Where Is The Rust Belt?

[edale]

Originally Posted by dc_denizen

lol, we must have been the exception but growing up in ne Ohio we went go presque isle a lot, as a beach day trip

Generally vacation meant driving to the UP or Ontario though , I think that’s the typical Ohio plan. Rarely if ever went south

Interesting. Where in OH are you from? I know people in Toledo essentially view themselves as Michiganders, so they're definitely inclined to go up the MI lakes for vacations. Leland, MI seems to be a popular place up north for Cincinnatians. I know a few Clevelanders who eschew PIB in favor of Michigan. The Cumberland and Norris lake crowd seems to be a Cincy thing...can't imagine people too much north of there making the long drive down. It's a 4-5 hour drive to those places from Cincy, so it'd be like a 9-10 hour drive for Clevelanders. Way better options 8-9 hours away! In fact, you can reach beaches in the Carolinas in about that same amount of time from much of Ohio!

[Shawn]

Originally Posted by Crawford

I assume Bostonians are headed to Maine and New Hampshire, moreso than Vermont. Vermont resorts like Killington and Mt. Snow feel like Long Island North.

Yup, Sunday River and Sugarloaf are the top spots. Loon and Waterville Valley for NH, but Sunday River and Sugarloaf win. We get ads for Killington, Mount Snow, and Jay Peak in the Boston media market, but at least anecdotally, Maine is more popular than Vermont. Which I don't have a real explanation for, given that Killington is actually a shorter drive from Boston than Sunday River is.

[dc_denizen]

Originally Posted by edale

Interesting. Where in OH are you from? I know people in Toledo essentially view themselves as Michiganders, so they're definitely inclined to go up the MI lakes for vacations. Leland, MI seems to be a popular place up north for Cincinnatians. I know a few Clevelanders who eschew PIB in favor of Michigan. The Cumberland and Norris lake crowd seems to be a Cincy thing...can't imagine people too much north of there making the long drive down. It's a 4-5 hour drive to those places from Cincy, so it'd be like a 9-10 hour drive for Clevelanders. Way better options 8-9 hours away! In fact, you can reach beaches in the Carolinas in about that same amount of time from much of Ohio!

east of akron, it was a quick trip to erie...back then we didn't fly anywhere and vacation was about giant car trips and camping if you stayed in the midwest/went to canada. I don't think I ever even visited the shore of lake erie outside of a quick cleveland trip. but wen to ontario/UP/macinac/lake superior multiple times.

[dc_denizen]

Manufacturing employment Dec 1999 vs Dec 2019

State 12/1/1999 12/1/2019 delta delta
Utah 126.7 138.3 11.6 9%
Iowa 250.6 226.2 -24.4 -10%
Oregon 223.5 201.3 -22.2 -10%
Washington 335.1 299.5 -35.6 -11%
Nebraska 113.3 100.5 -12.8 -11%
Arizona 208.8 180 -28.8 -14%
Texas 1070.8 919.7 -151.1 -14%
Kansas 202 167.9 -34.1 -17%
Kentucky 311.7 257.9 -53.8 -17%
Colorado 186.9 150.9 -36 -19%
Minnesota 395 316.9 -78.1 -20%
Florida 480.9 384.3 -96.6 -20%
Indiana 672 536.4 -135.6 -20%
Wisconsin 598.6 472.1 -126.5 -21%
Louisiana 179.1 139.4 -39.7 -22%
Alabama 355.9 273 -82.9 -23%
South Carolina 337.3 256.4 -80.9 -24%
Georgia 550 410.2 -139.8 -25%
Missouri 372.9 277.1 -95.8 -26%
California 1835.7 1339.3 -496.4 -27%
Oklahoma 187 134.9 -52.1 -28%
Tennessee 502.8 359.3 -143.5 -29%
Michigan 890.9 630.5 -260.4 -29%
New Hampshire 101.3 69.8 -31.5 -31%
Arkansas 241.4 164.4 -77 -32%
Connecticut 237.6 161.3 -76.3 -32%
Ohio 1037.5 703.9 -333.6 -32%
Virginia 370 248.3 -121.7 -33%
Illinois 882.5 589.7 -292.8 -33%
Pennsylvania 868 566.9 -301.1 -35%
Mississippi 230.4 148.7 -81.7 -35%
Maryland 174.4 108.7 -65.7 -38%
North Carolina 770.1 473.8 -296.3 -38%
Massachusetts 401.9 242 -159.9 -40%
New Jersey 421.3 253.3 -168 -40%
New York 772.6 436.8 -335.8 -43%
USA 17494.2 12819.4 -4674.8 -27%

