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View Poll Results: Which party do you plan to vote for in the 2019 federal election?
Conservative Party 73 25.61%
Liberal Party 119 41.75%
NDP 44 15.44%
Green Party 27 9.47%
Peoples Party of Canada 22 7.72%
Voters: 285. You may not vote on this poll

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  #4641  
Old Posted Oct 21, 2019, 8:00 PM
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The major country in the Commonwealth - the UK general elections are always held on Thursdays.

A reminder on the CBC seat projection vs actual seats won from 2015

     
     
  #4642  
Old Posted Oct 21, 2019, 8:01 PM
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Wow. Nailed that Green seat.
     
     
  #4643  
Old Posted Oct 21, 2019, 8:10 PM
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55 of the 56 most urban ridings are going NDP or Liberal. Gets up to 63 if you include the Bloc.
     
     
  #4644  
Old Posted Oct 21, 2019, 8:21 PM
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55 of the 56 most urban ridings are going NDP or Liberal. Gets up to 63 if you include the Bloc.
How do you define “most urban”?
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  #4645  
Old Posted Oct 21, 2019, 8:22 PM
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How do you define “most urban”?
By population density
     
     
  #4646  
Old Posted Oct 21, 2019, 8:24 PM
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Make the banks administer it.
You want the banks to know how we voted?
     
     
  #4647  
Old Posted Oct 21, 2019, 8:24 PM
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Originally Posted by jigglysquishy View Post
55 of the 56 most urban ridings are going NDP or Liberal. Gets up to 63 if you include the Bloc.
Interesting when you think of the non-urban(e) image that many people have of Bloc Québécois voters.
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  #4648  
Old Posted Oct 21, 2019, 8:29 PM
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Is it normal for serious interviews to happen on Election Day? I thought campaigning was not allowed on the day of the vote.

Either way, here's Scheer getting lit up on live TV:

https://twitter.com/i/status/1186228628675289088
     
     
  #4649  
Old Posted Oct 21, 2019, 8:38 PM
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Interesting when you think of the non-urban(e) image that many people have of Bloc Québécois voters.
Where do they hold any urban seats? There’s the one way out in the east end of Montreal. They won most of their existing seats with 30% of the vote anyway.
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  #4650  
Old Posted Oct 21, 2019, 8:42 PM
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Where do they hold any urban seats? There’s the one way out in the east end of Montreal. They won most of their existing seats with 30% of the vote anyway.
They don't hold any at the moment, but historically they did quite well in the eastern half of centralmost Montreal, and then going eastwards as you said.
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  #4651  
Old Posted Oct 21, 2019, 8:47 PM
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They're polling to win Hochelaga in east Montreal. It is the 19th most densely populated riding in the country.
     
     
  #4652  
Old Posted Oct 21, 2019, 8:49 PM
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I still don't understand why Atlantic Canada is allowed to be so over represented in seats with 32 for a region of 2.4 million people while Manitoba and Sask at over 2.5 million people only get 28 seats and Ontario with over 38% of the population gets only 36% of the 338 seats in parliament, Alberta only gets 10% of seats yet is 11.6% of the population.
     
     
  #4653  
Old Posted Oct 21, 2019, 8:52 PM
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They're polling to win Hochelaga in east Montreal. It is the 19th most densely populated riding in the country.
They also might have a chance to take Rosemont-La-Petite-Patrie, which is also very dense and urban, and more urbane than HoMa which is historically proletarian but admittedly more than halfway towards gentrification at this point.

If the Liberals did not have environmentalist star candidate Steven Guilbault running there the Bloc also would have a good chance at winning Laurier-Sainte-Marie which is Gilles Duceppe's old riding. It is quite central just on the northeastern fringes of downtown. This is the Plateau-Mont-Royal which is hipster central.
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  #4654  
Old Posted Oct 21, 2019, 8:54 PM
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I still don't understand why Atlantic Canada is allowed to be so over represented in seats with 32 for a region of 2.4 million people while Manitoba and Sask at over 2.5 million people only get 28 seats and Ontario with over 38% of the population gets only 36% of the 338 seats in parliament, Alberta only gets 10% of seats yet is 11.6% of the population.
Ontario and Alberta will add the most new seats the next time the House is expanded.
     
