Houston's Highrise Construction

[dc_denizen]

Originally Posted by JManc

Houston is involved with all aspects with the industry. It will suffer if prices continue to fall.

However, I think the precedent w/ natural gas drilling is interesting.

Prices cratered for NG for the past five years, this didn't stop drillers from continuing investing billions, buying rigs and services, etc. Shareholders and lenders didn't seem to mind even as ROEs declined.

If you were making 200% and now have to content yourself with 50%, it's the shareholders that take the first hit.

[Eightball]

Originally Posted by jg6544

That's what they said before the last few real estate bubbles burst in Houston or anywhere else, for that matter. High-rise construction seems to run on about a 10-year cycle of boom and bust.

Exactly.

On a more positive note, what do H-Town forumers consider the 5 best Houston high-rises?

[JManc]

Originally Posted by dc_denizen

However, I think the precedent w/ natural gas drilling is interesting.

Prices cratered for NG for the past five years, this didn't stop drillers from continuing investing billions, buying rigs and services, etc. Shareholders and lenders didn't seem to mind even as ROEs declined.

If you were making 200% and now have to content yourself with 50%, it's the shareholders that take the first hit.

It's psychological and has a cascading effect. I think people were sitting tight for a while and waiting until the new year to act but I think a lot of contingency plans were well underway; hiring freezes, layoffs, delay of new developments, etc. I am/was in the interview process with Oil services company was it was abruptly put on hold a few weeks ago. The job is not in Houston but still...

[chris08876]

Oil is very turbulent. Not a good field if you want permanent work with good job security. Sure they pay tends to be higher versus other industries, but you can also get laid off really easy. Even at the senior level. The environmental field can at least offer some decent job security for the most part and allow you to settle somewhere without having to move every "X' amount of years.

[Leo the Dog]

Originally Posted by JManc

Houston is involved with all aspects with the industry. It will suffer if prices continue to fall.

Oil has been predicted to settle around $80-$90 by year's end 2015.

I've subscribed to T. Boone Pickens newsletter/email since 2008. He claims this is a temporary collapse of oil.

[TexasPlaya]

Originally Posted by Leo the Dog

Oil has been predicted to settle around $80-$90 by year's end 2015.

I've subscribed to T. Boone Pickens newsletter/email since 2008. He claims this is a temporary collapse of oil.

The traders are betting on a temporary collapse as well. China is buying up oil tankers in order to store it while prices are down. This isn't the 80s, this is a global world now with a global population trying to achieve a higher standard of living. Demand will pick up again and energy prices will rise.

[TexasPlaya]

As for as Houston is concerned, it really depends on the length of the collapse. A year or two at $70/80 per barrel would probably be a good thing for Houston while a year or two at $50/60 per barrel would be quite damaging. At $70/80 prices Houston can cool off and play catch up with infrastructure and the like. A few billions in bonds passed over the last two years for new schools, roads, and parks across the metro will be great. Construction and land costs will come back to reality and the metro will still continue to grow. Downstream part of the O&G business has about $40 billion in upgrades, maintenance, and expansion along the gulf coast. Ports in the Houston metro are gearing up for the Panama Canal expansion with new warehouse space and infrastructure. There's a good reason to be cautiously optimistic about Houston.

[navyweaxguy]

Does anyone actually think that these cheap oil prices are actually going to last? I bet before summer they will be right back up to ridiculous prices again.

I've only been to Houston once back in 2000. I really need to come back and explore.

[Eightball]

I really liked this photo of the Houston DT skyline from Tom Haynes/posted at Wiki



This skyscraper (WF Plaza I guess, also from Wiki) is pretty clean, I like it a lot

[chris08876]

This angle is always nice showing DT and the Medical Campus:






Credit: All pics from; http://www.houstonarchitecture.com/ ::

1) http://www.houstonarchitecture.com/h...119_136188.jpg
2) http://www.houstonarchitecture.com/h...119_110597.jpg
3) http://www.houstonarchitecture.com/h...119_355071.jpg


I believe these are from 2009 so several towers are missing but nevertheless it gives us an idea. A 360 panorama from this site would be sweet. Showing off the other downtowns areas from 2014.

