Our new Roaring 20s?

[Andy6]

Originally Posted by WarrenC12

It won't end like the surrender of the Nazis though. It will be a slow process that has different phases around the world.

Yes, I don't think the model of VE Day applies here ... there won't be a VV Day.

[Acajack]

Originally Posted by niwell

Myself and my immediate social group likely will be at the bar as soon as possible, and were at patios when we were allowed. I personally can't wait to go to my local (if it still exists) alone and chat with randoms sitting at the bar. But I don't think this extends to everyone, and I know people who I suspect will be wary of any of this for a long time.
.

I also have a similar social circle. When bars reopened this past summer I would say a majority of the regulars were no longer there.

There have been online gatherings as well trying to bring people together but many usual suspects are still missing.

I think a lot of them are gone for good.

Without overdramatizing I think there is some truth to ''things will never be quite the same again".

A lot more of our social networks than we realize will have fallen apart and we'll be forced to reconstruct new ones. If we have the energy and desire to take the trouble to do so.

[davee930]

Originally Posted by MolsonExport

Indeed. Pretty "spot on" analogy too. The art/film of the 20s was outstanding too. The (two) world's greatest skylines ever (downtown NYC, midtown NYC) may have reached their zeniths in the 1930s, but these consisted of buildings designed and started in the 1920s.

This is SSP, after all. No finer skylines have ever existed, nor will ever exist, than downtown and midtown Manhattan of the 1930s-40s. These were the pinnacles of quality skyscraper skylines. A million times better than the extremely dull blue glass boxes dominating most cities today.




reddit

Metropolis, Fritz Lang, 1927

blogspot

AHHH these pictures cause me pain. You are right, the two greatest skylines ever to exist. Nothing comes close. Including those two skylines as they are today.

[scryer]

NGL, the new roaring 20's really feel like the 30's depression era all over again so far .

[ssiguy]

The 20s could be like prisoner finally getting parole. Even prisoners who are determined to go straight, after release the first thing they do it smoke a joint, get drunk, and have sex. It's a catharsis of emotions.................we don't miss things until they are taken away.

As far as the economy is concerned, we should be more rational with our dollars but we aren't because people are not rational. We again saw this in the 1920s where people had to do without many of things they had become accustomed to and governments were saddled with monstrous war induced debt levels but the opposite happened as people and governments went on a spending spree.

We are already seeing this in Canada with our ridiculous soaring real estate prices and huge increase in personal spending despite the fact that millions are still unemployed, population growth has come to a halt, wages are depressed, and both governments and individuals are saddled with staggering debt levels. Of course this is also currently playing out in the stock market which, like 1920s , is soaring to new heights based upon nothing but speculation and has become a glorified pyramid scheme.

[Obadno]

Im not sure why anyone thinks this "roaring" 20's is going to begin.

If anything I think we are seeing something more like the 1970;s in most of the USA and maybe the Weimar 20's in less advanced economies that have no ability to take this kind of hit economically and absolutely 0 interest in help coming out of the western world.

Europe and east Asia are basically all heading into mass retirement right now consumption levels are never coming back and American Isolationism isn't going anywhere.

Maybe it will feel like the Roaring 20's in North America from the perspective of much of the world going through a slow drawn out collapse by comparison.

[acottawa]

Originally Posted by ssiguy

The 20s could be like prisoner finally getting parole. Even prisoners who are determined to go straight, after release the first thing they do it smoke a joint, get drunk, and have sex. It's a catharsis of emotions.................we don't miss things until they are taken away.

As far as the economy is concerned, we should be more rational with our dollars but we aren't because people are not rational. We again saw this in the 1920s where people had to do without many of things they had become accustomed to and governments were saddled with monstrous war induced debt levels but the opposite happened as people and governments went on a spending spree.

We are already seeing this in Canada with our ridiculous soaring real estate prices and huge increase in personal spending despite the fact that millions are still unemployed, population growth has come to a halt, wages are depressed, and both governments and individuals are saddled with staggering debt levels. Of course this is also currently playing out in the stock market which, like 1920s , is soaring to new heights based upon nothing but speculation and has become a glorified pyramid scheme.

Yeah, I think the stagnating 20s will be a more likely result than roaring 20s. To the extent there are similarities (people have lost confidence in the old elite) it is likely to lead to unfavorable outcomes as conspiracy theories and far-left and far-right ideologies become more common.

