Queen's Park Politics

[eternallyme]

Originally Posted by vid

The most left wing people I know live in rural areas. Nolalu is practically the SSR of Finland relocated to western Canada.

That is so bizarre...in southern Ontario, the core areas of the major cities - particularly downtown and inner city Toronto - are the most left-wing. If Ontario had a Quebec Solidaire-type party, they would do quite well in those inner city areas (which are only a handful of ridings though).

[vid]

That isn't to say there are no left wing people in the city itself, it's just that many people in that village are legitimately communists.

[Innsertnamehere]

Oh rural areas definitely vote PC, but they are more typical free market types, not the libertarian small gov, super conservative you seem to describe.as always there are the few outliers with the anti wind turbine and the crazy "keep off my land government!" Signs out front, just as there are the communist and irrationally left wingers in cities. You seem to be taking the two extremes on both sides and comparing them.

[1overcosc]

Originally Posted by eternallyme

Rural areas seem to suffer a case of jealousy perhaps? Rural municipalities cannot afford anything close to the service that urban areas can do, and since they are used to it, they feel that everyone should have a much smaller government? Also, there may be a cultural aspect to it as well, and I don't want to get into it that much...but it is nasty.

As for the wind turbines? Rural residents seem to take the position that climate change is a scam and they are part of Agenda 21 which they see as wrecking their livelihoods to benefit the urban areas.

I think Ontario (and Canada?) has hit the point that urban areas and rural areas are so far apart politically that the gap cannot be bridged. Even urban Red Tories would be seen as socialists in the mind of many in rural areas. Yet in urban areas, the rural mainstream is seen as extremist.

That's a bit of an exaggeration. I've lived in both urban and rural Ontario and the line is more blurred than that.

Incidentally, are you from Eastern Ontario? That's where the urban-rural divide is definitely strongest. It's the only place where the reality you're describing is even remotely true. Even there, it's more of a case of the vocal minority drowning out the silent majority. Trust me, even in Lanark County--the stereotypical Hickland if there were ever was one--your average joe doesn't think that way. Gay pride groups have significant community support out there, for example.

Also that stereotype of urban voters being inherently progressive? Lol. Again, if you're from Eastern Ontario, you should be aware that urban Ottawa has a fairly right-wing culture especially fiscally. Yes, they vote large-L Liberal but what does that really say anyway. That progressive urban stereotype is actually kind of true in Kingston, where the overall public mood is actually quite leftist, and yet people still vote Liberal even though their own political views match up much better with the NDP. Go figure.

Incidentally, there's quite a strong environmentalist movement in rural Ontario. Also VERY strong anti-big business sentiment. A socialist political party could win over rural votes with the right strategy.

[eternallyme]

Originally Posted by 1overcosc

That's a bit of an exaggeration. I've lived in both urban and rural Ontario and the line is more blurred than that.

Incidentally, are you from Eastern Ontario? That's where the urban-rural divide is definitely strongest. It's the only place where the reality you're describing is even remotely true. Even there, it's more of a case of the vocal minority drowning out the silent majority. Trust me, even in Lanark County--the stereotypical Hickland if there were ever was one--your average joe doesn't think that way. Gay pride groups have significant community support out there, for example.

Also that stereotype of urban voters being inherently progressive? Lol. Again, if you're from Eastern Ontario, you should be aware that urban Ottawa has a fairly right-wing culture especially fiscally. Yes, they vote large-L Liberal but what does that really say anyway. That progressive urban stereotype is actually kind of true in Kingston, where the overall public mood is actually quite leftist, and yet people still vote Liberal even though their own political views match up much better with the NDP. Go figure.

Incidentally, there's quite a strong environmentalist movement in rural Ontario. Also VERY strong anti-big business sentiment. A socialist political party could win over rural votes with the right strategy.

Yes, eastern Ontario. Although I have lived in other parts too.

[waterloowarrior]

Tory leadership candidates courting 'nutbars', fellow MPP warns
http://ottawacitizen.com/news/politi...llow-mpp-warns

These people are too far-right for even Randy Hillier... PC Party needs to distance themselves from these groups.

[1overcosc]

Does not bode well for the PCs. The party needs to moderate or die. And all the front running leadership candidates are accused of associating with people who are too 'right wing nutbar' for Randy Hillier? Holy crap.

Obviously it's very early to be making these kinds of statements, but honestly, if the PCs don't change, it will be the NDP who finally dethrone the OLP dynasty and not until the 2020s probably.

