Queen's Park Politics

[1overcosc]

Liberals have introduced a bill to adopt the new federal riding boundaries for Southern Ontario for provincial elections, while retaining the province's custom ridings for the North.

There will thus be 122 ridings--11 Northern and 111 Southern. Up from the current 107--11 northern and 96 southern.

The fixed election date law will be amended to move elections to late spring instead of fall, to avoid potential conflicts with federal & municipal elections which are set for the fall (in particular, the 2018 municipal elections would have overlapped with the 2018 provincial election under the current rules).

[eternallyme]

Regarding the northern ridings, even if the number was maintained, the boundaries could probably use adjusting since some areas in Northern Ontario have lost population at a very high rate. At the same time, some ridings that actually gained population are nearly as large as the smaller southern ridings. Alternatively, to bring populations closer, the eight federal seats entirely in the highway corridor areas should be used, while Timmins-James Bay and Kenora (which are the two largest ridings and have large First Nations populations) could be reshuffled into three ridings.

[1overcosc]

Originally Posted by eternallyme

Regarding the northern ridings, even if the number was maintained, the boundaries could probably use adjusting since some areas in Northern Ontario have lost population at a very high rate. At the same time, some ridings that actually gained population are nearly as large as the smaller southern ridings. Alternatively, to bring populations closer, the eight federal seats entirely in the highway corridor areas should be used, while Timmins-James Bay and Kenora (which are the two largest ridings and have large First Nations populations) could be reshuffled into three ridings.

The Northern ridings are the 1996 federal boundaries, so I'd imagine they'd be very out of date.

I hope Northern MPPs including ones in the Liberal caucus bring up the issue and hopefully we'll get a commission to draw Northern ridings. I like your idea of directly adopting all federal ridings except Timmins-James Bay and Kenora, that's the easiest to do.. means there's only 3 ridings the province has to come up with boundaries for.

I think it's quite honourable and respectable of Wynne to keep that extra Northern seat given that said seat is probably another NDP seat and not one of her own.

[1overcosc]

I haven't see data, but the newspapers are saying that polls show a majority of the public against the Hydro One sale. As I expected.

I believe that's the first major single issue on which Wynne is against majority opinion (alcohol reforms, sex ed, cap and trade, transit investment--on all, majority support Liberal position). Other than possibly the pension plan idea, on which I have seen no polls. Given that polls show the majority of Canadians as a whole are in favour of expanding the CPP, my gut feeling is that the majority of Ontarians support the pension plan idea as well.

[eternallyme]

Originally Posted by 1overcosc

The Northern ridings are the 1996 federal boundaries, so I'd imagine they'd be very out of date.

I hope Northern MPPs including ones in the Liberal caucus bring up the issue and hopefully we'll get a commission to draw Northern ridings. I like your idea of directly adopting all federal ridings except Timmins-James Bay and Kenora, that's the easiest to do.. means there's only 3 ridings the province has to come up with boundaries for.

I think it's quite honourable and respectable of Wynne to keep that extra Northern seat given that said seat is probably another NDP seat and not one of her own.

Federally, there aren't that many changes in the northern ridings between the 2004 and 2014 boundaries. Most are tweaking between ridings that have gained population and ridings that have lost major population (particularly the lumber towns).

Timiskaming-Cochrane, the extra seat that would be lost, is a safe NDP seat.

That said, since both Kenora-Rainy River (which would be downsized) and Timmins-James Bay are also solidly NDP provincially, the third extra seat - likely containing all the far northern First Nations communities - would likely be NDP as well. You would then have eight Northern ridings with about 80,000 to 95,000 people in each (close in size to the rural southern ridings, which are increasingly similar in demographics) and three ridings of about 50,000 people in each.

[vid]

Originally Posted by 1overcosc

Liberals have introduced a bill to adopt the new federal riding boundaries for Southern Ontario for provincial elections, while retaining the province's custom ridings for the North.

There will thus be 122 ridings--11 Northern and 111 Southern. Up from the current 107--11 northern and 96 southern.

The fixed election date law will be amended to move elections to late spring instead of fall, to avoid potential conflicts with federal & municipal elections which are set for the fall (in particular, the 2018 municipal elections would have overlapped with the 2018 provincial election under the current rules).

They're not custom, they're from the Federal 1996 representation order, based on the 1991 census.

They might as well just give each district its own MPP and be done with it at this point.

Originally Posted by eternallyme

Federally, there aren't that many changes in the northern ridings between the 2004 and 2014 boundaries. Most are tweaking between ridings that have gained population and ridings that have lost major population (particularly the lumber towns).

