Colorado Population Estimates - 2015

[DenverInfill]

Inspired by the Utah thread of the same name, here is the new July 2015 population estimates for the 24 largest cities in Colorado. They are sorted in descending order by the 2015 Est. population.



A few highlights...

• We already knew what Denver's 2015 population estimate was when the county totals came out in March, but we can now confirm that Denver remained the population growth leader for municipalities in Colorado, both in the past year and since the 2010 census.
  
  
• From 2014-2015, Denver added slightly more people than Colorado Springs, Aurora, and Fort Collins combined.
  
  
• Of the 24 cities in the list, Grand Junction in the #16 position is the only city not in the Front Range urban corridor, and it has experienced relatively minor growth, gaining only 1,792 so far this decade.
  
  
• Greeley became the 12th Colorado city to join the 100,000+ club.
  
  
• Denver's largest growth decade by numeric gain was the 1950s when the city's population grew by 93,353, mostly due to annexation. Denver is on pace to pass that total with the July 2016 estimates next spring, with still four more years to go in the decade and, of course, no annexations.

Additionally, when looking at the Utah table, what strikes me is how more evenly distributed population is across Utah's cities. Utah has 26 cities over 30,000 while Colorado has only 24. The range between Utah's largest city and its 24th largest is 160,386, while the range between Colorado's largest and 24th largest is 651,353. The number of Utah cities between 30,000 and 50,000 is interestingly large (13 of them).

[Cirrus]

Originally Posted by DenverInfill

Denver's largest growth decade by numeric gain was the 1950s when the city's population grew by 93,353, mostly due to annexation. Denver is on pace to pass that total with the July 2016 estimates next spring, with still four more years to go in the decade and, of course, no annexations.

Fascinating. It would be interesting to pull out the growth from DIA-adjacent land that just happened to have been annexed before it sprawled, to see how much is really infill.

[Cirrus]

Also, 18,582/year =
1548/month
357/week
51/day
2.1/hour

[CherryCreek]

And the fastest growing city in Colorado is . .. . wait for it.. wait for it.. wait for it......

COMMERCE CITY!!

Who knew????!!!

[DenverInfill]

Originally Posted by Cirrus

Fascinating. It would be interesting to pull out the growth from DIA-adjacent land that just happened to have been annexed before it sprawled, to see how much is really infill.

It definitely would be interesting.

[transistor]

Originally Posted by CherryCreek

And the fastest growing city in Colorado is . .. . wait for it.. wait for it.. wait for it......

COMMERCE CITY!!

Who knew????!!!

Its like the cheapest part of town to live in. Not surprising really.

[Sam Hill]

I'm pretty sure the part of Commerce City that's growing so fast is not the part we traditionally think of as Commerce City. It's the areas way out at the edge of suburbia that are technically incorporated into Commerce City such as "Henderson." It's hard to tell whether you're in Commerce City or Brighton when you're out there, because it changes back-and-forth every eight blocks.

[The Dirt]

I'd like to see it counted without Stapleton, too, since it's scale of development is more akin to annexation or massive greenfield development. Without it, you basically get Denver at the start of the Poundstone borders.

[The Dirt]

Originally Posted by Sam Hill

I'm pretty sure the part of Commerce City that's growing so fast is not the part we traditionally think of as Commerce City. It's the areas way out at the edge of suburbia that are technically incorporated into Commerce City such as "Henderson." It's hard to tell whether you're in Commerce City or Brighton when you're out there, because it changes back-and-forth every eight blocks.

I'm willing to be it's actually all of the Reunion greenfield sprawl. They have a ton of room to grow out there.

[DenverInfill]

We can try to make an educated guess on this...

Using my DenverInfill analysis here from June 2015:

http://denverinfill.com/blog/2015/06...15-update.html

... we had completed 6,273 units within the 1.5-mile downtown radius from January 2010 to (basically) July 2015.

Using a similar analysis from July 2014 here:

http://denverinfill.com/blog/2014/07...14-update.html

... we had completed 3,656 units within the 1.5-mile downtown radius from January 2010 to July 2014.

That means the number of new completed units added in the 1.5-mile radius downtown area from July 2014 to July 2015 was 2,617 (6,273 minus 3,656)

According to the Census housing unit estimates also released the other day (http://www.census.gov/popest/data/ho...EST2015-3.html), Denver County added 5,310 housing units between July 2014 and July 2015.

2,617 is 49% of 5,310. Of course, my methodology and the Census Bureau's housing unit estimate methodology are different so there is likely a fair amount of error here.

But if we take these numbers to be roughly representative of reality, then we could state that approximately half of Denver's growth in total housing units (single-family through multi-family) is occurring in the Downtown area.

[Liberty Wellsian]

Originally Posted by DenverInfill

Additionally, when looking at the Utah table, what strikes me is how more evenly distributed population is across Utah's cities. Utah has 26 cities over 30,000 while Colorado has only 24. The range between Utah's largest city and its 24th largest is 160,386, while the range between Colorado's largest and 24th largest is 651,353. The number of Utah cities between 30,000 and 50,000 is interestingly large (13 of them).

