Americans Are Moving South, West Again

[Leo the Dog]

Americans Are Moving South, West Again

Americans are heading South and West again in search of jobs and more affordable housing, as the nation’s economic health continues to improve.

Census population estimates show that the 16 states and the District of Columbia that comprise the South saw an increase of almost 1.4 million people between 2014 and 2015. The 13 states in the West grew by about 866,000 people.

The gains represent the largest annual growth in population of the decade for both regions and signal that the multi-decade migration to the Sun Belt has resumed after being interrupted by the Great Recession of 2007-09 and the economic sluggishness and anxiety that followed.

View the rest of the article here: http://www.pewtrusts.org/en/research...uth-west-again

[brickell]

I took a mini tour of some Orlando exurbs over the weekend and can confirm that development is back in full swing after a good post recession halt. No trees will be left standing.

[mSeattle]

Rapid population growth in suburbs, the best thing to happen in the worst way.

[ardecila]

This doesn't surprise me honestly. America is always about private industry giving people what they want. The recession, harsh as it was, was not enough to reset consumer preferences because most people burned by the recession preferred to blame Wall Street fat cats instead of their own poor financial decisions to buy too much house for too much money too far away from jobs and services.

Ongoing gentrification in the big cities, however, will do the job. The wealthy are almost always the first to glom onto new trends and then set the desires for the rest of America. Housing preferences take decades to change, but other than that they're just like fancy cupcakes or froyo.

Desire for urbanity WILL percolate down to the average Joe. It already has, to some extent, but our cities are not prepared to handle this. Zoning codes do not allow for population growth in existing urban centers and do not allow for new urban centers to be created in suburban/rural areas. Transportation policy in much of the country still pushes roads over public transit, and real urbanity is geometrically impossible if everyone has to drive everywhere. Given these facts, it's no surprise that costs for urban living are skyrocketing and even people with an urban preference are forced to seek cheaper housing in sprawlsville.

[chris08876]

Originally Posted by ardecila

Transportation policy in much of the country still pushes roads over public transit, and real urbanity is geometrically impossible if everyone has to drive everywhere. Given these facts, it's no surprise that costs for urban living are skyrocketing and even people with an urban preference are forced to seek cheaper housing in sprawlsville.

The boom in suburban counties all over this land will hurt cities even more. We are progressing from singe family homes to apartments in the suburbs at a fast rate. And these apartments, although low rise in their nature, contain 100's of units. Units which could of gone to some urban core. A combination of preference for roads, the rise of complex's that contain 100's of units (in some cases 1000+), office and industrial parks, and you have a situation where people really don't have to set foot into a city. I mean, all the shopping is in the burbs, work, housing, parks, and so on.

Its a sad state of affairs for American urbanity. A lot of our cities are dumping grounds for extreme poverty, extreme wealth, and the middle lives outside of the cores. They do so because Americans like their segregation (they won't admit it, but we are a segregated culture), and a much better bang for the buck (suburbs).

It sucks, but its what our country has turned out to be. There's hope with the younger generation who prefers urban living, but the minute they have kids, the expenses start piling up, the single family lifestyle starts to become attractive. Often in some sterile town, with a nearby wal-mart.

I also think people like the suburbs because of our materialistic obsession. Suburbs often provide that excess lifestyle, and in cities, in a nice neighborhood, that will be crazy expensive. In the suburbs, luxury can be accessible much easier than in a popular and upcoming city.

[Austinlee]

Originally Posted by chris08876

The boom in suburban counties all over this land will hurt cities even more. We are progressing from singe family homes to apartments in the suburbs at a fast rate. And these apartments, although low rise in their nature, contain 100's of units. Units which could of gone to some urban core. A combination of preference for roads, the rise of complex's that contain 100's of units (in some cases 1000+), office and industrial parks, and you have a situation where people really don't have to set foot into a city. I mean, all the shopping is in the burbs, work, housing, parks, and so on.

Its a sad state of affairs for American urbanity. A lot of our cities are dumping grounds for extreme poverty, extreme wealth, and the middle lives outside of the cores. They do so because Americans like their segregation (they won't admit it, but we are a segregated culture), and a much better bang for the buck (suburbs).

It sucks, but its what our country has turned out to be. There's hope with the younger generation who prefers urban living, but the minute they have kids, the expenses start piling up, the single family lifestyle starts to become attractive. Often in some sterile town, with a nearby wal-mart.

I also think people like the suburbs because of our materialistic obsession. Suburbs often provide that excess lifestyle, and in cities, in a nice neighborhood, that will be crazy expensive. In the suburbs, luxury can be accessible much easier than in a popular and upcoming city.

Well said. I agree with you on all counts.

[brian_b]

Originally Posted by chris08876

...but the minute they have kids, the expenses start piling up, the single family lifestyle starts to become attractive. Often in some sterile town, with a nearby wal-mart.

