Building Permits by MSA: May 2013 update

[dc_denizen]

To give a sense of new housing construction in 2013 so far, below is a link to the building permits by MSA data for May year to date.

http://www.census.gov/construction/b...t3yu201305.txt

Highlights:

Austin @ 10,000 units, 6100 multifamily (defined as 5 or more dwellings/unit)
Atlanta @ 10,000 units, 3400 multifamily
Chicago @ 4,200 units, 1300 multifamily
Denver @ 6400 units, 3400 multifamily
Houston @ 22000 units, 6000 multifamily: wow
Los Angeles @ 9000 units, 5600 multifamily
Miami 10000 units, 7600 multifamily
New York 12800 units, 8500 multifamily
Washington 10000 units, 3600 multifamily

The Canadian data, for comparison (note that Canadian multifamily includes everything above 1 unit, while the US multifamily is everything above 5 units/dwelling.

Toronto @ 12,300 units, 8,700 multifamily link
Vancouver @ 8,300 units, 5,700 multifamily

Phoenix and Chicago seem to continue in the doldrums, but Houston, Denver, Miami, New York, and Austin are on a tear. Halfway through the year, several cities have already equalled or exceeded their numbers from 2012.

[memph]

I'm kind of confused about the single vs multi family classification. In the US, would a semi detached home be a 2-unit structure?

Semi detached homes make up a big part of new suburban housing in Toronto: http://goo.gl/maps/r3DC2

They're usually functionally identical to detached homes, except you share one wall is shared (ie freehold and no HOA).

However, 2 unit homes seem to make up a miniscule fraction of new housing in the US, are they really building that little semi detached or are those just put in a different category?

[fflint]

Bay Area @ 8,622, 5,328 multifamily

[mhays]

Definitions depend on who's counting. Local building departments and codes don't follow the census department's lead. Just like "highrise" and a lot of other terms, different groups set definitions for their own use, but you can choose for yourself. The link doesn't specify a preference.

PS, this is about privately-owned housing. Public housing, public dorms, etc. don't count.

Obviously, not all building permits turn into projects. Those of us in construction know the drill....great that we got the permit, but will the developer pull the trigger? This can vary by locality, as getting a permit in some places is way easier or harder with very different lead times involved.

[SpawnOfVulcan]

I wish that data set was easily importable into Excel so we could see the percentage of total permits that multifamily made up... If anyone wants to figure that out, I'll give you a dollar?

[mhays]

Originally Posted by fflint

Bay Area @ 7,060, 6,789 multifamily

You're counting something different than the link. It has the 7,060 figure but says 2,271 were single-unit.

Seattle says 7,095 of which 3,884 were single-unit. Anecdotally, we have a sizeable wave of detached townhouses, but I suspect the majority is just non-dense houses.

Some inner-city Seattle developers think there's risk of overbuilding, while others are gangbusters. The new wave started completing in 2012, and 2013-2014 is the crest of a wave. Some (like me) think it'll keep going, but it's slowing down a bit. Here's a year-by-year count by district 1995-2012, during which the net addition was 53,707 units, of which 40,034 were in "urban village" districts, i.e. nodes of various types: http://www.seattle.gov/dpd/cms/group...dpdd017580.pdf

[fflint]

Originally Posted by mhays

You're counting something different than the link. It has the 7,060 figure but says 2,271 were single-unit.

I also forgot to add the other MSAs. Corrected.

[dave8721]

Originally Posted by dc_denizen

To give a sense of new housing construction in 2013 so far, below is a link to the building permits by MSA data for May year to date.

http://www.census.gov/construction/b...t3yu201305.txt

Highlights:

Austin @ 10,000 units, 6100 multifamily (defined as 5 or more dwellings/unit)
Atlanta @ 10,000 units, 3400 multifamily
Chicago @ 4,200 units, 1300 multifamily
Denver @ 6400 units, 3400 multifamily
Houston @ 22000 units, 6000 multifamily: wow
Los Angeles @ 9000 units, 5600 multifamily
Miami 10000 units, 7600 multifamily
New York 12800 units, 8500 multifamily
Washington 10000 units, 3600 multifamily

The Canadian data, for comparison (note that Canadian multifamily includes everything above 1 unit, while the US multifamily is everything above 5 units/dwelling.

