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  #221  
Old Posted Apr 16, 2016, 9:18 PM
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Originally Posted by wwmiv View Post
This is ridiculous simplification of reality. Anyone who knows the story of the Alamodome knows that governmental bodies are instrumental and participate directly in the negotiations.
I would agree with Goldenboot on this. It is the team owner(s) who work with local and state governments in securing new stadiums. The NFL or any other major league is not typically going to work with a city unless there is a franchise in place. And if a franchise exists it is the owner of the franchise that works out stadium deals with local governments.
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  #222  
Old Posted Apr 16, 2016, 10:33 PM
Tech House Tech House is offline
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Originally Posted by GoldenBoot View Post
Can you elaborate, please? I find that this opinion could be flawed and I am interested in why you feel this way.
This was asked re: my assumption that SA is likely to be more sports-ready than Austin is. An important caveat here is that I don't care much about this issue, so I don't study it. My impression is that sports tend to be more important to people who have routine lives and don't already have a lot of other activities and interests on their plate. Sports certainly weren't important to most of the grad students I knew when I was at UT, and Austin is a highly-educated city. Sure, in terms of being able to pay for ticket it's helpful to be able to afford them, but nearly everyone I've ever known who places a high importance on sports is a blue-collar or routine white-collar worker, and who have strong social ties to an in-group of compatible people. This in-group often consists of neighbors, something I've seen a lot of in Austin where there are big watch-parties for Longhorn or Cowboy games and most of the people attending are neighbors and co-workers.

So, my "reasoning" (an overly-charitable word for my off-the-cuff remarks) is that San Antonio has a higher population of people who have steady blue-collar or routine white-collar employment, with relatively stable lives, who value community, neighbors, and co-workers over novelty, continuing education, career development, and the arts. Obviously there are more similarities than differences between Austin and SA in this regard, so I'm only saying that there's a difference at the margins, that Austin has a higher percentage of people with interests that take priority over sports.

What I meant by Austin having a more transient population is simply that the average time people have lived in Austin is probably lower than for SA. This is only a guess, but seems like a reasonable one. When people are in career-building or youthful exploration modalities, they're probably less likely to latch on to identification with a city's sports teams.


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Originally Posted by GoldenBoot View Post
Tech employees do not fit a professional sports franchise demographic? I disagree as, for one thing, they have plenty of disposable income (one of the prime factors when reviewing a region). Simply look at Silicon Valley and the entire San Francisco Bay Area (home of the U.S. technology industry). The 49ers just built a stadium in Santa Clara (dead center of Silicon Valley). There are the SF Giants, Golden State Warriors, Oakland A's, Oakland Raiders (for now), San Jose Sharks, San Jose Earthquakes...all are doing pretty well, I believe, with a huge amount of techies as season ticket holders.
Right, San Francisco is an interesting case. I think a lot of the success of sports franchises there has come from a long history of how those teams were developed. It points to the fact that it's not just the demographics of a region that determines the success of sports, it's the way those teams are managed and marketed. SF's regional teams have tended to be very good at building relationships with the area's culture, whereas we can see just the opposite in Los Angeles.

Maybe one of the reasons why F1 hasn't been as successful as hoped in Austin is that it still has the flavor of being an outsider, in spite of F1 Fest and other efforts at outreach. I personally feel sort of alienated by F1, and even though I'm a fan of it being a success, I feel absolutely no personal connection or interest in it. I know one person who is a car fanatic and he's sort of engaged, but I don't know anyone else who gives a flip about it. It's a tough sell --- how do you make an international elitist event more relatable to Austin? Probably not gonna happen. As trendy as our city is for Texas, it's not exactly Monte Carlo or Dubai. I wish them well but I'll be surprised if they stay here. F1 will never have that "down home" vibe that Texans relate to.

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Originally Posted by GoldenBoot View Post
Another thing to consider is that a large portion of Austin's growth are people from regions where there were major sports franchises...so, there is a better than average chance that they would support a major franchise in Austin (depending on what it is...).
Hmm, i would think almost the opposite --- people often retain loyalty to the teams they leave behind. Do we have any data on this? It's an interesting question.

