AUSTIN | ABIA Updates

[Digatisdi]

July figures have been released

"Total passenger traffic for July 2016 was 1,133,641 down 3% compared to July 2015."

It still seems like they're still not including Condor in statistics

[GoldenBoot]

Originally Posted by Digatisdi

July figures have been released

"Total passenger traffic for July 2016 was 1,133,641 down 3% compared to July 2015."

It still seems like they're still not including Condor in statistics

WOW! It's been years since we've seen a Y-O-Y decrease! I wonder why? Was there something going on in July 2015 which warranted and additional ~35,000 passengers to fly into and out of ABIA over July 2016?

January-July 2016 is now only up 6% over the same period in 2015.

[hookem]

Jetblue down 40% was probably due to the short-lived high frequency Dallas Love flights. United and Frontier were the other big declines, don't know why.

Still, growth should have offset those. Perhaps we are nearing a saturation level that will stick around until new gates are opened.

[the Genral]

I think more people take to their vehicles when the gas prices are low as they were this summer. A friend of mine drove to New Orleans when he usually flys, same for another friend who decided to drive to St. Louis instead of flying. And my boss took to the streets this past July with family of 9 and two cars to Orlando because she said it was way cheaper than flying. Maybe this is a factor which could affect the August numbers also.

[ATXPhil]

90%+ of the planes that fly into ABIA are Boeing 737's, Airbus A320's, Airbus A319's, and McDonnell Douglas MD-80's. All four of these plane types usually accommodate 150 passengers or less. There are even some Regional jets flown into ABIA by American Airlines and United Airlines that seat less than 100 passengers. The only larger aircraft to fly in that I know of is the 787 & 777 operated by British Airways to London-Heathrow and a 757 flown by Delta Airlines to Atlanta. ABIA may be at capacity as far as gates go (and near capacity on number of flights that can be serviced) but the airport is not at a saturation level in terms of passengers because any airlines other than Southwest, Frontier and Allegiant can opt to fly larger aircraft on the same routes, provided that the security checkpoints and ticketing counters could keep pace with increased passenger traffic. (Southwest fleet consists ONLY of 737's, same goes for Frontier, and Allegiant only flies MD-80's and A-320's I believe). For example, if United opted to fly a 757 on their Denver to Austin route instead of the 737 they typically fly, the 757 would accommodate roughly 200 passengers instead of 140-150 while taking up that same gate space and same route. Same goes for American, Delta, Alaskan, etc.

I would agree with Genral's point that gasoline costs are most definitely a factor, but I would also couple that with the fact that EVERY airline has dramatically increased their fares into and out of ABIA over the last several years. The only market I know of where you can consistently get a ticket for less than $100 each way is Denver. That is because United has a hub there, as does Frontier, and Southwest also competes with several flights a day. I believe it is the only airport in which 3 different carriers compete for fares out of ABIA. Most markets only have one carrier that offers direct flights into ABIA, with several that have two (Phoenix Sky Harbor, New York JFK, Chicago O'Hare, Las Vegas McCarran, Atlanta Hartfield, Seattle-Tacoma Int'l, and Los Angeles LAX are the only ones I know of that have two competitors into the same airport). The airlines have gotten spoiled by higher than average margins flying into ABIA. If this trend continues though I guarantee we'll start seeing some cheaper fares again.

[Jdawgboy]

It was bound to happen sooner or later, although I am a little surprised it was July and not a typically less busy month. I'm a little curious on how the other Texas ports faired and whether they also saw a slight drop or if it was just ABIA?

Other than what ATXPhil and The Genral mentioned as likely reasons, I don't see any other factors with our economy and growth that would warrant a continued decrease or leveling off unless I'm missing something.

[wwmiv]

Originally Posted by Jdawgboy

It was bound to happen sooner or later

Yep, statistically speaking it was going to happen eventually.

[Austin1971]

S

[Digatisdi]

I mean I can't help but wonder both what Condor's numbers would've done to affect this result, and also why the numbers for Condor aren't being included.

[Jdawgboy]

Originally Posted by Austin1971

Southwest computer glitch and weather were the main factors for the drop. Still with all that it was the third busiest in the port's history.

I was thinking about the Southwest computer glitch but wasn't sure if it was July or August when that happened.

[Digatisdi]

I think Southwest's was in July and Delta's was in August

[Jdawgboy]

Originally Posted by Digatisdi

I think Southwest's was in July and Delta's was in August

Do you think the August numbers could be down as well?