Toronto @ 12,300 units, 8,700 multifamily link
Vancouver @ 8,300 units, 5,700 multifamily

Phoenix and Chicago seem to continue in the doldrums, but Houston, Denver, Miami, New York, and Austin are on a tear. Halfway through the year, several cities have already equalled or exceeded their numbers from 2012.

Just to put those multifamily into % of the total permitted units:
Miami: 76%
New York: 66%
LA: 62%
Austin: 61%
Denver: 53%
Washington: 36%
Atlanta: 34%
Chicago: 31%
Houston: 27%

Toronto: 71%
Vancouver: 69%

[SHOFEAR]

Edmonton CMA January to May Totals http://www.eaa.ab.ca/images/2013_06_10_0900_epe.pdf

January to may starts 2013
single detached 2,211
multi family 4,005

Assuming I am reading the link correctly there have been 14,711 starts from May 2012 to May 2013

It's amazing to think that Edmontons housing starts are comparible to some of the largest cities in North America. Unemployment is essentailly zero.....times are goooood.

[jaxg8r1]

Portland 5116, with 2718 being 5 or more units (53%)

[dave8721]

By numbers of structures 5 units or more (what the heck is going on in Austin?):
New York: 343
Austin: 227
Los Angeles: 204
Miami: 200
Houston: 164
Portland: 111
Orlando: 105
Riverside: 102
Boston: 99
Seattle: 95
Philadelphia: 92
San Diego: 90
Charlotte: 89
Dallas: 89
San Jose: 83
Columbus: 78
Chicago: 78
Tampa: 78
Pheonix: 74
Denver: 73
San Antonio: 70
San Francisco: 63

(off the list Atlanta-46 and Washington-54 which fall below many smaller metro's).

[atlantaguy]

^How does that really matter, though? It just means D.C. and Atlanta are putting up larger buildings.

Total number of units for both is up there.

[brickell]

Originally Posted by quattordici

I wish that data set was easily importable into Excel so we could see the percentage of total permits that multifamily made up... If anyone wants to figure that out, I'll give you a dollar?

Copy and paste. Here's the various top 10s.

All Units
Houston-Sugar Land-Baytown,* TX 21,568
Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington,* TX 13,134
New York-Northern New Jersey-Long Isl 12,814
Miami-Fort Lauderdale-Pompano Beach,* 10,331
Austin-Round Rock-San Marcos,* TX 10,052
Washington-Arlington-Alexandria,* 9,978
Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Marietta,* GA 9,960
Los Angeles-Long Beach-Santa Ana,* 9,085
Phoenix-Mesa-Glendale,* AZ 7,728
Orlando-Kissimmee-Sanford,* FL 7,483


Single units

Houston-Sugar Land-Baytown,* TX 15,083
Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington,* TX 8,896
Washington-Arlington-Alexandria,* 6,355
Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Marietta,* GA 6,255
Phoenix-Mesa-Glendale,* AZ 5,718
Orlando-Kissimmee-Sanford,* FL 3,917
Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue,* WA 3,884
Austin-Round Rock-San Marcos,* TX 3,853
Charlotte-Gastonia-Rock Hill,* NC-SC 3,716
Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater,* FL 3,501


% of Single Family Units (Over 1000 units) Top 10 and bottom 10

Augusta-Richmond County, GA-SC 99.6%
Baton Rouge, LA 95.4%
Greenville-Maudlin-Easley,* SC 92.7%
Las Vegas-Paradise,* NV 92.5%
Pittsburgh,* PA 92.3%
New Orleans-Metairie-Kenner,* LA 90.3%
Sacramento--Arden-Arcade--Roseville,* 89.1%
Myrtle Beach-North Myrtle Beach-Conwa 88.0%
Des Moines-West Des Moines,* IA 87.4%
Boise City-Nampa,* ID 87.2%
...
Denver-Aurora-Broomfield,* CO 44.0%
Boston-Cambridge-Quincy,* MA-NH 43.3%
Columbus,* OH 42.5%
Austin-Round Rock-San Marcos,* TX 38.3%
San Francisco-Oakland-Fremont,* CA 34.6%
Los Angeles-Long Beach-Santa Ana,* 32.8%
San Diego-Carlsbad-San Marcos,* CA 30.6%
San Jose-Sunnyvale-Santa Clara,* CA 28.1%
New York-Northern New Jersey-Long Isl 26.4%
Miami-Fort Lauderdale-Pompano Beach,* 25.4%