My general impression of people moving to Austin is that they're coming here for economic opportunity, culture, and climate, whereas sports would be the last thing on their minds. I have absolutely no data to back up anything I'm saying, though.
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  #223  
Old Posted Apr 16, 2016, 11:04 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Tech House View Post
This was asked re: my assumption that SA is likely to be more sports-ready than Austin is. An important caveat here is that I don't care much about this issue, so I don't study it. My impression is that sports tend to be more important to people who have routine lives and don't already have a lot of other activities and interests on their plate. Sports certainly weren't important to most of the grad students I knew when I was at UT, and Austin is a highly-educated city. Sure, in terms of being able to pay for ticket it's helpful to be able to afford them, but nearly everyone I've ever known who places a high importance on sports is a blue-collar or routine white-collar worker, and who have strong social ties to an in-group of compatible people. This in-group often consists of neighbors, something I've seen a lot of in Austin where there are big watch-parties for Longhorn or Cowboy games and most of the people attending are neighbors and co-workers.
\
Your reasoning is just wrong here, period. Your personal experience with your group of friends does not represent the majority. Higher education and higher discretionary income is directly correlated to higher attendance and merchandise sales. Every league has done multiple studies on this. Corporate ticket sales and box seats are where the money is.

Also, 31% of NHL fans make over $100k, which is higher than the avg. population. MLB is 22%, which is also higher than average...not sure on the NFL. So your assumption above is off base. I'm in consulting and I meet with extremely successful CEOs, CFOs, attorneys, etc. across the country...sports are almost always discussed.

Last edited by futures; Apr 17, 2016 at 2:55 AM.
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  #224  
Old Posted Apr 17, 2016, 3:11 AM
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Originally Posted by futures View Post
Your reasoning is just wrong here, period.
Not too surprising that I'd be wrong, although I'm surprised by the info you've provided as contrary evidence. I was thinking more in terms of emotional attachment to sports teams rather than money, though,. Obviously more income = more discretionary spending on luxuries such as box seats.

I think it was Fidel Castro who said, "If you can't feed the people, give them a parade." That's the way I was thinking about it. I should have known better than to generalize from my skewed sample of the population. I know exactly one high-earner who's a sports enthusiast, but I know hundreds of others who don't give a flip about sports. Of course, it would be just as foolish to do political polling by asking one's friends. My bad.
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  #225  
Old Posted Apr 17, 2016, 5:05 AM
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Most of the guys I used to tailgate with at Texas football games are higher earners (lawyers, investors, etc). They are all sports crazy. Not just football, but baseball, basketball and soccer.
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  #226  
Old Posted Apr 17, 2016, 2:22 PM
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Originally Posted by Tech House View Post
Not too surprising that I'd be wrong, although I'm surprised by the info you've provided as contrary evidence. I was thinking more in terms of emotional attachment to sports teams rather than money, though,. Obviously more income = more discretionary spending on luxuries such as box seats.

I think it was Fidel Castro who said, "If you can't feed the people, give them a parade." That's the way I was thinking about it. I should have known better than to generalize from my skewed sample of the population. I know exactly one high-earner who's a sports enthusiast, but I know hundreds of others who don't give a flip about sports. Of course, it would be just as foolish to do political polling by asking one's friends. My bad.
Hey man, whether or not you are ultimately right or wrong, you formed a rational opinion based on what data is in front of you and that's perfectly fine. This is just a friendly forum, so don't be so hard on yourself! Your comment/opinion was perfectly acceptable.
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  #227  
Old Posted Apr 17, 2016, 3:23 PM
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Originally Posted by Tech House View Post
Not too surprising that I'd be wrong, although I'm surprised by the info you've provided as contrary evidence. I was thinking more in terms of emotional attachment to sports teams rather than money, though,. Obviously more income = more discretionary spending on luxuries such as box seats.

