Halifax Population Projections

[someone123]

Originally Posted by atbw

Just wondering what a middle-class salary is. I agree with everything else, but right now the peninsula seems solidly $300K + except for condos. On 2 middle class salaries, more likely.

An income near the middle of the distribution. The median household income in Halifax was $69,522 in 2015. Here in Vancouver it was $72,662 (source).

The median house price was about $331,000 in April 2020 in Halifax and it was $870,000 in Toronto and $1,036,000 in Vancouver (source).

Mortgage rates are very low now. A $330,000 mortgage works out to around $1,5000 a month in payments. This is affordable for a typical household in Halifax which these days has an income of around $75,000. It is true that some people unfortunately can't afford a $300,000 place but the situation is much worse in many Canadian cities, and I believe Halifax has more options near the bottom of the scale that some of those other places too.

[goodgrowth]

I'm not that familiar with the Halifax metro area but looking on a map it has a unique layout.

For keeping housing costs and transit times reasonable it's probably not a good idea to prioritise concentrating development and population on the peninsula. You'd probably want co-develop Dartmouth to the same extent.

[someone123]

Canada's monthly labour force characteristics stats have estimates of population:
https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/t1/tbl1...701%2C20200701

These numbers are for working-age people, but they show the population going up by 2.5% from July 2019-July 2020, and 0.2% just from this past June to July. No big slowdown evident in the statistics so far.

Employment is down 7.7% from a year earlier, which probably underestimates the covid impact a bit by including some growth months from last August up to March or so. This is about middle of the pack for Canadian cities. Presumably many of these people received CERB. None of this is good but it does not look catastrophic.

[Drybrain]

Originally Posted by MolteN

I feel this better displays central Canada ignorance towards our local problems and challenges, all they hear about is us having cool accents and being nice with cheap housing for summer getaways. They view us as their backwater colony playground rather than a region that needs to be better integrated with Quebec and Ontario.

No, they lived here for several years, had jobs and social networks, and had planned to move here permanently. This was their home. But they moved here in part for financial reasons, which ended up no longer making sense. So they moved elsewhere. We have a highly mobile society, and that's the reality.

[someone123]

Originally Posted by Drybrain

No, they lived here for several years, had jobs and social networks, and had planned to move here permanently. This was their home. But they moved here in part for financial reasons, which ended up no longer making sense. So they moved elsewhere. We have a highly mobile society, and that's the reality.

As people and jobs become more mobile there will be a new equilibrium. I don't think Halifax will end up being a bargain city compared to Edmonton or Winnipeg or Ottawa. I think it will be considered more attractive than average because of its coastal location, much like Vancouver or Victoria. And maybe for its history and character too if those aren't wrecked too much. Halifax as a "discount" city was an artifact of the hangover from the 1990's.

Areas like the South End, Northwest Arm, and some of downtown are definitely starting to be priced as prime national level neighbourhoods and have buyers that show up from all over. I could see this surprising some people who are used to what the city was like 10 or 20 years ago. And I think this is just beginning, and that the North End is going to be a premiere urban district in Canada.

One open question is how much cheap suburban land will continue to be quickly developed into housing along the lines of what you find in Sackville or Cole Harbour. That will have an impact on affordability for a lot of people. My impression is that it hasn't kept up with population growth, and that the share of construction has gradually shifted upmarket over time. We saw this years ago with regional council trying to ban trailer parks and cut down on unserviced rural subdivisions. People like to make fun of trailer parks but they were a way for people even on minimum wage to own property.

[MolteN]

Originally Posted by someone123

One open question is how much cheap suburban land will continue to be quickly developed into housing along the lines of what you find in Sackville or Cole Harbour. That will have an impact on affordability for a lot of people. My impression is that it hasn't kept up with population growth, and that the share of construction has gradually shifted upmarket over time. We saw this years ago with regional council trying to ban trailer parks and cut down on unserviced rural subdivisions. People like to make fun of trailer parks but they were a way for people even on minimum wage to own property.

I feel like mobile and mini homes can play a key role in affordable housing in Canada as a whole. If a model was setup to where people could buy parcels of land to put their home on, as in they actually own it, and are not just paying for the right of their home to occupy that spot, it can act as an incentive for first time home buyers to take pride in their property and take care of it, simple rules like concrete foundations and paved driveways with open decks can really add character to a 'trailer park'. these can be built quickly and affordably in existing suburbs to help with demand, much like the secondary and backyard suite zoning bylaw the city is about to pass for inner city neighborhoods.

[Keith P.]

Originally Posted by MolteN

these can be built quickly and affordably in existing suburbs to help with demand, much like the secondary and backyard suite zoning bylaw the city is about to pass for inner city neighborhoods.

That is a very dangerous thing HRM Planning is trying to impose upon us and I fervently hope it does not pass without some very stringent restrictions. I can only imagine the number of cheap jerry-built structures c/w vinyl siding and bottom-end finishes going into backyards and being rented out. It could really change the character of neighborhoods for the worse.

A big part of the problem with what you mention regarding manufactured homes is that in more rural areas planning regulations often prohibit anything under a 2-acre lot for residential housing, and then you get a double whammy regarding building codes requiring foundations, energy efficiency levels, etc.. Unless you are developing a large subdivision and get approval for a number of units on smaller lots, the average person looking to do what you are talking about is often out of luck thanks to those rules.

[Colin May]

In 2011 more people lived in what was the city of Dartmouth than lived in peninsula Halifax.

[alps]

Originally Posted by Colin May

In 2011 more people lived in what was the city of Dartmouth than lived in peninsula Halifax.

But the area is quite a bit larger I think? (i.e. Dartmouth included Westphal, Woodlawn, and other suburbs)

I often wonder when the population of the Halifax peninsula will again hit its 1940/50s peak.

[MolteN]

As of July 1st 2020, according to the government of Canada, Halifax saw high growth despite the pandemic, we're 448,544 for the mentioned date, a slight decrease to 9015 new dwellers but still solid.

https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/pub/...020003-eng.htm

Assuming the rate of growth Halifax should have 457,559 for 7/1/2021

[someone123]

East Hants is being added to the CMA for 2021 as well and has just over 23,000 people. So 480,000 is a reasonable 2021 estimate.

[MolteN]

Originally Posted by someone123

East Hants is being added to the CMA for 2021 as well and has just over 23,000 people. So 480,000 is a reasonable 2021 estimate.

Halifax is about to explode with a population of half a million, much better than an ammunition ship if you ask me