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  #10401  
Old Posted Today, 5:03 PM
goodgrowth goodgrowth is offline
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The streak is dead, NL has it's first new case since several weeks ago. Supposedly it's travel related.
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  #10402  
Old Posted Today, 5:08 PM
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Hopefully he self-isolated. If we don't make it to Alert Level 3 on June 8 I'm going to lose my sanity.
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  #10403  
Old Posted Today, 5:14 PM
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With the numbers out of Ontario and Quebec, it is unlikely we stay under 1000 new cases today
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  #10404  
Old Posted Today, 5:18 PM
goodgrowth goodgrowth is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by SignalHillHiker View Post
Hopefully he self-isolated. If we don't make it to Alert Level 3 on June 8 I'm going to lose my sanity.
If one new (travel-related) case in three weeks prevents us from relaxing restrictions...then we'll never manage to relax restrictions.

So I don't think it will impact going to level 3.
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  #10405  
Old Posted Today, 5:21 PM
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MonctonRad MonctonRad is online now
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Quote:
Originally Posted by SignalHillHiker View Post
Hopefully he self-isolated. If we don't make it to Alert Level 3 on June 8 I'm going to lose my sanity.
Hopefully so.

The delinquent "health care professional" in Campbellton NB is unfortunately a physician, who did not follow the rules.

Quote:
Public Health will be sharing more information about the recent cluster of COVID-19 cases that have been confirmed in the Campbellton region over the last week.

A medical professional in the Campbellton region who contracted COVID-19 outside the province is the source of two other confirmed cases in the region over the past week.

This has forced the province to move that area of the province from the yellow phase back to the orange phase, Premier Blaine Higgs announced at a news briefing Wednesday.

The medical professional travelled to Quebec for personal reasons. Higgs said the individual "was not forthcoming about their reasons for travel upon returning to New Brunswick and they did not self-isolate as a result."

The person, who is in their 50s, then treated patients for two weeks at the Campbellton Regional Hospital and possibly other locations.

Asked whether the health-care worker will face charges, Higgs said the case is still under investigation.

Public Health officials are still contact tracing, but Russell said she's concerned there has already been "significant contact" with the three active cases and more cases will emerge in the days ahead.

The incubation period of the virus is 14 days.

Now the Campbellton region, also known as health Zone 5, is at a higher risk "due to the actions of one irresponsible individual," Higgs told reporters.
from CBC

So, this physician is responsible for the other two recently discovered active cases in the Restigouche region, and since he was actively treating patients, no doubt there will be others. To make matters worse, one of his victims (a child) attended two different daycares and probably infected others as well.

This one careless physician may end up being responsible for dozens of cases in a localized outbreak in this region of the province. It's a small community, so he has already been "outed" on social media. People are pretty pissed off. Restigouche will likely be back on Orange Phase for at least six weeks.
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  #10406  
Old Posted Today, 5:47 PM
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I keep reading the "14-day incubation period" presented as fact in news stories but that is not an accurate description. 14 days is the chosen isolation period, not the typical or universal incubation period of the virus. Confirmed cases in one study from China had a mean period of 5.2 days until onset of symptoms (source).

This is relevant because I've known people who were on day 12 of their isolation period and were still worried they'd develop severe covid symptoms at any point. While that might not be impossible it seems unlikely, and it makes a big difference for somebody to believe they're basically okay but should stay home just in case they're asymptomatic and positive rather than because of a hysterical belief that they could randomly keel over dead at any moment.

This ties in with another misleading narrative around severe complications striking anybody at random, e.g. speculation that a young healthy person who has not experienced significant symptoms (maybe with no significant lower respiratory tract infection) might have mysterious long-term complications based on CT scans of lungs of patients with pneumonia who were on ventilators for weeks.
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  #10407  
Old Posted Today, 5:57 PM
WarrenC12 WarrenC12 is online now
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Quote:
Originally Posted by someone123 View Post
I keep reading the "14-day incubation period" presented as fact in news stories but that is not an accurate description. 14 days is the chosen isolation period, not the typical or universal incubation period of the virus. Confirmed cases in one study from China had a mean period of 5.2 days until onset of symptoms (source).

This is relevant because I've known people who were on day 12 of their isolation period and were still worried they'd develop severe covid symptoms at any point. While that might not be impossible it seems unlikely, and it makes a big difference for somebody to believe they're basically okay but should stay home just in case they're asymptomatic and positive rather than because of a hysterical belief that they could randomly keel over dead at any moment.

This ties in with another misleading narrative around severe complications striking anybody at random, e.g. speculation that a young healthy person who has not experienced significant symptoms (maybe with no significant lower respiratory tract infection) might have mysterious long-term complications based on CT scans of lungs of patients with pneumonia who were on ventilators for weeks.
Yes the 14 day period is definitely a worst case scenario, and people on Day 12 should be in pretty good shape.

However it's worth noting this disease is slow acting, and comes in waves. It takes time for you to feel sick, then you feel like a bad cold for a week, and it can suddenly get worse, requiring immediate hospitalization.

