COVID-19 coronavirus disease in Ottawa

[HighwayStar]

Originally Posted by J.OT13

Governments have jumped the gun far too many times with "Covid is over". There will be another variant and another wave, hospitals will be overcapacity again, and we will have to re-instate a whole bunch of restrictions again.
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I'm also frustrated with World Governments who are not doing enough to vaccinate the entire planet. Taking care of #1 is not the way to do things in these types of world crises.

This may not be a popular post, but I would like to share the experience I've had living in Phoenix since shortly before Covid started (wife and I moved here for work in 2019). All the time I've been in constant contact with friends and family all over Canada.

Watching the Covid train-wreck unfold for the past 2 years, I can't begin to say how much happier we both are to be stuck here rather than in Canada.
Arizona is a "purple" state (50% Rep, 50% Dem by population), however there is a staunch Republican Gov at this time. (note - I am about as far from a Republican as one can get).

The first 2 months of Covid were a zombie apocalypse like everywhere else. Then shortly after that, the metric was simply, "If the Health Care system can keep up, then keep restrictions to a minimum". And for the record, the Health Care system was *never* overloaded here. A website was updated daily with metrics for all local hospitals in terms of regular capacity, ICU capacity and Covid cases.

For probably 6-8 months after that, there were 50% capacity restrictions on restaurants (indoors and out), gyms, etc. Once vaccinations started in earnest, all restrictions were dropped (including on schools), and remain so to this day (about a year now). There were pockets of minor restrictions when there were bumps (i.e. Omicron), but they never lasted long.

For the past year, Masks have been "optional" (except airports and medical facilities), however in stores especially, I would estimate mask wearing around 40-50%... all voluntary. Other than masks, a visitor would hardly know there was a pandemic on. I've never once been asked anywhere for proof of vaccination.

The air border was *never* shut. For most of the past 2 years Canadians have been able to fly here with no restrictions at all (no vax card, no negative test, etc). Only in the past 3 months has the negative test requirement been added. I'm actually very concerned to fly back to Canada given the mixed bag of testing, quarantining rules, etc. I really don't want to pay for a trip and then get stuck in some hotel room for 10 days or something.

I know.. "US has 3 times the death rate as Canada".. isn't that worth the effort of restrictions?

Well, Vax reluctance is much higher here, and that certainly has an impact on who precisely was dying. Also there are large pockets of poverty where people have no access to health care, which is actually a separate, sad problem in itself.

Probably 1/2 the people I know (Canada and here) have had some form of Covid now, so being triple vaxed I'm really not worried at all.

Again, health system was never overwhelmed, which (say what you want about US Healthcare) is something that maybe Canada needs to look at. Not suggesting a US Style system (having compared the 2 firsthand, I'd for the most part prefer the Canada system), but maybe Canada could take some lessons in physician ratios and Hospital/ICU capacities.

Not trying to stir any pot, but I'm just trying to demonstrate that the endless (and confusing) restrictions and sets of rules may not be as helpful as envisioned. Talking to people in Canada, they are so fed up with the endless lockdowns and restrictions.... whereas here, life is pretty much normal for the past year. Having been in the unique position to compare 2 very different approaches to the pandemic, and I know which I prefer ..

[YOWetal]

Originally Posted by phil235

Fully agree that the science is complex, and I've definitely heard people use "science" (and by that they mean some cherry-picked fact from a media report) to justify some very strange positions. I was more referring to the advice of the Chief Public Officer of Health, and the science advisory table, as they are there specifically to review the science and local conditions and make recommendations based on their expertise in the field. I don't think that they are recommending that we drop the mask mandate yet. In my opinion, the decision on timing of removal of mandates should be as de-politicized as possible.

Not as relevant in this case maybe but generally you can't only listen to public health we need leaders who weigh mental health, economics and other impacts. Masks seem harmless so there is a lot of why not but we still allow cloth masks which are proven to not work and a large percentage of people are not wearing them properly so in many senses it is false protection.

I agree though we should listen to experts not be give into protestors but also not the sizeable boomer voters who are paranoid and fine with everyone staying home forever. It is certainly these groups Ford is balancing rather than inconvenience of masks vs very small reduction in transmission which is probably the real trade off.

