Registered User
 
Join Date: Oct 2009
Location: New York
Posts: 9,782
Quote:
Originally Posted by dc_denizen View Post
Well it was basically the only thing he was right about
I recently watched a clip of that infamous debate when he tore into Jeb Bush. In addition to his posture towards China and the trade imbalance, I think he was also right about the Iraq War and the U.S.'s interventionist tendencies. I would never vote for Trump, but broken clocks...
Reply With Quote
     
     
This discussion thread continues

Use the page links to the lower-right to go to the next page for additional posts
 
 
Reply

Go Back   SkyscraperPage Forum > Discussion Forums > City Discussions
Forum Jump


Thread Tools
Display Modes

Forum Jump


All times are GMT. The time now is 9:50 AM.

     
SkyscraperPage.com - Archive - Privacy Statement - Top

Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.7
Copyright ©2000 - 2024, vBulletin Solutions, Inc.