The PCs are actually at serious risk of total death, just like they were back in the late 80s. Whether they can turn around like they did under Harris remains to be seen. This time, though, the turnaround will have to be the opposite process... moderation instead of polarization.

[eternallyme]

Originally Posted by 1overcosc

Does not bode well for the PCs. The party needs to moderate or die. And all the front running leadership candidates are accused of associating with people who are too 'right wing nutbar' for Randy Hillier? Holy crap.

Obviously it's very early to be making these kinds of statements, but honestly, if the PCs don't change, it will be the NDP who finally dethrone the OLP dynasty and not until the 2020s probably.

The PCs are actually at serious risk of total death, just like they were back in the late 80s. Whether they can turn around like they did under Harris remains to be seen. This time, though, the turnaround will have to be the opposite process... moderation instead of polarization.

It's a lose-lose proposition for the party. The base is all they have left, as 90% of the membership has disappeared since 2001. Mike Harris was very much moderate compared to what the base wants though...but it will get them nowhere outside the core rural ridings (which are losing even more clout in the next election). The gap between urban and rural these days is like a canyon, and it seems impossible to bridge.

Option 1: Focus on urban seats, become much more moderate with old school PC types, and turf the base. Finding the right voice for that is a big challenge, and then the initial result is losing the base. If the base forms a new party a la Reform, that party would likely force the PC's to play their entire game on Liberal turf as the rural seats would disappear instantly, and if the game is played poorly, they would be virtually wiped off the political map. It may be the only path they have to forming government, but it would require gaining directly from the Liberals and sacrificing what they have now, and would be full of risks. Vote splitting likely wouldn't be a factor in urban Ontario as that new party would have very little support there, but would be an issue in some rural ridings.

Option 2: Continue to hold the base, even if they don't play as harsh, since there are about 20-25 seats they can rely on no matter what. However, making gains with that seems nearly impossible these days, with the Liberals pretty much having a stranglehold on urban Ontario. When even a John Tory-led party cannot break into urban areas without risking the base (and they had to fight to hold it in 2007), there is a big problem. Those 20-25 or so ridings are very different in makeup than most of the rest of Ontario. Even if they can find some culturally similar seats, they would be nowhere near government.

[1overcosc]

I am curious as to how the party will navigate the tightrope. The next few years will be interesting.

[waterloowarrior]

I've read various people speculating that Olivia Chow should run for Provincial NDP leader. I am not sure how much traction she has in SW Ontario, but definitely think that she would help with NDP votes in Toronto, Ottawa, and Kingston.

[eternallyme]

Originally Posted by waterloowarrior

I've read various people speculating that Olivia Chow should run for Provincial NDP leader. I am not sure how much traction she has in SW Ontario, but definitely think that she would help with NDP votes in Toronto, Ottawa, and Kingston.

That would be a big risk. She's likely hurt them big time in the southwest and north, with no guarantee of urban gains (if a fear of the PC's agenda hits again).

The main reason she lost the Mayor's race is because she was blown out badly outside the core of Toronto. I see no reason why those electorally critical areas (including similar regions in the 905) would suddenly flip to her party if she was a provincial leader.

[eternallyme]

The question becomes - is there any way the Liberals can NOT win a 5th term in 2018? The boundaries become much, much more favourable for them.

[Dr Nevergold]

Originally Posted by eternallyme

The question becomes - is there any way the Liberals can NOT win a 5th term in 2018? The boundaries become much, much more favourable for them.

Wynne has to establish herself and now she has that chance. If she governs well, she'll likely be re-elected unless the PC's start nominating some traditional progressive conservatives. If the PC's keep nominating right wing airbags she'll probably win regardless.

If PC Ontario nominates a guy similar to Tory, they'll have a party that can govern and can compete (as long as said leader doesn't run on something stupid and divisive, like funding religious schools). It may not even matter if Wynne is strong, because if they nominate a progressive leader (even if he/she is centre-right) they'll instantly be in easy terms with voters since Liberals have held power for so long. Toronto's suburbs, and/or areas outside the old city, have consistently shown they're willing to vote for centre-right candidates and left wing candidates alike at multiple levels of government over different times. They are true swingers (pun not intended).

I'm not a PC supporter, but strategy wise its obvious that party needs a makeover, not a Hudak-redux. I'm centre-left, but I think Tory was the best choice out of what was available for Toronto mostly based on his transportation plans. If someone not inclined to ever vote PC can say this like myself, then there's hope for the PC party in Ontario if they stop running right wing nutbags. I'll never vote for them, but other centre voters will. The party tilted to the right with Mike Harris, swung back with a more progressive tory with Tory (although he campaigned horribly), then they surged as far right as they could with Hudak. They're going to need to do soul searching if they want to be serious about governing. No more common sense revolutions, no more anti-union extremists.

