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View Poll Results: Which party do you plan to vote for in the 2019 federal election?
Conservative Party 73 25.61%
Liberal Party 119 41.75%
NDP 44 15.44%
Green Party 27 9.47%
Peoples Party of Canada 22 7.72%
Voters: 285. You may not vote on this poll

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  #4521  
Old Posted Oct 21, 2019, 2:09 AM
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Nice intersectionality!
Dece buzzword usage!!!!

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She must be a conservative plant!
Yes!

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Originally Posted by WarrenC12 View Post
Ekos CEO or whatever tweeted that Lib majority was most likely, Lib minority possible, CPC minority very doubtful. Strong words...
Ekos is the Angus Reid of the left tbqh. I'm on their Probit panel and get surveys weekly on a wide variety of random shit and I alone skew them 20 points left with my fervent Marxist-Leninism. And their polls usually are pretty wrong. Sometimes the most wrong.

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That could be very true and seems to be following the trend in the U.S. of how Trump taped into disaffected working class men and getting their votes in the rust belt/midwest in Wisconsin, Michigan, Indiana, Ohio and Pennsylvania as the Democrats failed to campaign effectively for their votes in 2016 or for that matter even campaign for them at all as Hillary didn't even bother to campaign in Michigan or Wisconsin near the end of the election taking those votes for granted.
The centre and right wing hates when we point this out but: Bernie would have won those states.
     
     
  #4522  
Old Posted Oct 21, 2019, 2:16 AM
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I agree and hope Bernie can win this time, if you can I suggest watching the Jimmy Dore show on youtube he points out how crooked the democratic party is to true progressives and how bad the media bias is in the U.S.
     
     
  #4523  
Old Posted Oct 21, 2019, 2:20 AM
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Scheer got a rally of 2000 last night in Richmond Hill and it looked like mostly men. I think the male pissed off vote looks pretty determined right now.
Richmond Hill is one of the few Liberal seats in Ontario that the Conservatives have a good chance of picking up. Having 2000 people for a rally in the GTA with a population of about 6.5 million people is nothing impressive.
     
     
  #4524  
Old Posted Oct 21, 2019, 2:24 AM
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For comparison, Bernie had a rally in a Brooklyn park on Saturday and drew 25,000.
     
     
  #4525  
Old Posted Oct 21, 2019, 2:26 AM
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I agree and hope Bernie can win this time, if you can I suggest watching the Jimmy Dore show on youtube he points out how crooked the democratic party is to true progressives and how bad the media bias is in the U.S.
You mean this jagoff comedian?

Video Link


     
     
  #4526  
Old Posted Oct 21, 2019, 2:29 AM
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You mean this jagoff comedian?

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His comedy is shit but his pieces on how bad MSNBC and CNN are and his interviews with Aaron Mate aren't bad.
     
     
  #4527  
Old Posted Oct 21, 2019, 2:34 AM
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I love the Rick Perry and Mitt Romney phone calls.
     
     
  #4528  
Old Posted Oct 21, 2019, 2:37 AM
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Nanos final poll in for today (800 people)

CPC= 32.5%
LPC= 31.7%
NDP= 20.8%
BLOC= 7.2%
GREEN= 6.0%

Looks like a Conservative minority based off my top 3 pollsters Leger, Nanos and Ipsos. All three showing a Conservative edge.
     
     
  #4529  
Old Posted Oct 21, 2019, 2:40 AM
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New FORUM Poll Just Out..... (Oct 20th, 1200 people)

LPC= 31.7%
CPC= 29.9%
NDP= 17.5%
BLOC= 9.0%
GREEN= 8.3%
PPC= 3%

We expect a minority parliament with the Liberals winning 140 seats, and the Conservatives winning 111. The NDP project to win 38, the BQ to win 48, and the Greens to win 1.
     
     
  #4530  
Old Posted Oct 21, 2019, 2:43 AM
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Originally Posted by travis3000 View Post
Nanos final poll in for today (800 people)

CPC= 32.5%
LPC= 31.7%
NDP= 20.8%
BLOC= 7.2%
GREEN= 6.0%

Looks like a Conservative minority based off my top 3 pollsters Leger, Nanos and Ipsos. All three showing a Conservative edge.
that's a decent surge to 21% for the NDP this weekend from 18% over the week
     
     
  #4531  
Old Posted Oct 21, 2019, 2:44 AM
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that's a decent surge to 21% for the NDP this weekend from 18% over the week
MOE is 3.6% so it could be static. Small sample size.
     
     
  #4532  
Old Posted Oct 21, 2019, 2:46 AM
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I think the recession that will likely hit in 2020 has the potential to change the political alignment in this country with the amount of debt every household has in Canada and easy credit/ low interest rates that has been going on since the 90's it could be far worse than the 2008 recession.
Household debt is definitely an issue but what about having our government having the courage to regulate and control banks and lenders much better?

There will eventually be a recession but I do think that Canada will have the ability to handle it better than many other countries. Our deficits have actually been quite low and there is definitely room for spending to reduce the downturn's effects. The biggest danger is if interest rates were to rise a lot. I remember the 1990-92 recession which was really bad with high interest rates, high unemployment and a federal government more interested in constitutional affairs. I think our government knows better today whether it is Liberal or Conservative.

This is just a guess but I think that BC will be hit the hardest next time a recession occurs.
     
     
  #4533  
Old Posted Oct 21, 2019, 2:47 AM
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Too.....many......polls........

