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Old Posted Jan 25, 2015, 1:31 AM
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See What Your City Will Be Like in 15 Years

A Tour of America’s Futures


Read More: http://datatools.urban.org/features/...tures/#feature

Explore The Map Tool: http://datatools.urban.org/features/...s-futures/#map

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What will America look like in 2030? We can already see that the population is aging and becoming more diverse, but how will those trends play out at the local and regional levels? And what if, in the future, we live longer or have more babies? How would those trends affect the population in different cities and states?

- To help visualize the future, the Urban Institute developed a tool as part of the “Mapping America’s Futures” series that projects local-level population trends out to 2030 (the button on the right will take you there). Pick low, average, or high rates for birth, death, and migration—the three drivers of population change—and the map changes in response.

- The rates are all reasonable assumptions, based on historical trends. In other words, it won’t show a future where no children are born and no one dies, but we could imagine a future where people move around more or birthrates fall by 20 percent. With the tool, people can explore several possible “what-if” scenarios—possible futures—and see how they’ll play out across the country.

- To better understand how population projections can help cities and states plan for change, let’s look at two places on two different trajectories: Atlanta, Georgia, and Youngstown, Ohio. --- Mapping America’s Futures divides the nation into 740 commuting zones: places connected by local economies, which can cross state boundaries, and that include metro and rural areas. An important difference between the Youngstown and Atlanta commuting zones is what happens when you change the migration rate—that is, the rate of immigration as well as domestic migration within the United States.

- A once-booming industrial powerhouse, the Youngstown area has been losing residents for decades. Many other manufacturing centers, from Milwaukee to Pittsburgh, grew slowly or lost population over the past decade, following a long-time trend of people migrating from the North to the South. --- In 2010, the Youngstown commuting zone had a population of 762,509, down from 807,265 in 2000. Prevailing migration trends are away from the industrial North and toward the South; many economic changes underlie those trends. If migration slowed, Youngstown might retain more of its young, working-age population.

- “Fewer people means less demand for housing, which means lower property tax revenues,” said Rolf Pendall, director of Urban’s Metropolitan Housing and Communities Policy Center. “And it will cause a strain on government resources because the out-migration would reduce the labor force,” decreasing tax revenue to pay for things like roads, schools, utilities, and public services. --- Youngstown is also projected to have a high and growing share of residents age 65 and older—up 42 percent by 2030 under the average scenario. This is the age range when people typically retire, further lowering labor force participation.

- In Atlanta, the same forces have different effects. The Atlanta commuting zone grew by 899,149 people from 2000 to 2010, many of whom were drawn to the area’s economic growth and warm climate. Other areas in the South also grew, including commuting zones from southern Virginia to Birmingham, Alabama; Austin, Dallas, Houston, and other parts of Texas, propelled by high oil and gas prices; and central Florida, which was buoyed by tourism and real estate construction. Unlike in Youngstown, migration favors Atlanta and other fast-growth areas.

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Old Posted Jan 25, 2015, 2:49 AM
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basic demographic extrapolations.
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Old Posted Jan 25, 2015, 4:22 AM
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