PHILADELPHIA | Lowrise/General Developments Thread - Page 374

Milksteak · #**7461** Posted **Feb 22, 2017, 4:23 PM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by Flyers2001

Do you live in the Northeast?

I do not, so I can't comment on experience. I'm a former city dweller turned inner ring suburbanite, but I'm always curious to see the city trends.

1487 · #**7462** Posted **Feb 22, 2017, 4:23 PM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by Flyers2001

I have very little hope of these changes happening. As other area's of the city continue to gentrify, I see the Northeast and many sections of the far Northeast heading in the opposite direction.

the far northeast has larger, pricier houses and less apts. I don't see it being ripe for decline. No more so than Roxborough or West Mt. Airy.

McBane · #**7463** Posted **Feb 22, 2017, 4:27 PM**

NoLibs definitely has some of the most interesting architecture in the city.

1487 · #**7464** Posted **Feb 22, 2017, 4:27 PM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by Flyers2001

Yes

https://www.phillypolice.com/crime-maps-stats/

Feel free to look at the statistics over the past 7 years or so. The overall Northeast has had more crime. Now if you want to break it down per neighborhood be my guess. I have lived in several and see the day to day decline.

Feel free to join one of the many Northeast Social pages as well that speak about many of the neighborhood issues.

Do you live in the Northeast?

There are issues all over the city. I don't believe in the mythology that the NE was immune from all social ills until a few years back. I think that issues are more attention grabbing when the demographics of certain areas change. And sorry, neighborhood forums frequented by people who are only going to be negative (stats or no stats) based on their anger about changes in demographics aren't a scientific way of gauging whether or not crime and other issues are rampant in any area.

Knight Hospitaller · #**7465** Posted **Feb 22, 2017, 4:29 PM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by McBane

NoLibs definitely has some of the most interesting architecture in the city.

Not exactly the student rental schlock I see being built in W. Philly on my way in and out of town.

Bariscos · #**7466** Posted **Feb 22, 2017, 4:43 PM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by McBane

NoLibs definitely has some of the most interesting architecture in the city.

I was just saying this to my husband last night. I love walking around NoLibs and seeing the new-age rowhomes that they are building. Many of them don't even face out to the street, instead facing in towards each other with parking as the first floor.

I lived in Seattle for 7 years (though I was born in Philly and raised in the burbs). There were two big disappointments living in Seattle architecturally. First, they don't have too many buildings that are spectacles, other than the Space Needle, the library downtown, and a few more. There are no buildings with beautiful pillars, entrances, statues, etc. The other is that there are practically no homes in the heart of the city, only apartment buildings. But one thing that I do miss from the city is how new age all of the architecture is. Sometimes, I felt like I was living among the Jetsons.

NoLibs definitely has some newer buildings with really interesting modern architecture, which reminds me of Seattle. Except I love that there are often still nods to Philadelphia's history with some brick incorporated into these structures (often in black here...never any brick in Seattle).

jsbrook · #**7467** Posted **Feb 22, 2017, 5:27 PM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by 1487

the far northeast has larger, pricier houses and less apts. I don't see it being ripe for decline. No more so than Roxborough or West Mt. Airy.

It already is. I have worked with Habitat Humanity in that area. There are lots of senior citizens in that area with once nice homes in significant disrepair. We have helped them with repairs they can't do themselves and would struggle to afford. But it's just a fraction of the population. And volunteer organizations can only do so much even for those we help.

Absent some developers swooping in - which I don't see in a neighborhood so far from Center City - their children are going to sell their houses for much less when they pass to people who probably won't maintain them well either. There is not the same kind of demand for a car-centric, suburbanesque lifestyle among upwardly mobile people that initially made the Northeast pretty nice. Today, those people will live in the suburbs. People who want a more urban environment choose other neighborhoods.

These kinds of changes in social mores, values, and generations dying off has the same impact other places. My grandmother (98 years old) just moved to assisted living from the Greenhill Condominums at 1001 City Line Avenue, just on the suburban side of City Line (Wynnewood). Just put the condo up for sale. Condos in that building are all selling for roughly half what she paid 7 years ago when she moved back here from Florida. No one really wants to live there.

The people that are moving in may be nice people and will hopefully maintain the places, but they are struggling to make ends meet financially and are moving there to get their kids into suburban schools. They are able to get the condos at low prices because no one else wants them. The same kind of thing in happening in the Northeast. The older generation is dying off, and there's not much demand to live there. So, the prices of houses turn over are dropping and will drop more in years to come. Even with the best of intentions, many of the people moving in won't be able to afford to keep already deteriorating properties in good repair. Over time, I see a gradual but progressive deterioration of that neighborhood. The new Sharswood. Whereas Sharswood itself is going to improve with new development and community initiatives.