     
  #4655  
Old Posted Oct 21, 2019, 8:54 PM
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Quote:
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I still don't understand why Atlantic Canada is allowed to be so over represented in seats with 32 for a region of 2.4 million people while Manitoba and Sask at over 2.5 million people only get 28 seats and Ontario with over 38% of the population gets only 36% of the 338 seats in parliament, Alberta only gets 10% of seats yet is 11.6% of the population.
It's mostly PEI that skews things due to having been guaranteed four HoC seats forever as one of the conditions for it joining Confederation in 1873.
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  #4656  
Old Posted Oct 21, 2019, 8:54 PM
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Quote:
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How do you define “most urban”?
Given how the ridings are drawn up, density doesn't mean much. Population-weighted density is sometimes used to make density figures less reliant on how boundaries are drawn up but the question of how to subdivide the areas is as arbitrary as the riding boundaries themselves.

To illustrate the problem with density, imagine ridings A and B:

Riding A has 79,500 people living in 2 square kilometers and an adjacent area of 798 square kilometers with 500 people. The density is 100 people per square kilometer.

Riding B has 80,000 people evenly dispersed over 400 square kilometers. The density is 200 people per square kilometer.

In riding A, over 99% of the people live in much higher density conditions than riding B. But riding B's average density is 2x that of riding A.

This is an extreme example but even a moderate version of this can really throw things off and this is the norm rather than the exception in how ridings are drawn up in Canada. There's no attempt to draw up areas of comparable density. Census tracts are similar. So much census tract level analysis I see is bogus; it could change wildly with different tract boundaries.
     
     
  #4657  
Old Posted Oct 21, 2019, 8:55 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by thurmas View Post
I still don't understand why Atlantic Canada is allowed to be so over represented in seats with 32 for a region of 2.4 million people while Manitoba and Sask at over 2.5 million people only get 28 seats and Ontario with over 38% of the population gets only 36% of the 338 seats in parliament, Alberta only gets 10% of seats yet is 11.6% of the population.
PEI gets 4 seats for ~150,000.

There's a stipulation of a grandfather clause and Senatorial clause.

The Representation Formula
     
     
  #4658  
Old Posted Oct 21, 2019, 8:56 PM
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Very hard election to predict, a few trends worth noting:

1) There is very little enthusiasm among the general public over one particular candidate

2) With that said, CPC voters are more engaged as they share a common hate for Trudeau

3) Trudeau's rallies were much bigger and had a better energy to them over all other leaders

4) Voter turnout was 29% higher over 2015, and most polling gives the CPC the advantage for this chunk of votes.

5) There is a general hatred for Trudeau among a large chunk of the population, especially in Western Canada and rural ON, QB.

6) Singh is a very popular guy in terms of personality. He started the campaign at 10% and ended it at 18%.

7) The Bloc surge is huge, essentially eliminating 20ish LPC potential seats and 4-5 CPC potential seats all in Quebec.

With that said, my final prediction for tonight is as follows

Atlantic Canada
LPC= 23
CPC= 6
NDP= 3

Quebec
BQ= 37
LPC= 30
CPC= 9
NDP= 1
PPC= 1

Ontario
LPC= 67
CPC= 44
NDP= 10

Manitoba
CPC= 9
LPC= 3
NDP= 2

Saskatchewan

CPC= 12
LPC= 1
NDP= 1

Alberta
CPC= 34

British Columbia

CPC= 18
LPC= 11
NDP= 10
GREEN= 2
IND= 1

Territoties
LPC= 3

TOTAL=
LPC= 138
CPC= 132
BLOC= 37
NDP= 27
GREEN= 2
PPC= 1
INDP= 1
     
     
  #4659  
Old Posted Oct 21, 2019, 8:58 PM
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The one thing I like about the americans and congress is they redistribute seats based upon states gaining and losing population to reflect population shifts without having to add more members to congress which is pointless and expensive. Canada does not need more MP's but the seat allocations could easily be redistributed and save taxpayers money from having more backbench mp's and their staff members and their hotel and flight costs ect.. ect...
     
     
  #4660  
Old Posted Oct 21, 2019, 8:59 PM
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The one thing I like about the americans and congress is they redistribute seats based upon states gaining and losing population to reflect population shifts without having to add more members to congress which is pointless and expensive. Canada does not need more MP's but the seat allocations could easily be redistributed and save taxpayers money from having more backbench mp's and their staff members and their hotel and flight costs ect.. ect...
God forbid we ever devolve into the American shitshow, with its gerrymandering of districts.
     
     
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