White River seems to shuffle between Algoma and Thunder Bay every time they change boundaries.

[1overcosc]

Riding specific polls conducted for both federal & provincial politics in Kingston and Guelph.

http://ontarionewswatch.com/onw-news.html?id=914

In both cities, the Ontario NDP are in first place. This is huge as they are among the safest seats in the entire province for the OLP.

Kingston in particular is telling. This city's politics is largely made up of the exact demographic (moderate leftists, aka the "activist centre" type) that is the base of Wynne's success.

The Hydro issue appears to have alienated a lot of this group; 81% of Kingstonians are opposed to the sale, according to the poll. Although with numbers THAT high, I highly suspect this was exaggerated by a choice of wording--which would not be surprising considering the poll was paid for by CUPE. That said, I don't think CUPE's involvement would skew the actual political party support results as the actual surveying was done by Environics and question manipulation is not really possible with political parties.

I think Wynne is betting that by 2018 these progressives will forgive her. I'm not so sure.

A few pages back I predicted that with the PCs seemingly unable to moderate and win urban votes, they can't win government, and that it would be the NDP that would eventually topple the Liberals. I predicted this happening in the 2022 election, after Wynne retires in 2021 at age 68 after winning a second majority in 2018, because I thought Wynne would be popular enough among progressives to keep the Liberals in power so long as she's around.

If Wynne doesn't keep that progressive base, we may see that NDP win come in 2018 instead.

Perhaps Wynne will cancel the sale? She's built an image of being tough and following through with what she does, so an outright cancellation would be bad for her image; but perhaps she could save face by pledging to put the sale on hold and subject it to a referendum held concurrently with the 2018 election.

That $4B for transit is going to have to come from somewhere though... I have yet to hear a single one of the "keep hydro public" activist groups propose an alternative funding source.

[eternallyme]

Originally Posted by 1overcosc

Riding specific polls conducted for both federal & provincial politics in Kingston and Guelph.

http://ontarionewswatch.com/onw-news.html?id=914

In both cities, the Ontario NDP are in first place. This is huge as they are among the safest seats in the entire province for the OLP.

Kingston in particular is telling. This city's politics is largely made up of the exact demographic (moderate leftists, aka the "activist centre" type) that is the base of Wynne's success.

The Hydro issue appears to have alienated a lot of this group; 81% of Kingstonians are opposed to the sale, according to the poll. Although with numbers THAT high, I highly suspect this was exaggerated by a choice of wording--which would not be surprising considering the poll was paid for by CUPE. That said, I don't think CUPE's involvement would skew the actual political party support results as the actual surveying was done by Environics and question manipulation is not really possible with political parties.

I think Wynne is betting that by 2018 these progressives will forgive her. I'm not so sure.

A few pages back I predicted that with the PCs seemingly unable to moderate and win urban votes, they can't win government, and that it would be the NDP that would eventually topple the Liberals. I predicted this happening in the 2022 election, after Wynne retires in 2021 at age 68 after winning a second majority in 2018, because I thought Wynne would be popular enough among progressives to keep the Liberals in power so long as she's around.

If Wynne doesn't keep that progressive base, we may see that NDP win come in 2018 instead.

Perhaps Wynne will cancel the sale? She's built an image of being tough and following through with what she does, so an outright cancellation would be bad for her image; but perhaps she could save face by pledging to put the sale on hold and subject it to a referendum held concurrently with the 2018 election.

That $4B for transit is going to have to come from somewhere though... I have yet to hear a single one of the "keep hydro public" activist groups propose an alternative funding source.

Those groups are all calling for higher taxes, especially on corporations. Realistically, that would be impossible without job losses.

The PC's are in a dangerous position themselves, since to win urban seats they have to risk the rural base (and that has bitten them in the foot in Alberta) given that their positions are so far apart on many issues. I wonder if Garfield Dunlop was pushed out fearing a revolt ahead of 2018, although his riding isn't as conservative as Parry Sound-Muskoka or Haliburton-Kawartha Lakes-Brock. It is the ridings 2 to 5 hours from Toronto (except for the urban or mostly-urban ridings) that are the ones most dangerous for them, where they could run into trouble with a potential right-of-the-PC option.

[1overcosc]

Originally Posted by eternallyme

Those groups are all calling for higher taxes, especially on corporations. Realistically, that would be impossible without job losses.

Sounds about right for groups like CUPE and such.

I understand Wynne's logic for not doing any corporate tax hikes as part of the funding scheme; with the ORPP about to increase payroll taxes, she wants to avoid any other hits to them. (Try telling that to CUPE or OPSEU, lol).