Mount Airy is a foil, yes, but I'm not sure how many Mount Airy's the city can sustain or what draw the Northeast has to make it another one. For whatever reason, there is a demand to live in Mount Airy that I'm not seeing as to the Northeast.

1487 · #**7468** Posted **Feb 22, 2017, 6:05 PM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by Bariscos

I was just saying this to my husband last night. I love walking around NoLibs and seeing the new-age rowhomes that they are building. Many of them don't even face out to the street, instead facing in towards each other with parking as the first floor.

I lived in Seattle for 7 years (though I was born in Philly and raised in the burbs). There were two big disappointments living in Seattle architecturally. First, they don't have too many buildings that are spectacles, other than the Space Needle, the library downtown, and a few more. There are no buildings with beautiful pillars, entrances, statues, etc. The other is that there are practically no homes in the heart of the city, only apartment buildings. But one thing that I do miss from the city is how new age all of the architecture is. Sometimes, I felt like I was living among the Jetsons.

NoLibs definitely has some newer buildings with really interesting modern architecture, which reminds me of Seattle. Except I love that there are often still nods to Philadelphia's history with some brick incorporated into these structures (often in black here...never any brick in Seattle).

well I think many feel the the fact Philly has so many older homes (many of which are considered pretty nice architecturally) is a plus over many competing cities. There aren't a ton of US cities with so much older housing stock featuring materials and design elements that are not duplicated in modern construction. The range of architecture here is probably close to unparalleled in American cities- especially when you look at how much modern single family housing we now have. That is something you won't see a lot of in cities like NYC or DC where vacancy levels were never as severe as Philly and thus buildable lots are much less common.

Milksteak · #**7469** Posted **Feb 22, 2017, 6:07 PM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by jsbrook

It already is. I have worked with Habitat Humanity in that area. There are lots of senior citizens in that area with once nice homes in significant disrepair. We have helped them with repairs they can't do themselves and would struggle to afford. But it's just a fraction of the population. And volunteer organizations can only do so much even for those we help.

Absent some developers swooping in - which I don't see in a neighborhood so far from Center City - their children are going to sell their houses for much less when they pass to people who probably won't maintain them well either. There is not the same kind of demand for a car-centric, suburbanesque lifestyle among upwardly mobile people that initially made the Northeast pretty nice. Today, those people will live in the suburbs. People who want a more urban environment choose other neighborhoods.

These kinds of changes in social mores, values, and generations dying off has the same impact other places. My grandmother (98 years old) just moved to assisted living from the Greenhill Condominums at 1001 City Line Avenue, just on the suburban side of City Line (Wynnewood). Just put the condo up for sale. Condos in that building are all selling for roughly half what she paid 7 years ago when she moved back here from Florida. No one really wants to live there.

The people that are moving in may be nice people and will hopefully maintain the places, but they are struggling to make ends meet financially and are moving there to get their kids into suburban schools. They are able to get the condos at low prices because no one else wants them. The same kind of thing in happening in the Northeast. The older generation is dying off, and there's not much demand to live there. So, the prices of houses turn over are dropping and will drop more in years to come. Even with the best of intentions, many of the people moving in won't be able to afford to keep already deteriorating properties in good repair. Over time, I see a gradual but progressive deterioration of that neighborhood. The new Sharswood. Whereas Sharswood itself is going to improve with new development and community initiatives.

Mount Airy is a foil, yes, but I'm not sure how many Mount Airy's the city can sustain or what draw the Northeast has to make it another one. For whatever reason, there is a demand to live in Mount Airy that I'm not seeing as to the Northeast.

Ok, but that brings us back to the original post that started this whole thing off...Northeast neighborhoods are now considering the walkability of the area. People don't necessarily want the full city experience, but being able to do their grocery shopping by foot along with a couple of decent dining options that they can walk to while still having a yard will change the game. Mount Airy is an excellent demonstration of this, as are your small towns like Ambler, New Hope, Doylestown, Newtown, etc. If anything, I think that the isolated exurbs are in the most trouble...today's 30 year old doesn't want a McMansion in the sticks, they want a community (this is a broad sweeping generalization, but you get my point). I know plenty of people that want nothing to do with the city, but still want to be able to have a life outside of their small piece of the "American Dream".

1487 · #**7470** Posted **Feb 22, 2017, 6:12 PM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by jsbrook

It already is. I have worked with Habitat Humanity in that area. There are lots of senior citizens in that area with once nice homes in significant disrepair. We have helped them with repairs they can't do themselves and would struggle to afford. But it's just a fraction of the population. And volunteer organizations can only do so much even for those we help.