I think it was Fidel Castro who said, "If you can't feed the people, give them a parade." That's the way I was thinking about it. I should have known better than to generalize from my skewed sample of the population. I know exactly one high-earner who's a sports enthusiast, but I know hundreds of others who don't give a flip about sports. Of course, it would be just as foolish to do political polling by asking one's friends. My bad.
No worries, and I actually understand your logic. Even though it doesn't hold up with ticket sales and merchandise, I'd be curious to see if it somehow correlates with tv veiwership. I haven't seen any data on that.

Regardless, I think a pro team in Austin would be a huge positive for the city and it will be interesting to watch over the next decade.
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  #228  
Old Posted Apr 17, 2016, 11:50 PM
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One thing I think is evident is that while we would have no problem sustaining a pro team, as a city, that will never be what defines us which I think is a big factor in why we still don't have one. For some cities, their pro teams litterally define who they are. Not all cities of course, but some. We have so much going for us that as others have mentioned, most people don't care that we have a pro sports team.
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  #229  
Old Posted Jun 15, 2016, 7:57 PM
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Originally Posted by Novacek View Post
Austin is in fact the _largest_ metro with no pro sports teams, if you include Riverside in the LA CSA (other than Las Vegas, which is a special case).
I just read that Vegas is getting an NHL expansion team. So drop the qualifiers, Austin is now the largest city in the country with no pro teams.
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  #230  
Old Posted Jun 15, 2016, 11:01 PM
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Originally Posted by Novacek View Post
I just read that Vegas is getting an NHL expansion team. So drop the qualifiers, Austin is now the largest city in the country with no pro teams.
City population isn't really indicative of anything. You have to compare metro plexes. Different cities have different philosophies when it comes to annexation and suburbs. Austin is the 36th biggest metro and it includes Austin, Round Rock
Cedar Park, San Marcos, Georgetown, Pflugerville, Buda, Kyle andLeander

Columbus and Raleigh are both ahead of Austin but there are a number of cities with smaller metros that are much further from a metro with a team than Austin is to San Antonio.
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  #231  
Old Posted Jun 16, 2016, 1:54 PM
Novacek Novacek is offline
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Originally Posted by brando View Post
City population isn't really indicative of anything. You have to compare metro plexes. Different cities have different philosophies when it comes to annexation and suburbs. Austin is the 36th biggest metro and it includes Austin, Round Rock
Cedar Park, San Marcos, Georgetown, Pflugerville, Buda, Kyle andLeander

Columbus and Raleigh are both ahead of Austin but there are a number of cities with smaller metros that are much further from a metro with a team than Austin is to San Antonio.
Uh, I _was_ talking about metro size.

Austin is the 33rd largest metro.

Every metro larger than us (and some smaller) have at least one team (or more) in the big 4. .


Columbus has a team. The Blue Jackets in the NHL (and a MLS team).
Raleigh is the 44th largest metro. And they still have a NHL team (the Hurricanes).

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_o...tistical_Areas
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  #232  
Old Posted Jun 16, 2016, 2:15 PM
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Originally Posted by Novacek View Post
Uh, I _was_ talking about metro size.

Austin is the 33rd largest metro.

Every metro larger than us (and many smaller) have at least one team (or more) in the big 4. .


Columbus has a team. The Blue Jackets in the NHL (and a MLS team).
Raleigh is the 44th largest metro. And they still have a NHL team (the Hurricanes).

