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View Poll Results: Which party do you plan to vote for in the 2019 federal election?
Conservative Party 73 25.61%
Liberal Party 119 41.75%
NDP 44 15.44%
Green Party 27 9.47%
Peoples Party of Canada 22 7.72%
Voters: 285. You may not vote on this poll

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  #4801  
Old Posted Oct 22, 2019, 2:00 PM
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Nunavut Elected the youngest MP @ 25.
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  #4802  
Old Posted Oct 22, 2019, 2:29 PM
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Nunavut Elected the youngest MP @ 25.
Eric Melillo in Kenora is just 21.
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  #4803  
Old Posted Oct 22, 2019, 2:58 PM
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On a seat count the CEO of Ekos Frank Graves did very well predicting a strong Liberal minority, he was very close. Also Quito Magi CEO of Mainstreet predicted the seat count almost bang on.
Which one was on twitter offering bets? Is he cashing in?
     
     
  #4804  
Old Posted Oct 22, 2019, 3:37 PM
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I guess this means we can count out electoral reform for the foreseeable future.
Makes me wonder if this result makes electoral reform more likely. I mean, now that the Cons have been stung by FPTP rather than benefit from it as usual, maybe they'll rethink their stance. If the Cons, Bloc, NDP, and Greens agreed, they could probably push a reform through. Or at least be something the cons consider th next time they're in power.
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  #4805  
Old Posted Oct 22, 2019, 3:40 PM
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Makes me wonder if this result makes electoral reform more likely. I mean, now that the Cons have been stung by FPTP rather than benefit from it as usual, maybe they'll rethink their stance. If the Cons, Bloc, NDP, and Greens agreed, they could probably push a reform through. Or at least be something the cons consider th next time they're in power.
I don't see it.

The Conservatives benefit more from FPTP than they lose from it. It's basically their only path to majority government in this country.
     
     
  #4806  
Old Posted Oct 22, 2019, 3:54 PM
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Originally Posted by Nouvellecosse View Post
Makes me wonder if this result makes electoral reform more likely. I mean, now that the Cons have been stung by FPTP rather than benefit from it as usual, maybe they'll rethink their stance. If the Cons, Bloc, NDP, and Greens agreed, they could probably push a reform through. Or at least be something the cons consider th next time they're in power.
I'd be interested to know what the results might have looked like under a ranked balloting system. I'm not sure the result would have been drastically different under a PR system - the Conservatives would have the most votes and seats, but the Liberals-NDP would, together, have more votes and more seats, including more votes/seats than Conservatives-Bloc, no? Would PR have given us a Liberal-NDP government or would the Greens have the balance of power?
     
     
  #4807  
Old Posted Oct 22, 2019, 4:05 PM
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I'd be interested to know what the results might have looked like under a ranked balloting system. I'm not sure the result would have been drastically different under a PR system - the Conservatives would have the most votes, but the Liberals-NDP would have more votes and more seats, including more votes/seats than Conservatives-Bloc, no?
It's very difficult to predict since you can't just take the vote the occurs under one system and assume people will vote the same way under another because people vote largely based on the dynamics of the system in place. In the case of FPTP, it's the scourge of strategic voting. In other words, there may be people who would have voted PPC but instead voted Con, people who voted Liberal who would rather have voted NDP, Green, etc.

The one thing I do predict is that voter engagement and turnout would increase and the spread of votes would be less concentrated in a couple large parties and instead spread more evenly across 5-10. You might start see a breakdowns of something like 21% + 19% + 16% + 14% + 12% + 10% + 6% + 2%
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  #4808  
Old Posted Oct 22, 2019, 4:25 PM
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Eric Melillo in Kenora is just 21.
Damn the media got it wrong again.

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/north...2019-1.5329390

It will be interesting to see her in government. especially when it comes to tradition ways of living off the land. (Hunting seal and walrus). Should be in conflict with the Greens and some in her own party.
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  #4809  
Old Posted Oct 22, 2019, 4:33 PM
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Ranked voting could very well destabilize the country by encouraging even more regional voting patterns and the founding of more splinter parties. It will certainly massively change politics. We are not used to coalition governments, which will become a necessity. This reflects the reluctance of moving in this direction.
     
     
  #4810  
Old Posted Oct 22, 2019, 4:41 PM
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Andy's right, the best pollster is the one who predicted the above the most closely, not the seats.