[YOWetal]

Originally Posted by HighwayStar

This may not be a popular post, but I would like to share the experience I've had living in Phoenix since shortly before Covid started (wife and I moved here for work in 2019). All the time I've been in constant contact with friends and family all over Canada.

Watching the Covid train-wreck unfold for the past 2 years, I can't begin to say how much happier we both are to be stuck here rather than in Canada.
Arizona is a "purple" state (50% Rep, 50% Dem by population), however there is a staunch Republican Gov at this time. (note - I am about as far from a Republican as one can get).

The first 2 months of Covid were a zombie apocalypse like everywhere else. Then shortly after that, the metric was simply, "If the Health Care system can keep up, then keep restrictions to a minimum". And for the record, the Health Care system was *never* overloaded here. A website was updated daily with metrics for all local hospitals in terms of regular capacity, ICU capacity and Covid cases.

For probably 6-8 months after that, there were 50% capacity restrictions on restaurants (indoors and out), gyms, etc. Once vaccinations started in earnest, all restrictions were dropped (including on schools), and remain so to this day (about a year now). There were pockets of minor restrictions when there were bumps (i.e. Omicron), but they never lasted long.

For the past year, Masks have been "optional" (except airports and medical facilities), however in stores especially, I would estimate mask wearing around 40-50%... all voluntary. Other than masks, a visitor would hardly know there was a pandemic on. I've never once been asked anywhere for proof of vaccination.

The air border was *never* shut. For most of the past 2 years Canadians have been able to fly here with no restrictions at all (no vax card, no negative test, etc). Only in the past 3 months has the negative test requirement been added. I'm actually very concerned to fly back to Canada given the mixed bag of testing, quarantining rules, etc. I really don't want to pay for a trip and then get stuck in some hotel room for 10 days or something.

I know.. "US has 3 times the death rate as Canada".. isn't that worth the effort of restrictions?

Well, Vax reluctance is much higher here, and that certainly has an impact on who precisely was dying. Also there are large pockets of poverty where people have no access to health care, which is actually a separate, sad problem in itself.

Probably 1/2 the people I know (Canada and here) have had some form of Covid now, so being triple vaxed I'm really not worried at all.

Again, health system was never overwhelmed, which (say what you want about US Healthcare) is something that maybe Canada needs to look at. Not suggesting a US Style system (having compared the 2 firsthand, I'd for the most part prefer the Canada system), but maybe Canada could take some lessons in physician ratios and Hospital/ICU capacities.

Not trying to stir any pot, but I'm just trying to demonstrate that the endless (and confusing) restrictions and sets of rules may not be as helpful as envisioned. Talking to people in Canada, they are so fed up with the endless lockdowns and restrictions.... whereas here, life is pretty much normal for the past year. Having been in the unique position to compare 2 very different approaches to the pandemic, and I know which I prefer ..

I mostly agree with you. Have travelled a lot during the pandemic (mostly for work) and Canada is an extreme outlier. That said our health care system is extremely low in ICU so we would much more easily be overwhelmed. We have also saved many lives relative to similar jurisdictions. I think long term the cost will be seen as not worth it as children suffer the long term effects of remote learning etc. and we pay back our debt. We might not notice the debt problem relative to our peer countries because we aren't that much worse off but we started the pandemic with such a good fiscal position. But a more measured response would certainly allow a lot more spending that saves and enriches lives over the next 40 years.

[phil235]

Originally Posted by YOWetal

Not as relevant in this case maybe but generally you can't only listen to public health we need leaders who weigh mental health, economics and other impacts. Masks seem harmless so there is a lot of why not but we still allow cloth masks which are proven to not work and a large percentage of people are not wearing them properly so in many senses it is false protection.

I agree though we should listen to experts not be give into protestors but also not the sizeable boomer voters who are paranoid and fine with everyone staying home forever. It is certainly these groups Ford is balancing rather than inconvenience of masks vs very small reduction in transmission which is probably the real trade off.

For questions like whose approach was ultimately best and what the relative economic impact was, it’s still too early to tell. We’ll need to wait a few years until proper data is available and full studies can be done that take into account all of the impacts. Obviously there is a balance to be achieved between risk and restrictions.