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_o...tistical_Areas
47 Salt Lake City Utah Jazz (NFL) + Real Salt Lake (MLS)
.
45 New Orleans Saints (NFL) Pelicans (NBA)
.
43 Raleigh Hurricanes (NHL)
.
42 Memphis Grizzlies (NBA)
41 OKC Thunder (NBA)
40 Jacksonville Jaguars (NFL)
39 Milwaukee Bucks (NBA) Brewers (MLB)
.
36 Nashville Predators (NHL) Titans (NFL)
35 San Jose Sharks (NHL) + Earthquakes (MLS)
34 Indianapolis Colts (NFL) Pacers(NBA)
33 Austin None
32 Columbus Blue Jackets (NHL) + Crew (MLS)
31 Cleveland Brows (NFL) Indians (MLB) Cavaliers (NBA)
30 Kansas City Chiefs (NFL) Royals (MLB) + Sporting Kansas City (MLS)
29 Las Vegas this new NHL team
28 Cincinnati Bengals (NFL) Reds (MLB)
27 Sacremento Kings (NBA)
.
.
.


And those are with the 2014 population numbers. We've possibly jumped Columbus by now, and may challenge Kansas City by the next census.


I'm making no claim as to whether Austin _should_ have a team. But we're very obviously a huge outlier.
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  #233  
Old Posted Jun 16, 2016, 2:28 PM
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Originally Posted by Novacek View Post
47 Salt Lake City Utah Jazz (NFL) + Real Salt Lake (MLS)
.
45 New Orleans Saints (NFL) Pelicans (NBA)
.
43 Raleigh Hurricanes (NHL)
.
42 Memphis Grizzlies (NBA)
41 OKC Thunder (NBA)
40 Jacksonville Jaguars (NFL)
39 Milwaukee Bucks (NBA) Brewers (MLB)
.
36 Nashville Predators (NHL) Titans (NFL)
35 San Jose Sharks (NHL) + Earthquakes (MLS)
34 Indianapolis Colts (NFL) Pacers(NBA)
33 Austin None
32 Columbus Blue Jackets (NHL) + Crew (MLS)
31 Cleveland Brows (NFL) Indians (MLB) Cavaliers (NBA)
30 Kansas City Chiefs (NFL) Royals (MLB) + Sporting Kansas City (MLS)
29 Las Vegas this new NHL team
28 Cincinnati Bengals (NFL) Reds (MLB)
27 Sacremento Kings (NBA)
.
.
.


And those are with the 2014 population numbers. We've possibly jumped Columbus by now, and may challenge Kansas City by the next census.


I'm making no claim as to whether Austin _should_ have a team. But we're very obviously a huge outlier.
Maybe the proof's in the pudding -- meaning that maybe in our case the absence of any sort of team (or ongoing public interest) proves a lack of market. Austin's not a new economic miracle; surely teams have tested the water up till now and for one reason or another found us not as good a fit as the surface might suggest . . .
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  #234  
Old Posted Jun 16, 2016, 3:12 PM
resansom resansom is offline
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Originally Posted by Novacek View Post
47 Salt Lake City Utah Jazz (NFL) + Real Salt Lake (MLS)
.
45 New Orleans Saints (NFL) Pelicans (NBA)
.
43 Raleigh Hurricanes (NHL)
.
42 Memphis Grizzlies (NBA)
41 OKC Thunder (NBA)
40 Jacksonville Jaguars (NFL)
39 Milwaukee Bucks (NBA) Brewers (MLB)
.
36 Nashville Predators (NHL) Titans (NFL)
35 San Jose Sharks (NHL) + Earthquakes (MLS)
34 Indianapolis Colts (NFL) Pacers(NBA)
33 Austin None
32 Columbus Blue Jackets (NHL) + Crew (MLS)
31 Cleveland Brows (NFL) Indians (MLB) Cavaliers (NBA)
30 Kansas City Chiefs (NFL) Royals (MLB) + Sporting Kansas City (MLS)
29 Las Vegas this new NHL team
28 Cincinnati Bengals (NFL) Reds (MLB)
27 Sacremento Kings (NBA)
.
.
.


And those are with the 2014 population numbers. We've possibly jumped Columbus by now, and may challenge Kansas City by the next census.


