AUSTIN | ABIA Updates

[GoldenBoot]

Originally Posted by khowaga

What I find weird is that the inbound and outbound are 6 days apart... I wonder where they’re going to send it after it comes here? And where the aircraft operating the flight to Sweden will come from?

It makes since to me...it's bringing people in for the tech/movie conference and then for the music (the beginning of those are 6 days apart).

The route for both are CPH-AUS-ARN. So, both inbound flights will be arriving from Copenhagen and the aircraft will turn here and head to Stockholm (supposedly with a few passengers on the return). There will be no inbound from Sweden this year. It's Denmark.

[GoldenBoot]

Originally Posted by ATCZERO

Some fresh news for everyone. I have it on good authority that Delta is planning on increasing their flights by 50% once the expansion is done. In addition, they are looking to start BOTH Paris and Amsterdam on Delta metal.

In addition, we should also expect another major airline to enter the Austin market soonish. I have no idea who that could be. Let's hear everyone's best guess!

Thank you!!! Thank you very much for continuing to provide insight into what may be coming to ABIA. You are now our only "inside" source.

[ATCZERO]

Originally Posted by GoldenBoot

Thank you!!! Thank you very much for continuing to provide insight into what may be coming to ABIA. You are now our only "inside" source.

That's a dubious title. I might hear stuff before everyone else but not as early as Austin1971. Maybe he'll come back once all the news breaks and we enter the dry spell before the next terminal expansion.

[khowaga]

Originally Posted by GoldenBoot

It makes since to me...it's bringing people in for the tech/movie conference and then for the music (the beginning of those are 6 days apart).

The route for both are CPH-AUS-ARN. So, both inbound flights will be arriving from Copenhagen and the aircraft will turn here and head to Stockholm (supposedly with a few passengers on the return). There will be no inbound from Sweden this year. It's Denmark.

The news item posted says that only CPH-AUS is operated on March 6 (no outbound flight). And only AUS-ARN on March 12 (no inbound). It makes it look as if the inbound and outbound are being operated 6 days apart.

SK6951 CPH1145 – 1525AUS 333 06MAR19
SK6952 AUS2015 – 1235+1ARN 333 12MAR19

That’s what was confusing me — obviously the aircraft is not going to sit here for 6 days. It makes much more sense if it’s doing the full routing both times.

I think it’s just badly worded on that site.

[AvgeekDL]

I’m not sure I entirely buy the Delta info. 50% increase in flights? Seems legit. But why would DL do both CDG and AMS if they are only doing a focus city? They already have to compete with both BA and LH. The only reason I can think of why they would launch both is the limited connectivity from AUS to CDG/AMS via DFW and IAH.

The new airline entering has to be Spirit. AUS makes all the sense in the world as a new add for them, surprised they aren’t here already.

[ATCZERO]

Originally Posted by AvgeekDL

I’m not sure I entirely buy the Delta info. 50% increase in flights? Seems legit. But why would DL do both CDG and AMS if they are only doing a focus city? They already have to compete with both BA and LH. The only reason I can think of why they would launch both is the limited connectivity from AUS to CDG/AMS via DFW and IAH.

The new airline entering has to be Spirit. AUS makes all the sense in the world as a new add for them, surprised they aren’t here already.

I'll admit, when I was told both AMS and CDG I thought it might be a bit much. Again, these are still rumors even though I have confidence in the source. Maybe those flights would be just a few times a week each? Anyway, if I hear anything else I'll be sure to post.

[khowaga]

Originally Posted by ATCZERO

I'll admit, when I was told both AMS and CDG I thought it might be a bit much. Again, these are still rumors even though I have confidence in the source. Maybe those flights would be just a few times a week each? Anyway, if I hear anything else I'll be sure to post.

It could be something like 3x AMS / 4x CDG, so that combined there’s a daily flight. But four mainline transatlantic flights seems like too much / too fast (unless it’s like DFW-Iceland, where the main goal is to knock someone out of the competition).

[masonh2479]

Originally Posted by khowaga

It could be something like 3x AMS / 4x CDG, so that combined there’s a daily flight. But four mainline transatlantic flights seems like too much / too fast (unless it’s like DFW-Iceland, where the main goal is to knock someone out of the competition).

