Largest Counties By Votes for Biden and Trump, 2020

[dimondpark]

This is the latest count according to the New York Times.

Counties with 1 Million+ Population

Voted for Biden:
84.5% New York, NY
82.5% Bronx, NY
81.0% Alameda, CA
80.9% Philadelphia, PA
77.5% Montgomery, MD
75.5% King, WA
74.1% Kings, NY
73.0% Santa Clara, CA
72.9% Cook, IL
72.9% Contra Costa, CA
72.6% Fulton, GA
71.4% Travis, TX
71.2% Middlesex, MA
71.1% Los Angeles, CA
70.6% Hennepin, MN
69.9% Fairfax, VA
69.0% Queens, NY
68.0% Wayne, MI
66.7% Mecklenburg, NC
66.5% Cuyahoga, OH
64.9% Dallas, TX
64.6% Franklin, OH
64.5% Broward, FL
64.1% Sacramento, CA
62.3% Wake, NC
60.3% San Diego, CA
59.3% Allegheny, PA
58.9% Pima, AZ
58.2% Bexar, TX
56.2% Oakland, MI
56.0% Palm Beach, FL
55.8% Harris, TX
54.6% Salt Lake City, UT
54.5% San Bernardino, CA
54.2% Riverside, CA
54.0% Clark, NV
53.6% Orange, CA
53.3% Miami-Dade, FL
52.7% Hillsborough, FL
50.2% Maricopa, AZ
49.3% Tarrant, TX

Voted for Trump:
55.5% Suffolk, NY
51.4% Collin, TX
50.1% Nassau, NY

[Crawford]

Nassau will be Biden, and not particularly close. NY State has a large number of uncounted votes, overwhelmingly Dem.

But I can see Trump barely squeezing out Suffolk (the other, outer LI county). So Suffolk will probably be the most populous Trump county.

[Steely Dan]

Originally Posted by Crawford

Nassau will be Biden, and not particularly close. NY State has a large number of uncounted votes, overwhelmingly Dem.

But I can see Trump barely squeezing out Suffolk (the other, outer LI county). So Suffolk will probably be the most populous Trump county.

i did a double take when i saw nassau county shaded ever so slightly red on the results map. i was like "that can't be right. can it?"



and what's up with staten island?

+24 for trump!?!?!?!?

[iheartthed]

Originally Posted by Steely Dan

i did a double take when i saw nassau county shaded ever so slightly red on the results map. i was like "that can't be right. can it?"



and what's up with staten island?

+24 for trump!?!?!?!?

A lot of NYPD lives there, as well as ethnicities that skew Republican. There was a very contentious house race for a district that covers southern Brooklyn and SI. Last I checked, the margin was similar in favor of the Republican challenger.

[Steely Dan]

Originally Posted by Crawford

Nassau will be Biden, and not particularly close.

and as expected, it just switched this afternoon.

a big vote dump came in for nassau county and now it's ever so slightly blue.


Nassau County:

biden - 49.6%

trump - 49.1%

est. 91% reporting



so that means trump only won 2 of the nation's 1M+ counties: suffolk county on eastern long island and collin county in metro dallas (and neither of those are likely to change at this point).

[Centropolis]

st. louis county was 61% biden. doesn’t include st. louis city which was 82%, and must not be over 1,000,000 anymore.

[Steely Dan]

Originally Posted by Centropolis

st. louis county...... must not be over 1,000,000 anymore.

yeah, it's now fallen just below that threshold after poking above it in census 2000.

it was 998,954 in 2010, and is now estimated to be 994,205, so pretty damn close.


___________________________________________________________



i posted the data below in the election thread in CE, but that thread is primarily a cesspool of axe-grinding stupidity, so we can probably have a more interesting discussion here, as long as people keep this STRICTLY about data without the usual BS.



Cook county (chicago + inner burbs) is solidly blue, downstate is solidly red, and they kind of counterbalance each other.

The four main chicagoland collar counties of dupage, lake, will, and kane are where the tipping point usually occurs.