Out of curiosity, do you know where the typical PC voter stands on the Hydro One sell off issue? The PC Party promoted Hydro One privatization in the past (they attempted to do in the early 2000s, and Hudak brought it up a couple times), so it seems like the sort of thing many in the party would actually be happy about. Ideologically speaking, it's the sort of thing that you'd expect to please the right and piss off the left.

Originally Posted by eternallyme

The PC's are in a dangerous position themselves, since to win urban seats they have to risk the rural base (and that has bitten them in the foot in Alberta) given that their positions are so far apart on many issues. I wonder if Garfield Dunlop was pushed out fearing a revolt ahead of 2018, although his riding isn't as conservative as Parry Sound-Muskoka or Haliburton-Kawartha Lakes-Brock. It is the ridings 2 to 5 hours from Toronto (except for the urban or mostly-urban ridings) that are the ones most dangerous for them, where they could run into trouble with a potential right-of-the-PC option.

The other day I found out that some rural PCs, dissatisfied with the PC Party back in the John Tory days, founded the Ontario Reform Party intended to be a right-of-PC party. They got some attention in the press and apparently there were some rumours of Randy Hillier crossing the floor to it; but that all kinda died, probably when Tory resigned, although the Reform Party still exists.

A similar thing on the other side of the spectrum happened with the NDP; apparently some hard-left folks in the NDP split off a couple years ago to form the Socialist Party of Ontario; however that was much lower profile and nobody really talked about it.

If the MMP reform had passed in 2007, those two splinter parties could very well have grown and we could have had a 6 party system by now if you factor in the Greens.

[eternallyme]

Originally Posted by 1overcosc

Sounds about right for groups like CUPE and such.

I understand Wynne's logic for not doing any corporate tax hikes as part of the funding scheme; with the ORPP about to increase payroll taxes, she wants to avoid any other hits to them. (Try telling that to CUPE or OPSEU, lol).

Out of curiosity, do you know where the typical PC voter stands on the Hydro One sell off issue? The PC Party promoted Hydro One privatization in the past (they attempted to do in the early 2000s, and Hudak brought it up a couple times), so it seems like the sort of thing many in the party would actually be happy about. Ideologically speaking, it's the sort of thing that you'd expect to please the right and piss off the left.



The other day I found out that some rural PCs, dissatisfied with the PC Party back in the John Tory days, founded the Ontario Reform Party intended to be a right-of-PC party. They got some attention in the press and apparently there were some rumours of Randy Hillier crossing the floor to it; but that all kinda died, probably when Tory resigned, although the Reform Party still exists.

A similar thing on the other side of the spectrum happened with the NDP; apparently some hard-left folks in the NDP split off a couple years ago to form the Socialist Party of Ontario; however that was much lower profile and nobody really talked about it.

If the MMP reform had passed in 2007, those two splinter parties could very well have grown and we could have had a 6 party system by now if you factor in the Greens.

Most of the typical PC voters seem to oppose it, mainly on the thinking it would lead to higher costs due to more green energy plans and bureaucracy. However, there is likely a split in the party...the business/traditional affluent wing (where the Liberals also fight for and tends to be more socially liberal) is likely in support, while the base is at least in opposition to the current setup. They just want lower rates.

The NDP is also split in terms of viewpoint, their lower-class supporters are more of the type that just want lower rates and fear that the selloff would mean higher rates, while their union/activist base wants government control of everything.

[1overcosc]

New polling data on the proposed Ontario Pension Plan.

The plan has more support than opposition but it's close. 45% approve of the plan, 40% disapprove, and 15% are unsure/no opinion. These numbers are relatively constant among age groups (which is surprising--as it's mainly youth that will benefit, you'd think support would be higher among the young).

The numbers are also fairly consistent regionally (also surprising), with one exception: it is a lot more popular than unpopular in the City of Toronto proper, where it has 52% support and 32% opposition. It is supported by a majority of Ontario Liberal supporters (72% to 15%), a majority of Ontario NDP supporters (53% to 33%) and opposed to by a majority of PC supporters (22% to 68%).

By workforce segment, public sector workers are most in favour (interesting as they are exempt from it and thus get no benefit nor any deductions). Small business owners are more likely to oppose (but 39% still approve).

They also asked voters two interesting side questions:

1) How does Stephen Harper's refusal to let the province contract the CRA for administration affect federal vote intention?
-40% of voters said they are less likely to vote Conservative as a result, 28% more likely, and 27% said it doesn't affect their intention.

