How much more can New York City grow?

[Crawford]

Originally Posted by iheartthed

There is a ton of space for NYC to grow. Manhattan is still only 72% of its population peak. But I'm skeptical that the transit system can support +10M people in NYC.

Bingo. The transit system, more than anything, needs expansion and improvement.

Zoning can accommodate 10 million. And Bronx/Brooklyn/Queens still have huge capacity.

But Manhattan will probably never hit peak population again, because new housing units tend to be huge. When you're building 60 floor towers with 40 units averaging 4,000 square ft., you aren't adding much population.

[Sun Belt]

Originally Posted by the urban politician

Bring back the tenement

That’s coming. Anyone that thinks otherwise has their head in the ground.

It’s already occuring in some cities and the trend will continue eventually getting back to NY.

[caligrad]

I have to agree with others. NYC is far from any kind of "Peak" or "cap" and cities similar to it, Tokyo, London, Paris, Madrid, LA, Chicago, Mexico city, Shanghai, Sydney and etc (Global cities) will probably never reach a "cap" if they do it right.

NYC exploded for a number of factors but take away is subway network, i dont think it would be even half the size it is now. So, Yeah, NYC needs to pump billions into its current system and need to start expanding its system NOW. LA has the same problem, Our freeways are chocking the cities growth since they've been at capacity since the late 90s so the only way is subways and mass transit. I know some politicians gag at the idea of mass transit which is rarely profitable but keeping the major cities rolling requires it.

If NYC and other global cities maintain their Mass transit. There is no limit.

[chris08876]

The land is there to build. Tons of space outside of Manhattan in Queens/Brooklyn. Even the Bronx, while very dense, offers a lot of potential. On a side note, keep an eye on the Bronx. It's going to explode in activity.

Zoning is a big factor. Large swaths of Queens/Brooklyn need to be rezoned. If you take a look at East NY (Near JFK), that's zoning done right. A lot of units are rising there. This needs to be propagated to other neighborhoods throughout the boroughs.

The building environment is already here in the city, with the occasional NIMBYS doing their thing, but the city is pro-development and for the most part, the city administration is on board with it, and pushes for growth. Often, developers are limited by the zoning and FAR itself.

But the elephant in the room is transit. The city could support many more residents, but it won't be convenient or a fun experience for the residents with transit. IT could be done, but expect slow and crowded commutes.

I blame unions for much of the bureaucratic rubbish and ridiculous costs/schedule mismanagement or inflation. Transit does need to be fixed. Not just rail/subway, but the roads.

The highways in NYC are beyond crowded. The Belt Parkway and the dreaded BQE are just asinine. Stroke inducing commutes.

I think a mix of aggressive zoning, along with encouraging business outside of Manhattan is key. This way, NYC becomes a multi-nodal city. Some of this is occurring now with LIC, and DoBro. Also, building transit projects that don't involve unions so that shit gets done on time.

[jd3189]

Have you guys ever seen Futurama? Or Coursant in Star Wars? New York isn’t done yet.

[austlar1]

One can hardly wait.

[Qubert]

Originally Posted by jayden

Amazon bringing 25,000 jobs, Google making another billion dollar investment in the city in a months time.

Hudson Yards with 20 million square feet of office nearing completion, numerous other supertall office towers under construction/being planned. $100 million condos popping up around Central Park.

How much more can the Big Apple grow before it reaches it's cap?

When you have cities like Lagos or Delhi growing non-stop without the technological, democratic, or human capital that is available in the West I think NY can grow as much as she wants to.

[Qubert]

Originally Posted by chris08876

The land is there to build. Tons of space outside of Manhattan in Queens/Brooklyn. Even the Bronx, while very dense, offers a lot of potential. On a side note, keep an eye on the Bronx. It's going to explode in activity.

Zoning is a big factor. Large swaths of Queens/Brooklyn need to be rezoned. If you take a look at East NY (Near JFK), that's zoning done right. A lot of units are rising there. This needs to be propagated to other neighborhoods throughout the boroughs.

The building environment is already here in the city, with the occasional NIMBYS doing their thing, but the city is pro-development and for the most part, the city administration is on board with it, and pushes for growth. Often, developers are limited by the zoning and FAR itself.

But the elephant in the room is transit. The city could support many more residents, but it won't be convenient or a fun experience for the residents with transit. IT could be done, but expect slow and crowded commutes.

I blame unions for much of the bureaucratic rubbish and ridiculous costs/schedule mismanagement or inflation. Transit does need to be fixed. Not just rail/subway, but the roads.

The highways in NYC are beyond crowded. The Belt Parkway and the dreaded BQE are just asinine. Stroke inducing commutes.

I think a mix of aggressive zoning, along with encouraging business outside of Manhattan is key. This way, NYC becomes a multi-nodal city. Some of this is occurring now with LIC, and DoBro. Also, building transit projects that don't involve unions so that shit gets done on time.

I disagree that the city is pro-development. I think it's middle of the road between Chicago (build, build, build) and SF (Tear it down!!). A lot of activists who mask their antipathy to Capitalism overall with anti-development positions. Lots of "Landmark everything" types too.

