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View Poll Results: Which party do you plan to vote for in the 2019 federal election?
Conservative Party 73 25.61%
Liberal Party 119 41.75%
NDP 44 15.44%
Green Party 27 9.47%
Peoples Party of Canada 22 7.72%
Voters: 285. You may not vote on this poll

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  #4781  
Old Posted Oct 22, 2019, 4:26 AM
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What a (political) monoculture the prairies is. Just a sea of blue.

Looks like Canada's "flyover country."
With the exception of Winnipeg and Northern Manitoba.
     
     
  #4782  
Old Posted Oct 22, 2019, 4:28 AM
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Some interesting data from tonight....

1) Lisa Raitt is out of Milton, the new Liberal guy won
2) The Liberals swept the GTA.... winning EVERY seat in Toronto
3) The Liberals won every seat in Mississauga, every seat in Brampton
4) The Liberals won Oakville, Burlington, Vaughan, Newmarket, King, 2/3 seats in Markham, Whitby, Ajax, Pickering, 2/4 Hamilton ridings, St Catherines, Niagara Centre, Waterloo, Kitchener, Guelph, 2/3 London seats
5) Every seat in Ottawa went Liberal

Basically you can thank Ontario for this result.

Also, with 35 seat wins in Quebec for the LPC, they over performed what many in here thought.

Last edited by travis3000; Oct 22, 2019 at 5:03 AM.
     
     
  #4783  
Old Posted Oct 22, 2019, 4:32 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by travis3000 View Post
Some interesting data from tonight....

1) Lisa Raitt is out of Milton, the new Liberal guy won
2) The Liberals swept the GTA.... winning EVERY seat in Toronto
3) The Liberals won every seat in Mississauga, every seat in Brampton
4) The Liberals won Oakville, Burlington, Vaughan, King, 2/3 seats in Markham, Whitby, Ajax, Pickering, 2/4 Hamilton ridings, St Catherines, Niagara Centre, Waterloo, Kitchener, Guelph, 2/3 London seats
5) Every seat in Ottawa went Liberal
That was mostly already true, but the fact that neither the Conservatives or NDP could make any headway (and even lost Raitt's seat) is really surprising.
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  #4784  
Old Posted Oct 22, 2019, 4:36 AM
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Originally Posted by travis3000 View Post
Some interesting data from tonight....

1) Lisa Raitt is out of Milton, the new Liberal guy won
2) The Liberals swept the GTA.... winning EVERY seat in Toronto
3) The Liberals won every seat in Mississauga, every seat in Brampton
4) The Liberals won Oakville, Burlington, Vaughan, King, 2/3 seats in Markham, Whitby, Ajax, Pickering, 2/4 Hamilton ridings, St Catherines, Niagara Centre, Waterloo, Kitchener, Guelph, 2/3 London seats
5) Every seat in Ottawa went Liberal
Quote:
Originally Posted by Andy6 View Post
That was mostly already true, but the fact that neither the Conservatives or NDP could make any headway (and even lost Raitt's seat) is really surprising.
I hope this serves as a wakeup call to the cons. Losing this big in the swing ridings is unacceptable. The Ford factor also played a role I suppose.
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  #4785  
Old Posted Oct 22, 2019, 4:48 AM
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Originally Posted by Dengler Avenue View Post
I hope this serves as a wakeup call to the cons. Losing this big in the swing ridings is unacceptable. The Ford factor also played a role I suppose.
There just seems to have been a big swath through central Ontario, including the GTA, where Conservative support sank, even compared to last time. Elsewhere in Ontario they did OK but not great.

What will Trudeau do for cabinet ministers for Alberta and Saskatchewan. Look to the Senate, I guess ... just like pappy did.

So which pollster wins if the popular vote remains at:

C 33-34
L 32
N 15-16
Q 8
G 6
P 2

That doesn't look like anything I remember seeing, really.
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  #4786  
Old Posted Oct 22, 2019, 4:52 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Andy6 View Post
There just seems to have been a big swath through central Ontario, including the GTA, where Conservative support sank, even compared to last time. Elsewhere in Ontario they did OK but not great.

What will Trudeau do for cabinet ministers for Alberta and Saskatchewan. Look to the Senate, I guess ... just like pappy did.

So which pollster wins if the popular vote remains at:

C 33-34
L 32
N 15-16
Q 8
G 6
P 2

That doesn't look like anything I remember seeing, really.
On a seat count the CEO of Ekos Frank Graves did very well predicting a strong Liberal minority, he was very close. Also Quito Magi CEO of Mainstreet predicted the seat count almost bang on.
     
     
  #4787  
Old Posted Oct 22, 2019, 5:04 AM
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Originally Posted by travis3000 View Post
On a seat count the CEO of Ekos Frank Graves did very well predicting a strong Liberal minority, he was very close. Also Quito Magi CEO of Mainstreet predicted the seat count almost bang on.
Did they derive those seat counts from popular vote percentages resembling these? If not, I'm not sure how impressive an achievement that would be.
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  #4788  
Old Posted Oct 22, 2019, 5:08 AM
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How is it that the audio from tv is delayed compared to the internet??
I've never ever experienced that before.
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  #4789  
Old Posted Oct 22, 2019, 5:10 AM
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its also delayed from SD to HD channels, the HD audio is a few seconds behind the SD

It drives me crazy cause at work they put the TV on the SD channel so I change it to the HD channel and its like deja vu
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  #4790  
Old Posted Oct 22, 2019, 5:11 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Andy6 View Post
So which pollster wins if the popular vote remains at:

C 33-34
L 32
N 15-16
Q 8
G 6
P 2

That doesn't look like anything I remember seeing, really.
Andy's right, the best pollster is the one who predicted the above the most closely, not the seats.