Ontario 1000.0 750.0 -250.0 -25%

[Shawn]

Originally Posted by dc_denizen

Does Pittsfield have any manufacturing industry left? At one point it was a huge GE center as I recall.

I was thinking of tourist towns (formerly industrial) like Pittsfield, not Springfield to compare to smaller rust belt towns

Some of Pittsfield's GE facilities are now owned and run by Saudi-giant SABIC, and their global Plastics and Advanced Materials division is here, but that's just 700 positions. The rest of the GE facilities are the worst Superfund site in Massachusetts. Chemex makes all their glassware here. General Dynamics builds their LTE and air traffic control systems here; they won a big government contract in 2018 for Cyber Command. But all these jobs don't add up to what GE used to employ at peak. On the other hand, Berkshire Community College is pushing 4000 students, and the Berkshire Medical Center is now a UMass teaching hospital, both of which weren't around during the peak GE days.

I understand what you were thinking, but keep in mind just how small Western Mass actually is. Pittsfield is a 45 minute straight shot down the Pike from Springfield. It's 40 miles from Pittsfield to Northampton and Amherst.

[Steely Dan]

Originally Posted by dc_denizen

growing up in ne Ohio we went go presque isle a lot, as a beach day trip

that makes sense.

after looking on google maps, the south shore of lake erie doesn't have a whole lot in the way of BIG sandy beaches.

presque isle really does seem to be the creme of the crop for the american side of lake erie, with what looks like ~8 miles of continuous sand beach.

the only other thing i could find that was close to that scale is the beach on cedar point that looks to stretch for about 4 miles.

[pj3000]

Originally Posted by edale

I've never heard of an Ohioan going to Erie, PA for a lake vacation for what it's worth.

Then it doesn't sound like you're from northeastern Ohio and/or are unaware of how regional geographic/economic connections in the area function. You may have never heard of Ohioans going there, but you are denying reason and reality if your mind is somehow made up that they don't. I have no idea of the numbers of people from Ohio going to Erie for a "lake vacation". But given the proximity from NE Ohio, I would think it's more likely they go there more for day/weekend trips to the beach... not full "lake vacations". While Erie is partially a "tourist town", it's still much more an old, beat up industrial city... kinda like how Buffalo wouldn't be a destination high on your list for a "lake vacation".

I mean, Ohio (and NY) license plates are very, very common in Erie all year 'round... people do cross state lines. Erie serves as a smaller regional hub for NW PA, SW NY, and NE OH. People from the tri-state area work, go to college, shop, etc. in Erie. Ohioans shop at a mall and chain stores there and probably half of the people in the crappy casino and horse track there are decked out in some sort of Ohio State or Browns gear. So why wouldn't they go there for the beach too?

When you consider that it takes less time to get to Presque Isle from some locations in NE Ohio than it does from places within Erie County (PA), then basic logic should tell you that Ohioans likely travel there, particularly when you take into account that it is their best closest beach option.