For me it’s not so much a question of boomers dictating the approach, as many of them seem to be taking chances throughout the pandemic that I have not. I’m more influenced by the difficulty accepting very high death rates among certain groups of peoples. We really don’t seem to have a solution to that, regardless of ICU capacity. Until we have reasonable protections in place, I’m still willing to make what I’d consider to be reasonable sacrifices, though my personal risk is low. The current measured approach to opening suits me fine,
as the restrictions are pretty limited really.

Maybe we are closer to that point now, but I’m not convinced that full opening can be done without putting a huge burden on vulnerable people.

[SidetrackedSue]

Originally Posted by YOWetal

That said our health care system is extremely low in ICU so we would much more easily be overwhelmed.

No kidding. It is my understanding that the reason we had restrictions with omicron was not due to too many covid cases but due to too few health care workers (because they all were off having tested positive.)

As recently as the past few weeks, one of the Valley hospitals had to shut their ICU due to a staff outbreak. Yet we were still relaxing restrictions because the number of cases were 'down.'

This points to a system severely on the brink, where ER or ICU access cannot be guaranteed due to staff shortages. Of course, those in Gatineau are already familiar with this situation.

[J.OT13]

Originally Posted by HighwayStar

This may not be a popular post, but I would like to share the experience I've had living in Phoenix since shortly before Covid started (wife and I moved here for work in 2019). All the time I've been in constant contact with friends and family all over Canada.

Watching the Covid train-wreck unfold for the past 2 years, I can't begin to say how much happier we both are to be stuck here rather than in Canada.
Arizona is a "purple" state (50% Rep, 50% Dem by population), however there is a staunch Republican Gov at this time. (note - I am about as far from a Republican as one can get).

The first 2 months of Covid were a zombie apocalypse like everywhere else. Then shortly after that, the metric was simply, "If the Health Care system can keep up, then keep restrictions to a minimum". And for the record, the Health Care system was *never* overloaded here. A website was updated daily with metrics for all local hospitals in terms of regular capacity, ICU capacity and Covid cases.

For probably 6-8 months after that, there were 50% capacity restrictions on restaurants (indoors and out), gyms, etc. Once vaccinations started in earnest, all restrictions were dropped (including on schools), and remain so to this day (about a year now). There were pockets of minor restrictions when there were bumps (i.e. Omicron), but they never lasted long.

For the past year, Masks have been "optional" (except airports and medical facilities), however in stores especially, I would estimate mask wearing around 40-50%... all voluntary. Other than masks, a visitor would hardly know there was a pandemic on. I've never once been asked anywhere for proof of vaccination.

The air border was *never* shut. For most of the past 2 years Canadians have been able to fly here with no restrictions at all (no vax card, no negative test, etc). Only in the past 3 months has the negative test requirement been added. I'm actually very concerned to fly back to Canada given the mixed bag of testing, quarantining rules, etc. I really don't want to pay for a trip and then get stuck in some hotel room for 10 days or something.

I know.. "US has 3 times the death rate as Canada".. isn't that worth the effort of restrictions?

Well, Vax reluctance is much higher here, and that certainly has an impact on who precisely was dying. Also there are large pockets of poverty where people have no access to health care, which is actually a separate, sad problem in itself.

Probably 1/2 the people I know (Canada and here) have had some form of Covid now, so being triple vaxed I'm really not worried at all.

Again, health system was never overwhelmed, which (say what you want about US Healthcare) is something that maybe Canada needs to look at. Not suggesting a US Style system (having compared the 2 firsthand, I'd for the most part prefer the Canada system), but maybe Canada could take some lessons in physician ratios and Hospital/ICU capacities.

Not trying to stir any pot, but I'm just trying to demonstrate that the endless (and confusing) restrictions and sets of rules may not be as helpful as envisioned. Talking to people in Canada, they are so fed up with the endless lockdowns and restrictions.... whereas here, life is pretty much normal for the past year. Having been in the unique position to compare 2 very different approaches to the pandemic, and I know which I prefer ..

I can understand many of your points, but there's a big difference between the U.S. private health care system where only the rich and those with good insurance can afford to go to the hospital. How many millions of Covid victims (who survived or have passed) were unable to access the health care U.S. system? In Canada, anyone has access to the system, so our hospitals that are already taxed in normal times, and in the case of some Quebec jurisdictions, are at the point of failure even without Covid, could not handle the influx.