I think the one thing that might change this outcome would be a transformative invention or two, maybe motivated by the pandemic. Inventions of the last 15 years have been incremental improvements on existing technology and have not really driven economic growth.

[casper]

Originally Posted by acottawa

Yeah, I think the stagnating 20s will be a more likely result than roaring 20s. To the extent there are similarities (people have lost confidence in the old elite) it is likely to lead to unfavorable outcomes as conspiracy theories and far-left and far-right ideologies become more common.

I think the one thing that might change this outcome would be a transformative invention or two, maybe motivated by the pandemic. Inventions of the last 15 years have been incremental improvements on existing technology and have not really driven economic growth.

I suspect we are going to see a move to the 1950s. We are heading down the path of a cold war with China.

You see signs of it in the US. It is one of the few unifying aspects of the Trump and Biden administration. It will cause profound shockwaves in the US economy.

On the Canadian front, we will likely play a more diplomatic role, however it will be clear which side we are on in practice. It will also impact us directly and indirectly.

[Obadno]

Originally Posted by casper

On the Canadian front, we will likely play a more diplomatic role, however it will be clear which side we are on in practice. It will also impact us directly and indirectly.

Canada is kind of stuck with the USA by default. Not much can be done about that.

[acottawa]

Originally Posted by casper

I suspect we are going to see a move to the 1950s. We are heading down the path of a cold war with China.

You see signs of it in the US. It is one of the few unifying aspects of the Trump and Biden administration. It will cause profound shockwaves in the US economy.

On the Canadian front, we will likely play a more diplomatic role, however it will be clear which side we are on in practice. It will also impact us directly and indirectly.

Canada’s diplomacy and military were so much more capable in the 50s. I can’t see us reprising that role in Cold War II.

I agree there may be a lot of similarities with the 50s. At least in the 50s the Cold War nonsense was balanced by crazy economic growth. Hard to see that happening.

[Architype]

It's funny that people would associate the cold war with the fifties, when the cold war actually went on until 1991. A cold war with China in the 2020s would also have markedly different characteristics than the cold war with the USSR in the 50 thru 80s. While the 20th century cold war didn't affect the world economy in a greatly debilitating way (more to the detriment of the USSR), with China, one could expect the economic impacts to have greater global repercussions, but doing damage to both sides.

[casper]

Originally Posted by Architype

It's funny that people would associate the cold war with the fifties, when the cold war actually went on until 1991. A cold war with China in the 2020s would also have markedly different characteristics than the cold war with the USSR in the 50 thru 80s. While the 20th century cold war didn't affect the world economy in a greatly debilitating way (more to the detriment of the USSR), with China, one could expect the economic impacts to have greater global repercussions, but doing damage to both sides.

The start of the cold war is the transformative phase. Once in full swing you simply have their weird isolated block similar to North Korea.

The difference is our societies are so much more interdependent today than back then. We are going to see a great deal of disruption. My prediction is Canada will try and fail to follow a path similar to what it did with Cuba. I don't think the US or China is going to play along with us being neutral. We will eventually have to pick sides.

[LilZebra]

The 1920s brought us broadcast radio and Jazz music. It brought us Disney and Mickey Mouse and talking film.

Computing was still mechanical. Cars were better enclosed.

My Dad was conceived in October of '29 and born June 12, 1930 at the beginning of the Great Depression. Not sure iff my grandparents on the Gimli farm at the time had planned for that.

[acottawa]

Originally Posted by Architype

It's funny that people would associate the cold war with the fifties, when the cold war actually went on until 1991. A cold war with China in the 2020s would also have markedly different characteristics than the cold war with the USSR in the 50 thru 80s. While the 20th century cold war didn't affect the world economy in a greatly debilitating way (more to the detriment of the USSR), with China, one could expect the economic impacts to have greater global repercussions, but doing damage to both sides.

I wonder how big the impact would be. Canada mostly exports raw materials to China and imports goods made by Western companies. If those factories move elsewhere (India, Indonesia, Vietnam, maybe Africa) we would export raw materials to those countries instead and import goods made by Western companies. There might be a few years of disruption, but after that it might not be noticeable.

[casper]

Originally Posted by acottawa

I wonder how big the impact would be. Canada mostly exports raw materials to China and imports goods made by Western companies. If those factories move elsewhere (India, Indonesia, Vietnam, maybe Africa) we would export raw materials to those countries instead and import goods made by Western companies. There might be a few years of disruption, but after that it might not be noticeable.