Absent some developers swooping in - which I don't see in a neighborhood so far from Center City - their children are going to sell their houses for much less when they pass to people who probably won't maintain them well either. There is not the same kind of demand for a car-centric, suburbanesque lifestyle among upwardly mobile people that initially made the Northeast pretty nice. Today, those people will live in the suburbs. People who want a more urban environment choose other neighborhoods.

These kinds of changes in social mores, values, and generations dying off has the same impact other places. My grandmother (98 years old) just moved to assisted living from the Greenhill Condominums at 1001 City Line Avenue, just on the suburban side of City Line (Wynnewood). Just put the condo up for sale. Condos in that building are all selling for roughly half what she paid 7 years ago when she moved back here from Florida. No one really wants to live there.

The people that are moving in may be nice people and will hopefully maintain the places, but they are struggling to make ends meet financially and are moving there to get their kids into suburban schools. They are able to get the condos at low prices because no one else wants them. The same kind of thing in happening in the Northeast. The older generation is dying off, and there's not much demand to live there. So, the prices of houses turn over are dropping and will drop more in years to come. Even with the best of intentions, many of the people moving in won't be able to afford to keep already deteriorating properties in good repair. Over time, I see a gradual but progressive deterioration of that neighborhood. The new Sharswood. Whereas Sharswood itself is going to improve with new development and community initiatives.

Mount Airy is a foil, yes, but I'm not sure how many Mount Airy's the city can sustain or what draw the Northeast has to make it another one. For whatever reason, there is a demand to live in Mount Airy that I'm not seeing as to the Northeast.

Well Mt airy has a lot of advantages over the NE- one being its a much shorter train ride to CC and is served by 2 lines. Better housing stock (in terms of character), greener streets and proximity to a walkable retail district on Germantown Ave. Philly has a low % of single family houses and twins so to some degree the upper NE will always attract some interest. If you work in CC I do agree that the appeal is minimal. But for those that drive to the burbs for work and aren't willing or able to afford homes/taxes in many of the nicer suburbs it will remain an option. NOt everyone wants to live in the heart of the city and for many (especially those with families/kids) having a garage and/or off street parking and quiet is plus. The parts of the NE that are in visible decline are to the south and full of rowhouses and rentals. The housing prices and rents there are cheap and many lower income people perceive the lower NE to be less violent and more desirable than inner ring neighborhoods. Couple that with rising rents in the areas that border CC and UC and the migration makes sense.

jsbrook · #**7471** Posted **Feb 22, 2017, 7:37 PM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by 1487

Well Mt airy has a lot of advantages over the NE- one being its a much shorter train ride to CC and is served by 2 lines. Better housing stock (in terms of character), greener streets and proximity to a walkable retail district on Germantown Ave. Philly has a low % of single family houses and twins so to some degree the upper NE will always attract some interest. If you work in CC I do agree that the appeal is minimal. But for those that drive to the burbs for work and aren't willing or able to afford homes/taxes in many of the nicer suburbs it will remain an option. NOt everyone wants to live in the heart of the city and for many (especially those with families/kids) having a garage and/or off street parking and quiet is plus. The parts of the NE that are in visible decline are to the south and full of rowhouses and rentals. The housing prices and rents there are cheap and many lower income people perceive the lower NE to be less violent and more desirable than inner ring neighborhoods. Couple that with rising rents in the areas that border CC and UC and the migration makes sense.

Well, I hope you're right. I obviously don't WANT the Far Northeast to decline. So, I hope it remains desirable enough that at least pockets and/or neighborhoods maintain their value. A lot is going to depend on what you can get for your money elsewhere. Like suburbs with no wage tax. I haven't studied it, but I would wager that home values in Ardmore, for example, are comparable. Just as much or more house for your money, no wage tax, and Lower Merion schools. Maybe I'm wrong on that.

1487 · #**7472** Posted **Feb 22, 2017, 7:50 PM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by jsbrook

Well, I hope you're right. I obviously don't WANT the Far Northeast to decline. So, I hope it remains desirable enough that at least pockets and/or neighborhoods maintain their value. A lot is going to depend on what you can get for your money elsewhere. Like suburbs with no wage tax. I haven't studied it, but I would wager that home values in Ardmore, for example, are comparable. Just as much or more house for your money, no wage tax, and Lower Merion schools. Maybe I'm wrong on that.

city workers are another big group who likes the NE. Cops can now move after 5 years but other city workers still must live in the city. Many senior level city workers live in places like Somerton and Pine Valley.