[YOWetal]

Originally Posted by J.OT13

I can understand many of your points, but there's a big difference between the U.S. private health care system where only the rich and those with good insurance can afford to go to the hospital. How many millions of Covid victims (who survived or have passed) were unable to access the health care U.S. system? In Canada, anyone has access to the system, so our hospitals that are already taxed in normal times, and in the case of some Quebec jurisdictions, are at the point of failure even without Covid, could not handle the influx.

A lot of Canadians have this impression of US healthcare but it is far from true. The vast majority have insurance especially in this context as everyone over 65 does as well as the very poor. Regardless hospitals have to treat everyone.

[phil235]

Originally Posted by YOWetal

A lot of Canadians have this impression of US healthcare but it is far from true. The vast majority have insurance especially in this context as everyone over 65 does as well as the very poor. Regardless hospitals have to treat everyone.

It's not just an impression. According to this link, it was 31 million uninsured in 2020, or around 9% of the population: https://policyadvice.net/insurance/i...red-americans/.

When hospitals are running at almost full capacity, that makes a big difference. Also, most Americans' health insurance is tied to their jobs. When you have a big drop in employment, as occurred at that beginning of the pandemic, you also have a drop in the number of people insured. It is a very relevant point.

[YOWetal]

Originally Posted by phil235

It's not just an impression. According to this link, it was 31 million uninsured in 2020, or around 9% of the population: https://policyadvice.net/insurance/i...red-americans/.

When hospitals are running at almost full capacity, that makes a big difference. Also, most Americans' health insurance is tied to their jobs. When you have a big drop in employment, as occurred at that beginning of the pandemic, you also have a drop in the number of people insured. It is a very relevant point.

Well 91% is vast majority to me. Considering it skews much younger so a rounding area in terms of analyzing covid numbers. Yes it's an issue for working poor and young people who get sick and are bankrupt and not a good system but we shouldn't exaggerate.

[phil235]

Originally Posted by YOWetal

Well 91% is vast majority to me. Considering it skews much younger so a rounding area in terms of analyzing covid numbers. Yes it's an issue for working poor and young people who get sick and are bankrupt and not a good system but we shouldn't exaggerate.

Yes, it's a big majority, but that majority also counts underinsured people, who are usually estimated to number in the same order of magnitude, and don't have access to the full range of care. And I know that this is an oversimplification, but if you reduced the number of people going to Canadian hospitals by 9%, the capacity issues everyone is talking about would largely evaporate.

[HighwayStar]

Originally Posted by YOWetal

Well 91% is vast majority to me. Considering it skews much younger so a rounding area in terms of analyzing covid numbers. Yes it's an issue for working poor and young people who get sick and are bankrupt and not a good system but we shouldn't exaggerate.

In addition, remember that *everyone* over 65 in the US is on Medicare automatically. Medicare is full, government insurance coverage just like all Canadians have.

Look at Wikipedia "List of Countries by Hospital Beds": https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_o..._hospital_beds

US has 29.4 ICU beds per 100,000 people. Canada has 13.5. Also sort by Hospital beds per 100,000 people and Canada is near the bottom.

With all the Billions being borrowed and spent, I haven't heard a single mention of, "maybe we should take a look at beefing up our health care system".... perhaps we should.

[phil235]

Originally Posted by HighwayStar

In addition, remember that *everyone* over 65 in the US is on Medicare automatically. Medicare is full, government insurance coverage just like all Canadians have.

Look at Wikipedia "List of Countries by Hospital Beds": https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_o..._hospital_beds

US has 29.4 ICU beds per 100,000 people. Canada has 13.5. Also sort by Hospital beds per 100,000 people and Canada is near the bottom.

With all the Billions being borrowed and spent, I haven't heard a single mention of, "maybe we should take a look at beefing up our health care system".... perhaps we should.

I'd just point out that ICU beds are only one measure of a health care system. We are much closer to the U.S. in terms of acute care beds, where most Covid patients ended up (2.5 vs. 2 beds per thousand people), and we are actually ahead of the U.S. in physicians per capita, to cite two examples.

https://www.healthsystemtracker.org/...are-countries/

But fair point in terms of looking at where our system falls short. I have heard quite a bit of discussion of the Canadian approach of running hospitals at or near capacity. It is great for efficiency, and contributes to the fact that our system has far lower overall costs than the U.S. system with better results by lots of measures. But it is not great in a situation like a pandemic, where surge capacity becomes a key factor.

