July 1, 2020 Population Estimates - United States of America

[bigstick]

Originally Posted by mrnyc

^ nah, because atl is not the low end of the south usa, but half of those canadian cities you picked are.

Originally Posted by memph

While Canada doesn't have anywhere as warm or sunny as the US Sunbelt, the difference between the colder parts of Canada that are inhabited, and the warmer parts that are inhabited, is comparable.

Average winter temperature (Dec-Feb)

Fort McMurray: -15.3C
Winnipeg: -14.3C
Saskatoon: -12.6C
Edmonton: -8.9C
St. John's: -3.6C
Halifax: -2.8C
Toronto: -2.3C
Kelowna: -2.0C
Vancouver: 4.2C

Buffalo: -2.7C
Chicago: -2.5C
Detroit: -2.3C
Indianapolis: -0.8C
Columbus: 0.0C
Nashville: 4.4C
Charlotte: 5.6C
Raleigh: 6.1C
Greenville: 6.7C
Atlanta: 7.4C

So the difference in the winter temperature between the colder parts of the Great Lakes (Upstate NY, Chicago/Milwaukee) and the warmer parts of the Sunbelt boom towns (ex Atlanta) is about 10C, same as the difference between the milder parts of Eastern Canada (ex Halifax, Toronto) and the colder parts of the Prairies, and that doesn't even take into account coastal BC which is 6-7C warmer still.

Atl is not 2 degrees warmer than Charlotte, Atl is colder than Greenville, In fact it is 25 degrees in Atl right now vs. 33 in Charlotte. 12-25-20 530 PM.. Where are these number from???

[BG918]

Originally Posted by bigstick

Atl is not 2 degrees warmer than Charlotte, Atl is colder than Greenville, In fact it is 25 degrees in Atl right now vs. 33 in Charlotte. 12-25-20 530 PM.. Where are these number from???

Fun fact: Atlanta has the highest elevation of major cities east of the Mississippi River at 1,050 ft. which creates a more temperate climate.

[iheartthed]

Originally Posted by BG918

Fun fact: Atlanta has the highest elevation of major cities east of the Mississippi River at 1,050 ft. which creates a more temperate climate.

Pittsburgh?

[ChiSoxRox]

Originally Posted by iheartthed

Pittsburgh?

Downtown is around 740 feet. Pittsburgh has the higher airport and higher maximum elevation, but its elevation range is greater than Atlanta.

The largest eastern city whose urban core is higher than Atlanta is Asheville, NC.

[ssiguy]

Originally Posted by bossabreezes

I see absolutely nothing wrong with a slowing population growth. Expecting constant growth is not sustainable.

What we need is a country of very high producing individuals, not millions upon millions of low skilled immigrants. Clearly during COVID our Government has shown it's not able to take care of it's own people, let alone letting in everyone who wants to be in the country.

Legal immigration is fine, but Illegal immigration isn't. Unfortunately with the current narrative, we will likely see huge increases in illegal immigration mainly because we've decided that we want to be a lawless state. I'm 100% for a quota system or immigration of skilled immigrants and absolutely no chain immigration.

I think a lot of Canadians feel the same especially due to our high real estate prices. Governments know this but Canada still has exceptionally high immigration rates.

The reason for this is not so much just wanting growth for growth sake but rather due to long-term demographics. Immigrants are overwhelmingly younger and Canada needs those skilled trained workers as our system is based upon points and the more educated you are, the far better chance you have of getting in. The problem is not the population per se but rather the make-up of it.

Like the US, we are not reproducing ourselves and in Canada it is even worse as we have the lowest birth rates in the entire English and French speaking world. This leaves both countries with the prospect of far fewer workers having to financially support a far older population who are not only growing in numbers but are also living longer and the longer they live the more expensive they become in both old age pensions and healthcare costs. In short we need these immigrants to keep our pension plans and healthcare systems solvent.

[plinko]

This doesn’t seem possible given that apportionment is not based on YOY trends but over the decade. CA still gained 2M people, which is not nothing. And you’ve totally missed Idaho.

