Demographic impact of urban exodus

[Handro]

Originally Posted by iheartthed

I can say with 100% confidence that humanity would not accept COVID-19 as a permanent plague on human life. There will very likely be a vaccine by this time next year. At the very least, there will be an effective treatment. Because of that, the cynicism about the future of cities is probably way off. So many things would have to go wrong for humans to abandon cities that its pretty inconceivable to me.

Exactly, there have been significantly worse pandemics in human history (even relatively recently) and we still live in cities and run businesses and everything else. Imagine if COVID were three times more contagious and 100 times more deadly and the main symptom was hideous, painful boils covering your entire body? COVID is pretty damn mild compared to what many of our ancestors endured while still managing to progress civilization. The human race will be fine and in 2025 daily life will be at least extremely close (i.e., everything the same except for more remote work, fewer handshakes), if not identical, to how it was in 2019.

[eschaton]

Originally Posted by Crawford

Because NYC has three white ethnic demographic typologies rarely found elsewhere: Orthodox Jews, former Soviets and Italian-Americans with recent Italian roots. These are the Trumpy neighborhoods.

Are the Italian-American neighborhoods really that recent at this point? IIRC the last big wave ended in the early 1960s, which would mean basically everyone not a senior citizen is a second/third generation Italian-American.

Originally Posted by JManc

I'm not talking about police brutality or racial fears but more long term social/ political instability.

Then you're going to have to elaborate, because I have no idea what you're talking about.

[Crawford]

Originally Posted by eschaton

Are the Italian-American neighborhoods really that recent at this point? IIRC the last big wave ended in the early 1960s, which would mean basically everyone not a senior citizen is a second/third generation Italian-American.

The last Italian wave to NYC ended in the late 1970's. NY still received heavy Italian migration well into the 70's. In fact Bensonhurst was a Jewish community in the 1950's and 60's, and the present South Brooklyn Italian identity wasn't formed until the 1970's.

They're distinct from Italian-American assimilated identity in the rest of the country, in that grandma is from Italy, Italian is still spoken in the house, and the community is still an identifiable enclave. The earlier, larger waves have long since assimilated and moved to the suburbs (or NC, FL, etc.).

But obviously this identity is losing relevance over time, as the communities shrink. The real driver of Outer Borough Trump support is the religious Jewish community, mostly Orthodox, but also former Soviet.

And, unlike the Soviet and Italian communities, the Orthodox Jewish communities are ascendant. It's a young community with extremely high birthrates.

[craigs]

Originally Posted by iheartthed

I can say with 100% confidence that humanity would not accept COVID-19 as a permanent plague on human life. There will very likely be a vaccine by this time next year. At the very least, there will be an effective treatment. Because of that, the cynicism about the future of cities is probably way off. So many things would have to go wrong for humans to abandon cities that its pretty inconceivable to me.

Since you quoted me, I'll note that I am not 'cynical' about cities and I literally wrote that, even in the worst case scenario, our cities won't be 'abandoned.'

[iheartthed]

Originally Posted by craigs

Since you quoted me, I'll note that I am not 'cynical' about cities and I literally wrote that, even in the worst case scenario, our cities won't be 'abandoned.'

I was only responding to that one particular hypothetical.