The pandemic definitely raises some questions in terms of whether we are investing enough or in the right spots.

[skylerottawa]

Originally Posted by HighwayStar

This may not be a popular post, but I would like to share the experience I've had living in Phoenix since shortly before Covid started (wife and I moved here for work in 2019). All the time I've been in constant contact with friends and family all over Canada.

Watching the Covid train-wreck unfold for the past 2 years, I can't begin to say how much happier we both are to be stuck here rather than in Canada.
Arizona is a "purple" state (50% Rep, 50% Dem by population), however there is a staunch Republican Gov at this time. (note - I am about as far from a Republican as one can get).

The first 2 months of Covid were a zombie apocalypse like everywhere else. Then shortly after that, the metric was simply, "If the Health Care system can keep up, then keep restrictions to a minimum". And for the record, the Health Care system was *never* overloaded here. A website was updated daily with metrics for all local hospitals in terms of regular capacity, ICU capacity and Covid cases.

For probably 6-8 months after that, there were 50% capacity restrictions on restaurants (indoors and out), gyms, etc. Once vaccinations started in earnest, all restrictions were dropped (including on schools), and remain so to this day (about a year now). There were pockets of minor restrictions when there were bumps (i.e. Omicron), but they never lasted long.

For the past year, Masks have been "optional" (except airports and medical facilities), however in stores especially, I would estimate mask wearing around 40-50%... all voluntary. Other than masks, a visitor would hardly know there was a pandemic on. I've never once been asked anywhere for proof of vaccination.

The air border was *never* shut. For most of the past 2 years Canadians have been able to fly here with no restrictions at all (no vax card, no negative test, etc). Only in the past 3 months has the negative test requirement been added. I'm actually very concerned to fly back to Canada given the mixed bag of testing, quarantining rules, etc. I really don't want to pay for a trip and then get stuck in some hotel room for 10 days or something.

I know.. "US has 3 times the death rate as Canada".. isn't that worth the effort of restrictions?

Well, Vax reluctance is much higher here, and that certainly has an impact on who precisely was dying. Also there are large pockets of poverty where people have no access to health care, which is actually a separate, sad problem in itself.

Probably 1/2 the people I know (Canada and here) have had some form of Covid now, so being triple vaxed I'm really not worried at all.

Again, health system was never overwhelmed, which (say what you want about US Healthcare) is something that maybe Canada needs to look at. Not suggesting a US Style system (having compared the 2 firsthand, I'd for the most part prefer the Canada system), but maybe Canada could take some lessons in physician ratios and Hospital/ICU capacities.

Not trying to stir any pot, but I'm just trying to demonstrate that the endless (and confusing) restrictions and sets of rules may not be as helpful as envisioned. Talking to people in Canada, they are so fed up with the endless lockdowns and restrictions.... whereas here, life is pretty much normal for the past year. Having been in the unique position to compare 2 very different approaches to the pandemic, and I know which I prefer ..

Very interesting perspective, thank you for sharing! I completely agree that at this point the endless lockdowns and restrictions are doing more harm than good. Hearing from friends living in other countries confirms that Canada is an extreme outlier, two years into this pandemic. I am fine with mask and vaccine mandates but I disagree with the shuttering of businesses of any kind at this point. Really hoping Ontario doesn't repeal these restrictions just for us to go into another lockdown a few months down the road.

[J.OT13]

Originally Posted by skylerottawa

Very interesting perspective, thank you for sharing! I completely agree that at this point the endless lockdowns and restrictions are doing more harm than good. Hearing from friends living in other countries confirms that Canada is an extreme outlier, two years into this pandemic. I am fine with mask and vaccine mandates but I disagree with the shuttering of businesses of any kind at this point. Really hoping Ontario doesn't repeal these restrictions just for us to go into another lockdown a few months down the road.

