Will the pandemic reduce construction of office skyscrapers long-term

[C.]

Originally Posted by SIGSEGV

I don't know about that, remote work sucks in a lot of ways. It works well for some people but it's definitely not more productive for most. I think many people will find that it sucks that don't already know.

A couple anecdotal experiences

A legal company in a downtown office building that assists in processing of foreclosures originally had a hostile telecommuting policy. There is a currently a staff of around 30, and the company was planning to expand their office lease to accommodate growth in the number of employees. They gruelingly allowed their employees to work from home using computers that track every keep stroke for productivity.

They found that productivity per employee has not decreased working from home, and if anything, it's become more efficient. They are no longer looking to expand their office space. They're giving up the space completely and moving to 100 percent remote operations. This is going to save the company a couple hundred thousand a year in office space.

A similar example is I know an older manager that was not supportive of telecommuting at all. The belief is people would not be working as hard at home. The manager planned daily video conference calls using Microsoft Teams at first to ensure people was working, but the increased in productivity was so evident the daily Teams meeting is no longer necessary and now the manager is the biggest proponent of working from home.

I had a few other first-hand examples, but you get the idea.

I agree this is is a watershed moment. It doesn't matter if an employee likes working from home or not. It's going to be much more efficient and cost effective for companies to allow employees to work from home where there isn't a critical need to be in the office. A lot of people I know are loving the ability to work from home when normally a company would never had sign off on such a policy but had to due to the pandemic.

Commercial Real Estate is screwed.

[C.]

Originally Posted by aquablue

USA had a chance years ago to make themselves into European looking cities with people on the street and lively street-cafe lifestyle. But the cores today in most cities are just places where a few white collered office workers go 9-5 and bums hang out. Missed your chance, now the whole focus will be to live in the low-density areas and telecommute.. nice work, ya'll missed your chance.

Obvious trolling attempt is obvious.

[Tom In Chicago]

Originally Posted by aquablue

USA will become more suburbanized as a result, the rise of "downtown" was over before it began.

No it won't. . .

. . .

[DCReid]

Financial services giant Morgan Stanley is going to occupy less office space in the post-pandemic future, CEO James Gorman said during an interview with Bloomberg TV April 16...


https://www.bisnow.com/national/news...-estate-103989

[ardecila]

I do work with Starbucks and they are looking very intently at building new stores as drive-thru only... I was kinda shocked when I saw that, after years of them pushing the value of their cafes as "third places" for people to hang out and meet physically.

Nobody knows yet how society will look after the pandemic ends, my instincts tell me things will go back to normal and I still believe that (they always have after pandemics historically), but it's disconcerting to see major corporations taking concrete actions towards a more car-centric, anti-social future.

[mhays]

It's healthier to walk to a coffee shop or anything else. That sounds like catering to fear.

Thankfully we don't allow drive-throughs in my city, or at least the core parts.

[Vlajos]

Originally Posted by iheartthed

Also, being forced to work remotely is absolutely terrible. Once the dust settles, I bet a lot of people will drop the romanticism of it, so I don't expect behavior to dramatically change. I was forced to do it for three weeks after Hurricane Sandy and hoped I'd never be forced to do something like that again. But here we are...

I agree, I can't stand this. Can't wait to get back to the office.

[mhays]

More people will work from home in two years than did so last year, no question.

The people who already did will continue to do so. The people who didn't but are now trying it will start to do so...the question is whether it's 1% or several times that.

The supporting tech is much better already.

Companies are learning that some people (not all) can be very productive at home. Some will dive in on a large scale.

Sick work policies might change permanently.

Much of the effect will be flexible policies, not just binary all-or-nothing.

[The North One]

The productivity pitfalls of working from home in the age of COVID-19
By Adam Gorlick

Nicholas Bloom is widely known for his research showing the benefits of working from home. But in the current coronavirus crisis, the economist fears productivity will plummet.

“We are home working alongside our kids, in unsuitable spaces, with no choice and no in-office days,” says Bloom, a senior fellow at the Stanford Institute for Economic Policy Research (SIEPR). “This will create a productivity disaster for firms.”

https://news.stanford.edu/2020/03/30...-age-covid-19/

Worth the read. He goes into why the work from home productivity study that people often cite is highly flawed and only applies to very few workers many of whom went back to full time office work, also all the home workers still periodically came in to the physical company office during the study. He fears innovation will suffer greatly as well and that the isolation of working from home will cause a mental health crisis.

[Handro]

I think within a few years of a vaccine or herd immunity things will return to normal when economics allow. The world has lived through some massive and horrifying pandemics and come out the other side--way bigger and way scarier than this one (can you imagine if our family, friends and neighbors people were dropping dead by the millions covered in boils ala small pox?) I think most of us (me included until I had this realization) overvalue our place in history because we are over saturated with media.

Everywhere you turn, its about us/this. If this was 50 years ago, we'd have some government experts telling us what to do, we'd do it, and maybe catch some new developments on the 9 o'clock news after dinner. It might be scary but we'd survive.

Now we're all at home reading/watching the news all day, browsing social media and reading sensational stories about "perfectly healthy" (but obese) 30 year olds who die after two weeks on a ventilator (versus 7,000 30 year olds who have a shitty few days in bed at home.)

We need a team of economists and public health officials to determine a plan, and the president to convey it. That's it. If they want it to be up to the states, we need teams of economists and public health officials to determine a plan and the federal government to quietly support those efforts. Simple. What we have is 80 million non-experts arguing with hundreds of virtual strangers online about stuff the vast majority of us do not have any true knowledge to be arguing about while political leaders stir shit up to try and win the 12-hour news cycle over one another.