% of SF (over 2000 units total) Top 10 (bottom 10 doesn't change)

Las Vegas-Paradise,* NV 92.5%
St. Louis,* MO-IL 86.8%
Detroit-Warren-Livonia,* MI 86.3%
Jacksonville,* FL 84.1%
Indianapolis-Carmel,* IN 82.4%
Oklahoma City,* OK 82.4%
Phoenix-Mesa-Glendale,* AZ 74.0%
Baltimore-Towson,* MD 73.9%
North Port-Bradenton-Sarasota,* FL 73.1%
Raleigh-Cary,* NC 70.5%

Duplexes - Top 10

New York-Northern New Jersey-Long Isl 600
Los Angeles-Long Beach-Santa Ana,* 270
Boston-Cambridge-Quincy,* MA-NH 156
Chicago-Joliet-Naperville,* IL-IN-WI 152
Nashville-Davidson--Murfreesboro-Fran 132
Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue,* WA 122
Philadelphia-Camden-Wilmington,* 110
Austin-Round Rock-San Marcos,* TX 104
Denver-Aurora-Broomfield,* CO 104
Killeen-Temple-Fort Hood, TX 98

3s and 4s - top 10

New York-Northern New Jersey-Long Isl 286
Philadelphia-Camden-Wilmington,* 239
El Paso, TX 211
Los Angeles-Long Beach-Santa Ana,* 175
San Diego-Carlsbad-San Marcos,* CA 139
Chicago-Joliet-Naperville,* IL-IN-WI 131
Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue,* WA 122
Phoenix-Mesa-Glendale,* AZ 109
McAllen-Edinburg-Mission,* TX 104
Myrtle Beach-North Myrtle Beach-Conwa 100

5+

New York-Northern New Jersey-Long Isl 8,542
Miami-Fort Lauderdale-Pompano Beach,* 7,623
Houston-Sugar Land-Baytown,* TX 6,446
Austin-Round Rock-San Marcos,* TX 6,008
Los Angeles-Long Beach-Santa Ana,* 5,660
Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington,* TX 4,135
Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Marietta,* GA 3,636
Washington-Arlington-Alexandria,* 3,561
Orlando-Kissimmee-Sanford,* FL 3,527
Denver-Aurora-Broomfield,* CO 3,467

% of total units 5+ (over 1000 units total) - top 10

Miami-Fort Lauderdale-Pompano Beach,* 73.8%
San Jose-Sunnyvale-Santa Clara,* CA 68.4%
New York-Northern New Jersey-Long Isl 66.7%
San Diego-Carlsbad-San Marcos,* CA 64.5%
San Francisco-Oakland-Fremont,* CA 63.5%
Los Angeles-Long Beach-Santa Ana,* 62.3%
Austin-Round Rock-San Marcos,* TX 59.8%
Denver-Aurora-Broomfield,* CO 54.1%
Columbus,* OH 53.7%
Portland-Vancouver-Hillsboro,* OR-WA 53.1%

Number of structures with 5+ units

New York-Northern New Jersey-Long Isl 343
Austin-Round Rock-San Marcos,* TX 227
Los Angeles-Long Beach-Santa Ana,* 204
Miami-Fort Lauderdale-Pompano Beach,* 200
Houston-Sugar Land-Baytown,* TX 164
Portland-Vancouver-Hillsboro,* OR-WA 111
Orlando-Kissimmee-Sanford,* FL 105
Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario,* 102
Boston-Cambridge-Quincy,* MA-NH 99
Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue,* WA 95