I'm making no claim as to whether Austin _should_ have a team. But we're very obviously a huge outlier.
I was born in Austin and grew up wanting and wishing for a professional sports team, of any kind. It struck me then, way back in the 60s, 70s, and 80s, that Austin's proximity to three large markets - San Antonio, Houston, and Dallas/Fort Worth - had more to do with the fact that it didn't get a team, than its population. Even though Austin's and its metropolitan area's population have skyrocketed, I think this may still be a major factor in why it has failed to attract a professional sports team. That might be changing as the recent success of big events like X Games, F1, and the WGC match play event at the Austin Country Club seems to indicate. Austin's "brand" may be enough to finally overcome that proximity problem.

Last edited by resansom; Jun 16, 2016 at 3:41 PM.
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  #235  
Old Posted Jun 16, 2016, 3:28 PM
Novacek Novacek is offline
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Originally Posted by We vs us View Post
Maybe the proof's in the pudding -- meaning that maybe in our case the absence of any sort of team (or ongoing public interest) proves a lack of market. Austin's not a new economic miracle; surely teams have tested the water up till now and for one reason or another found us not as good a fit as the surface might suggest . . .
Austin's growth rate has been consistently good, but it's not until now that we've really been this big.


I think a large part of it is being much smaller when the leagues were really expanding. Which basically isn't happening anymore except for potentially MLS (which is why you occasionally hear noise about them) which isn't even one of the big 4.

NFL last expanded in 2002, with the Texans. Before that, it was one team in 99 (the browns, which was a special case). Before that, 95 with Carolina (still larger than us) and Jacksonville (I believe at the time larger than us).

MLB last expanded in 98, Tampa Bay and Arizona. Both larger than Austin. Before that, it was 93, when Austin was _way_ smaller than now. Recently, MLB has actually looked at contraction more than expansion.

NBA last expanded in 2004, for one team (really a replacement team) for Charlotte (larger than Austin). Before that, 95 (which was just a Canadian expansion).


It's not like the 60s/70s anymore, when leagues were expanding 6 teams at a time. If they were, I'm sure we'd be in the discussions.
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  #236  
Old Posted Jun 16, 2016, 9:57 PM
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MLS continues to mention Austin, and I think we eventually get a soccer team. NBA is not happening, NFL would go San Antonio before Austin. NHL is not happening. So it's MLB or MLS. I think MLS happens.
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  #237  
Old Posted Jun 16, 2016, 10:55 PM
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I'm ok with not having any of the big 4 leagues in Austin. Even though they'd be my hometown's team, I wouldn't cheer for them. I'm a Spurs (NBA), Cowboys (NFL), Rangers (MLB) and Stars (NHL) fan. That ain't changing.
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  #238  
Old Posted Jun 17, 2016, 12:44 AM
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I believe how big the UT sports programs are and their large fan base has had an impact on Austin attracting major league sports teams than anything else. Note, Columbus was impacted in the same way by OSU. The only major league that might be interested in Austin would be hockey, which Austin doesn't have a large enough facility for. The rink in Cedar Park is sized for minor league hockey.
A major requirement needed to attract major league sports is having a major league facility to host the team. Austin doesn't have one. Therefore, MLS is Austin's best chance considering it doesn't need a very large pitch to host a team in. Most of the MLS pitches are owned privately. But I don't consider MLS amongst the big 4 major leagues, not yet anyways.
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  #239  
Old Posted Jun 18, 2016, 10:53 PM
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^ I agree with it not being part of the "big 4", but I could definitely see that changing soon. There are pretty decent followings of some of the teams, at least. Not numerically comparable, of course, but it's a growing fan culture and youth leagues are also growing - which will create future fans and generations of soccer players unlike what was around when I was a kid.
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  #240  
Old Posted Jun 27, 2016, 2:46 PM
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The San Antonio Raiders?

Economist: NFL team could succeed in Central Texas

The combined might of Austin and San Antonio is strong enough to support a professional football team, according to new research from a California economist.

“I think an NFL team with a stadium between San Antonio and Austin would be successful,” Roger Noll, economics professor emeritus at Stanford University, told the San Antonio Business Journal.

http://www.bizjournals.com/austin/ne...ral-texas.html
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