Until that time comes, its a broken party.

[1overcosc]

Originally Posted by Dr Nevergold

Wynne has to establish herself and now she has that chance. If she governs well, she'll likely be re-elected unless the PC's start nominating some traditional progressive conservatives. If the PC's keep nominating right wing airbags she'll probably win regardless.

If PC Ontario nominates a guy similar to Tory, they'll have a party that can govern and can compete (as long as said leader doesn't run on something stupid and divisive, like funding religious schools). It may not even matter if Wynne is strong, because if they nominate a progressive leader (even if he/she is centre-right) they'll instantly be in easy terms with voters since Liberals have held power for so long. Toronto's suburbs, and/or areas outside the old city, have consistently shown they're willing to vote for centre-right candidates and left wing candidates alike at multiple levels of government over different times. They are true swingers (pun not intended).

I'm not a PC supporter, but strategy wise its obvious that party needs a makeover, not a Hudak-redux. I'm centre-left, but I think Tory was the best choice out of what was available for Toronto mostly based on his transportation plans. If someone not inclined to ever vote PC can say this like myself, then there's hope for the PC party in Ontario if they stop running right wing nutbags. I'll never vote for them, but other centre voters will. The party tilted to the right with Mike Harris, swung back with a more progressive tory with Tory (although he campaigned horribly), then they surged as far right as they could with Hudak. They're going to need to do soul searching if they want to be serious about governing. No more common sense revolutions, no more anti-union extremists.

Until that time comes, its a broken party.

Pretty much. I don't see any moderates among the current leadership candidates though... for all the media talk of Elliott being more moderate I don't really see it.

My crystal ball:
-PCs choose another airbag leader (love that term btw)
-Wynne gets a second majority in 2018
-Wynne then retires ahead of the 2022 election (by which time she'll be 69 years old)
-In the 2022 election, Liberals are seriously fatigued from two decades in power and they have a rookie leader. But PCs are still airbags. Public resorts to reluctantly voting NDP and they win a minority government. In the following election likely held mid-term, Ontarians will either return NDP with a majority or put the Liberals back into power, depending largely on how the NDP perform during their first term.

[Dr Nevergold]

Quite the crystal ball. We shall see!

[1overcosc]

I'm not confident enough in those predictions to, say, put money on them because we all know how quickly things can change, but that's my best guess at this point

[eternallyme]

Picking someone too moderate runs the risk of them losing the rural base, with either the Liberals (via vote splitting) or a new right-wing party (a la Wildrose) making gains in those ridings. They would have to compete even harder on the Liberals' home turf then since they are starting from 0 seats basically, not 25 seats.

Look at John Tory and how he flamed out among them, ending his career with an embarrassing loss in a conservative stronghold. Also look at Mulroney in the early 1990s and how it resulted in the federal PC party self-destructing.

[vid]

No, a moderate PC party would draw the moderate Liberal voters when they jump ship because their own party is imploding.

The Liberal Party circa 2007 was not imploding, so a moderate PC leader didn't work because there were no centrist voters flocking to them.

The Liberal Party circa 2011 was imploding, but the lack of a moderate leader for either opposition party meant centrist voters had no choice but to vote Liberal.

And now, under Wynne, the party is re-building itself.

There are only so many rural seats for the PCs to win. They can't form government with them.

Honestly, with a weak NDP and much of the population opposed to generally right wing policies at the present time, I don't see the Ontario PC's governing any time soon, and I certainly don't see Harper doing very well in the next election.

[Docere]

It looks like the PC leadership race is basically a coronation for the "establishment candidate", Christine Elliott.

After the 2014 disaster running a "GOP north" platform, and over a decade being basically a rural and small town rump, the PCs want to appeal to swing voters in the suburbs. Right now their base is too narrow to form a government.

[Docere]

Originally Posted by eternallyme

That is so bizarre...in southern Ontario, the core areas of the major cities - particularly downtown and inner city Toronto - are the most left-wing. If Ontario had a Quebec Solidaire-type party, they would do quite well in those inner city areas (which are only a handful of ridings though).

In this hypothetical scenario, I'd say Parkdale-High Park and Davenport would be the most likely breakthroughs for an Ontario version of QS (maybe led by Cheri DiNovo?)