Average size of structure with 5+ units (total units 1,000+)

Minneapolis-St. Paul-Bloomington,* 83.6
Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Marietta,* GA 79.0
Washington-Arlington-Alexandria,* 65.9
McAllen-Edinburg-Mission,* TX 61.0
Sacramento--Arden-Arcade--Roseville,* 60.7
Denver-Aurora-Broomfield,* CO 47.5
Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington,* TX 46.5
San Francisco-Oakland-Fremont,* CA 44.3
Jacksonville,* FL 41.2
Houston-Sugar Land-Baytown,* TX 39.3

Total # of structures (using 3.5 to calculate 3s and 4s)

Houston-Sugar Land-Baytown,* TX 15,141
Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington,* TX 8,989
Washington-Arlington-Alexandria,* 6,451
Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Marietta,* GA 6,356
Phoenix-Mesa-Glendale,* AZ 5,792
Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue,* WA 4,011
Orlando-Kissimmee-Sanford,* FL 3,963
Austin-Round Rock-San Marcos,* TX 3,956
New York-Northern New Jersey-Long Isl 3,793
Charlotte-Gastonia-Rock Hill,* NC-SC 3,759

Average size of structure - top 10

Salisbury, MD 10.22
Morgantown, WV 10.00
Grand Forks, ND-MN 8.13
Macon, GA 7.46
Napa, CA 6.12
Trenton-Ewing,* NJ 6.06
Lawrence, KS 3.88
Bridgeport-Stamford-Norwalk, CT 3.71
Miami-Fort Lauderdale-Pompano Beach,* 3.61
Lafayette, IN 3.60

Average size of structure (1,000 + total units) - top 10

Miami-Fort Lauderdale-Pompano Beach,* 3.61
New York-Northern New Jersey-Long Isl 3.12
San Jose-Sunnyvale-Santa Clara,* CA 3.09
San Diego-Carlsbad-San Marcos,* CA 2.87
San Francisco-Oakland-Fremont,* CA 2.72
Los Angeles-Long Beach-Santa Ana,* 2.70
Austin-Round Rock-San Marcos,* TX 2.42
Denver-Aurora-Broomfield,* CO 2.17
Columbus,* OH 2.16
Madison,* WI 2.14

Rust belt (Bottom 20 of total # of units)

Muncie, IN 15
Elmira, NY 13
Steubenville-Weirton, OH-WV 13
Lima, OH 11
Pine Bluff, AR 9
Wheeling, WV-OH 8
Altoona, PA 8
Battle Creek, MI 8
Binghamton, NY 7
Decatur, IL 7
Kankakee-Bradley, IL 7
Niles-Benton Harbor, MI 7
Pittsfield, MA 7
Utica-Rome, NY 6
Bay City, MI 5
Johnstown, PA 5
Sherman-Denison, TX 3
Williamsport, PA 2
Sandusky, OH 1
Danville, IL 0



* My math may very well be off. So don't quote me.

[brickell]

Originally Posted by dave8721

By numbers of structures 5 units or more (what the heck is going on in Austin?):

I'm going to guess it's a lot of cheap suburban apartment complexes, college housing and maybe a few condos.

These are metro wide numbers after all.

[Shasta]

Is this for buildings permitted in the first quarter of this year or for units under construction? I ask because the Houston number for multi-family units appears very low.

According to CBRE's 1st quarter market report, there were 6,149 multi-family units under construction Inside the Loop and 12,049 total in the Metro Area.

There are cranes for apartment towers and mid-rises stretching from downtown West towards the Galleria area all over the sky.

[Crawford]

Originally Posted by Shasta

Is this for buildings permitted in the first quarter of this year or for units under construction?

It's buildings permitted. If you see something u/c, it was permitted a while ago.

[mhays]

Originally Posted by Crawford

It's buildings permitted. If you see something u/c, it was permitted a while ago.

Not necessarily. In my city, it's common to start the next day, and most start within a few weeks.

Often projects "break ground" with demo and/or early site prep before the first phase of building permit.