Originally Posted by ChiSoxRox

Using this tool from the U of Michigan, corresponding House changes.

AZ +1
CA -1
CO +1
FL +2
IL -1
MI -1
MN -1
MT +1
NC +1
NY -2
OH -1
OR +1
PA -1
RI -1
TX +3
WV -1

[ChiSoxRox]

Originally Posted by plinko

This doesn’t seem possible given that apportionment is not based on YOY trends but over the decade. CA still gained 2M people, which is not nothing. And you’ve totally missed Idaho.

That's the apportionment shift from the cumulative 2010 to 2020 changes. Put another way, running the apportionment formula on the 2020 estimates, and comparing to what the 2010 Census apportioned.

The formula is the Huntington-Hill method and straightforward: give every state a seat to start, priority number equals state population over square root(number of seats times number plus one), and highest priority number gets the next seat. Feel free to test it yourself with Excel.

Bigger states change seat numbers more rapidly. Idaho is growing fast, but it's population is still small enough that it doesn't get to the 3rd seat priority number quickly enough. Meanwhile, California isn't growing at the rate it needs to keep 53 seats relative to the rest of the country.

[JManc]

Originally Posted by ChiSoxRox

Louisiana dropping is a bit surprising to me. Does it have high taxes for the Sunbelt? An effect of the oil downturn? Checking the parish numbers, looks like New Orleans is dropping again for the first time post-Katrina, but the decline is pretty evenly spread across the state.

Many are moving to Texas. Economy here is much stronger, no income taxes and they're still close to home; Houston is a 6 hour drive from New Orleans. DFW is fairly close to Shreveport and Monroe.

[DCReid]

Originally Posted by JManc

Many are moving to Texas. Economy here is much stronger, no income taxes and they're still close to home; Houston is a 6 hour drive from New Orleans. DFW is fairly close to Shreveport and Monroe.

That was my guess - a 'brain' and people drain to TX. It's probably why states like Oklahoma and Arkansas are growing a bit slower than one would expect, although they are doing better than Louisiana. They have slightly better economies than Louisiana as well.

[memph]

Originally Posted by bigstick

Atl is not 2 degrees warmer than Charlotte, Atl is colder than Greenville, In fact it is 25 degrees in Atl right now vs. 33 in Charlotte. 12-25-20 530 PM.. Where are these number from???

The climate data tables on Wikipedia.

[PhillyRising]

Originally Posted by xzmattzx

Delaware's growth is not that far behind, and sticks out in the Northeast section as second-biggest by raw numbers, only behind Virginia, with 8-10 times the population.

Idaho's one-year growth: 1.0211
Delaware's one-year growth: 1.0103

For perspective, here's some other high-growth states:
Florida's one-year growth: 1.0112
Texas' one-year growth: 1.0129
Colorado's one-year growth: 1.0085
Utah's one-year growth: 1.0145
Nevada's one-year growth: 1.0153

Delaware's growth is mainly due to the burgeoning retirement area, Sussex County. It's been off the radar for a couple decades, first just attracting northern Delawareans to the other end of the state where they used to go to the beach for the weekends in the summer, then progressing to people from the DC area also retiring at the beach, since coastal Delaware is their beach place too. But now it's just beginning to get national prominence. I don't remember the subject of the story in full, but some political article I was reading was discussing retirement places and migration patterns in the US, mentioning the Carolinas, Florida, and Texas, and putting coastal Delaware in the same breath. This was not a Biden thing, either. Long story short, Delaware is the main place going against the general trends in the Northeast.

Yep. My plan when I retire is to move close to the Delaware beaches.

It also helps that property taxes are dirt cheap and there isn't any sales tax in Delaware.

The only negative about the area by the beaches is that developers have ruined the land along Route 1 with all the ticky tacky stuff they have thrown up over the last 20-25 years. The outlets were bad enough but now it's just out of control and the traffic in the summer is beyond crazy. Once I'm in a hotel in Rehoboth my car doesn't move and I just stay in town...there is no use to go out to the highway.

