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  #41  
Old Posted Jan 31, 2007, 4:18 AM
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and transbay terminal will be a better location for the terminus of HSR than Sacramento and then taking capital corridor to Emeryville and a Bus to San Francisco. Its all about convinience to the major business centers.
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  #42  
Old Posted Jan 31, 2007, 4:22 AM
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Originally Posted by J Church View Post
Yeah, I've pretty much given up on arguing with folks who are dug in.

Fortunately polls have shown a strong majority in favor of the project. We just need to get to a vote.

The latest poll I know of was the 2003 Public Policy Institute of California poll. Indeed, that poll showed a 65% approval. But the poll indicated the cost was $25 billion - the original estimate. And that was for a complete - SF-SAC-LA-SD - system. What their talking about now strictly LA-SF for nearly twice the price.

I wouldn't get too comfortable with a 3 1/2 year-old, $20 bil. less, two fewer cities served poll.
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  #43  
Old Posted Jan 31, 2007, 4:33 AM
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Comfortable, no. Confident, yes.

One point: Latest estimate is $37B for the full system.
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  #44  
Old Posted Jan 31, 2007, 4:37 AM
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Originally Posted by vizvalleykid View Post
and transbay terminal will be a better location for the terminus of HSR than Sacramento and then taking capital corridor to Emeryville and a Bus to San Francisco. Its all about convinience to the major business centers.

No, it's all about snow job to get the state's number three and four metropolitan areas to finance a HSR line between the state's number one and two metropolitan areas.

And newsflash - not all of the Bay Area's business is conducted strictly in San Francisco. You may not realize it, but some even occurs in the east bay. So if were going to limit ourselves to one centrally located HSR terminus for the entire Bay Area, the transbay terminal wouldn't be it.

Listen, I'm all for mass transit and HSR, but don't try to package this as benefiting the whole state. If we can't build all at once, those of us in San Diego and Sacramento are never going to see HSR unless we go to LA or SF.

No thank you.
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  #45  
Old Posted Jan 31, 2007, 4:40 AM
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I've given up arguing too. Some people just won't budge.

I do hope though, at some point, the naysayers take the time to understand the project and its myriad benefits, and realize that it is truly something that will benefit the whole state.
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  #46  
Old Posted Jan 31, 2007, 4:44 AM
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Damn... I spend some time to compose a response... follow-up on my own with some real action... and all these posts in the past hour!

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Originally Posted by innov8 View Post
If it's not going to Sacramento from the beginning... I'll be voting no. It will never happen other wise
How can one reason with someone when they are only willing to look at things in absolute terms? I am glad you're a comedian.

I have said it before on other threads concerning California High Speed Rail... if you support it contact your local state legislator to encourage them to take action. In this case it would be to encourage them to "fully fund the CHSRA request for $103 million in the proposed FY08 state budget."

Need help... don't know who your legislator is or how to contact them? Go to this site and type in your zip code in the area in the bottom right: http://www.legislature.ca.gov/

I just called my state senator and assembly person representing my zip code, 92103. And here's what I said:

Concerning the Fiscal Year 2008 state budget, I urge you as a member of the Assembly/Senate to fully fund the California High Speed Rail Authority’s request for $103 million, versus the 1 million proposed by the govenor.

This amount is small in the scope of the budget, but necessary to advance clean air efforts and the fight against global warming. It also dirupts the vicious cycle of more roadways equals more cars. Public Transit and High Speed rail is the future… it’s time the state gets on board.



In the mean time, here's a picture of the French TGV I stole off the internet someplace. Something to envision as November 2008 approaches.
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  #47  
Old Posted Jan 31, 2007, 4:45 AM
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Originally Posted by J Church View Post
Comfortable, no. Confident, yes.

One point: Latest estimate is $37B for the full system.

