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  #221  
Old Posted Aug 15, 2020, 5:16 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Pedestrian View Post
The Empire (State) struck back today with yet another piece in the Wall Street Journal about the demise of Silicon Valley and how all the techies are fleeing:

Remote Work Is Reshaping San Francisco, as Tech Workers Flee and Rents Fall

Many if not most of the examples given are families with kids. Families with kids have been escaping San Francisco for many decades and it is nothing at all new. The city has long had more dogs than kids and probably more vets than prediatricians, more dog walkers than teachers.

Frankly, under COVID, there's nothing to do in the city. The restaurants, bars, clubs, concerts, sports, opera, ballet, symphony etc etc are all closed. I don't go out much these days not for fear of COVID so much as there's no place to go and nothing to do. The things keeping me here are (a) good, brisk summer weather, (b) a serious COVID response from government that has kept the infection rate low and © the ready availability of delivery for almost anything.

But when COVID wanes, I predict several things: (1) When all the fun stuff reopens, the city will again be the lure for new graduates and tech bros it has long been, (2) companies letting their workers work from home will rediscover the value of office brainstorming and cross-fertilization among employees and companies, (3) the people who ran to Phoenix and other places with "normal" North American climates will fondly remember how great it was to live in Northern California.

I've seen this all before, most relevantly 2000-2003. Except then while the fun scene didn't die completely as now, it just got dull. But then there came a new generation of grads and entrepreneurs and life went on with real estate climbing to new highs. The same articles about it all being over were written back then, but Stanford and Berkeley didn't shut their doors (thought they temporarily have this time) and kept pumping out smart kids with new ideas and there were still rich guys in Los Altos Hills with plenty of money to fund them and life went on.

Stanford is definitely cancelling in-person classes this fall, as of yesterday: https://www.stanforddaily.com/2020/0...ack-to-campus/
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  #222  
Old Posted Aug 15, 2020, 4:11 PM
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Originally Posted by craigs View Post
The people I know who haven't already left San Francisco (anecdote: the floor I lived on until March is now 75% vacant) are able to find fun things to do--biking the trails, picnics in Golden Gate Park, walks along the beach--but yeah, the rest of the fun stuff is shut down.

And with all the permanent closures of shops, bars, and restaurants, it will take a long time to fill all the vacancies after reopening. I mean, there were lots of vacancies even before COVID. It's going to be a long time before San Francisco regains its pre-COVID vibrancy, and I agree with the WSJ--it will never be the same. Que sera sera.
The Bay area should be fine over the longer run. Yes, there will be tech dispersion and slower growth, but there seems to be plenty of foreign companies and other investments coming in along with well educated people still migrating - even though it it possible there will be a net outflow. It seems that it may very well suffer NYC fate, with lots of business and people leaving and but some new ones arriving, especially international ones. NYC once was headquarters of over 150 of the Fortune 500, but it probably has no more than 50 now but plenty of other business and remains one of the world's economic powerhouse. To me, I guess it comes down to whether SF/Bay area will suffer the dramatic decline of Detroit, which was once an economic powerhouse. Beside race issues, which every major city has, I think Detroit's biggest downfall was it did not attract the foreign investment so it became mostly dependent on the fortunes of the 3 domestic companies which suffered as the foreign companies thrived. I don't think that is happening to SF/Silicon Valley - at least not yet.
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  #223  
Old Posted Aug 16, 2020, 7:08 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Pedestrian View Post
The Empire (State) struck back today with yet another piece in the Wall Street Journal about the demise of Silicon Valley and how all the techies are fleeing:

Remote Work Is Reshaping San Francisco, as Tech Workers Flee and Rents Fall

Many if not most of the examples given are families with kids. Families with kids have been escaping San Francisco for many decades and it is nothing at all new. The city has long had more dogs than kids and probably more vets than prediatricians, more dog walkers than teachers.

Frankly, under COVID, there's nothing to do in the city. The restaurants, bars, clubs, concerts, sports, opera, ballet, symphony etc etc are all closed. I don't go out much these days not for fear of COVID so much as there's no place to go and nothing to do. The things keeping me here are (a) good, brisk summer weather, (b) a serious COVID response from government that has kept the infection rate low and © the ready availability of delivery for almost anything.

But when COVID wanes, I predict several things: (1) When all the fun stuff reopens, the city will again be the lure for new graduates and tech bros it has long been, (2) companies letting their workers work from home will rediscover the value of office brainstorming and cross-fertilization among employees and companies, (3) the people who ran to Phoenix and other places with "normal" North American climates will fondly remember how great it was to live in Northern California.

I've seen this all before, most relevantly 2000-2003. Except then while the fun scene didn't die completely as now, it just got dull. But then there came a new generation of grads and entrepreneurs and life went on with real estate climbing to new highs. The same articles about it all being over were written back then, but Stanford and Berkeley didn't shut their doors (thought they temporarily have this time) and kept pumping out smart kids with new ideas and there were still rich guys in Los Altos Hills with plenty of money to fund them and life went on.
Yeah they are *HELLA* thirsty for the downfall of Silicon Valley-What else is new lol. At this point, I dont care-if saving lives means we drive the bay area economy into the ground-then so be it is my position.

We can rebuild the economy, but we cant bring the dead back to life.

As far as people leaving, more power to them. The median home price in SF jumped $200,000 in 1 month(that has to be a record)-to $1.865 Million-it's understandable that people want more for their money.
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  #224  
Old Posted Jun 20, 2021, 9:37 PM
RST500 RST500 is offline
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Largest Absolute # Population DECREASES in the Bay Area and Adjacent Areas:

San Francisco -14,773
San Jose -11,684
Santa Cruz -8,391
Berkeley -5,603
Albany -1,816
Milpitas -1,517
Santa Rosa -1,442
Redwood C -1,262
Hayward -1,177
Petaluma -634
South S.F. -595
Cupertino -588

Largest Absolute # Population Increases in the Bay Area and Adjacent Areas:

Santa Clara +3,445
Oakland +3,187
Tracy +2,740
Manteca +2,477
Elk Grove +2,088
Sacramento +2,047
Lathrop +1,697
Stockton +1,688
Mountain View +1,512
Rancho Cordova +1,329
Folsom +1,197 Fremont +1,107

Notable population changes between Jan '20 and '21 for Bay Area and nearby cities:

Albany: - 9.6% (lowest in Bay)
Berkeley: - 4.6%
Santa Cruz: - 13%
SF: - 1.7%
Oakland: + 0.7%
San Jose: - 1.1%
Lathrop: + 6.3%
Tracy: + 2.9%
Redwood City: -1.5%
Santa Clara: + 2.9% (highest in Bay)
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