[pj3000]

Originally Posted by Shawn

Totally, and I didn’t mean to give the impression that Springfield is doing amazingly well. It’s not, especially relative to metro Boston all of two hours away. But it has two major advantages many other Rust Belt cities don’t: 1.) it’s in Massachusetts, a state which isn’t squeamish about budgeting state tax money to help cities and towns, and 2.) New England rust is older rust (textiles) and there’s been extra time to polish it off. We started tanking in the 40s and 50s as our textiles and furniture manufacturing left for the South, whereas heavy manufacturing left other parts of the Rust Belt in the 60s-80s. Your point about time needed is spot in.

Yeah, definitely hear you on the advantages of being in Massachusetts and the age factor. I also think that being in a smaller state (in population and area) also works to the benefit of the older industrial cities there (there's just fewer hands grabbing at the same pie and regional connections and economic outcomes of neighboring places are that much closer and consequential). It seems that Western Mass... Springfield area, Pittsfield... seems to be more rustbelt in the way that upstate/WNY and northern PA are than the way eastern/central Mass are/were though, based on types of manufacturing historically.

Originally Posted by dc_denizen

Erie by the way has wabtec (formerly ge) main locomotive manufacturing plant. In fact they just shut down a factory in Idaho to work to Erie

In our globalized world who knows how long this lasts but it’s amazing to me that this thread can discuss Erie in the context of presque isle tourism multiple times without bringing up the locomotive plant

Well, the topic we were discussing was tourism... I don't think too many people are visiting a GE plant that makes locomotives in their free time

Anyway, GE Transportation became a division of Wabtec (Westinghouse Air Brake Technologies) via a merger about a year ago. The GE Erie Works, as it was originally called, and the company town of Lawrence Park, were established in 1910 as the company's largest plant. It was among the first group of plants outside Schenectady, along with major plants in Pittsfield, MA and Ft. Wayne, IN. It then became more specialized as GE Rail and then GE Transportation, with all of the GE locomotives being built there. It was a huge employer, both directly and indirectly.

But of course employment dwindled over the decades and then in 2013: the corporate HQ relocated from Erie to Chicago, some production was moved overseas, and a new locomotive facility was built in Fort Worth (where labor costs were significantly lower). I'm not even sure what employment numbers/production in Erie are now... a tiny, tiny fraction of what it was at its 1940s-1950s peak, but growing up all I ever seemed to hear about was how GE was cutting 1,500 jobs... 500 jobs... 2,500 jobs... 1,000 jobs... 300 jobs... typical "slow bleed" corporate job cuts in rustbelt.

[eschaton]

Originally Posted by pj3000

But of course employment dwindled over the decades and then in 2013: the corporate HQ relocated from Erie to Chicago, some production was moved overseas, and a new locomotive facility was built in Fort Worth (where labor costs were significantly lower). I'm not even sure what employment numbers/production in Erie are now... a tiny, tiny fraction of what it was at its 1940s-1950s peak, but growing up all I ever seemed to hear about was how GE was cutting 1,500 jobs... 500 jobs... 2,500 jobs... 1,000 jobs... 300 jobs... typical "slow bleed" corporate job cuts in rustbelt.

There's about 1,400 production workers left in the plant - which makes it big by modern standards - still probably the biggest manufacturing plant left in Pennsylvania.

Still, it's less than half of where it was 15 years ago. Pretty stable. We're actually hearing rumors that work might be moved back from Ft. Worth.

[pj3000]

Originally Posted by Steely Dan

after looking on google maps, the south shore of lake erie doesn't have a whole lot in the way of BIG sandy beaches.

presque isle really does seem to be the creme of the crop for the american side of lake erie, with what looks like ~8 miles of continuous sand beach.

the only other thing i could find that was close to that scale is the beach on cedar point that looks to stretch for about 4 miles.

It's more like approx 10 miles of continuous beach on Presque Isle State Park proper. Beach stretches continuously to the PA/OH border and to the PA/NY border, but they become narrower and more rocky as you head west or east.