That depends on whom you ask. The Orange County Register recently suggested the cost was closer to $75 bil. You'll find that in a editorial from 6.14.06 titled "Taking taxpayers for a ride"

As more people start seeing those kinds of numbers for a strictly LA-SF system. And given the billions we've just approved in bonds for infrastructure costs... well, you just hold on to that confidence, it'll be all you have.
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  #48  
Old Posted Jan 31, 2007, 4:49 AM
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Sure, sure. Except the system hasn't been downsized, and the estimate hasn't doubled.

slock, they'll like it when it's built.
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  #49  
Old Posted Jan 31, 2007, 4:50 AM
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Originally Posted by william View Post
Attention HSR backers: This is how a lot of people feel.

If you can't overcome people in Sacramento and San Diego's legitimate scepticism, you are not going to see HSR in California. It's that simple.
I am in San Diego and I have spoke with a number of people.... the majority seem to want High Speed Rail. Many are enthusiastic about the potenital to ride from Escondido into Downtown San Diego. Many others that I have spoke to wish we had a system like what BART is in the Bay Area.
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  #50  
Old Posted Jan 31, 2007, 5:10 AM
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Originally Posted by bmfarley View Post
I am in San Diego and I have spoke with a number of people.... the majority seem to want High Speed Rail. Many are enthusiastic about the potenital to ride from Escondido into Downtown San Diego. Many others that I have spoke to wish we had a system like what BART is in the Bay Area.

Sure they are. I used to be enthusiastic too. Until I realized that San Diego was not going to be included in the first phase and that the cost is realistically going to top $50 bil. Remember what the recent trolley line finally cost (Mission Valley-La Mesa)? About 25% over budget. (A line I supported and still do BTW) What makes you think that a vastly more complicated and difficult project, on a vastly larger scale, will perform better?

There is going to be just one phase for this, the biggest public works project in the state's history. Believe what you want, but I've worked on enough big projects to know better.

If San Diego is not included in the first phase, we will never see it here. We'll still have spent $50 bil. or so (some suggest much more) and we'll have to go to LA to see HSR.

No thank you.
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  #51  
Old Posted Jan 31, 2007, 5:13 AM
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Of course they'll like it when it's built, and by that time they'll wonder how California would even survive without it.

I just don't understand why everyone runs for the hills when a project's price is estimated. Yes projects go over budget or are sometimes delayed, but, like I said, this would be the largest public works project ever built. I think audacity is more admirable than skepticism. Should the Golden Gate or Bay Bridges never have been built in the midst of the Depression, should New York have waited until its congested streets were impassable and ruined its economy before it built the subway because of the cost? NO. I can't imagine these places functioning without them now. These are enormous projects, with enormous price tags - because they will provide enormous benefits.
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  #52  
Old Posted Jan 31, 2007, 5:18 AM
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Originally Posted by william View Post
That depends on whom you ask. The Orange County Register recently suggested the cost was closer to $75 bil. You'll find that in a editorial from 6.14.06 titled "Taking taxpayers for a ride"

As more people start seeing those kinds of numbers for a strictly LA-SF system. And given the billions we've just approved in bonds for infrastructure costs... well, you just hold on to that confidence, it'll be all you have.
Oh come on! That editorial was written by Wendell Cox!

http://www.ocregister.com/ocregister...le_1179373.php
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  #53  
Old Posted Jan 31, 2007, 5:18 AM
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Originally Posted by J Church View Post
Sure, sure. Except the system hasn't been downsized, and the estimate hasn't doubled.

slock, they'll like it when it's built.
The original estimate was $25 bil. It's already increased by $12 bil. according to your own numbers. Build the whole thing at once and I'm with ya.

slock, I'll see ya on United.
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  #54  
Old Posted Jan 31, 2007, 5:29 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by william View Post
"...Remember what the recent trolley line finally cost (Mission Valley-La Mesa)? About 25% over budget. (A line I supported and still do BTW) What makes you think that a vastly more complicated and difficult project, on a vastly larger scale, will perform better? ..."
25% ? I am sure the difference lies somewhere between the cost estimate being referenced to a particular year... with actual construction being a few years later - construction cpi was probably 3-4% increase each year. And/or that the original alignment probably did not include the subway station at San Diego State.