Even people who've dealt with it at home say it comes in waves. You feel better multiple days in a row, then it hits you hard again.

Those who end up dying often feel sick for several weeks before finally succumbing.
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  #10408  
Old Posted Today, 6:20 PM
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travis3000 travis3000 is online now
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Quote:
Originally Posted by WarrenC12 View Post
Yes the 14 day period is definitely a worst case scenario, and people on Day 12 should be in pretty good shape.

However it's worth noting this disease is slow acting, and comes in waves. It takes time for you to feel sick, then you feel like a bad cold for a week, and it can suddenly get worse, requiring immediate hospitalization.

Even people who've dealt with it at home say it comes in waves. You feel better multiple days in a row, then it hits you hard again.

Those who end up dying often feel sick for several weeks before finally succumbing.
88-90% of people never require any hospitalization. This stat holds true in every jurisdiction I've looked at from NY to California to Ontario to Alberta, etc. I hate when people talk about this virus in worst case scenarios and apply them for the entire population. Here's the reality according to the CDC:

-25 to 30% of people feel none or virtually no symptoms at all
-50-60% feel varying levels of symptoms from mild to moderate but recover fully at home
-10% approximately of people require hospitalization, of which 1-2% die and the rest recover

SOME people do report waves , of feeling better followed by relapses. Others feel totally normal 2 weeks later. I've spoken to several of these people. There really is no "one size fits all" for this virus. It affects each person differently.

Also, according to the CDC the average person (who does feel symptoms) will begin feeling them 3-7 days after they come in contact with the virus. The 14 day window is for extreme caution in case they are asymptomatic. But if you're one of the symptomatic patients 99% of people have those symptoms in the 3-7 day window.
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  #10409  
Old Posted Today, 6:24 PM
WarrenC12 WarrenC12 is online now
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Quote:
Originally Posted by travis3000 View Post
88-90% of people never require any hospitalization. This stat holds true in every jurisdiction I've looked at from NY to California to Ontario to Alberta, etc. I hate when people talk about this virus in worst case scenarios and apply them for the entire population. Here's the reality according to the CDC:

-25 to 30% of people feel none or virtually no symptoms at all
-50-60% feel varying levels of symptoms from mild to moderate but recover fully at home
-10% approximately of people require hospitalization, of which 1-2% die and the rest recover

SOME people do report waves , of feeling better followed by relapses. Others feel totally normal 2 weeks later. I've spoken to several of these people. There really is no "one size fits all" for this virus. It affects each person differently.

Also, according to the CDC the average person (who does feel symptoms) will begin feeling them 3-7 days after they come in contact with the virus. The 14 day window is for extreme caution in case they are asymptomatic. But if you're one of the symptomatic patients 99% of people have those symptoms in the 3-7 day window.
Nothing I said wasn't factual. Of course the vast majority of people recover at home, but this virus causes significantly more hospitalization than "the flu" or anything else we like to compare it to.
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  #10410  
Old Posted Today, 6:31 PM
Taeolas Taeolas is online now
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The CBC article is being updated on New Brunswick's situation. But that Health Care worker is now the source of FIVE other cases up in Campbellton. 3 new cases identified in New Brunswick, all up there.

I'm just going off a FB post of someone who watched and transcribes/summarizes the briefings, but it looks like NB is slowing the yellow stage easings by a week, and locking Campbellton in Orange for the foreseeable future. NB's state of emergency is extended another 2 weeks on top of it.

This sort of outbreak isn't unexpected, but it is sad that it was a health care worker that was the cause of it. With 2 90+ year old people now infected as well, there may be a chance our first NB Death could happen; but so far it seems they are holding up well enough. Fingers crossed and hopeful thoughts to all of them up north.
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  #10411  
Old Posted Today, 6:35 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Taeolas View Post
The CBC article is being updated on New Brunswick's situation. But that Health Care worker is now the source of FIVE other cases up in Campbellton. 3 new cases identified in New Brunswick, all up there.

I'm just going off a FB post of someone who watched and transcribes/summarizes the briefings, but it looks like NB is slowing the yellow stage easings by a week, and locking Campbellton in Orange for the foreseeable future. NB's state of emergency is extended another 2 weeks on top of it.

This sort of outbreak isn't unexpected, but it is sad that it was a health care worker that was the cause of it. With 2 90+ year old people now infected as well, there may be a chance our first NB Death could happen; but so far it seems they are holding up well enough. Fingers crossed and hopeful thoughts to all of them up north.
Maybe it’s about time N.B. RCMP patrols Highways 2 & 11 and asks people why they need to leave the province. This is N.B.-equivalent of Case 31.
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We'll soon begin work to extend Highway 417 to Renfrew, first replacing the intersection of Calabogie Road with an interchange!

On va prolonger l'Autoroute 417 jusqu'à Renfrew à bientôt, tout en remplaçant l'intersection du Chemin Calabogie à un échangeur d'abord!
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  #10412  
Old Posted Today, 6:38 PM
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563 new cases reported today in quebec with 74 new deaths of which 70 are from long-term care homes. A decline of 53 for people being hospitalized.
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