Cook county is far and away the largest county in illinois (5.2M people), but the 4 main collar counties are numbers 2 - 5 in illinois, and together total around 2.8M people.

A generation or two ago they were typically republican strongholds ("the dems might have cook, but we've got 'em by the collars"), but now???


Check this out:

Lake County (696,535 people): +20 biden
Dupage County (922,921 people): +18 biden*
Kane County (532,403 people): +14 biden
Will County (690,743 people): +8 biden

And all of them got bluer vs. 2016

And the vast bulk of downstate got redder (outside of a handful of college town counties)

illinois' two worlds keep drifting ever further away from each other.



(*) from 1916 - 2004, dupage county had gone republican in every single presidential election. hometown hero obama finally flipped it twice in 2008 & 2012, and hillary (who was born and raised in chicagoland) also won it in 2016, but biden is the 1st non-republican candidate without any illinois ties to win dupage county in over a century, and by 18 freaking points, no less!

[Docere]

Originally Posted by Steely Dan

Check this out:

Lake County (696,535 people): +20 biden
Dupage County (922,921 people): +18 biden*
Kane County (532,403 people): +14 biden
Will County (690,743 people): +8 biden

Lake and DuPage are your classic affluent Republican turned Democratic suburbs. Obviously Obama over-performed and Trump was a terible fit.

[Crawford]

SI is shocking. SI is about 1/3 nonwhite, too. And few Orthodox Jews. And half the borough has a very liberal city nonwhite councilmember, who gets easily reelected.

SI is probably the most Italian and Russian/former Soviet County in the U.S. Those demographics, almost certainly, went massively for Trump.

I suspect NYT will have census tract level data shortly, so we'll see. The southern shoreline of SI, along Hylan Blvd., is the most Italian-Russian corridor, so that corridor should be deep red.

[mrnyc]

theres actually not that much to staten island. especially in comparison to the other boros. its like a repub suburb thats all.

[pj3000]

Originally Posted by Steely Dan

Cook county (chicago + inner burbs) is solidly blue, downstate is solidly red, and they kind of counterbalance each other.

The four main chicagoland collar counties of dupage, lake, will, and kane are where the tipping point usually occurs.

Cook county is far and away the largest county in illinois (5.2M people), but the 4 main collar counties are numbers 2 - 5 in illinois, and together total around 2.8M people.

A generation or two ago they were typically republican strongholds ("the dems might have cook, but we've got 'em by the collars"), but now???


Check this out:

Lake County (696,535 people): +20 biden
Dupage County (922,921 people): +18 biden*
Kane County (532,403 people): +14 biden
Will County (690,743 people): +8 biden

And all of them got bluer vs. 2016

(*) from 1916 - 2004, dupage county had gone republican in every single presidential election. hometown hero obama finally flipped it twice in 2008 & 2012, and hillary (who was born and raised in chicagoland) also won it in 2016, but biden is the 1st non-republican candidate without any illinois ties to win dupage county in over a century, and by 18 freaking points, no less!

illinois' two worlds keep drifting ever further away from each other.

I've been nerdily clicking through state/county election maps over the past week now, and this data provide is really a telling display of the situation around the larger urban locations (which have "collar" counties) in our country.

And what I find fascinating is that, in general, in the smaller and small metro areas, the pattern is remarkably the same... just on smaller scale, and showing the voting pattern differences within the metro's main county... meaning the city and near suburban precincts solidly blue, then getting more purple as you move away from the core, and then of course, solidly red (all within the same county).

Which is why looking just at county-level data, and assigning blue or red, isn't all that informative in smaller metros, especially when only 1,000 votes or less very often determine its red or blue classification.

Originally Posted by Crawford

SI is shocking. SI is about 1/3 nonwhite, too. And few Orthodox Jews. And half the borough has a very liberal city nonwhite councilmember, who gets easily reelected.

SI is probably the most Italian and Russian/former Soviet County in the U.S. Those demographics, almost certainly, went massively for Trump.