The dynamics of having a large number of Canadian with deep family and business ties back to China is going to going to a play more so then when it occurred with the USSR.

I do agree Walmart and Lablaws will shift from contracting factories in China to make shirts to Bangladesh, India or other parts.

Our exports to China are interesting:
- $2.77 B Wood pulp
- $1.97 B ore, slag and ash
- $1.14 B vehicles (excluding trains and)
- $1.09 B wood, wood products including charcoal
- $981 M sea food
- $880 M oil etc.
- $772 M oil seeds, fruit, grain,
- $705 M cereals
- $645 M fertilizer
- $641 M meat products.
https://tradingeconomics.com/canada/exports/china

I was surprised to see food at $3B and forest products at $3.8B.

[acottawa]

Originally Posted by casper

The dynamics of having a large number of Canadian with deep family and business ties back to China is going to going to a play more so then when it occurred with the USSR.

I think those ties will diminish as the political situation worsens, as ties to the Russian Empire diminished. I am also not sure how long China will allow emigration as their demographic situation worsens.

[biguc]

This stuff about China is extremely hysterical.

Originally Posted by Acajack

I also have a similar social circle. When bars reopened this past summer I would say a majority of the regulars were no longer there.

There have been online gatherings as well trying to bring people together but many usual suspects are still missing.

I think a lot of them are gone for good.

Without overdramatizing I think there is some truth to ''things will never be quite the same again".

A lot more of our social networks than we realize will have fallen apart and we'll be forced to reconstruct new ones. If we have the energy and desire to take the trouble to do so.

I'm sincerely worried about how this will affect zoomers. They were already a pretty boring lot who didn't like going outside and couldn't carry a conversation; quarantine has pushed that tendency to its conclusion. With them missing critical years in their teens and early twenties, I won't be surprised to see turn into a lost generation of internet trolls.

[LakeLocker]

Originally Posted by kool maudit

There is not going to be a 'party' decade because people are not like that right now. People are risk-averse and institutionally oriented right now. The Western world is comparatively old and sterile.

We could see a partying culture emerge either during or after the next war - the natural partner of sex is death.

I feel like this is a statement that may end up aging like milk.

I'd argue because so many people have been derailed that it's gonna go even further than expected. A whole lot of people are giving up on their dreams/having kids etc thanks to covid.

I wouldn't be shocked to see people going to the extreme in the next few years. That feel of "what can" or "what might" happen drags a society forward, hoping for the best. Nowadays it seems obvious than for most people no year is gonna be better than 2022-2023.


I'm at that age where me and my wife are making some real decisions. And if we were any less family orientated we probably wouldn't be thinking about having kids.

I suspect we're gonna see a real drop in the birth rate that won't ever recover.

I think because you guys are at the other side of 30, it's easier to forget how many people have been completely derailed by this.

My generation was super late in "adulting" and this is just the straw that broke the camels back.

Me and my wife have no debt, no interest in owning a car condo etc, and we are so not the norm among millenials.

Family to use is a priority and we are wavering, can't imagine how the rest of my less conservative peers think of it all.

[LakeLocker]

Originally Posted by dleung

It's always so predictable how they overlap with Trumpism. Just once I wanna see a democrat incel lol

Because to be an "incel" you have to be aware of your circumstance, the left goes a long way in creating that circumstance.

[LakeLocker]

Originally Posted by casper

The dynamics of having a large number of Canadian with deep family and business ties back to China is going to going to a play more so then when it occurred with the USSR.

I do agree Walmart and Lablaws will shift from contracting factories in China to make shirts to Bangladesh, India or other parts.

Our exports to China are interesting:
- $2.77 B Wood pulp
- $1.97 B ore, slag and ash
- $1.14 B vehicles (excluding trains and)
- $1.09 B wood, wood products including charcoal
- $981 M sea food
- $880 M oil etc.
- $772 M oil seeds, fruit, grain,
- $705 M cereals
- $645 M fertilizer
- $641 M meat products.
https://tradingeconomics.com/canada/exports/china

I was surprised to see food at $3B and forest products at $3.8B.

The Chinese diaspora is a much bigger threat than the CCP.

We have no way of screening party loyalist from the people wanting good old freedoms.

People want to get all upset by Japanese internment camps, but we still have no answer to the problem.

The thing is as the good come with the bad, the good start becoming afraid of the bad that came with them.

It's a big big problem.