2) Do people agree with the conservative criticism of the ORPP as 'just a payroll tax'?
-Only 17% of Ontarians agreed with the description of the ORPP as a 'payroll tax'. 22% thought of it as a "personal savings plan", 27% as "retirement insurance", 14% as something else, and 21% didn't know what to describe it as.


http://poll.forumresearch.com/data/O...20Research.pdf

[Loco101]

I work in the federal public service in CPP and OAS for Ontario. I am not at all surprised by the results of that Forum survey.

One of the most frequent complaints I get from clients is that they wished the government had made them pay more into CPP so that they could received higher payments in retirement. The current CPP does not make for a comfortable lifestyle on its own. I applaud Wynne and the ON Liberals for the creation of the ORPP and am disgusted at how Harper is playing games with Ontarians. What is so bad about having a better savings plan for contributors? My opinion...

[1overcosc]

Originally Posted by Loco101

I work in the federal public service in CPP and OAS for Ontario. I am not at all surprised by the results of that Forum survey.

One of the most frequent complaints I get from clients is that they wished the government had made them pay more into CPP so that they could received higher payments in retirement. The current CPP does not make for a comfortable lifestyle on its own. I applaud Wynne and the ON Liberals for the creation of the ORPP and am disgusted at how Harper is playing games with Ontarians. What is so bad about having a better savings plan for contributors? My opinion...

Agree completely. My only concern with the ORPP is the impact on employers; I'm not so sure how small businesses--the main driver of employment growth in the province--will cope.

I think its introduction should be complemented with a reduction in the small business tax rate. However, if the federal NDP win the upcoming election, the federal small business tax will be reduced as per Mulcair's promise, so win-win

[1overcosc]

Byelection called in Whitby-Oshawa for February 11.

Whitby-Oshawa is a safe Tory seat that has survived the PC wipeouts in the GTA of recent years.

This one is interesting because it's not so much the victory that matters. For the PCs to prove that they are truly in ascendancy and poised to win the next election, they need to win this one by a big margin. If they hold it but the Liberals are not far behind, it's an ominous sign for them, as it means they have trouble holding the limited seat base they already have.

If the Liberals pick it up--which I think is very unlikely but the media seems to think otherwise--it's a very bad sign for the PCs as it indicates the Liberals are in a position to make gains on their 2014 showing even with the Wynne government arguably facing the worst of its mid-term blues right now.

[Loco101]

Originally Posted by 1overcosc

Byelection called in Whitby-Oshawa for February 11.

Whitby-Oshawa is a safe Tory seat that has survived the PC wipeouts in the GTA of recent years.

This one is interesting because it's not so much the victory that matters. For the PCs to prove that they are truly in ascendancy and poised to win the next election, they need to win this one by a big margin. If they hold it but the Liberals are not far behind, it's an ominous sign for them, as it means they have trouble holding the limited seat base they already have.

If the Liberals pick it up--which I think is very unlikely but the media seems to think otherwise--it's a very bad sign for the PCs as it indicates the Liberals are in a position to make gains on their 2014 showing even with the Wynne government arguably facing the worst of its mid-term blues right now.

I don't know anything about the candidates but here is what I feel:

I wouldn't call Whitby-Oshawa a safe seat for the PCs. The ON PC Party has alienated a lot of their past voters in the GTA. It will really come down to how the NDP does as well. Many who voted NDP in 2014 may vote Liberal to preventing a PC victory. But what are the main issues in Whitby-Oshawa?

Also, the departure of Christine Elliott is really bad for the PCs. The party keeps losing its moderate MPPs and is left with the more extreme types. This does not fare well in the GTA.

[eternallyme]

Originally Posted by Loco101

I don't know anything about the candidates but here is what I feel:

I wouldn't call Whitby-Oshawa a safe seat for the PCs. The ON PC Party has alienated a lot of their past voters in the GTA. It will really come down to how the NDP does as well. Many who voted NDP in 2014 may vote Liberal to preventing a PC victory. But what are the main issues in Whitby-Oshawa?

Also, the departure of Christine Elliott is really bad for the PCs. The party keeps losing its moderate MPPs and is left with the more extreme types. This does not fare well in the GTA.

I agree it was a win for Elliott and not the party. The NDP have virtually collapsed in most of Ontario outside of the north and industrial towns and especially in the GTA, so they are a non-factor. That said, it is probably the lowest hanging fruit for the Liberals, except for some of the NDP-held GTA seats. There are at least 35-40 ridings that are simply out of reach for them right away (basically, anything they don't have either federally or provincially).

That said, a loss would pretty much eradicate the PC's from the GTA, and likely require a major rethink in strategy - which in itself is a big risk, since the rural ridings fear that Brown is moving the party too close to the centre. Adding a Reform-type party on the ballot would ensure mammoth Liberal majorities in perpetuity...

