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Originally Posted by 1overcosc
Does not bode well for the PCs. The party needs to moderate or die. And all the front running leadership candidates are accused of associating with people who are too 'right wing nutbar' for Randy Hillier? Holy crap.
Obviously it's very early to be making these kinds of statements, but honestly, if the PCs don't change, it will be the NDP who finally dethrone the OLP dynasty and not until the 2020s probably.
The PCs are actually at serious risk of total death, just like they were back in the late 80s. Whether they can turn around like they did under Harris remains to be seen. This time, though, the turnaround will have to be the opposite process... moderation instead of polarization.
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It's a lose-lose proposition for the party. The base is all they have left, as 90% of the membership has disappeared since 2001. Mike Harris was very much moderate compared to what the base wants though...but it will get them nowhere outside the core rural ridings (which are losing even more clout in the next election). The gap between urban and rural these days is like a canyon, and it seems impossible to bridge.
Option 1: Focus on urban seats, become much more moderate with old school PC types, and turf the base. Finding the right voice for that is a big challenge, and then the initial result is losing the base. If the base forms a new party a la Reform, that party would likely force the PC's to play their entire game on Liberal turf as the rural seats would disappear instantly, and if the game is played poorly, they would be
virtually wiped off the political map. It may be the only path they have to forming government, but it would require gaining directly from the Liberals and sacrificing what they have now, and would be full of risks. Vote splitting likely wouldn't be a factor in urban Ontario as that new party would have very little support there, but would be an issue in some rural ridings.
Option 2: Continue to hold the base, even if they don't play as harsh, since there are about 20-25 seats they can rely on no matter what. However, making gains with that seems nearly impossible these days, with the Liberals pretty much having a stranglehold on urban Ontario. When even a John Tory-led party cannot break into urban areas without risking the base (and they had to fight to hold it in 2007), there is a big problem. Those 20-25 or so ridings are very different in makeup than most of the rest of Ontario. Even if they can find some culturally similar seats, they would be nowhere near government.