Just as how in the U.S. last time, the very best pollsters were the ones who predicted Hillary to win the popular vote by ~3 million while declaring Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania all "too close to call".

Any pollster who would have predicted a Trump win did a low-quality pollster job... and was just super lucky stumbling upon the correct outcome despite failing at his job.
     
     
  #4791  
Old Posted Oct 22, 2019, 5:12 AM
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Wow the winner preemptiing the losers concession speech. Wonder how that happened, miscommunication or real bitterness?
     
     
  #4792  
Old Posted Oct 22, 2019, 5:13 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by whatnext View Post
Wow the winner preemptiing the losers concession speech. Wonder how that happened, miscommunication or real bitterness?
Well Ford did that to Wynne...
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We'll soon begin work to extend Highway 417 to Renfrew, first replacing the intersection of Calabogie Road with an interchange!

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  #4793  
Old Posted Oct 22, 2019, 5:15 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Andy6 View Post
Did they derive those seat counts from popular vote percentages resembling these? If not, I'm not sure how impressive an achievement that would be.
Mainstreet does their own independent seat polls. He was almost bang on. He deserves credit.
     
     
  #4794  
Old Posted Oct 22, 2019, 5:30 AM
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Originally Posted by travis3000 View Post
Also, with 35 seat wins in Quebec for the LPC, they over performed what many in here thought.
They won many of those by a super narrow margin though. I admit I was expecting their share of the vote to be a hair lower and the Bloc vote to be a hair higher, which would have yielded pretty much exactly the FPTP results I predicted.

The Libs got super lucky this time with FPTP. Turns out it pays to lie.
     
     
  #4795  
Old Posted Oct 22, 2019, 5:33 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Loco101 View Post
My prediction for this election and this was has been the hardest to predict of any in my lifetime.

Percetage of votes:

LPC: 34.0%

CPC: 32.9%

NDP: 19.2%

BQ: 8.4%

GPC: 5.1%

PPC: 1.6%

Other: 0.5%


Seats:


LPC: 143

CPC: 126

BQ: 38

NDP: 26

GPC: 3

PPC: 1

Other: 1

Some people on here who aren't Ontarian seem to think that the CPC will make big gains in Ontario. I have a hard time seeing that happen both because of Doug Ford and just the state of the economy being so good. My guess is that the Liberals will be about 7 or 8 percentage points above the Conservatives in support. It very well could end up being 10% like in 2015 but I'm guessing 7-8% because turnout won't be quite as high.

My seat prediction for Ontario:

LPC: 78

CPC: 35

NDP: 8
The results aren't final yet and I'll go over it all later but here are the results for Ontario at this moment:

LPC: 78

CPC: 37

NDP: 6

I knew my prediction would be pretty close for Ontario.
     
     
  #4796  
Old Posted Oct 22, 2019, 5:33 AM
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An Election Seat Breakdown:

Newfoundland
Liberals= 6
NDP= 1

Nova Scotia
Liberals=10
Conservatives=1

Prince Edward Island
Liberals=4

New Brunswick
Liberals= 6
Conservatives= 3
Green= 1

Quebec
Liberals= 35
Bloc= 32
Conservatives= 10
NDP= 1

Ontario
Liberals= 78
Conservatives= 37
NDP= 6

Manitoba
Conservatives= 7
Liberals= 4
NDP= 3

Saskatchewan
Conservatives= 14

Alberta
Conservatives= 33
NDP= 1

British Columbia
Conservatives= 16
NDP= 12
Liberals= 11
Green= 2
Independent= 1

Territories
Liberals= 2
NDP= 1

Last edited by travis3000; Oct 22, 2019 at 5:48 AM.
     
     
  #4797  
Old Posted Oct 22, 2019, 5:41 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by lio45 View Post
They won many of those by a super narrow margin though. I admit I was expecting their share of the vote to be a hair lower and the Bloc vote to be a hair higher, which would have yielded pretty much exactly the FPTP results I predicted.

The Libs got super lucky this time with FPTP. Turns out it pays to lie.
The Bloc did well but not as well as I thought the party would do.

Results as of now for Quebec:

Seats:

LPC: 35

BQ: 32

CPC: 10

NDP: 1

Percentage of votes:

LPC: 34.0%

BQ: 32.7%

CPC: 16.1%

NDP: 10.8%

In Quebec, the Liberals received the most votes of any party and also won the most seats.

The Bloc didn't even receive a third of votes. Most of the seats they won were at the expense of the NDP.
     
     
  #4798  
Old Posted Oct 22, 2019, 5:42 AM
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Should we move this conversation to the "who did you vote for" thread as the election is now over?
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  #4799  
Old Posted Oct 22, 2019, 7:50 AM
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Edmonton, Regina and Saskatoon also have "sizeable" and significant aboriginal populations, yet you don't see your hypothesis occurring in those regions. So it's highly doubtful that the local aboriginal populations have any major influence in the voting outcomes, assuming like yourself that they are all left-leaning.
They are left-leaning, but it's no secret that Aboriginals don't usually vote. At least not at the rate of the general population. I've heard that in poast elections nearly 60% of Canadians cast ballots. However, only 12% of First Nations people voted last election.
     
     
  #4800  
Old Posted Oct 22, 2019, 11:52 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Loco101 View Post
The Bloc did well but not as well as I thought the party would do.

Results as of now for Quebec:

Seats:

LPC: 35

BQ: 32

CPC: 10

NDP: 1

Percentage of votes:

LPC: 34.0%

BQ: 32.7%

CPC: 16.1%

NDP: 10.8%

In Quebec, the Liberals received the most votes of any party and also won the most seats.

The Bloc didn't even receive a third of votes. Most of the seats they won were at the expense of the NDP.
BQ voters don’t reliably vote. The party doesn’t have much of an organization. This was pretty predictable.
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