The Big Atlantic Canada Statistics Thread

[mmmatt]

Originally Posted by JHikka

Are those building permits only for new builds or do they include renovations to existing properties as well?

Also, any sourcing on the info?

Edit - Source is here.

Seems like it's for all construction activity and not just for new builds:

"The value of planned construction activities presented in this release excludes engineering projects (for example, waterworks, sewers or culverts) and land."

Sorry J yes its from the StatsCan CANSIM tables relating to building permit values... I selected the data for "all types" of construction for totals.

As far as I know each municipality provides to StatsCan the total values of their approved building permits in each month which would have renovations as well. (except for those who choose to bypass regulations of course which happens everywhere for smaller type upgrades)

[mmmatt]

Originally Posted by PoscStudent

Amazing that St. John's was doing better than Halifax a few years ago and now it's below Moncton.

Yeah my thought exactly...obviously the oil price issue is having a big effect on development over there for now.

[MonctonRad]

Originally Posted by PoscStudent

Amazing that St. John's was doing better than Halifax a few years ago and now it's below Moncton.

Indeed, but the change in the relative position of St. John's vs Moncton is just as much due to an improving construction situation in Moncton as it is the oil collapse in Newfoundland.

I think that the construction industry in Moncton will remain strong for at least another five years, thanks in large part to the boost created by the new events centre. I firmly believe there will be at least a quarter billion dollars of new construction as a result of the downtown centre. Some of this is pent up demand that was unlocked by the announcement of the events centre.

Hopefully there will be a rebound in St. John's soon. Regardless of the future of the oil industry, St. John's remains the provincial capital, the largest city in the province and the economic engine of NL.

[mmmatt]

1 week away from 2016 census population data

http://www.statcan.gc.ca/daily-quoti...70201b-eng.htm

[mmmatt]

A new annual report StatsCan is putting out now is GDP at the CMA level...neat to see! It will always lag about 3 years behind release but still cool data

Here are the latest numbers for ATL CA

2013 GDP

Halifax: $19.2 B
St. John's: $12.9 B
Moncton: $6.6 B
Saint John: $6.5 B
PEI: $5.3 B

2013 GDP Per Capita (using 2013 population estimates)

St. John's: $61,693
Saint John: $50,781
Halifax: $46,829
Moncton: $45,706
PEI: $36,501

GDP data: http://www5.statcan.gc.ca/cansim/a26...ataTable&csid=

2013 population: http://www.statcan.gc.ca/tables-tabl...emo05a-eng.htm

[mmmatt]

Since I'm up late and bored tonight here is another for fun

Results of latest StatsCan domestic travel survey

2015 Visits

Halifax: 3,660,000
Moncton: 1,822,000
PEI: 1,414,000
St. John's: 1,008,000
Saint John: 915,000

CMA Data: http://www5.statcan.gc.ca/cansim/a26...pattern=&csid=

PEI Data: http://www5.statcan.gc.ca/cansim/a26...pattern=&csid=

[MonctonRad]

Originally Posted by mmmatt

2013 GDP Per Capita (using 2013 population estimates)

St. John's: $61,693
Saint John: $50,781
Halifax: $46,829
Moncton: $45,706
PEI: $36,501

Good stuff mmmatt.

The GDP per capita estimates are interesting.

The data is from 2013, before the oil collapse, so I imagine the inflated numbers for St. John's will be a whole lot different now.

The numbers for Saint John are no doubt buoyed by the heavy industry down there. Just imagine if Irving hadn't moved the shipyard to Halifax.......

Interesting that the estimates for Moncton and Halifax are virtually identical.

[mylesmalley]

Originally Posted by mmmatt

1 week away from 2016 census population data

http://www.statcan.gc.ca/daily-quoti...70201b-eng.htm

I'm almost too excited

Any predictions?

I'm doubtful that the Moncton CMA can repeat the 9.7% growth between 2006-2011, so we may not quite break 150k. However StatCan's estimate for 2015 was 148k and their numbers aren't generally too far off.

Does anyone recall if the CMA boundaries changed?

[MonctonRad]

Originally Posted by mylesmalley

Does anyone recall if the CMA boundaries changed?

Yes they did. The Moncton CMA added Hopewell Hill and I think one other area for a total of around 1,500 souls or so......

In some sense, the actual census numbers can be misleading due to "undercount". Many people think that the annual population "estimates" put out by Statistics Canada are actually more accurate.