I suspect NYT will have census tract level data shortly, so we'll see. The southern shoreline of SI, along Hylan Blvd., is the most Italian-Russian corridor, so that corridor should be deep red.

Yeah, I noted Staten Island on the maps, as well.

What the hell is with Italian-Americans' voting preferences anyway? And how is it still that strong of characteristic of an ethnic immigrant group that has been here for a very long time. What is with that right wingy attitude?

I see it emerging among many friends who I grew up with, and who now seem to be turning into their grandfathers... it's like they love that Mussolini shit or something.

I'm half expecting them to start wearing velour track suits, big glasses, and velcro shoes and start hanging out playing barbut and eating tripe together.

Anyway, not trying to sidetrack it, but it would be very interesting to see the voting data in cities broken down by ethnic origin... like is there still consistency within immigrant groups who came to the US well over a century ago?

[Steely Dan]

Originally Posted by pj3000

What the hell is with Italian-Americans' voting preferences anyway? And how is it still that strong of characteristic of an ethnic immigrant group that has been here for a very long time. What is with that right wingy attitude?

not being italian american., i don't understand it either, but my wife is 100% italian american and has deep italian roots here in chicago (she even has some mafia second cousins who've been whacked or done time in prison, but no direct contact with that "wing" of her family anymore), with a bunch of aunts, uncles and cousins who all live in the southwest burbs (palos/orland area), and from those whose politics i know, they're all aboard the trump train.

my wife is 100% the opposite of that, but i believe she's also the only person of her extended family still living within city limits. she had a few older hold-out relatives down in little italy/bridgeport years ago, but they've now passed on.

[MonkeyRonin]

There's a certain machismo to Italian-North American culture that may leave it susceptible to right wing populist "strongmen" leaders. It's probably for that same reason that Trump performed better than expected amongst Latinos as well.

Though I'm not sure how well that maps out onto Italian-Canadians (which are mostly post-war immigrants, and seem to be a bit less region-specific than the Sicilian-origin that dominates the US). My own family is very left-leaning, and in the GTA at least, Italians are pretty heavily tied into the Liberal political machine. Most older Italians can be expected to reliably vote for the same Italian Liberal candidates that they've been voting in for decades, but perhaps the younger generations would be more open to supporting a populist conservative though, should one ever materialize.

[eschaton]

New York State as a whole is still 18% out, and what's out (absentees) skew heavily, heavily D, so you can't draw any conclusions whatsoever about turnout or vote shifts in any of the counties yet.

When the dust is settled, it's likely the only states that shifted towards Trump in 2020 were Florida, Arkansas, Mississippi, and Hawaii.

[Crawford]

Originally Posted by MonkeyRonin

Though I'm not sure how well that maps out onto Italian-Canadians (which are mostly post-war immigrants, and seem to be a bit less region-specific than the Sicilian-origin that dominates the US). My own family is very left-leaning, and in the GTA at least, Italians are pretty heavily tied into the Liberal political machine.

Did Italian-Canadians generally support Rob Ford? I get that he isn't directly analogous to Trumpism, but wondering if there was some Italian-Canadian affinity for his "strongman" populist tendencies?

[mrnyc]

Originally Posted by MonkeyRonin

Though I'm not sure how well that maps out onto Italian-Canadians (which are mostly post-war immigrants, and seem to be a bit less region-specific than the Sicilian-origin that dominates the US).

this is not true at all. italian immigrants came to the lower states from all over it-lee, majority mezzogiorno, but not just sicily. more:

From the late 19th century until the 1930s, the United States was a main destination for Italian immigrants, with most first settling in the New York metropolitan area, but with other major Italian American communities developing in Boston, Philadelphia, Chicago, Cleveland, Detroit, St. Louis, Pittsburgh, Baltimore, San Francisco, and New Orleans. Most Italian immigrants to the United States came from the Southern regions of Italy, namely Campania, Apulia, Basilicata, Calabria, and Sicily. Many of them coming to America were also small landowners.[4] Italian Americans are known for their tight-knit communities and ethnic pride, and have been highly influential in the development of modern U.S. culture, particularly in the Northeastern region of the country. Italian American communities have often been depicted in U.S. film and television, with distinct Italian-influenced dialects of English prominently spoken by many characters. Although many do not speak Italian fluently, over a million still speak Italian at home, according to the 2000 US Census.

