2020 Presidential Election Results by Top 50 MSA

[eschaton]

Yeah, from what I can tell the entire Cincinnati MSA went to the left a bit this cycle. Including the three Northern Kentucky counties. Campbell and Kenton in particular have been zooming leftward. Trump won each by less than 20 points, which makes them by far the least right-wing of the collar counties surrounding Cincinnati. Which actually makes some sense, because Covington and Newport are basically the only true satellite cities of Cincinnati, with legit urban cores which form a Democratic voting base. There's really nothing in Butler County, Ohio similar, other than the tiny black areas of Hamilton and Middletown.

Cinci's GOP lean has historically been pretty universal though. It can even be seen in city limits. Like, the closest things Cincinnati has to yuppie-track neighborhoods are 60%-70% Democratic, where similar neighborhoods here in Pittsburgh would be around 10% to the left of that. I believe part of this is because Cinci had a late-surviving GOP machine, which was only dethroned in the 1970s once white flight got bad enough the GOP no longer had an electoral majority within the city. As with other cities, the GOP machine basically just decamped to the suburbs.

[ChiSoxRox]

Originally Posted by Steely Dan

here's how the midwest's 11 MSAs over 1M people voted:

Chicago: +32.2
Twin Cities: +19.8
Cleveland: +14.5
Detroit: +13.4
Milwaukee: +10.0
Columbus: +8.0
Kansas City: +4.6
St. Louis: +3.1

Indianapolis: +2.4
Grand Rapids: +6.2
Cincinnati: +14.4


and some of other larger midwest MSAs in that 500K - 1M range might've gone red as well (dayton? wichita? youngstown? toledo? i'm looking at you), but i don't have time to check them.

Thanksgiving break for me, so I've got time.

Toledo MSA:
52.52% Biden, 45.75% Trump
Biden +6.77%

Youngstown MSA:
44.28% Biden, 54.35% Trump
Trump +10.07%

Dayton MSA:
43.41% Biden, 54.71% Trump
Trump +11.30%

Wichita MSA:
39.89% Biden, 57.78% Trump
Trump +17.89%

ETA: It looks like Boulder MSA was the second-most Democratic MSA in the country behind San Francisco.

[Crawford]

Originally Posted by edale

The city of Milwaukee is roughly twice as large as the City of Cincinnati. The trend of the blue, urban county surrounded by deep red collar counties is the same in both metros. But Milwaukee has a larger city and core county population, and Cincy's MSA is more decentralized, with larger suburban counties than MKE. Add in the rural differences described in this thread between northerners and Appalachians, and voila.

I don't think the city proper population is particularly relevant. Cincy is, by most measures, somewhat larger than Milwaukee. Milwaukee, unlike Cincy, annexed some postwar suburban neighborhoods, but I don't think that would translate to differing regional voting patterns.

I think the simplest answer works best. The Northern Midwest is just less Trumpist than SW Ohio, which borders Appalachia. Appalachia is about as Trumpist as it gets. Cincy's suburban fringe is still deep red, though less than in previous cycles.

[Steely Dan]

Originally Posted by ChiSoxRox

Thanksgiving break for me, so I've got time.

Toledo MSA:
52.52% Biden, 45.75% Trump
Biden +6.77%

Youngstown MSA:
44.28% Biden, 54.35% Trump
Trump +10.07%

Dayton MSA:
43.41% Biden, 54.71% Trump
Trump +11.30%

Wichita MSA:
39.89% Biden, 57.78% Trump
Trump +17.89%

ETA: It looks like Boulder MSA was the most Democratic MSA in the country.

Thanks!

nice work toledo. you surprised me.



Do you have time to do omaha, des moines and akron as well? my guess is they all went blue.

Together with madison and those others, I think that rounds out the 8 midwest MSAs between 500K and 1M.

[Crawford]

Originally Posted by Steely Dan

Thanks!
nice work toledo. you surprised me.

Toledo's closest cultural analogue is Detroit, so doesn't surprise me. If you drive a Jeep, it's probably assembled in Toledo.

Toledo is so Michigan that they generally root for U-M over OSU.

[jd3189]

Originally Posted by Crawford

I think the simplest answer works best. The Northern Midwest is just less Trumpist than SW Ohio, which borders Appalachia. Appalachia is about as Trumpist as it gets. Cincy's suburban fringe is still deep red, though less than in previous cycles.

Being in SW Ohio right now, I agree. Was driving through Dayton out of the airport yesterday and saw Trump signs several times on the highway. This place reminds me of the mid South so far. I will try to figure out in the next few weeks the Midwestern aspects since it’s also my first time in this part of the country as well.

[Steely Dan]

Originally Posted by Crawford

Toledo's closest cultural analogue is Detroit, so doesn't surprise me.

i guess i figured with smaller rust belt metros like youngstown taking a hard right turn that toledo would fall in to a similar camp.

but i'm glad to be wrong.

[ChiSoxRox]

Originally Posted by Steely Dan

Thanks!

Do you have time to do omaha, des moines and akron as well?

Together with madison and those others, I think that rounds out the 8 midwest MSAs between 500K and 1M.

Des Moines MSA:
52.13% Biden, 46.06% Trump
Biden +6.07%

Akron MSA:
51.42% Biden, 46.89% Trump
Biden +4.53%

Omaha MSA:
47.92% Biden, 50.59% Trump
Trump +2.67%

Douglas County *almost* manages to cancel off those blood-red Nebraska and Iowa farm counties.

Also Durham-Chapel Hill MSA is impressively blue:
72.97% Biden, 26.07% Trump
Biden +46.90%

But Boulder MSA (Boulder County by itself) is Biden +56.57%! The only counties I've found surpassing that are either reservations or in multi-million MSAs.