[MonctonRad]

Just double checked. The Moncton CMA only added Hopewell, and this added 643 people to the CMA.

[MonctonianSentinel01]

Originally Posted by mylesmalley

I'm almost too excited

Any predictions?

I'm doubtful that the Moncton CMA can repeat the 9.7% growth between 2006-2011, so we may not quite break 150k. However StatCan's estimate for 2015 was 148k and their numbers aren't generally too far off.

Does anyone recall if the CMA boundaries changed?

I second that! Also very excited about the Census release!

Although I will give you hope!

1. We are still the fastest growing city east of Winnipeg.
2. I found that in the past StatsCan has underestimated Moncton and we have grown larger than the population estimates that they have given.

[JHikka]

Fredericton will definitely show growth. Fredericton CMA is guaranteed to grow with the additional added territory. I'll be interested to see if the growth continues in all directions (Burton, Stanley, Kingsclear) if it is becomes more prevalent in one direction or another.

Moncton will show growth. Adding Hopewell helps. Should be more gains made in Moncton area as a whole but less than the 9.7% growth of past census. Shediac should continue growth and i'm expecting sprawl beneficiaries like Salisbury showing growth as well.

Saint John should hold steady...adding Norton will help but i'm not sure if the central core population will maintain its trajectory. Growth in Quispamsis/Rothesay should be lower than 2011 based on home sales/construction.

I'm expecting continued growth in Woodstock, Hanwell, Hampton. Expecting some decline everywhere else in the province, in particular the Acadian Peninsula and Campbellton/Dalhousie.

[mmmatt]

I'm curious to see:

- Did Moncton "city" (CSD) become #1 in the province?

- Did Moncton "metro" (CMA) overtake PEI population?

- Did Moncton "metro" (CMA) advance in national ranking at all?

- Is Dieppe "city" (CSD) still the fastest growing in NB?

- State of urban/rural shift in NB (And Atlantic as a whole)

- Many other things! So excited

[Nashe]

I'm wondering when Moncton CMA will eat Shediac...

[JHikka]

Originally Posted by Vorkuta

I'm wondering when Moncton CMA will eat Shediac...

Whenever 50%+1 of Shediac commuters work within the Moncton CMA with 25% of them working within the core (Moncton City). It'll likely be realized in the 2016 Census with potential inclusion in 2021 or 2026. Once Shediac goes I imagine Beaubassin-Est/Bouctouche wouldn't be much further behind.

In 2011 Shediac (Parish) was sat within the figures required for inclusion in Moncton CMA (at least from what I can see). In 2011 more people living in Shediac (town) commuted within Shediac town for work than Moncton (City), so that will still be a few more census cycles away for its inclusion.

[MonctonianSentinel01]

Originally Posted by mmmatt

I'm curious to see:

- Did Moncton "city" (CSD) become #1 in the province?

- Did Moncton "metro" (CMA) overtake PEI population?

- Did Moncton "metro" (CMA) advance in national ranking at all?

- Is Dieppe "city" (CSD) still the fastest growing in NB?

- State of urban/rural shift in NB (And Atlantic as a whole)

- Many other things! So excited

My guess for your top 4 points is yes except for Moncton advancing nationally would be for next census but you never know! It's hard to say how Guelph has grown during the last 5 years.

[JHikka]

Originally Posted by mmmatt

- Did Moncton "city" (CSD) become #1 in the province?

- Did Moncton "metro" (CMA) overtake PEI population?

- Did Moncton "metro" (CMA) advance in national ranking at all?

- Is Dieppe "city" (CSD) still the fastest growing in NB?

- State of urban/rural shift in NB (And Atlantic as a whole)

- Almost certainly.
- Potentially.
- Unlikely. Guelph should continue its upward trajectory enough to stay ahead of Moncton.
- Probably, although it depends on how Kingsclear fared in the past five years.
- If current trends hold then 2016 will be the first time that NB's urban population has exceeded 400K. The rural population should continue to decline meaning that NB's urban % should increase from 53% to ~55%/~56%. This would mean a rural decrease from 48% to ~46%

[pierremoncton]

For stats nerds - the release: http://www.statcan.gc.ca/daily-quoti...70208a-eng.htm

[C_Boy]

Originally Posted by pierremoncton

For stats nerds - the release: http://www.statcan.gc.ca/daily-quoti...70208a-eng.htm

It's official...Moncton is now the largest city in NB

[David_99]

Moncton CMA only 144,810?