That isn't the way it works at all. I've been involved with the largest urban parenting organization in Chicago for a little over 7 years and have seen how the "move to the suburbs" happens. Hundreds of times.

Very few urban families are dreaming about their eventual move to the burbs; those that do never moved to the city in the first place. The "single family lifestyle" is about making lemonade out of lemons. Frankly, there are a LOT fewer lemons than there were even 10 years ago, but it's fairly useless to discuss what's left on this board given that the overwhelming majority of users are childless and convinced that they know everything about parenthood because of how their own parents raised them in a crowded bungalow and they turned out fine.

[Crawford]

Originally Posted by brian_b

Very few urban families are dreaming about their eventual move to the burbs; those that do never moved to the city in the first place.

Totally not true. Today's young urbanist is tomorrow's suburban soccer mom. Once you hit 40, everyone is in the burbs in most U.S. cities.

Of the two dozen or so urban couples I knew in Chicago (from my university and family connections), every couple but one moved to the suburbs. They were pretty much all urbanists, and all (but one) are now in Chicagoland suburbs, or other suburbs around the country.

The only couple that didn't leave Chicago received a huge inheritance, and built a $4 million new construction mansion in Lincoln Park. And now even they are thinking of leaving, as they have triplets, and it's getting to be too much, despite having live-in help. They'll probably be in Hinsdale or Winnetka within a year or two (their house is currently on the market).

Why did people leave? Schools, convenience, more house for the money. Once you have kids, it just gets too difficult. One kid might be doable, but two becomes too difficult to live the urban lifestyle unless you're rich. Keep in mind that urban professionals generally still want single family homes and a bit of yard. NYC is really the only city where affluent urban families typically aim to live in multifamily housing.

Granted, this isn't a Chicago thing, at all. It's a life stage thing. It's fun to be in a city when you're 25 and single, but when you're 40 with 2 or 3 kids, the suburbs await for the vast majority of people.

[the urban politician]

Originally Posted by Crawford

Totally not true. Today's young urbanist is tomorrow's suburban soccer mom. Once you hit 40, everyone is in the burbs in most U.S. cities.

Of the two dozen or so urban couples I knew in Chicago (from my university and family connections), every couple but one moved to the suburbs. They were pretty much all urbanists, and all (but one) are now in Chicagoland suburbs, or other suburbs around the country.

The only couple that didn't leave Chicago received a huge inheritance, and built a $4 million new construction mansion in Lincoln Park. And now even they are thinking of leaving, as they have triplets, and it's getting to be too much, despite having live-in help. They'll probably be in Hinsdale or Winnetka within a year or two (their house is currently on the market).

Why did people leave? Schools, convenience, more house for the money. Once you have kids, it just gets too difficult. One kid might be doable, but two becomes too difficult to live the urban lifestyle unless you're rich. Keep in mind that urban professionals generally still want single family homes and a bit of yard. NYC is really the only city where affluent urban families typically aim to live in multifamily housing.

Granted, this isn't a Chicago thing, at all. It's a life stage thing. It's fun to be in a city when you're 25 and single, but when you're 40 with 2 or 3 kids, the suburbs await for the vast majority of people.

A whole bunch of my suburban neighbors moved here from the city. And it wasn't right after they popped out a baby. It was usually either after their child was a few years older, or their second child was born.

It's all anecdotal, but it's still happening all the time. I love the city, but it's simply a pain in the ass to have young children in the city. There are so many reasons why this is true, but I'm sure that my points here will be drowned out in all the usual suburban-hating catcalls around here that I won't even bother.

[Vlajos]

Originally Posted by brian_b

That isn't the way it works at all. I've been involved with the largest urban parenting organization in Chicago for a little over 7 years and have seen how the "move to the suburbs" happens. Hundreds of times.

Very few urban families are dreaming about their eventual move to the burbs; those that do never moved to the city in the first place. The "single family lifestyle" is about making lemonade out of lemons. Frankly, there are a LOT fewer lemons than there were even 10 years ago, but it's fairly useless to discuss what's left on this board given that the overwhelming majority of users are childless and convinced that they know everything about parenthood because of how their own parents raised them in a crowded bungalow and they turned out fine.

Can you explain this a bit more, I'm not following what you are saying.

[brian_b]

Originally Posted by Vlajos

Can you explain this a bit more, I'm not following what you are saying.

People look at their own situation and decide that the suburbs are the best option. So they put on a happy face and move.

They haven't been dreaming of the suburbs, just waiting for the kids to come so they have an excuse to move out there.