[TexasPlaya]

Originally Posted by austlar1

Louisiana is a backward state heavily dependent on oil and gas revenue. It has antiquated infrastructure and underfunded public schools and state universities. The two largest cities, Baton Rouge and New Orleans have major violent crime problems. Political corruption is viewed as business as usual by many or most residents. The climate is brutal, especially in coastal areas that are subject to hurricanes and frequent flooding. New Orleans is still structurally quite ossified with an entrenched ruling elite. Local efforts to incubate tech related business activity produce only modest success. Visitors love New Orleans, but those that stick around frequently become disenchanted in short order. There are always exceptions, but I think my observations about the state are rather valid. Louisiana is always trying to get its act together and rarely has much to show for it.

Well said..... While commodities have tumbled since 2014, its revenue problems predate it. Tens of billions of new/upgraded O&G infrastructure have been constructed and exports were up but Louisiana gives some of the most generous tax breaks to its O&G producers.

This is a great video that tells the difference just over state lines. As much I crap on Texas on not investing in itself, Louisiana is a whole different thing.

• Video Link

[TexasPlaya]

Originally Posted by JManc

Many are moving to Texas. Economy here is much stronger, no income taxes and they're still close to home; Houston is a 6 hour drive from New Orleans. DFW is fairly close to Shreveport and Monroe.

Yup, folks have just been moving west across the state line.... certainly not across the eastern state line as it's more of the same over there.

[PhillyRising]

I'm not really shocked about New York's decline. During the summer of 2019, I never saw so many cars with New York plates riding around Chester County and the Philly burbs overall. I kept thinking what is going on? I didn't hear of some big corporate relocation. Maybe there was...I don't know but I couldn't drive for more than a few minutes and not see another car with New York plates. We are seeing a huge surge in residential construction so people are moving here. I've seen Florida, North Carolina, Montana and Texas plates parked in my complex lot over the last year or two.

I am assuming the decline in PA is because the growth in the Southeast and South Central regions can't wash out the bigger declines being seen along the northern tier and Western PA.

...and one more thing...can we really trust census numbers produced by this regime?

[Buckeye Native 001]

We can probably trust that the numbers won't be a completely accurate reflection of the United States in 2020

[Austin55]

Originally Posted by yuriandrade

Pittsburgh keeps falling. I don't think their economy diversification is enough to stop it: https://www.recenter.tamu.edu/data/population/; 22k births, 27k deaths.

The US as a whole is set to shrink by the 2030's anyway, when nearly 4 million will be dying every year.

Does anyone know why the numbers in this TAMU source fluctuate so much in 2010?

[N90]

Originally Posted by Austin55

Does anyone know why the numbers in this TAMU source fluctuate so much in 2010?

The year at the beginning of the decade numbers are the smallest. 2010s population change only accounts for 9 months and not the standard 12 months. Meaning it is July 1, 2009 to April 1, 2010.

The 3 months missing are the summer months when most of the migration in the US happens. And TAMU is not the source, they are just depicting the info the census bureau provided.

[Austin55]

America will have a smaller population for the inauguration than the election.

https://www.politicalorphans.com/our...vYHrIrH9fxvhdY

[BG918]

Originally Posted by Austin55

America will have a smaller population for the inauguration than the election.

https://www.politicalorphans.com/our...vYHrIrH9fxvhdY

Wow that is pretty remarkable if true. Another effect of the absolute disaster Trump has been for the U.S.

[ssiguy]

A lot of people, of all socio-economic standings, do not consider population stabilisation as a bad thing.

As far as blaming it on Trump, that's a stretch. As much as I loath to come to idiot's defence, this cannot be blamed on Trump. The US, like all Western countries, suffers from a fast falling birth rate over the last 50 years and now we are to the point of basically shrinking without immigration. If the population isn't growing the way it was it's because Americans, and especially urban Democrats, aren't having enough babies.

Right now the US may require twice as many immigrants as it takes in now to keep the
population growing but in 30 years that ratio maybe 10X as many.