2014 Civic Census

[Surrealplaces]

Originally Posted by Wooster

Next week.

Looking forward to the results.

[Chadillaccc]

Originally Posted by Surrealplaces

If I had to take a guess, I would say 1,195,000

Sounds great to me! That would be a growth of like 45 000 though. That would be insane.

[Surrealplaces]

Originally Posted by Chadillaccc

Sounds great to me! That would be a growth of like 45 000 though. That would be insane.

Yup

[Chadillaccc]

Hopefully Wooster means the good kind of interesting (40 000+) rather than the bad kind of interesting (under 30 000)...

[Surrealplaces]

Originally Posted by Chadillaccc

Hopefully Wooster means the good kind of interesting (40 000+) rather than the bad kind of interesting (under 30 000)...

Pretty sure it's the good kind

[Chadillaccc]

Yayyy! Here's hoping!!! Perhaps past 1.2 million?

[Spring2008]

Originally Posted by Surrealplaces

If I had to take a guess, I would say 1,195,000

That would be outrageous, but who knows lol

[DizzyEdge]

Originally Posted by Chadillaccc

Yayyy! Here's hoping!!! Perhaps past 1.2 million?

If it was 1.2 what would the CMA be?

[Chadillaccc]

Well a growth of 50 000 in the city alone would put the CMA at around 1 420 000, not including the growth in the suburban cities. So probably around 1 430 000 or something. Though my projection is closer to just 1.4 million for the CMA this year, with the true CMA ( current cma + Okotoks, Foothills) rounded off to 1.5 million.

[DarthMalgus]

Including Foothills and Okotoks in the Calgary CMA results in a metro area of less than 3500 sq miles, which is still quite modest compared to most other metros in the 1 to 2 million range. Peers in that group such as Nashville, OKC and Kansas City are double or more that land area.

I expect an impressive population growth this census, but honestly I will be surprised if we are much over 30,000. The boom of the mid-2000s was a time of crazy growth and we still surpassed 30,000 growth only one year. 45,000 would be a massive number...I just don't think it is possible.

[Spring2008]

1,195,000 city proper seems like a huge stretch but you never know with Calgary.

The Calgary Economic Region, our true metro IMO was at 1,470,000 last July so should be around 1,520,000 now. Could be at 2M in 10 years if things stay on track.

[Chadillaccc]

Originally Posted by DarthMalgus

Including Foothills and Okotoks in the Calgary CMA results in a metro area of less than 3500 sq miles, which is still quite modest compared to most other metros in the 1 to 2 million range. Peers in that group such as Nashville, OKC and Kansas City are double or more that land area.

I expect an impressive population growth this census, but honestly I will be surprised if we are much over 30,000. The boom of the mid-2000s was a time of crazy growth and we still surpassed 30,000 growth only one year. 45,000 would be a massive number...I just don't think it is possible.

The Edmonton Capital Region is 3640 square miles, so less than 3500 is still fine, especially considering how many people are in the extra area that, in a way, feed off the city of Calgary (water, retail, employment, etc), so it's not a big stretch.

The CMA population grew by around 56 000 last year, so I wouldn't be surprised about a growth of 60 000 this year... especially looking at the numbers out of Cochrane so far, the highest ever.

[DarthMalgus]

60000 would be awesome. Amazing that not so long ago we hit 1 million metro, we are already looking at hitting 2 million in a decade or less.

Still, I am only cautiously optimistic...employment growth in the Calgary area was much higher in the mid 2000's, and the economy was growing at 5% a year...I can't see how we can grow faster now with higher unemployment and slower economic growth! but maybe we are getting more international immigrants as the city's international profile has grown?

[Chadillaccc]

I'm not sure how it works either. Perhaps more families are moving here now, rather than single 20-somethings? I dunno Though, I know a lot of single 20-somethings who have moved here in the past 6 months.

[Surrealplaces]

1,195,00 is just a guess, but who knows

Originally Posted by Spring2008

1,195,000 city proper seems like a huge stretch but you never know with Calgary.

The Calgary Economic Region, our true metro IMO was at 1,470,000 last July so should be around 1,520,000 now. Could be at 2M in 10 years if things stay on track.

[Surrealplaces]

45K would be a lot for sure, but you just never know.

Originally Posted by DarthMalgus

I expect an impressive population growth this census, but honestly I will be surprised if we are much over 30,000. The boom of the mid-2000s was a time of crazy growth and we still surpassed 30,000 growth only one year. 45,000 would be a massive number...I just don't think it is possible.

[Chadillaccc]

Hoped it would be out today.

[Wooster]

Some interesting numbers on new community & established community growth (units and population) as well as single vs. multifamily.

[Surrealplaces]

Originally Posted by Wooster

Some interesting numbers on new community & established community growth (units and population) as well as single vs. multifamily.

Looking forward to seeing the numbers!

[Spring2008]

Have a friend in the know who hinted that the census results came in higher than expected, even for a boom year! Looking forward to seeing the final analysis/breakdown.