[LoneStarMike]

Originally Posted by Digatisdi

It still seems like they're still not including Condor in statistics

Condor had 3,743 passengers in July. Their totals are listed on page 15 of the Aviation Activity Report (pdf file)

[hookem]

Originally Posted by Austin1971

Southwest computer glitch and weather were the main factors for the drop. Still with all that it was the third busiest in the port's history.

But Southwest's numbers were only down 1.5% -- which I calculate as about a 6500 passenger drop.

Virgin's 40.5% drop accounted for more like a 10K passenger drop. But presumably those were AUS-DAL passengers that would have flown another airline instead, so that doesn't really account for it either.

[GoldenBoot]

Originally Posted by LoneStarMike

Condor had 3,743 passengers in July. Their totals are listed on page 15 of the Aviation Activity Report (pdf file)

Sweet...those are pretty full flights! Roughly 230 people per inbound and outbound flight.

[LoneStarMike]

Originally Posted by hookem

But Southwest's numbers were only down 1.5% -- which I calculate as about a 6500 passenger drop.

Virgin's 40.5% drop accounted for more like a 10K passenger drop. But presumably those were AUS-DAL passengers that would have flown another airline instead, so that doesn't really account for it either.

Comparing this July to last July:

United was down 15,715.
Virgin America was down 10,419.
Frontier was down 9,595.
Southwest was down 6,671.
Branson Air Express was down 628 (They operated last July but not now.)
Texas Sky was down 47.
Air Canada was down 38.


That's 43,113 for those seven airlines.

Also last summer American and US Airways were still reporting separately. AA had 190,147, US had 50,664, and Republic Airways (which operated as US Airways Express) had 185 for a total of 240,996 for the combined AA/US. This summer, everything's reported as AA and they only had 226,893 so that's a net loss of 14,103.

That brings the total up to 57,216.

Other airlines had gains, but they weren't enough to offset the losses by the airlines listed above.

[LoneStarMike]

Originally Posted by Jdawgboy

I'm a little curious on how the other Texas ports faired and whether they also saw a slight drop or if it was just ABIA?

All the linked sources are pdf files

For July 2016, DFW was down 3.4% Source

Dallas Love Field was up 1.55% Source

San Antonio was down 0.9% Source

Houston George Bush Intercontinental was down 6.5% and Houston Hobby was down 0.5% Source

BTW, even though the press release for Austin Bergstrom said we were down 3% for July and up 6% Y-T-D, the true numbers were down 2.76% for July and up 5.9% Y-T-D according to page 1 of the Aviation Activity Report

The press release always rounds the percentages up or down to the nearest whole number.

[AUS]

If my calculations were correct, the British Airways load factor for July was 91% and for Condor 90%. This assumes that no flights were canceled.

[N90]

Was it just TX airports that posted declines?

[Mikey711MN]

From http://ir.allegiantair.com/phoenix.z...le&ID=2205090:

Allegiant Moving Operations From Akron/Canton to Cleveland, Doubling Its Presence in Northeast Ohio

CLEVELAND, OH -- (Marketwired) -- 09/21/16 --

Allegiant (NASDAQ: ALGT) today announces it is doubling its presence in northeast Ohio by moving its existing service from the Akron-Canton Airport (CAK) to Cleveland Hopkins International Airport (CLE). In addition to the move, the company will offer area travelers four new nonstop routes to vacation destinations this winter. To celebrate this expansion in northeast Ohio, the company, known for its ultra-low fares, is offering one-way fares on the new routes for as low as $39.*

"We're very excited to announce this major growth in northeast Ohio, a region that has demanded more low-cost, nonstop service to the wonderful vacation destinations we serve," said Jude Bricker, Allegiant chief operating officer. "This move to Cleveland will allow Allegiant to have a stronger presence in northeast Ohio and allow us to offer our low fares and convenient travel to even more travelers."

"Not only are we pleased to have Allegiant as our newest business partner at Cleveland Hopkins International Airport, we're encouraged with the variety of destinations they are adding for our passengers," said Interim Airport Director Fred Szabo. "Of the 10 markets they will be flying, we are initiating service to four new markets and adding service to six destinations. This represents a big win for northeast Ohio and our region."

New service coming to Cleveland Hopkins International Airport (CLE) includes nonstop flights to:
- Austin, Texas via the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport (AUS) - begins Feb. 17, 2017 with fares as low as $44

No word on frequencies, but I'd guess it's less than daily. IIRC, the last time AUS had nonstop service to/from Cleveland was during the old Continental days!