I don't think Cedar Point Beach is anywhere near that distance though. Most of the strip of sand along that stretch of road is privately owned and not accessible. I wanna say Cedar Point Beach is probably only a quarter of that 4 mile distance you cite (?). I haven't been there in awhile, and I remember the beach there being nice and wide (it's protected by a groin), but nowhere near that length. But I could be wrong.

[pj3000]

Originally Posted by eschaton

There's about 1,400 production workers left in the plant - which makes it big by modern standards - still probably the biggest manufacturing plant left in Pennsylvania.

Still, it's less than half of where it was 15 years ago. Pretty stable. We're actually hearing rumors that work might be moved back from Ft. Worth.

Well that would be good news for Erie and PA. I seem to remember a lot (most?) of the locomotive production there was for the foreign market... mainly China and India... so rail development in those countries directly affected production/employment in Erie and in any of the other US plants which contributed (I think the Grove City plant is where they assemble the engines).

They had employment just under 5,000 in 2014-15 before production was moved to Ft Worth. There was a GE history museum at the Erie plant which was pretty cool... had an exhibit about GE's role in the WWII production effort... nearly 50k workers were employed at the Erie plant for a couple years then.. that's insane to think of. My grandfather worked there for awhile in the 1960s-70s... prior to it becoming specialized on rail/transportation. I believe there were about 12,000 employees then.

[Steely Dan]

Originally Posted by pj3000

It's more like approx 10 miles of continuous beach on Presque Isle State Park proper.

from the beach campground in front of Waldameer out to the very tip of the peninsula, google maps says it's 7.8 miles of beach.

Originally Posted by pj3000

Beach stretches continuously to the PA/OH border and to the PA/NY border, but they become narrower and more rocky as you head west or east.

i think you and i have different ideas of what a "continuous sand beach" is.

from google maps, there are LOTS of stretches of lake erie shoreline in pennsylvania that do not look like continuous sand beach, at least not how i would define it.

Originally Posted by pj3000

I don't think Cedar Point Beach is anywhere near that distance though. Most of the strip of sand along that stretch of road is privately owned and not accessible. I wanna say Cedar Point Beach is probably only a quarter of that 4 mile distance you cite (?). I haven't been there in awhile, and I remember the beach there being nice and wide (it's protected by a groin), but nowhere near that length. But I could be wrong.

i was making no distinction in private vs. public, just that the total length of sand beach on cedar point stretches for about 4 miles. the part that is by the amusement park itself at the tip is ~1.25 miles in length, but it keeps going for miles in front of all those lake houses.

as far as the private/public thing goes, i know that in michigan, the public has access rights to walk along any stretch of lake michigan beach, regardless of whether the land is privately owned or not. now, it doesn't mean you can camp out for the day on privately owned beach, but you absolutely have the right to walk through. is that true of privately owned beaches in other great lakes states?

[eschaton]

Originally Posted by pj3000

Well that would be good news for Erie and PA. I seem to remember a lot (most?) of the locomotive production there was for the foreign market... mainly China and India... so rail development in those countries directly affected production/employment in Erie and in any of the other US plants which contributed (I think the Grove City plant is where they assemble the engines).

They had employment just under 5,000 in 2014-15 before production was moved to Ft Worth. There was a GE history museum at the Erie plant which was pretty cool... had an exhibit about GE's role in the WWII production effort... nearly 50k workers were employed at the Erie plant for a couple years then.. that's insane to think of. My grandfather worked there for awhile in the 1960s-70s... prior to it becoming specialized on rail/transportation. I believe there were about 12,000 employees then.

Full disclosure: I work for the union that represents the Erie workers.

Anyway, my general impression is although I can't describe Wabtec as being "nice" they're more willing to play ball with us than GE was. GE considered themselves in some sort of existential struggle with us, and was engaging in a process of systematically shutting down basically every high-wage unionized shop in the country and replacing it with a low-wage shop in the south. Wabtec seems more willing to let us live to see another day as long as they're getting the margins they want out of the place.