Most major projects here phase their permits, like "shoring/excavation" followed by "foundations and below-grade structure" and "above grade construction". Jobs typically start upon award of the shoring permit.

The owner and contractor are usually coming to a negotiated agreement on price right before the job starts, and sometimes after the job starts. Detailed estimating and contingencies cover the variables that can happen during permit review, like reviewers requiring a higher fire rating for a certain wall, or whatever.

[zilfondel]

I don't think that you can just look at 2013 in isolation from the rest of history. There have been some definite trends towards infill construction as suburban subdivisions were falling out of favor, even before the recession took hold.

For instance, this is a report from 2010 citing the narrowing of the gap between construction % between the city and suburbs over a period of 1990-2008 (pre collapse):

Residential Construction Trends in America’s Metropolitan Regions 
http://www.epa.gov/smartgrowth/pdf/m..._trends_10.pdf

Many of the metro areas experienced a steady trend towards the city itself hosting more construction.

Large institutional builders have also switched gears, which greatly influences the market as a whole. These guys don't just switch back and forth on a whim - they are following the market!

For the first time in a century, America’s largest cities are growing faster than their suburbs. An Associated Press story widely covered in the media yesterday, including in Time, said the findings from new 2011 census estimates reveal a “dramatic switch” from the previous pattern of suburban dominance.

http://switchboard.nrdc.org/blogs/kb...rth_of_ce.html

I thought this was an interesting piece - our largest homebuilder has almost completely stopped building in the 'burbs and now favors infill building (tear down or underutilized lots) to build new SFH/rowhouses:

When Renaissance Homes filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy in 2008, the builder was known for its sprawling subdivisions on the fringes of the Portland market.

Two years after emerging with a reorganization plan, the company has positioned itself as the No. 1 builder within the city of Portland -- building mostly one-off houses in long-established neighborhoods.

It's an unusual move for a builder the size of Renaissance. Infill development is expensive and risky, and builders lose many of the advantages that come with scale.

But company president Randy Sebastian thinks the days of building on the fringes -- the strategy that got his company into trouble -- is coming to an end.

"You're not going to see us in Gresham or Forest Grove anymore," Sebastian said. "That's not where our customers want to be."

Renaissance is still building in two suburban subdivisions in West Linn and Lake Oswego.

But about two-thirds of the company's new homes are in Portland, and that's made Renaissance the top general contractor within the city. By the end of the year, Renaissance will have built about 30 homes in Portland. The goal next year is 60 homes in Portland, then 100 in 2013.

http://www.oregonlive.com/business/i...ge_renais.html


While sprawl may still happen, I see no letup in people's interest in urban living - although many people that I know have a very difficult time actually getting into a unit or house in the city, as they are all full. If you are saying that 2013 onwards will see the entire US being the opposite trend of 1990-2012 and a reverting back to suburban construction dominating, it doesn't seem likely. Planning, design and construction is a time consuming process, when projects go in the pipeline, they take time to come to fruition. Its also likely that a lot of suburban developers were sufficiently burned (anyone remember the house flippers a few years back?) that they are either out of the market entirely, or again, are focusing their efforts were the money is these days - in the urban market.

Low vacancy rates in the city are driving some people to settle for housing further out, but construction of multifamily housing in the city proper of Portland seem to be going at full steam still. The suburbs are not growing as fast as they used to, but part of that is our metro area is not allocating infrastructure dollars to far-flung exurban areas like they used to.

[Crawford]

Originally Posted by mhays

Not necessarily. In my city, it's common to start the next day, and most start within a few weeks.

Ok, maybe in Seattle, something is different, but in most places you don't receive a building permit and start the next day. That's usually the first step, not the last one.

And in any case, you aren't going to see construction cranes the next day. It takes a long time before a building goes from groundbreaking to crane erection, which is what the poster alluded to in Houston.

[Rail Claimore]

I knew Houston was on fire, but damn: it practically doubles-up Dallas. And Atlanta, Miami, and LA are definitely on the comeback after the bust. Can't really say the same for Phoenix and Vegas though.