Just as how in the U.S. last time, the very best pollsters were the ones who predicted Hillary to win the popular vote by ~3 million while declaring Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania all "too close to call".

Any pollster who would have predicted a Trump win did a low-quality pollster job... and was just super lucky stumbling upon the correct outcome despite failing at his job.
This seems odd to me. For one thing, the seat counts matter, not the popular vote count. The optimal pollster would predict both accurately. The optimal pollster predicts every single vote.

There's always a question of whether a prediction used a repeatable and useful methodology or if a close prediction was just a lucky monkey throwing a dart. The probability of a false positive is lower if the pollster predicted popular votes and seat counts than if they predicted only one of those sets of data, so it's useful to look at both.

There are so many polls and predictions that invariably somebody out there will have predicted the outcome. The question is whether they can do this repeatedly. We never really know because we don't repeat elections often enough. After every election there is some post hoc reasoning for why this or that methodology worked and then next election we are back to low odds of prediction.

Which is why from the beginning I said I think these polls give a false sense of certainty. The error in prediction is pretty large and FPTP magnifies the effect of changes in voting patterns so much that I don't think anybody can accurately predict the outcome. It's even worse when you start talking about polls 2 weeks before, 1 month before, 2 months, etc. Those are just noise. Then below that we have all the people who say somebody is "finished" whenever some scandal comes out. See all the people posting immediately post black/brownface about how JT was "finished".
     
     
  #4811  
Old Posted Oct 22, 2019, 4:51 PM
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Originally Posted by lrt's friend View Post
Ranked voting could very well destabilize the country by encouraging even more regional voting patterns and the founding of more splinter parties. It will certainly massively change politics. We are not used to coalition governments, which will become a necessity. This reflects the reluctance of moving in this direction.
Personally I think the biggest destabilizing effect results from people feeling as if their voices aren't heard and aren't reflected in the makeup of parliament. If a region has a unique set of issues and is able to actually have those issues represented in proportion to their population I think that could go a long way toward addressing those concerns.
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  #4812  
Old Posted Oct 22, 2019, 4:57 PM
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Originally Posted by Nouvellecosse View Post
Personally I think the biggest destabilizing effect results from people feeling as if their voices aren't heard and aren't reflected in the makeup of parliament. If a region has a unique set of issues and is able to actually have those issues represented in proportion to their population I think that could go a long way toward addressing those concerns.
Canada already has provincial governments though; they are the best champions of provincial issues in our system. Most of the dysfunction seems to stem either from federal government bloat or from people wanting to control things in another province.
     
     
  #4813  
Old Posted Oct 22, 2019, 4:57 PM
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Originally Posted by Nouvellecosse View Post
Personally I think the biggest destabilizing effect results from people feeling as if their voices aren't heard and aren't reflected in the makeup of parliament. If a region has a unique set of issues and is able to actually have those issues represented in proportion to their population I think that could go a long way toward addressing those concerns.
I tend to be of this view, though I still notice that AB-SK, the Prairies, the West, whatever... have a unique set of issues that are represented in proportion to their population in Canada's parliament.

In fact, if you consider that almost the entire Conservative caucus including MPs from Ontario, Quebec and Atlantic Canada tends to be sympathetic to western gripes, it's actually out of proportion to their share of the population.

They also had their concerns front and centre for 9 years of Stephen Harper-led governments pretty darn recently.
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  #4814  
Old Posted Oct 22, 2019, 5:01 PM
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In fact, if you consider that almost the entire Conservative caucus including MPs from Ontario, Quebec and Atlantic Canada tends to be sympathetic to western gripes, it's actually out of proportion to their share of the population.

They also had their concerns front and centre for 9 years of Stephen Harper-led governments pretty darn recently.
I've complained before that Albertan issues tend to be framed in such a way that they expect to be centre stage all the time. Naheed Nenshi alluded to this during the CBC commentary last night when he spoke about how Albertans feel they ought to be the economic engine of the country.

It's hard to point to concrete ways that Alberta was treated badly by the Liberal majority. The federal government was pushing for Trans Mountain to happen. There was the carbon tax I guess, and the partial ban on tanker traffic on the west coast. Maybe they could have made Alberta happy by pricing carbon at $0 and having no environmental protections in BC. Probably not.