[eschaton]

Originally Posted by Steely Dan

i guess i figured with smaller rust belt metros like youngstown taking a hard right turn that toledo would fall in to a similar camp.

but i'm glad to be wrong.

Biden won Lucas County by a nearly 17% margin. The other three counties in the MSA are now red, but not deep red, and two of them are quite small (Looks like Ottowa and Fulton both had less than 25,000 voters).

[Buckeye Native 001]

Originally Posted by eschaton

Yeah, from what I can tell the entire Cincinnati MSA went to the left a bit this cycle. Including the three Northern Kentucky counties. Campbell and Kenton in particular have been zooming leftward. Trump won each by less than 20 points, which makes them by far the least right-wing of the collar counties surrounding Cincinnati. Which actually makes some sense, because Covington and Newport are basically the only true satellite cities of Cincinnati, with legit urban cores which form a Democratic voting base. There's really nothing in Butler County, Ohio similar, other than the tiny black areas of Hamilton and Middletown.

If I remember right, Campbell and Kenton counties went blue in the 2019 Kentucky Gubernatorial Election. I can't remember if Boone County did as well? I'm not sure how much of that was the candidates themselves (Beshear vs Bevins) but it surprised a lot of people around the Tri-State at the time that those two (or three?) went blue because for the longest time, they've been GOP strongholds outside of the cities of Newport and Covington.

[ChiSoxRox]

Intriguingly, Biden's margin in Polk County, Iowa (Des Moines) was very similar to Obama's margins when he won Iowa both times. But Trump wins Iowa due to just how dramatically rural Iowa has gone Trumper.

IIRC Obama won more counties in Iowa in 2008, than in any other individual state.

2008


2012


2016


2020

[edale]

Originally Posted by Steely Dan

i guess i figured with smaller rust belt metros like youngstown taking a hard right turn that toledo would fall in to a similar camp.

but i'm glad to be wrong.

Again, Appalachian influence seems to be the determinant. Youngstown is in Appalachia, Toledo is not.

[Steely Dan]

Originally Posted by ChiSoxRox

Des Moines MSA:
52.13% Biden, 46.06% Trump
Biden +6.07%

Akron MSA:
51.42% Biden, 46.89% Trump
Biden +4.53%

Omaha MSA:
47.92% Biden, 50.59% Trump
Trump +2.67%

thanks again!

so now we have all midwest MSAs down to 500K.



Midwest MSAs over 1M:

Chicago: +32.2
Twin Cities: +19.8
Cleveland: +14.5
Detroit: +13.4
Milwaukee: +10.0
Columbus: +8.0
Kansas City: +4.6
St. Louis: +3.1

Indianapolis: +2.4
Grand Rapids: +6.2
Cincinnati: +14.4



Midwest MSAs 500K - 1M:

Madison: +45.0
Toledo: +6.8
Des Moines: +6.1
Akron: +4.5

Omaha: +2.7
Youngstown: +10.1
Dayton: +11.3
Witchita: +17.9



so madison kinda stands out just a bit in that second crowd.

i'd love to see similar MSA breakdowns for the other 3 macro regions.

Originally Posted by edale

Again, Appalachian influence seems to be the determinant. Youngstown is in Appalachia, Toledo is not.

so what's Grand Rapids' excuse

[ChiSoxRox]

Originally Posted by Steely Dan

so what's Grand Rapids' excuse

The Christian Reformed Church in North America is the conservative branch of the Dutch Reformed Church in the US, while the more mainline branch is the Reformed Church in America-- and both are headquarted in Grand Rapids. There's a fundamentalist streak in the Grand Rapids metro by Midwestern standards, especially the western suburbs.

[The North One]

Originally Posted by Steely Dan

so what's Grand Rapids' excuse

They're high on Jesus lol.

[lio45]

Originally Posted by Crawford

Toledo's closest cultural analogue is Detroit, so doesn't surprise me. If you drive a Jeep, it's probably assembled in Toledo.

Toledo is so Michigan that they generally root for U-M over OSU.

This forum is the reason I know the Toledo Strip used to be claimed by Michigan, who was then IIRC forced to accept the (then perceived as less valuable) UP in exchange for accepting to let Toledo go to OH.

This kind of stuff (spontaneously permanently learning random facts like that) is IMO one of the great aspects of SSP

[pj3000]

Originally Posted by jd3189

Being in SW Ohio right now, I agree. Was driving through Dayton out of the airport yesterday and saw Trump signs several times on the highway. This place reminds me of the mid South so far. I will try to figure out in the next few weeks the Midwestern aspects since it’s also my first time in this part of the country as well.

Man, you can see Trump signs several times on the highway just about anywhere.

[BigDipper 80]

^ I saw a bunch of residual Trump signs all over the Antelope Valley recently. Even LA County is not immune!

[Handro]

Originally Posted by pj3000

Man, you can see Trump signs several times on the highway just about anywhere.

Not quite, after a 10 day roundtrip from Chicago to Maine and back last month (Chicago-Pittsburgh-West Point, NY-Providence, RI-Bangor-Burlington, VT-Syracuse, NY-Cleveland-Chicago) it was clear when we were in Trump country and when we were not.

On that note, it was extremely interesting to make a trip like that in the final month of a presidential election, especially in 2020. The Trump-Biden signs really highlighted total division between urban/suburban and rural/exurban.

[iheartthed]

Originally Posted by pj3000

Man, you can see Trump signs several times on the highway just about anywhere.

Over the summer Pennsylvania seemed to be saturated with Trump signs along the I-80 corridor. There were more there than what I saw in northern Ohio or southeast Michigan.