[VANRIDERFAN]

Originally Posted by phil235

But fair point in terms of looking at where our system falls short. I have heard quite a bit of discussion of the Canadian approach of running hospitals at or near capacity. It is great for efficiency, and contributes to the fact that our system has far lower overall costs than the U.S. system with better results by lots of measures. But it is not great in a situation like a pandemic, where surge capacity becomes a key factor.

The pandemic definitely raises some questions in terms of whether we are investing enough or in the right spots.

Like the supply chain issues with "Just in time delivery" and "Alternate Service Delivery" which are concepts that work great when everything is peaceable but is not agile enough to respond to "events".

[lrt's friend]

Originally Posted by phil235

I'd just point out that ICU beds are only one measure of a health care system. We are much closer to the U.S. in terms of acute care beds, where most Covid patients ended up (2.5 vs. 2 beds per thousand people), and we are actually ahead of the U.S. in physicians per capita, to cite two examples.

https://www.healthsystemtracker.org/...are-countries/

But fair point in terms of looking at where our system falls short. I have heard quite a bit of discussion of the Canadian approach of running hospitals at or near capacity. It is great for efficiency, and contributes to the fact that our system has far lower overall costs than the U.S. system with better results by lots of measures. But it is not great in a situation like a pandemic, where surge capacity becomes a key factor.

The pandemic definitely raises some questions in terms of whether we are investing enough or in the right spots.

While there are many comparisons with more freedom in the US, our health care system and public health measures have performed much better than the USA as has our economic measures. The USA has not recovered economically as quickly.

I do agree that the way we operate our hospitals near capacity has driven the degree and length of lockdowns and in particular in Ontario these capacity issues can be traced back to Mike Harris' commonsense revolution when so many hospitals were closed.

We need to decide on how we operate our hospitals and our long-term care homes in the future and those are going to be political decisions. As voters, we will need to decide if tax increases to improve hospital capacities and improve long-term care are palatable.

[phil235]

Originally Posted by lrt's friend

We need to decide on how we operate our hospitals and our long-term care homes in the future and those are going to be political decisions. As voters, we will need to decide if tax increases to improve hospital capacities and improve long-term care are palatable.

This would definitely be a good time to make the case to the public for more investment. I'm just concerned about the back and forth on health care administration that occurs everytime a new party comes into power. Just think of the resources that went into setting up LHINs, which seemed to make good sense, only to see them dissolved a few years later. With a public system we avoid the suck on resources that private insurers contribute, but we seem to make up for it in administrative costs and constant re-organizations. I'd really like to see less political interference in those details.

[lrt's friend]

Originally Posted by phil235

This would definitely be a good time to make the case to the public for more investment. I'm just concerned about the back and forth on health care administration that occurs everytime a new party comes into power. Just think of the resources that went into setting up LHINs, which seemed to make good sense, only to see them dissolved a few years later. With a public system we avoid the suck on resources that private insurers contribute, but we seem to make up for it in administrative costs and constant re-organizations. I'd really like to see less political interference in those details.

You are of course right, but despite that the administrative inefficiencies are so much worse in the USA where everybody has their finger in the pot taking a profit margin at public expense.

Nevertheless, I hate how our political parties use health care administration as a political football.

[YOWetal]

Originally Posted by lrt's friend

You are of course right, but despite that the administrative inefficiencies are so much worse in the USA where everybody has their finger in the pot taking a profit margin at public expense.

Nevertheless, I hate how our political parties use health care administration as a political football.

Yeah it's a silly game really. There are some reforms that can save money but ultimately you have to cut salaries, ration care with some kind of user fee or dramatically increase taxes if you want to increase healthcare capacity. Probably all three.

[HighwayStar]

Originally Posted by YOWetal

Yeah it's a silly game really. There are some reforms that can save money but ultimately you have to cut salaries, ration care with some kind of user fee or dramatically increase taxes if you want to increase healthcare capacity. Probably all three.

Or the unmentionable fourth option... some form of private sector involvement.

Actually user-fees would partially address this.

Germany, France, UK all have some sort of variable private sector participation... but Canada's great fear is they could lead down the slippery slope of the US system. There actually are a couple of real nice components to this US system (direct access to specialists is one), but as I mentioned previously, given the choice, I'd pick Canada's over the US.

When you think of it, Canada actually already has a 2 tier system, it's just who has access to it. Why don't NHL players have to wait for an MRI for example??