If you can never make somebody happy, whatever you do, you're better off moving on and focusing on something else. So I hope they start talking about other issues like national pharmacare.
     
     
  #4815  
Old Posted Oct 22, 2019, 5:04 PM
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This seems odd to me. For one thing, the seat counts matter, not the popular vote count. The optimal pollster would predict both accurately. The optimal pollster predicts every single vote.

There's always a question of whether a prediction used a repeatable and useful methodology or if a close prediction was just a lucky monkey throwing a dart. The probability of a false positive is lower if the pollster predicted popular votes and seat counts than if they predicted only one of those sets of data, so it's useful to look at both.

There are so many polls and predictions that invariably somebody out there will have predicted the outcome. The question is whether they can do this repeatedly. We never really know because we don't repeat elections often enough. After every election there is some post hoc reasoning for why this or that methodology worked and then next election we are back to low odds of prediction.

Which is why from the beginning I said I think these polls give a false sense of certainty. The error in prediction is pretty large and FPTP magnifies the effect of changes in voting patterns so much that I don't think anybody can accurately predict the outcome. It's even worse when you start talking about polls 2 weeks before, 1 month before, 2 months, etc. Those are just noise. Then below that we have all the people who say somebody is "finished" whenever some scandal comes out. See all the people posting immediately post black/brownface about how JT was "finished".
To be fair to the pollsters, it may have been mostly one thing - not understanding or not believing how huge the Tory vote would be on the Prairies - that caused their vote predictions to be wrong. Those votes could only get the Conservatives so many seats, so you had Tories pulling in 40,000-50,000+ plus votes all over Alberta while the Liberals were winning a lot of seats with 10,000 or less. One aspect of vote efficiency is how the Liberals (and NDP to some extent) have so much support in areas of the country with very small ridings. The 4 PEI ridings combined cast far fewer Liberal votes than many individual Alberta ridings cast for the Conservatives.
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  #4816  
Old Posted Oct 22, 2019, 5:05 PM
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To be fair to the pollsters, it may have been mostly one thing - not understanding or not believing how huge the Tory vote would be on the Prairies - that caused their vote predictions to be wrong. Those votes could only get the Conservatives so many seats, so you had Tories pulling in 40,000-50,000+ plus votes all over Alberta while the Liberals were winning a lot of seats with 10,000 or less. One aspect of vote efficiency is how the Liberals (and NDP to some extent) have so much support in areas of the country with very small ridings. The 4 PEI ridings combined cast far fewer Liberal votes than many individual Alberta ridings cast for the Conservatives.
Sssh. Don't tell them that. They'll be even angrier!
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  #4817  
Old Posted Oct 22, 2019, 5:06 PM
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I've complained before that Albertan issues tend to be framed in such a way that they expect to be centre stage all the time. Naheed Nenshi alluded to this during the CBC commentary last night when he spoke about how Albertans feel they ought to be the economic engine of the country.
.
What angle was he getting at with that statement?
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  #4818  
Old Posted Oct 22, 2019, 5:15 PM
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Which one was on twitter offering bets? Is he cashing in?
Quito Magi of Mainstreet was offering bets to Nick from Campaign Research that Trudeau would win with over 150+ seats. Nick has offered to donate $1000 to charity this morning.
     
     
  #4819  
Old Posted Oct 22, 2019, 5:17 PM
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Sssh. Don't tell them that. They'll be even angrier!
Why shouldn’t they be?
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  #4820  
Old Posted Oct 22, 2019, 5:19 PM
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Canada already has provincial governments though; they are the best champions of provincial issues in our system. Most of the dysfunction seems to stem either from federal government bloat or from people wanting to control things in another province.
If that's true and local issues should be handled provincially then that undermines the very premise of having FPTP to begin with. The whole point was that the representatives from each riding were supposed to represent each individual district in Ottawa and that each district would choose its preferred MP based on it's local priorities and preferences. Viewed in that light, the national popular vote is irrelevant since if a district chooses a particular MP, it doesn't matter if they got 25% of the vote or 75% of the vote in the riding since that's still the person that the most people in the riding voted for to represent the local issues. Erase that local element and the case for FPTP collapses. There's no longer a reason why huge numbers of votes are basically disregarded in the makeup of parliament.
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