Yeah, if Delta adds two TATLs, I have a feeling someone will pull out because of it. I hope not but there will be a strong possiblility, all eyes will be on the monthly lfs. I think it would be smarter for Delta to open 1 TATL to AMS and 1 TPAC to Seoul–Incheon. I do think AUS might be able to handle 1 more TATL without a carrier leaving and Delta would have a monopoly on the TPAC market. I know Tokyo is our highest demand TPAC city but their airports are slot controlled.

Good news, the new parking garage has topped out! https://twitter.com/AustinAdvantage/...880335360?s=20

[AvgeekDL]

Originally Posted by khowaga

It could be something like 3x AMS / 4x CDG, so that combined there’s a daily flight. But four mainline transatlantic flights seems like too much / too fast (unless it’s like DFW-Iceland, where the main goal is to knock someone out of the competition).

I believe that is what DL did in LAX last year, 4x week AMS and 3x week CDG, though both are going daily next year. If DL wanted both AMS and CDG, that would make the most sense. Though I do believe AUS is big enough for daily flights to all the major alliance hubs in Europe (LHR, CDG/AMS, FRA).

BTW, how many flights would be added if DL added 50% more flights?

[ATCZERO]

Originally Posted by AvgeekDL

I believe that is what DL did in LAX last year, 4x week AMS and 3x week CDG, though both are going daily next year. If DL wanted both AMS and CDG, that would make the most sense. Though I do believe AUS is big enough for daily flights to all the major alliance hubs in Europe (LHR, CDG/AMS, FRA).

BTW, how many flights would be added if DL added 50% more flights?

I think there are a few people on here that would be able to figure it out. I'm not one of them though

[masonh2479]

The British Airways 747 departed for the last time this year, tomorrow brings the 77W.
https://flightaware.com/live/flight/BAW190

[DoubleC]

I wonder how much of that expansion is to existing markets (DL hubs) and how many would be new markets. 50% of what they already have is a pretty good bump, maybe increase a few frequencies to cities like JFK and BOS, plus some O&D markets if this is true.

The biggest obstacle Delta has to face is the fact that AUS already has a lot of service from the other Big 2, Southwest, and Frontier (even if the latter only has so many flights each week, they've become pretty huge with all the routings). Not to mention many routes already have a lot of competition from here, like DEN, LAX, SEA, NYC, LAS, SFO. Not a lot of monopolies on hot routes. It's unlike RDU which didn't have all three carriers have giant presences like they do here. I know PDX and MCO are always touted as likely cities that DL could serve from here, but they already have quite a few carriers going through each. Eventually someone will drop.

I could however, see Delta chipping at JetBlue since it they're probably the weakest carrier (I'm going to guess AUS-FLL and AUS-MCO). Maybe Bay Area, if these sources are true!



Also I'm looking at the configurations of BA's 777... I could've sworn one of them was 3-4-3, but apparently not?

[masonh2479]

Originally Posted by DoubleC

I wonder how much of that expansion is to existing markets (DL hubs) and how many would be new markets. 50% of what they already have is a pretty good bump, maybe increase a few frequencies to cities like JFK and BOS, plus some O&D markets if this is true.

The biggest obstacle Delta has to face is the fact that AUS already has a lot of service from the other Big 2, Southwest, and Frontier (even if the latter only has so many flights each week, they've become pretty huge with all the routings). Not to mention many routes already have a lot of competition from here, like DEN, LAX, SEA, NYC, LAS, SFO. Not a lot of monopolies on hot routes. It's unlike RDU which didn't have all three carriers have giant presences like they do here. I know PDX and MCO are always touted as likely cities that DL could serve from here, but they already have quite a few carriers going through each. Eventually someone will drop.

I could however, see Delta chipping at JetBlue since it they're probably the weakest carrier (I'm going to guess AUS-FLL and AUS-MCO). Maybe Bay Area, if these sources are true!



Also I'm looking at the configurations of BA's 777... I could've sworn one of them was 3-4-3, but apparently not?

I agree, I have also thought Delta would go after JetBlue, then adding PDX and MCO as well. It would be nice to see them try and get a slot exception to LGA and DCA like WN did in the past to DCA.

Just checked seat guru and BA has their 777s in a 3-3-3-, the BA 77W seat map is shown here: https://www.seatguru.com/airlines/Br...ng_777_300.php

[Jdawgboy]

I think AUS can handle all those flights to Europe. Remember it's not just Austin itself, ABIA serves around 5 million people in the region going as far north as Waco (in some cases), at least half the SA metro if not more, multiple counties east for those that don't want to deal with Houston traffic and counties west of Austin, though lower population numbers out that way. Add to the likelihood that these flights may also serve transfering passengers, especially if Austin becomes a focus city.