Normally I'm not a fan of high rises scattered all over the area, but Houston seems to pull it off. Looks good in a way. Also, the highway system is kickass. I gotta give credit to Texas, the highways are a drivers heaven.

[Bailey]

@ chris08876

Wait until 2017..You will see SUBSTANTIAL changes to the cityscape by then.

[Ant131531]

It's mindblogging how undeveloped the area around downtown Houston is. With all of the development, I would have thought to have seen more midrises outside of the freeway loop. It still looks rather unimpressive, especially since it has the grid to pull off a decent urban fabric going south towards the Medical Center.

[AviationGuy]

Originally Posted by Ant131531

It's mindblogging how undeveloped the area around downtown Houston is. With all of the development, I would have thought to have seen more midrises outside of the freeway loop. It still looks rather unimpressive, especially since it has the grid to pull off a decent urban fabric going south towards the Medical Center.

The southwest side of downtown going toward the medical center is developing with midrise and other development. I'm not sure about the date of the photo showing that area above. The east side is still mainly warehouse and industrial, but that side is changing as well. There's still a lot of infill to be accomplished, but a drive through the area shows significant changes at street level. I'd like to see the area between downtown and the med center fill in with a lot of highrises, as is occurring in so many other areas of the city.

[JManc]

Those aerials are quite a few years old.

[TexasPlaya]

Originally Posted by Ant131531

It's mindblogging how undeveloped the area around downtown Houston is. With all of the development, I would have thought to have seen more midrises outside of the freeway loop. It still looks rather unimpressive, especially since it has the grid to pull off a decent urban fabric going south towards the Medical Center.

It's quite a bit worse than it's peers. The 80s oil bust really killed downtown and the surrounding areas as most of the new developed leapfrogged the inner suburbs and core to form the new suburbs (Sugar Land, Katy, The Woodlands, Pearland, etc.).

[rellott]

I'm 24, been working with a major O&G company in downtown for the past year as a contractor and recently got it extended thru next year with a 25% markup. My company has scaled back on all fronts and even laid off people at all levels. In my department specifically, we went from fixin to hire 3 new contractors to laying off 4 (all in their twenties). Budgets have been reshaped, non-essential position hiring freeze enacted, and doing more work in-house rather than having a vendor do it. We're extremely diverse and grew 500% during the last "slump" in the early 2000's. We see this being a temporary slump with prices growing thru summer and ending probably around $80 this time next year. However, we know if prices continue to fall, specifically around $30/barrel, well, no one is safe at that point. We saw this coming as well and recently made a major acquisition for storage and have a low debt. The smaller companies with high debt and less diversity will suffer.

As for the entire Houston economy no one can really predict how it's going to play out. Yes, we are much more diversified, but there will still be major set backs. Mind you, there have been thousands of people from all over the US move here that did not experience the 80's and may have invested, planned, and started up companies not prepared for this kind of surprise slump. Essentially, this slump is going to be the prime example of Company Darwinism.

[AviationGuy]

Originally Posted by TexasPlaya

It's quite a bit worse than it's peers. The 80s oil bust really killed downtown and the surrounding areas as most of the new developed leapfrogged the inner suburbs and core to form the new suburbs (Sugar Land, Katy, The Woodlands, Pearland, etc.).

But downtown is booming and the surrounding areas (at least southwest and east) are developing. It's taken time to get going, but it's happening so I don't feel as negative about the area near downtown as I used to.

[Ant131531]

Originally Posted by rellott

I'm 24, been working with a major O&G company in downtown for the past year as a contractor and recently got it extended thru next year with a 25% markup. My company has scaled back on all fronts and even laid off people at all levels. In my department specifically, we went from fixin to hire 3 new contractors to laying off 4 (all in their twenties). Budgets have been reshaped, non-essential position hiring freeze enacted, and doing more work in-house rather than having a vendor do it. We're extremely diverse and grew 500% during the last "slump" in the early 2000's. We see this being a temporary slump with prices growing thru summer and ending probably around $80 this time next year. However, we know if prices continue to fall, specifically around $30/barrel, well, no one is safe at that point. We saw this coming as well and recently made a major acquisition for storage and have a low debt. The smaller companies with high debt and less diversity will suffer.