No wage tax is great- but let's talk other taxes. Good luck paying as little as you will in Philly for a single home in taxes. I'd say you'd be lucky to pay double what a single family home in a decent Philly neighborhood would cost in property taxes. And the "affordable" housing stock in a place like Lower Merion is limited. If you price range is $500k+ then obviously LM makes more sense than the NE. Few homes in NE philly are in that price range. Try looking in the $275k-$300k range and see what's available in LM. Perhaps a crumbling twin in Ardmore or Narberth or one of the few townhomes in that district.

Here is something up there you may not expect. Pretty decent pricing for an area in decline.

http://www.realtor.com/realestateand...5_M37677-72547

summersm343 · #**7473** Posted **Feb 22, 2017, 8:15 PM**

Regarding the Northeast

I don't see this widespread decline and fear-mongering that people are claiming regarding the Northeast. It seems that white people are seeing more people of color, are panicking and moving out. It seems while some areas of the lower Northeast like Frankford, Oxford Circle, Castor Gardens, Lawncrest, Wissinoming and parts of Tacony have certainly declined. Areas like Fox Chase, Burholme, Holmesburg, Mayfair, Rhawnhurst, etc. still remain in good shape. Everything north of Pennypack Park (Far Northeast) still remains in good shape. I really don't see much, if any signs of decline here. If anything, immigrants are moving in and replacing the fearing mongering whites who are fleeing to the burbs.

Let's look at ZIP Codes:

19124 - Frankford - $28,988 MHI in 2013 - $29,344 in 2015
19135 - Wissinoming & Tacony - $36,480 MHI in 2013 - $38,154 in 2015
19149 - Mayfair & Castor Gardens - $41,482 MHI in 2013 - $40,920 in 2015
19111 - Fox Chase/Burholme, Oxford Circle and Lawncrest/Lawndale - $45,855 in 2013 - $44,301 in 2015
19152 - Rhawnhurst and Lexington Park - $45,619 MHI in 2013 - $48,735 in 2015
19136 - Holmesburg - $42,492 MHI in 2013 - $44,912 in 2015
19114 - Torresdale, Ashton-Woodenbridge, Morrell Park - $53,070 MHI in 2013 - $51,427 in 2015
19115 - Bustleton - $47,547 MHI in 2013 - $45,949 in 2015
19116 - Somerton - $56,014 MHI in 2013 - $52,452 in 2015
19154 - Millbrook & Crestmont Farms - $59,164 MHI in 2013 - $60,031 in 2015

Overall, I don't really see much of a change if any at all. The overall median household income remains pretty similar for the Northeast as a whole:

$45,671 MHI in 2013
$45,649 MHI in 2015

I don't think this is really a negligible change at all. It's possible even that wages in the Northeast are still recovering from the recession. Even so, the white people moving out of their homes and moving to Bucks County or South Jersey are usually being replaced by immigrants, who are coming in with a similar Median Household Income to those leaving. I really don't think this full blown decline of the Northeast is as large as people claim. Yes, the lower portions have declined, but I think the rest of the decline has been mainly halted, and the rest of the Northeast should remain relatively stable.

1487 · #**7474** Posted **Feb 22, 2017, 8:34 PM**

^I was looking at some listings in 19115 zip and I don't see any signs of depressed prices. Singles are still $250k-$550k and many newer homes with the highest price tags are pending. My brother is in lawncrest and it looks pretty good to me. There are some really nice tree lined streets in his area with 1600sf stone twins. The lower areas haven't been all that great in a long time and one HUGE difference between now and back in the day is many are being rented by landlords that don't care. Lower housing prices will lead to attraction of lower income people- just reality. The truth of the matter is there wasn't much demand from middle class minorities or whites to move into the lower NE rowhouse areas to replace the folks leaving in the 80s and 90s. Investors and others turned to rentals and for a variety of reasons the lower NE become one of the cheapest places to rent in the city.

jsbrook · #**7475** Posted **Feb 22, 2017, 9:02 PM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by 1487

city workers are another big group who likes the NE. Cops can now move after 5 years but other city workers still must live in the city. Many senior level city workers live in places like Somerton and Pine Valley.

No wage tax is great- but let's talk other taxes. Good luck paying as little as you will in Philly for a single home in taxes. I'd say you'd be lucky to pay double what a single family home in a decent Philly neighborhood would cost in property taxes. And the "affordable" housing stock in a place like Lower Merion is limited. If you price range is $500k+ then obviously LM makes more sense than the NE. Few homes in NE philly are in that price range. Try looking in the $275k-$300k range and see what's available in LM. Perhaps a crumbling twin in Ardmore or Narberth or one of the few townhomes in that district.