[1overcosc]

PCs have won the Whitby-Oshawa by-election, as I expected.

Some interesting dynamics here.

The PC candidate won by a healthy margin which is a positive sign for the PC Party's renewal, it means they can hold their existing set of seats reasonably well.

Also, considering how much media attention this by election got, voter turnout was VERY low, even by by-election standards... only 27%.

This probably says an overall dissatisfaction with all the options, which is a not really a good sign for either party.

For the PC Party, it is a huge relief that they can at least hold the few urban seats they have, but it's concerning for them that they did so with a turnout so low. If the PCs really had set themselves up as the "government in waiting"--like what the Liberals successfully did during Harris' second term--the riding would have been a solid PC win with a sizeable turnout.

[eternallyme]

Many pundits are saying the writing is on the wall for the Liberals. There are big warning signs for all parties IMO.

For the Liberals:

* They do have a built-in extra cushion of 15 seats from the new boundaries, as most likely they would have all gone Liberal in the last provincial election if they were in effect.

* They have little room to grow beyond that, however. Rural Ontario is a dead zone for them, and pretty much all of SW Ontario is as well (i.e. beyond Waterloo Region). Unless the opposition collapses, they will likely finish 3rd in most ridings in those areas. There are maybe 5 or 6 reasonable pickups from the opposition, if that, pretty much all in the Golden Horseshoe region.

* That said, with the new boundaries, they don't need to do anything outside the big cities and the GTA. But it would create a lot more resentment and anger elsewhere...

For the PC's:

* They gain nothing from the new boundaries. So what they see is what they have.

* They face challenges on two fronts and a regional quagmire. There is no way they can form any kind of government - or even hold the Liberals to a minority - without making significant inroads in the GTA. That means dealing with demographics which are completely different than what they are used to, including more liberal voters and minorities.

* They have another danger. Demographically and politically, most of rural Ontario is a very different place. If they are seen as too liberal or too interested in the urban agenda, they run the risk of challenges from the right - either infighting or a new party. Vote splitting on the right would ensure Liberal governments for eternity.

For the NDP:

* They have been devastated recently in urban areas especially in Ontario. They can probably expect to lose at least a handful of seats (the remaining Toronto seats) to the Liberals right away.

* Their industrial bases should be more secure, but if those falter, I'd think both of the other parties would benefit about equally.

* There is a great difference between urban hipsters (traditional Liberal-NDP swing voters) and rust belt, blue-collar union members (traditional NDP members) in terms of agenda and policy. It may not be a gap that can be bridged easily, if at all...

[1overcosc]

I think the biggest variable at stake is what happens with the NDP. Both federally and provincially, the NDP aren't really in a good place right now. With both the Ontario and the federal Liberals having moved leftward, the NDP face ideological "crowding out", making it much harder for the NDP to hold any voters beyond the traditional base. If the NDP collapses further, the Liberals could hold onto another majority even if they bleed a good chunk of their support to the PCs. Conversely, the Liberals could fall to third place if the NDP manage to claim votes on the Liberals left flank. Pushing the Hydro One sale (the main area where progressives are at odd with the Wynne government) is probably the best way for the NDP to achieve this.

On top of that, in Ontario, there's a lot of progressives that fear the PC Party. Regardless of political stripe or opinion on the Wynne government, most progressives are very supportive of some key Wynne policies like cap-and-trade, infrastructure expansion, and the ORPP. If the PCs propose eliminating or scaling back any of these three things, a lot of voters, both NDP supporters and more centrist PC supporters will hold their nose and vote Liberal; much like what happened in 2014 with the 100,000 layoffs disaster. If Brown can drop his opposition to cap-and-trade and the ORPP and pledge to maintain status quo without harming his opinion among the base, he's got a good shot at winning. For cap-and-trade one way he could do this would be to acknowledge that once implemented, abolishing will be very difficult due to the risk of corporate lawsuits (by 2018, companies will have invested in the carbon credits).

[HillStreetBlues]

As much as I would personally like to see the current provincial government fall, I think it's pretty unlikely either of the other two parties can defeat them with their current leaders. Horwath is a very competent campaigner and I think a good politician, but isn't going to seem very fresh after almost a decade as leader of the third party. And Brown was the wrong choice of leader for the Tories: the Liberals can make hay out of comments of his on social issues, and take those moderates who might have voted against the Liberals on their profligate spending (which I think is potentially a huge number of voters for the Tories under the right leadership).

I think the most likely result, barring something really big, is that the Liberals do even better than 2014 at the expense of the NDP everywhere but their traditional strongholds, and the Tories being relegated again to rural Ontario.