[brickell]

Originally Posted by ardecila

Desire for urbanity WILL percolate down to the average Joe. It already has, to some extent, but our cities are not prepared to handle this. Zoning codes do not allow for population growth in existing urban centers and do not allow for new urban centers to be created in suburban/rural areas. Transportation policy in much of the country still pushes roads over public transit, and real urbanity is geometrically impossible if everyone has to drive everywhere. Given these facts, it's no surprise that costs for urban living are skyrocketing and even people with an urban preference are forced to seek cheaper housing in sprawlsville.

There's quite a bit of planned communities in the area I was talking about. They're more new urbanism lite than anything else. Lots of walking trails, porches, community spaces. It has the trappings of small town urbansim without of course the urbanism. Not much retail to speak of, little to no jobs, enclosed monoculture. But people like it better than the old suburbs.

[Prahaboheme]

Originally Posted by brickell

There's quite a bit of planned communities in the area I was talking about. They're more new urbanism lite than anything else. Lots of walking trails, porches, community spaces. It has the trappings of small town urbansim without of course the urbanism. Not much retail to speak of, little to no jobs, enclosed monoculture. But people like it better than the old suburbs.

Are you referring to Lake Nona?

[brickell]

Originally Posted by Prahaboheme

Are you referring to Lake Nona?

Independence and those further west. But I've seen similar developments in other parts of the metro. Lake Nona is very similar from what I've seen, but they at least have the business park they're building around.

[ChargerCarl]

Originally Posted by ardecila

Desire for urbanity WILL percolate down to the average Joe. It already has, to some extent, but our cities are not prepared to handle this. Zoning codes do not allow for population growth in existing urban centers and do not allow for new urban centers to be created in suburban/rural areas. Transportation policy in much of the country still pushes roads over public transit, and real urbanity is geometrically impossible if everyone has to drive everywhere. Given these facts, it's no surprise that costs for urban living are skyrocketing and even people with an urban preference are forced to seek cheaper housing in sprawlsville.

Well said.

We've made housing supply growth in our coastal core cities all but impossible, so it's no surprise people are moving to where it's still legal to build new housing units to any significant degree.

[Qubert]

Originally Posted by ardecila

This doesn't surprise me honestly. America is always about private industry giving people what they want. The recession, harsh as it was, was not enough to reset consumer preferences because most people burned by the recession preferred to blame Wall Street fat cats instead of their own poor financial decisions to buy too much house for too much money too far away from jobs and services.

Ongoing gentrification in the big cities, however, will do the job. The wealthy are almost always the first to glom onto new trends and then set the desires for the rest of America. Housing preferences take decades to change, but other than that they're just like fancy cupcakes or froyo.

Desire for urbanity WILL percolate down to the average Joe. It already has, to some extent, but our cities are not prepared to handle this. Zoning codes do not allow for population growth in existing urban centers and do not allow for new urban centers to be created in suburban/rural areas. Transportation policy in much of the country still pushes roads over public transit, and real urbanity is geometrically impossible if everyone has to drive everywhere. Given these facts, it's no surprise that costs for urban living are skyrocketing and even people with an urban preference are forced to seek cheaper housing in sprawlsville.

I'd rather have the wealthy in cities and let the average joe decide for themselves where they would want to live. Yes, it sounds elitist, but in the end I'm more concerned with making cities better places than wither or not they are "popular" or not. Bigger is not always better.

[Buckeye Native 001]

I'd love to know who's moving to Arizona? The state's economy and wages have been stagnant since the recession and we can't seem to go a week without making the news for something ridiculous.

That said, Central Phoenix is the liveliest it's been since arguably the mid-20th century.

[chris08876]

^^^^^

People from NJ move there. North Carolina seems to be very popular for my state along with Florida. Also Pennsylvania naturally.

I can get Pennsylvania, but Arizona is so radically different than the Northeast. People move there because its cheaper, but is cheaper really everything in life.

Sure a cheap house is fine and dandy, but lower wages and less of a powerhouse in economic activity is also bad. Texas is probably the best bet if one wants to move from the Northeast. Way cheaper, and wages are comparable, plus it has a strong economy. Florida is nice too, love the place, but unless your in certain industries, it can be a iffy choice.

[Leo the Dog]

Originally Posted by Buckeye Native 001

I'd love to know who's moving to Arizona? The state's economy and wages have been stagnant since the recession and we can't seem to go a week without making the news for something ridiculous.

That said, Central Phoenix is the liveliest it's been since arguably the mid-20th century.

Californians? Close proximity to home, plenty of sunshine, cheaper housing for expanding families.

CA lost 77,000. The pop is still growing due to immigration and natural births, but many Californians continue to flee.

Metro Phoenix is projected to 7.8 million people by 2050 and Arizona 10.8 million. Looks like the growth machine is back at work in AZ.

[Via Chicago]

Originally Posted by Buckeye Native 001

I'd love to know who's moving to Arizona?

People from Illinois.