I'm super jealous of the whole City and County of Denver thing. 13 of the 26 largest cities in Utah are in Salt Lake County. Every city has it's own plan for a "Downtown". They all compete for sales tax revenue(the municipality gets a share). It has its upsides but I would trade our political borders tomorrow for something more like what Denver has. That annexation in the fifties probably helped Denver more than most realize.

[Cirrus]

Originally Posted by DenverInfill

approximately half of Denver's growth in total housing units is occurring in the Downtown area.

Neat. It probably means less than half of the population growth is there, since I'd guess average household size is higher in the outer areas. But it's still a good number.

That said, I think it's fair to include Stapleton in the "urban" growth number. Obviously it's not downtown, but it is "infill," as opposed to, say, Green Valley Ranch.

[DenverInfill]

Originally Posted by Liberty Wellsian

I'm super jealous of the whole City and County of Denver thing. 13 of the 26 largest cities in Utah are in Salt Lake County. Every city has it's own plan for a "Downtown". They all compete for sales tax revenue(the municipality gets a share). It has its upsides but I would trade our political borders tomorrow for something more like what Denver has. That annexation in the fifties probably helped Denver more than most realize.

Being a city-county does have its advantages, politically.

Denver City/County is 154 square miles of which 54 square miles is Denver International Airport.

Of the remaining 100 square miles (what we think of as the "city" where homes, businesses, etc. are located), approximately half of that, or 50 square miles, is pre-WWII "old urbanism" neighborhoods characterized by walkable rectilinear blocks with alleys, etc., and the other half/50 square miles characterized by typical automobile-oriented post-WWII suburban development.

By comparison, Salt Lake County is 807 square miles.

It's interesting to contemplate how the non-airport post-WWII annexations in Denver, which allowed the city to go from approximately 50 to 100 square miles in size, has influenced the culture of Denver. What would Denver be like if we hadn't annexed the suburban areas from the late 1940s through 1974 and, instead, consisted today of only the "old urbanism" parts of the city?

[Sam Hill]

Originally Posted by The Dirt

I'm willing to be it's actually all of the Reunion greenfield sprawl. They have a ton of room to grow out there.

Oh, I see. I just looked up Reunion. I didn't realize that area was also Commerce City. Anyway, we're both basically talking about the same thing. All those patches of Commerce City way off in the sticks (far from the "city" part of Commerce City) are growing fast. I don't pay much attention to what's what out in the sticks, but my sister lives out there so I've been noticing all the growth and noticing that a lot of it is incorporated into Commerce City.

[DenverInfill]

Originally Posted by Cirrus

Neat. It probably means less than half of the population growth is there, since I'd guess average household size is higher in the outer areas. But it's still a good number.

That said, I think it's fair to include Stapleton in the "urban" growth number. Obviously it's not downtown, but it is "infill," as opposed to, say, Green Valley Ranch.

Right. Typically, the persons per household for the Downtown area is around 1.3, while in Stapleton and similar areas it's closer to 2+.

Maybe a nice generalization might be "Downtown is capturing one-half of the city's housing units and one-quarter of its population increase."

[Sam Hill]

I once read somewhere that once Stapleton is entirely built out, it will house up to 30,000 residents. That number has been stuck in my head ever since. Is that number wrong? Considering the fact that it's still got a long way to go before it's built out, we're not talking about very many people. What other greenfield development is happening within the city limits of Denver besides Stapleton? Am I missing something, or am I not understanding the definition of the term "greenfield development?"

[The Dirt]

That's about what I've heard, as well. Keep in mind that while Stapleton covers a huge area, residential uses are not all that's there. A huge portion of it is industrial warehouses, retail, offices, and parks. There's also a highway and freight corridor that take up a lot of room.

[Cirrus]

"Greenfield" means development on land that's never been developed before. Stapleton isn't greenfield, since it's a redevelopment of an old airport. It's kind of an odd duck. If I had to pick a colored field, I guess I'd categorize Stapleton as a greyfield.

[jhwk]

Originally Posted by DenverInfill

It's interesting to contemplate how the non-airport post-WWII annexations in Denver, which allowed the city to go from approximately 50 to 100 square miles in size, has influenced the culture of Denver. What would Denver be like if we hadn't annexed the suburban areas from the late 1940s through 1974 and, instead, consisted today of only the "old urbanism" parts of the city?

St. Louis County has 90 municipalities only one of which has a population of over 50,000 out of 1 million total. You can see how well that's working out for them...

Imagine 90 Lakesides, each attempting to support thier infrastructure with traffic tickets and court fees because they've stolen all the retail development from neighbors with TIFs in a circular firing squad to zero tax revenue.

[COtoOC]

Originally Posted by jhwk

St. Louis County has 90 municipalities only one of which has a population of over 50,000 out of 1 million total. You can see how well that's working out for them...

Imagine 90 Lakesides, each attempting to support thier infrastructure with traffic tickets and court fees because they've stolen all the retail development from neighbors with TIFs in a circular firing squad to zero tax revenue.

lol! I've been to STL many times and was always amazed by how many small cities there were that make up the metro area.