Transit will never be solved under the current political rubric. If I had my way I'd hire French, German, and Japanese contractors to build/rehab subway infrastructure while the MTA can continue to run it. The politics will never allow that.

[dubu]

it would be strange with one city in north america thats giant. then the rest are kinda big. unless the city was in the middle of north america with high speed rail going to it. like eight spoke train lines.

[Hudson11]

plenty of room, but as other have said, transit needs more attention.

Cetra Ruddy's Staten Island vision

https://rew-online.com/no-idea-bold-...staten-island/



AECOM Tishman's Red Hook vision

https://www.bisnow.com/new-york/news...terfront-65119

[chris08876]

Originally Posted by dubu

it would be strange with one city in north america thats giant. then the rest are kinda big. unless the city was in the middle of north america with high speed rail going to it. like eight spoke train lines.

I kinda wish the U.S. had more "giant" cities. To be fair, its all great that NY gets a lot of things, and as much as a homer that I am for the place, I do kinda wish other places in the U.S. boomed on NY's level. I really do.

I'll give you an example. Philly... severely underrated and an amazing city. Offers a lot, and is close to all of the action being between NY and DC. That's one city that I wish grew at 5-6% per year.

I think history also has a lot to do with it, and why NY is a power center.

There is also an element of luck. Luck has a lot to do with it, and timing.

But at the end of the day, the U.S. as a whole is lackluster compared to our economic rivals. They build gleaming transit, we build half-ass and underwhelming transit solutions. You'd think with all of the riches, we'd be on our game.

I do wish the Feds invested more in urban areas. Our infrastructure budget is atrocious and an iota of the overall Federal budget. We also should get the Feds involved on a budget level in building housing. We could fix our housing crisis (name "X" city), but the urgency and will is not there.

[chris08876]

Originally Posted by Qubert

I disagree that the city is pro-development. I think it's middle of the road between Chicago (build, build, build) and SF (Tear it down!!). A lot of activists who mask their antipathy to Capitalism overall with anti-development positions. Lots of "Landmark everything" types too.
that.

No doubt portions of the city government are anti-development, like Manhattan Borough president Gale Brewer, but where it counts, the city council and mayor, are for building.

There have been times where its hard to push a project, but at times, some of the concerns are valid. Like affordable housing or "X" developer providing expansion to an existing station for more development rights.

I still think zoning is the key. If you give the private sector the parameters to build, things will get built. The sole goal of developers is to make profit. Forget all that bs about making it for the community, thats just PR stuff. Its all about profit.

If you provide that margin, they can invest more into a project as they will get better returns. Assuming the market is there and the risk is low (for financing).

[dubu]

young people like living in the city and theres more young people then any age group. theres millions of cities made by young people with cities skylines on yt. i think that game is boring, if had those mods then it would be fun but most have the regular game. kids these days are real smart though, i bet they can make a big city when they become 30.

[The Chemist]

If New York could fix the problems with its subway that I've read so much about, I don't think there's any upper limit to how big it could grow. But given how smoothly underground rail operates here in China operates (yes, being new helps a lot) I don't think I could possibly live in a city with as many issues with the subway that New York has now, much less if they were to add millions more people.

[10023]

Originally Posted by Hudson11

plenty of room, but as other have said, transit needs more attention.

Cetra Ruddy's Staten Island vision

https://rew-online.com/no-idea-bold-...staten-island/



AECOM Tishman's Red Hook vision

https://www.bisnow.com/new-york/news...terfront-65119

Staten Island could be a lot more developed than that. But it would need transit.

Red Hook will be underwater soon so that one is probably not a great idea.

[10023]

Originally Posted by Sun Belt

That’s coming. Anyone that thinks otherwise has their head in the ground.

It’s already occuring in some cities and the trend will continue eventually getting back to NY.

Zoning laws and accessibility laws (the ADA) make true tenements unlikely.

Once you have to build elevators and service elevators and fire stairs and the rest, it becomes economically inefficient to build broad, six-story buildings. The ADA is a big part of the housing affordability crisis in the more expensive cities.

[JManc]

My wife and I just got back from a few days in LIC. New York can grow a lot more and there's a crap load of development in the outer Burroughs.

[C.]

Originally Posted by 10023

Zoning laws and accessibility laws (the ADA) make true tenements unlikely.

Once you have to build elevators and service elevators and fire stairs and the rest, it becomes economically inefficient to build broad, six-story buildings. The ADA is a big part of the housing affordability crisis in the more expensive cities.

Would it be possible to build at the density of a tenement, but to code and with the modern conveniences? I don't see why not. It might have to be taller than 6 storys though.

[Crawford]

Originally Posted by CIA

Would it be possible to build at the density of a tenement, but to code and with the modern conveniences? I don't see why not. It might have to be taller than 6 storys though.

We already have that. Go to Hasidic Jewish neighborhoods:

https://www.google.com/maps/@40.7002...7i16384!8i8192

But most people don't want to spend big bucks on tenement-style living.

[M II A II R II K]

Not until there’s an elevated ramp system with automated pods and cars s not everyone has to be ground based