As for the entire Houston economy no one can really predict how it's going to play out. Yes, we are much more diversified, but there will still be major set backs. Mind you, there have been thousands of people from all over the US move here that did not experience the 80's and may have invested, planned, and started up companies not prepared for this kind of surprise slump. Essentially, this slump is going to be the prime example of Company Darwinism.

It's incredible how quickly it happened too. Houston was literally on top of the world just 4-5 months back. Now all of a sudden, this surprise slump is happening. Literally, Houston was going to have sooo much office space under construction. Residential will still do well like it is here in Atlanta.

Gas prices will go back up. I'm not optimistic about gas prices staying this low(though I'd like them to be for financial reasons).

[TexasPlaya]

Originally Posted by AviationGuy

But downtown is booming and the surrounding areas (at least southwest and east) are developing. It's taken time to get going, but it's happening so I don't feel as negative about the area near downtown as I used to.

Downtown is booming and Midtown is booming, but it is still pretty bad everywhere else. The immediate east side is about where Midtown was in 2000, so perhaps it can catch the next the boom(s).

[Trae]

Originally Posted by austlar1

Houston and other energy economy cities will definitely see a slump due to the current price situation. In Houston there is a lot of spec office building construction recently completed or currently underway amounting to several million square feet that will have to be absorbed. New commercial construction starts are likely to stall out, and residential construction may also slow down. Still, I don't think it is time for all you Houston haters out there to start dancing on Houston's grave. Houston will ride this out just like it has done in the past, and I am sure that there will be a time in the not so distant future when Houston will again surge forward with new construction projects. The slowdown in the Houston economy will be a white collar slowdown (engineers, lawyers, accountants, etc.) for the most part. Refining operations and port operations will continue as usual. The blue collar slowdown will take place in those parts of the country where production happens, places like North Dakota, West Texas, Colorado, etc. I guess there may also be a slowdown of offshore (deep drilling) activity that will have more impact on places like New Orleans than it will Houston, although a lot of the planning for offshore operations takes place in Houston.

I didn't read the rest of the thread before replying to this post, so forgive me if it has already been mentioned, but the residential construction in the city will continue, even if office construction slows. There is still more demand than supply here, which is a big reason why rents have skyrocketed across the city (mainly in the loop and west side). Not to mention a lot of the new residential construction were built on lots that were formerly garden style apartment complexes. There are still jobs being created and people have to live somewhere.

Originally Posted by Owlhorn

Glad DFW got out of that business for the most part. There are still some of the larger family companies left, but its a very small part of the economy. There's been lots of talk of lower oil prices helping the huge and growing logistics and shipping industry in DFW. But there has to be some ripple effect. I'm sure lots of those goods go to Houston or Southern Louisiana.

It's still a lucrative business and brings many high paying jobs. DFW has never been as reliant on the energy industry like Houston. The economy in DFW mostly mirrors the US economy. Still, this isn't the 80s, and Houston will weather a potential slowdown much easier than then. Besides, a lot of that logistics growth in DFW relies on the port in Houston. There have been more distribution centers built down there too.

Originally Posted by Ant131531

It's mindblogging how undeveloped the area around downtown Houston is. With all of the development, I would have thought to have seen more midrises outside of the freeway loop. It still looks rather unimpressive, especially since it has the grid to pull off a decent urban fabric going south towards the Medical Center.

Those are older photos. Probably around 2007-08. Hess Tower isn't even completed yet, and the MLS stadium isn't even there. There has also been a huge surge in townhome developments on the other side of the loop near the stadium heading east. It is block after block now of new townhomes with many more currently under construction. It's actually quite impressive how much the area has grown around there.

Originally Posted by Ant131531

It's incredible how quickly it happened too. Houston was literally on top of the world just 4-5 months back. Now all of a sudden, this surprise slump is happening. Literally, Houston was going to have sooo much office space under construction. Residential will still do well like it is here in Atlanta.

Gas prices will go back up. I'm not optimistic about gas prices staying this low(though I'd like them to be for financial reasons).

Houston still currently has a ton of office space. More than any other US city and that is with the slump.