[Centropolis]

Originally Posted by MonkeyRonin

There's a certain machismo to Italian-North American culture that may leave it susceptible to right wing populist "strongmen" leaders. It's probably for that same reason that Trump performed better than expected amongst Latinos as well.

Though I'm not sure how well that maps out onto Italian-Canadians (which are mostly post-war immigrants, and seem to be a bit less region-specific than the Sicilian-origin that dominates the US). My own family is very left-leaning, and in the GTA at least, Italians are pretty heavily tied into the Liberal political machine. Most older Italians can be expected to reliably vote for the same Italian Liberal candidates that they've been voting in for decades, but perhaps the younger generations would be more open to supporting a populist conservative though, should one ever materialize.

since material politics are dead and labor organization has been gutted, we now just have the don’t be a pussy party (macho/masculine) and don’t be an asshole party (feminine).

[Crawford]

Originally Posted by pj3000

What the hell is with Italian-Americans' voting preferences anyway? And how is it still that strong of characteristic of an ethnic immigrant group that has been here for a very long time. What is with that right wingy attitude?

There's a likely distinction among Italian-American voters, though.

SI Italians are of relatively recent stock. They immigrated in the postwar decades, from Sicily and Calabria, mostly. They aren't the same as random Italian-Americans in South Florida or Central Jersey, who hail from the huge prewar European migration waves.

But, yeah, Italian and Russian-Ukranian immigrants/children of immigrants to the NY area are very, very Trumpist. Like rural Alabama-level Trumpist. And not particularly GOP (most of these areas have solid Dem representation at state/local level).

[JManc]

Originally Posted by pj3000

I've been nerdily clicking through state/county election maps over the past week now, and this data provide is really a telling display of the situation around the larger urban locations (which have "collar" counties) in our country.

And what I find fascinating is that, in general, in the smaller and small metro areas, the pattern is remarkably the same... just on smaller scale, and showing the voting pattern differences within the metro's main county... meaning the city and near suburban precincts solidly blue, then getting more purple as you move away from the core, and then of course, solidly red (all within the same county).

Which is why looking just at county-level data, and assigning blue or red, isn't all that informative in smaller metros, especially when only 1,000 votes or less very often determine its red or blue classification.



Yeah, I noted Staten Island on the maps, as well.

What the hell is with Italian-Americans' voting preferences anyway? And how is it still that strong of characteristic of an ethnic immigrant group that has been here for a very long time. What is with that right wingy attitude?

I see it emerging among many friends who I grew up with, and who now seem to be turning into their grandfathers... it's like they love that Mussolini shit or something.

I'm half expecting them to start wearing velour track suits, big glasses, and velcro shoes and start hanging out playing barbut and eating tripe together.

Anyway, not trying to sidetrack it, but it would be very interesting to see the voting data in cities broken down by ethnic origin... like is there still consistency within immigrant groups who came to the US well over a century ago?

It's not about Italian Americans but socioeconomics. Blue collar Italians will vote like any other blue collar group. I'm Italian, most of my family voted for Biden. But they aren't Paulie Walnut types either.

[mrnyc]

Originally Posted by JManc

It's not about Italian Americans but socioeconomics. Blue collar Italians will vote like any other blue collar group. I'm Italian, most of my family voted for Biden. But they aren't Paulie Walnut types either.

correct -- the fact is its functionally just a suburb of retired cops down there.

but seriously, its not all red, the staten island north shore is the dem area. and locally speaking they do elect true hardcore dem political heros, like the young max rose. and just, but tough as nails diane savino, who i know.

i work down there often, pre-pandemic anyway, i see things. anymore i cannot say though, omerta. j/k