Anyway, long winded way of saying yes office space will come back online when it's economically viable. Zoom is convenient and we may see more flex schedules but video meetings are stilted and exhausting, business is best done in person.

[C.]

Originally Posted by mhays

It's healthier to walk to a coffee shop or anything else. That sounds like catering to fear.

Thankfully we don't allow drive-throughs in my city, or at least the core parts.

What city is this that doesn't allow drive-throughs, if you don't mind me asking?

[atlantaguy]

Originally Posted by The North One

The productivity pitfalls of working from home in the age of COVID-19
By Adam Gorlick

https://news.stanford.edu/2020/03/30...-age-covid-19/

Worth the read. He goes into why the work from home productivity study that people often cite is highly flawed and only applies to very few workers many of whom went back to full time office work, also all the home workers still periodically came in to the physical company office during the study. He fears innovation will suffer greatly as well and that the isolation of working from home will cause a mental health crisis.

Man, you're really pushing this garbage aren't you?

Again, there are many studies that prove the opposite. In the real world, productivity improves.

[SFBruin]

Originally Posted by BG918

I was talking to a colleague about this. We think this is a watershed moment for remote work and that it will become more prevalent after the pandemic.

I honestly think the opposite. My mom has been working from home during this pandemic, and it seems to show just how hard working from home is.

We don't really have a home office, sometimes there are wi-fi issues, sometimes both of my moms just need to work at the same time.

I want to like wfh, with global warming and all, but it will be a good thing when the office opens up.

[mhays]

Originally Posted by C.

What city is this that doesn't allow drive-throughs, if you don't mind me asking?

Seattle in core districts at least. Probably several others.

[mhays]

Originally Posted by atlantaguy

Again, there are many studies that prove the opposite. In the real world, productivity improves.

That's not proven at all, in a broad sense.

Most examples pre-Covid are people and companies who've self-selected WFH. That's hardly a typical group or scenario.

Some companies moved large groups to WFH pre-Covid, and those are closer to control groups. But those were also self-selected by companies who thought their types of work would do well remotely.

Even now, many if not the large majority of offices aren't getting a real parallel. Expectations and workloads are very different from normal.

I suspect the real answer will be "sometimes." It'll depend on the work, the personalities, the tools, and so on.

[destroycreate]

Originally Posted by Handro

I think within a few years of a vaccine or herd immunity things will return to normal when economics allow. The world has lived through some massive and horrifying pandemics and come out the other side--way bigger and way scarier than this one (can you imagine if our family, friends and neighbors people were dropping dead by the millions covered in boils ala small pox?) I think most of us (me included until I had this realization) overvalue our place in history because we are over saturated with media.

Everywhere you turn, its about us/this. If this was 50 years ago, we'd have some government experts telling us what to do, we'd do it, and maybe catch some new developments on the 9 o'clock news after dinner. It might be scary but we'd survive.

Now we're all at home reading/watching the news all day, browsing social media and reading sensational stories about "perfectly healthy" (but obese) 30 year olds who die after two weeks on a ventilator (versus 7,000 30 year olds who have a shitty few days in bed at home.)

We need a team of economists and public health officials to determine a plan, and the president to convey it. That's it. If they want it to be up to the states, we need teams of economists and public health officials to determine a plan and the federal government to quietly support those efforts. Simple. What we have is 80 million non-experts arguing with hundreds of virtual strangers online about stuff the vast majority of us do not have any true knowledge to be arguing about while political leaders stir shit up to try and win the 12-hour news cycle over one another.

Anyway, long winded way of saying yes office space will come back online when it's economically viable. Zoom is convenient and we may see more flex schedules but video meetings are stilted and exhausting, business is best done in person.

Perfectly articulated.

[Shawn]

Just imagine if WeWork had managed to launch an IPO . . .

[The North One]

Originally Posted by atlantaguy

Man, you're really pushing this garbage aren't you?

Again, there are many studies that prove the opposite. In the real world, productivity improves.

Garbage? It's an economist from Stanford who's known for his research on working from home.

In the real world you're just an ignorant bigot.

[mousquet]

"Working from home" is called "télétravail". Obviously, it's being widely studied and developed everywhere right now, but everybody thinks it's only acceptable part-time, which sounds reasonable. Say 2 days a week at most for those who live in a distance from their work place, 'cause it's convenient and time-saving to them.

However, "in the real world", you need to be in actual touch with your coworkers to remain productive. It's not the same feeling as any mail or teleconference of any kind.
For instance, when coworkers share a talk around cups of coffee at their work place, their creativity is somehow stimulated. It's just that simple. You may think it's something irrational like some dumb backward superstitious belief or whatever unreal, there have been management studies to show it for years and years by now.

That's why managers won't overdo it over here. It only works part-time, certainly not full-time.

[Nomad9]

Originally Posted by Shawn

Just imagine if WeWork had managed to launch an IPO . . .

I actually think WeWork (or similar companies) have a bright future. Obviously work from home works poorly for some people and tasks, but great for others. It seems to make sense to lessen your actual long-term, high square footage lease space and instead coordinate occasional working spaces at WeWork or whatever when needed

I have a white collar job and like working from home. How much money would my employer save by not giving me (and 50+ others) a permanent office? The alternative to WeWork could just be companies leasing less space but not having individualized offices/desks for each employer—cut office space in half and employees can reserve a desk/office if they need to go in that day or week.