Here is something up there you may not expect. Pretty decent pricing for an area in decline.

http://www.realtor.com/realestateand...5_M37677-72547

Looks like plenty of homes under $350k in Ardmore, some substantially so, per my quick search on Zillow. What you post is nice, if still only 2,500 square feet, but it is still $450K. There are comparable homes in Ardmore of that size or bigger, in good repair even if not new construction. Anyway, I don't have much to add other than to hope the Far Northeast continues to maintain its values as current residents die off or move out. Hopefully you and summers are right.

MAF1968 · #**7476** Posted **Feb 22, 2017, 11:29 PM**

There is a plan for 250 car parking garage along with residential development at the Philmont train station in Lower Moreland. This station is one station south of the Forest Hills station along the West Trenton line. The land is cleared for the residential development. I'm not sure how far along they are with the planning. The last I read was that no development could begin until the traffic design was in place. The intersection of Philmont/Pine/Tomlison is quite busy already. The addition of parking for the West Trenton line is sorely needed in this area. I live less then a mile away in Somerton.

Daario · #**7477** Posted **Feb 22, 2017, 11:37 PM**

I've got to agree with summersm on this one. I've been around the upper northeast a bit and most seems perfectly fine. The narrative that "minorities are ruining northeast" seems to be overblown, and fits the negladelphian narrative that Philly is still in deep decline. Now don't get me wrong, there are still plenty of problems with the northeast, especially the lower areas like Frankford(arguably one of our worst neighborhoods in the city) and Mayfair. But everywhere above Pennypack seems fine, and will probably stay that way into the future.

While it's true that many of the original white population, there are still many middle class immigrants coming in and taking there place. I think I just restated summersm's post, but my 2 cents nonetheless.

hammersklavier · #**7478** Posted **Feb 23, 2017, 1:40 AM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by 1487

the far northeast has larger, pricier houses and less apts. I don't see it being ripe for decline. No more so than Roxborough or West Mt. Airy.

Ironically, this is part of what makes it riper for decline: unlike Roxborough and Mt. Airy, the Far Notheast isn't in the region's favored quarter. Nor is it close to other major centers of regional investment.

The Near Northeast, especially Oxford Circle, has largely shifted from a working-class white population to a much more demographically diverse working-class population. It is dominated by spacious and pretty airlite architecture. The Far Northeast, on the other hand, is (beyond being far from any center of investment) dominated by postwar airlites that generally need a lot of work ... while at the same time dominated by an aging demographic without the resources to maintain their houses.

The Far Northeast today is, in short, much like lower North Philly ca. 1920, in the twilight of its middle-class status with its initial population slowly dying. And with the Near Northeast's relative stability (black and Hispanic working-class homeowners are still ... working-class homeowners), I can easily see some of the city's poorest populations getting pushed out here due to investment pressure in the inner core in the not too distant future; I can just as easily see increased immigrant spread into the Far Northeast as they fill out the Near Northeast.

Quote:

Originally Posted by MAF1968

There is a plan for 250 car parking garage along with residential development at the Philmont train station in Lower Moreland. This station is one station south of the Forest Hills station along the West Trenton line. The land is cleared for the residential development. I'm not sure how far along they are with the planning. The last I read was that no development could begin until the traffic design was in place. The intersection of Philmont/Pine/Tomlison is quite busy already. The addition of parking for the West Trenton line is sorely needed in this area. I live less then a mile away in Somerton.

The area around the Philmont station would be wonderful for TOD IMO.

domodeez · #**7479** Posted **Feb 23, 2017, 3:39 AM**

lack of access to transit (and thereby access to employment hubs) in the NE as compared to the transit-rich NW also factors in

1487 · #**7480** Posted **Feb 23, 2017, 1:15 PM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by jsbrook

Looks like plenty of homes under $350k in Ardmore, some substantially so, per my quick search on Zillow. What you post is nice, if still only 2,500 square feet, but it is still $450K. There are comparable homes in Ardmore of that size or bigger, in good repair even if not new construction. Anyway, I don't have much to add other than to hope the Far Northeast continues to maintain its values as current residents die off or move out. Hopefully you and summers are right.

average price in LM vs NE isn't even close. That was my point. I didn't say there weren't any homes in LM for under $300k. But they are few and far between and will be on average smaller, in worse condition and sitting on smaller plots vs a similarly priced home in NE Philly. And that's before you get to taxes. Not everyone has school aged kids so the prospect of paying more for for a school district isn't appealing to all homeowners.