There's significantly more than 1,400 in the plant once you consider the white-collar workforce, draftsmen, managers, plant guards, etc, though I can't give you the exact numbers. Several hundred more though to be sure.

[pj3000]

Originally Posted by Steely Dan

from the beach campground in front of Waldameer out to the very tip of the peninsula, google maps says it's 7.8 miles of beach.

Sorry, my bad, you're right. I think the State Park generally references 7-8 miles of beach. I was mistakenly including some of the other public beach areas not on the actual peninsula in the 10 mi number.

Originally Posted by Steely Dan

i think you and i have different ideas of what a "continuous sand beach" is.

from google maps, there are LOTS of stretches of lake erie shoreline in pennsylvania that do not look like continuous sand beach, at least not how i would define it.

It is continuous sand for the entire stretch of Pennsylvania shoreline. I kayaked along the shore from Conneaut Township Park, OH to Lakeside Campground, NY on a 2-day, 38 mile trip (it was fun, btw). Though the beach is very narrow in some places with lots of rocks and steep 50-100 clay bluffs rising up, but there is a beach the entire way. This was a couple years ago now, and Lake Erie levels are at record highs right now, so some of those very narrow sections are likely underwater currently.

Originally Posted by Steely Dan

i was making no distinction in private vs. public, just that the total length of sand beach on cedar point stretches for about 4 miles. the part that is by the amusement park itself at the tip is ~1.25 miles in length, but it keeps going for miles in front of all those lake houses.

as far as the private/public thing goes, i know that in michigan, the public has access rights to walk along any stretch of lake michigan beach, regardless of whether the land is privately owned or not. now, it doesn't mean you can camp out for the day on privately owned beach, but you absolutely have the right to walk through. is that true of privately owned beaches in other great lakes states?

Yeah, in PA you're permitted to walk right along the "low water line" for the entire 36.8 miles of PA shoreline. There's always some contention every year between some private landowner who attempts to block access with some type of jetty or large concrete blocks.

[pj3000]

Originally Posted by eschaton

Full disclosure: I work for the union that represents the Erie workers.

Anyway, my general impression is although I can't describe Wabtec as being "nice" they're more willing to play ball with us than GE was. GE considered themselves in some sort of existential struggle with us, and was engaging in a process of systematically shutting down basically every high-wage unionized shop in the country and replacing it with a low-wage shop in the south. Wabtec seems more willing to let us live to see another day as long as they're getting the margins they want out of the place.

There's significantly more than 1,400 in the plant once you consider the white-collar workforce, draftsmen, managers, plant guards, etc, though I can't give you the exact numbers. Several hundred more though to be sure.

Well that's encouraging. It seemed for a while that it was only a matter of time before GE just ended talks with the union and up and shuttered the place. So it's good to hear that Wabtec is at least more willing to negotiate/concede, and sounds like it is actually interested in growing the business, whereas GE seemed/seems to want to rebrand itself as a "tech" company.

[iheartthed]

Originally Posted by iheartthed

I thought this was referring to an urban location but upon closer look I see that it is in a mall, so I take back when I said.

Macy's just announced that they are moving the HQ from Cincinnati to NYC:

https://www.bizjournals.com/cincinna...ill-close.html

[Steely Dan]

^ bad news for Cincy, but i suspect this is a smart move by Macy's.

If anything can save the brand, plugging the HQ back into the leading style/fashion center of the nation is probably high on the list.

No diss to Cincy there, but NYC is freaking NYC.

[JManc]

Macy's started in NYC, still have that huge store on 34th Ave. Seems natural for them to be HQ'ed back there.

[dc_denizen]

Against the trend of many financial shops and amazon locating in smaller cheaper cities

[Crawford]

Macys was already HQ in NYC. They've had senior management in Manhattan for decades, even in the Federated days.

They kept the "official" HQ in Cincy because of legacy/civic reasons, but I guess they're dropping the pretense.