My head hurts.

The only poll that really matters to me of course is tomorrows ballot in Moncton/Riverview/Dieppe, and I already know that my vote is a wasted vote. My riding is a "trained seal" Liberal safe constituency.
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  #4534  
Old Posted Oct 21, 2019, 2:50 AM
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Canada's govt debt numbers are not bad but the household one's are some of the worst in the world. I am baffled at how long the era of super low interest rates have lasted and I fear what might happen if they rose to levels in the Mulroney era or Pierre Trudeau era it would be devastating.
     
     
  #4535  
Old Posted Oct 21, 2019, 3:02 AM
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Canada's govt debt numbers are not bad but the household one's are some of the worst in the world. I am baffled at how long the era of super low interest rates have lasted and I fear what might happen if they rose to levels in the Mulroney era or Pierre Trudeau era it would be devastating.
I agree, our debt to GDP ratio is pretty good, but that misses the point.

We've been living through an extended period of economic growth, ever since the end of the Great Recession about a decade ago. The government should have been using this time to run surpluses, and to prepare for the next economic downturn, which will likely happen in the next 1-2 years.

It is frankly unconscionable for the government to rack up billions of dollars of additional debt during the good times. We should be reserving our capacity for deficit spending for when the next recession hits.

Instead, our ~$25B annual deficit will mushroom to $50-60B as we try to provide stimulus during the next downturn. This could even inflate to $80B or so if the LIB plow ahead with their lavish planned spending on additional social programs.

This is just not economically sustainable.
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  #4536  
Old Posted Oct 21, 2019, 3:18 AM
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Originally Posted by MonctonRad View Post
Too.....many......polls........

My head hurts.

The only poll that really matters to me of course is tomorrows ballot in Moncton/Riverview/Dieppe, and I already know that my vote is a wasted vote. My riding is a "trained seal" Liberal safe constituency.
I'm in Chrystia Freeland's riding. At least I get to vote at Hart House at U of T this time ... I always get interesting polling locations. Last time it was in the stunning new addition to the Royal Conservatory of Music. But there is no chance for anyone other than the Liberals. I did vote for Freeland last time but not this time.

I have a few old acquaintances running - Erin O'Toole and Nick Whalen running for re-election - both very fine people; Catherine McKenna was a colleague in the 1990s although I only vaguely remember her; Vancouver Island candidates Byron Horner and Dave Merner I knew a bit in law school. It's good to remember that the candidates for all parties are real people and that the great majority of them are well-intentioned and capable.
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  #4537  
Old Posted Oct 21, 2019, 3:20 AM
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I agree, our debt to GDP ratio is pretty good, but that misses the point.
It doesn't miss the point, it's literally the only reasonable economic measure of whether or not our debt is in a good spot. You can argue where it "should" be, but it's in the best spot it's been for decades or more.

What indication is there that interest rates will rise at all? None, really. Recession will lead to rate reductions.

I'm not a huge fan of deficits, but from a government perspective we are still in a very reasonable place. Households are another matter. Both the Cons and Libs are planning to goose the housing market. The Cons removing the current mortgage qualification requirements is probably the worst.
     
     
  #4538  
Old Posted Oct 21, 2019, 3:22 AM
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I agree, our debt to GDP ratio is pretty good, but that misses the point.

We've been living through an extended period of economic growth, ever since the end of the Great Recession about a decade ago. The government should have been using this time to run surpluses, and to prepare for the next economic downturn, which will likely happen in the next 1-2 years.

It is frankly unconscionable for the government to rack up billions of dollars of additional debt during the good times. We should be reserving our capacity for deficit spending for when the next recession hits.

Instead, our ~$25B annual deficit will mushroom to $50-60B as we try to provide stimulus during the next downturn. This could even inflate to $80B or so if the LIB plow ahead with their lavish planned spending on additional social programs.

This is just not economically sustainable.
Debt isn't always a bad thing. If the money is well spent then it can actually be a wise investment.

So many people were bitching about Ontario's debt but our province actually put money into things, actual infrastructure that will allow for more economic growth and a better qualify of life. You don't see other provinces with the level of service that Ontario offers in so many things and our highways, schools and hospitals tend to be in better shape that elsewhere in Canada. And we have a Conservative government that is spending more than the previous Liberal one. If out debt to GDP ratio was ballooning then it's time to worry and take action.
     
     
  #4539  
Old Posted Oct 21, 2019, 3:26 AM
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Debt isn't always a bad thing. If the money is well spent then it can actually be a wise investment.

So many people were bitching about Ontario's debt but our province actually put money into things, actual infrastructure that will allow for more economic growth and a better qualify of life. You don't see other provinces with the level of service that Ontario offers in so many things and our highways, schools and hospitals tend to be in better shape that elsewhere in Canada. And we have a Conservative government that is spending more than the previous Liberal one. If out debt to GDP ratio was ballooning then it's time to worry and take action.
Ontario has the second lowest levels of income tax in Canada, and average taxes elsewhere. If we raised them just a bit, we'd erase a big chunk of the deficit.
     
     
  #4540  
Old Posted Oct 21, 2019, 3:28 AM
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Ontario has the second lowest levels of income tax in Canada, and average taxes elsewhere. If we raised them just a bit, we'd erase a big chunk of the deficit.
If Alberta had a PST all these years like every other province, they'd have a trillion dollar sovereign fund.

If a dog had wings it could fly.
     
     
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