I would not be suprised if something similar occurs with HSR.. could be the result of alignment changes to benefit a community, added enviromental mitigation, or unforeseen problems; but yet I am not opposed to it.
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  #55  
Old Posted Jan 31, 2007, 5:43 AM
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Originally Posted by bmfarley View Post
25% ? I am sure the difference lies somewhere between the cost estimate being referenced to a particular year... with actual construction being a few years later - construction cpi was probably 3-4% increase each year. And/or that the original alignment probably did not include the subway station at San Diego State.

I would not be suprised if something similar occurs with HSR.. could be the result of alignment changes to benefit a community, added enviromental mitigation, or unforeseen problems; but yet I am not opposed to it.
Well, I'm glad you're OK with all of that. But if "something similar" happens with HSR, we're looking at nearly $50 bil. Numbers like that tend to take a little of the enthusiasm out of people. Glad you're not one of them, but you need to consider that others may eventually feel differently. I'll be happy to consider that $50 bil. will make everyone really warm up to this project. But I wonder which is more likely?

As I've said, build this entire system at once and I with you 100%. But I've been around the block long enough to know that on a project like this, there will be no phase two.
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  #56  
Old Posted Jan 31, 2007, 5:57 AM
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Everyone's talking about how much this is gonna cost... let's think about how much it's gonna make. This project will make California the leader in the U.S. rail industry. Even if it's only a fraction of the size of the automaking or aerospace industries, it's still going to be a huge source of jobs and export income.
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  #57  
Old Posted Jan 31, 2007, 5:57 AM
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Of course they'll like it when it's built, and by that time they'll wonder how California would even survive without it.

I just don't understand why everyone runs for the hills when a project's price is estimated. Yes projects go over budget or are sometimes delayed, but, like I said, this would be the largest public works project ever built. I think audacity is more admirable than skepticism. Should the Golden Gate or Bay Bridges never have been built in the midst of the Depression, should New York have waited until its congested streets were impassable and ruined its economy before it built the subway because of the cost? NO. I can't imagine these places functioning without them now. These are enormous projects, with enormous price tags - because they will provide enormous benefits.
Now that is laughable. We're all delighted that the Golden Gate Bridge was built. But at the time, they didn't try to tell people in Sacramento that the costs also included the Tower Bridge or people in San Diego the Coronado Bridge. They didn't try to tell us that the Bay Bridge would cut traffic in San Diego.

try again...
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  #58  
Old Posted Jan 31, 2007, 5:57 AM
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^^^ What phase did the San Diego Trolley just complete? I need two hands to count up to 7. Certainly more than 2. Let alone 1.

Sadly, I think people get locked into the first figure they see and are unmoving after that. I write in jest.... maybe CHSRA staff should present a built-out system for 2100 (legs to Chico and Redding, Barstow and Las Vegas, the Central Coast, etc.) with a price of $100b. Then settle everyones concerns and present a scaled back system for $34b.
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  #59  
Old Posted Jan 31, 2007, 6:00 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by william View Post
Attention HSR backers: This is how a lot of people feel.

If you can't overcome people in Sacramento and San Diego's legitimate scepticism, you are not going to see HSR in California. It's that simple.
Attention William: No surprise here. A lot of people in CA constantly overlook what's good for the state for selfish local reasons.
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  #60  
Old Posted Jan 31, 2007, 6:03 AM
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One last note: Frankly, it would be much cheaper to build the route to Sacramento and then connect to SF on the existing Capital Corridor trains.
Unlike the local chauvinists who have revealed themselves here, if that were the only option, I would would vote FOR it because you are right. Any HSR between the north central and southern parts of the state can be connected to other parts by "low speed" rail and such a system would be a real advance over what we have.

Of course building an LA to Sacramento line and bypassing Silicon Valley/San Jose as well as SF-Oakland would be really penny wise and pound foolish, but if that's what the political overlords in their overheated Central Valley capital want, so be it.
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