[masonh2479]

Originally Posted by Jdawgboy

I think AUS can handle all those flights to Europe. Remember it's not just Austin itself, ABIA serves around 5 million people in the region going as far north as Waco (in some cases), at least half the SA metro if not more, multiple counties east for those that don't want to deal with Houston traffic and counties west of Austin, though lower population numbers out that way. Add to the likelihood that these flights may also serve transfering passengers, especially if Austin becomes a focus city.

Not saying your wrong but this is a I will believe it when I see it situation. I certainly hope your right because it would really suck to see a long haul route ended...

[DoubleC]

It's loading as a 77L (typical flightaware listing the wrong types).

So it looks like the 744 V1 was what we had, comparing it with the 77W

BA 747V1 vs 77W
F: 14 - 14
J: 52 - 56
Y+: 36 - 44
Y: 243 - 185

345 - 299 seats total. For anyone unfamiliar, J means business class (BA calls it Club World) and Y+ and Y being economy plus and economy, respectively (BA calls it World Traveler). F is first class of course.

So the biggest drop is in economy seats. Look at all the business seats in V3!

https://www.seatguru.com/airlines/Br..._747-400_C.php

Geez if recliner seats means reclining, do standard seats not recline? Not that I use it all that much but still.

[AUS]

Originally Posted by masonh2479

Not saying your wrong but this is a I will believe it when I see it situation. I certainly hope your right because it would really suck to see a long haul route ended...

We are already seeing this with British Airways and Norwegian. A lot of passengers choose to arrive in Austin for the ease factor and it's also a good departing alternative for many people comparing it to IAH and DFW if people are willing to pay the higher price.

For British Airways, the 3-4-3 config is only on a few LGW based 772s so they won't be coming to Austin.

Now here's a theory for y'all.

ViaAir is operating to a lot of regional cities from AUS, so what if they create a partnership with Delta, helping funnel in connecting passengers for flights out of Austin. The two would essentially feed pax to each others planes. The way it is now, ViaAir is not flying a ton of pax so a partnership could be a big win for them.

[masonh2479]

Originally Posted by DoubleC

It's loading as a 77L (typical flightaware listing the wrong types).

So it looks like the 744 V1 was what we had, comparing it with the 77W

BA 747V1 vs 77W
F: 14 - 14
J: 52 - 56
Y+: 36 - 44
Y: 243 - 185

345 - 299 seats total. For anyone unfamiliar, J means business class (BA calls it Club World) and Y+ and Y being economy plus and economy, respectively (BA calls it World Traveler). F is first class of course.

So the biggest drop is in economy seats. Look at all the business seats in V3!

https://www.seatguru.com/airlines/Br..._747-400_C.php

Geez if recliner seats means reclining, do standard seats not recline? Not that I use it all that much but still.

Not that big of a loss to be honest, still really good for a market that saw a 788 a few years ago! I'm sure that all the seats recline but probably not as much as the recliner seats

[masonh2479]

Originally Posted by AUS

We are already seeing this with British Airways and Norwegian. A lot of passengers choose to arrive in Austin for the ease factor and it's also a good departing alternative for many people comparing it to IAH and DFW if people are willing to pay the higher price.

For British Airways, the 3-4-3 config is only on a few LGW based 772s so they won't be coming to Austin.

Now here's a theory for y'all.

ViaAir is operating to a lot of regional cities from AUS, so what if they create a partnership with Delta, helping funnel in connecting passengers for flights out of Austin. The two would essentially feed pax to each others planes. The way it is now, ViaAir is not flying a ton of pax so a partnership could be a big win for them.

I don't know if Delta would want to partner with an airline that has a bad reputation for delays, cancellations, and not treating their customers now. Thankfully we won't be getting the 3-4-3 777s, that would be extremely tight.

[GoldenBoot]

So, if my math is correct, and if DL does increase daily ops by 50%, then we're talking about 12-13 additional flights a day. That's moving in the right direction. But, I would not think DL would consider AUS a "focus city" with ~40 departures a day? Should this increase come to fruition, AUS will serve about half the number of flights as the smallest DL focus city.

As a comparison with other DL focus cities: I believe RDU has ~80 DL flights a day to about 27 destinations; BOS has 118 departures to 50 destinations; CVG has ~82 departures to ~36 destinations.

BOS is a borderline small hub. DL's new hub at SEA has 127 departures to 49 destinations.