Winnipeg CMA Population in 5 Years: Predictions

[thebasketballgeek]

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[Biff]

Update from Statistics Canada - Provincial 4th Quarter 2014 results

http://www.statcan.gc.ca/pub/91-002-...artie1-eng.htm

"Manitoba’s population increased by 3,500 (+0.3%), in the last quarter of 2014, to reach 1,289,800 on January 1, 2015. This growth mainly stemmed from net international migration (+3,200) which was the second highest level in a fourth quarter since 1971 recorded for Manitoba, after 2011 (+3,700). In the last quarter of 2014, Manitoba received 3,500 immigrants, a continuation of the level of immigration recorded in the same quarter of the previous year."

[esquire]

1,289,792! We're padding our lead on NS but the pesky Saskers are keeping up... they have the unfair advantage of 10 million Saskatchewan-born people living next door in Alberta

[Jammon]

Will be interesting to see whether the trend of interprovincial migration will be reversed with the economy in AB the way it is as of right now. Might last for more than a year, and even after oil prices rebound, there could be some lasting effects..

[Tacheguy]

Originally Posted by Jammon

Will be interesting to see whether the trend of interprovincial migration will be reversed with the economy in AB the way it is as of right now. Might last for more than a year, and even after oil prices rebound, there could be some lasting effects..

I think this is right. Our interprovincial net migration numbers should improve starting almost immediately. I see that improvement lasting for years because our oil patch, in my view, is in the early stages of a structural decline. Now if we could only do something about those baby boomers retiring in b.c.

[Riverman]

Originally Posted by Tacheguy

I see that improvement lasting for years because our oil patch, in my view, is in the early stages of a structural decline.

On what do you base this opinion, other than hatred for Alberta?

[Cyro]

Originally Posted by Tacheguy

I think this is right. Our interprovincial net migration numbers should improve starting almost immediately. I see that improvement lasting for years because our oil patch, in my view, is in the early stages of a structural decline. Now if we could only do something about those baby boomers retiring in b.c.

I see it taking at least a year+ before the skilled labour starts moving our way. Maintenance and ongoing production in Alberta will still retain skilled tradesman, gradually tapering off to the bare essentials, could be almost 2 years..imo..

Although with bi-pole/hydro construction we're likely facing a shortage and will be in need of skilled labour, with a large % of the work force retiring. We'll be playing catch up for quite some time.

[Tacheguy]

Originally Posted by Cyro

I see it taking at least a year+ before the skilled labour starts moving our way. Maintenance and ongoing production in Alberta will still retain skilled tradesman, gradually tapering off to the bare essentials, could be almost 2 years..imo..

Although with bi-pole/hydro construction we're likely facing a shortage and will be in need of skilled labour, with a large % of the work force retiring. We'll be playing catch up for quite some time.

That is only half of it though. What should happen right away is fewer young people leaving Manitoba for the oil patch.

[bomberjet]

If there is a medium term (3-5 years), downward trend in the oil patch (and I'm assuming you're speaking of the Canadian oil patch) , I'll buy it. The company I work for, not even specifically in oil, is going down the tubes in Alberta. Traditionally s strong market, as Alberta has been for a few decades. We're sending work their way to pay the bills. Long term, that's unsustainable. Give it 1-2 years and we'll see where things are at.

[Simplicity]

Originally Posted by Tacheguy

I think this is right. Our interprovincial net migration numbers should improve starting almost immediately. I see that improvement lasting for years because our oil patch, in my view, is in the early stages of a structural decline. Now if we could only do something about those baby boomers retiring in b.c.

This is the truth. Inventories are growing, demand is waning and the US and OPEC are in a race to stash as much oil as they can. And we've been down this path before. The last time it took almost ten years to rebound. The larger issue is who or what absorbs all the labour slack.

[Cyro]

Originally Posted by Simplicity

This is the truth. Inventories are growing, demand is waning and the US and OPEC are in a race to stash as much oil as they can. And we've been down this path before. The last time it took almost ten years to rebound. The larger issue is who or what absorbs all the labour slack.

For this province, It's the larger question and the most concerning. The skilled labour force in Manitoba has been on a decline for some time. The provincial government will be pushing for training programs on all levels, if not already after recent forecasts by the CB of Canada due to the projections in the performance of our economy in the next 2 years. The lack of qualified individuals to move into the new positions being created and needed will take time.

[Simplicity]

Originally Posted by Cyro

For this province, It's the larger question and the most concerning. The skilled labour force in Manitoba has been on a decline for some time. The provincial government will be pushing for training programs on all levels, if not already after recent forecasts by the CB of Canada due to the projections in the performance of our economy in the next 2 years. The lack of qualified individuals to move into the new positions being created and needed will take time.

You can fill that internally without the lure of fast money in the oil patch. It's more what comes of the labour slack that's returning to Manitoba, the Maritimes, Saskatchewan, and Ontario. The skilled trades have been hugely valuable because construction has been trending along with the rest of the economy. But if the economy begins to wane - and there's simply no reason to believe that Manitoba is somehow completely immune to the national picture - the demand for all those skilled hands is going to level off. Most of the tradespeople needed in this province are needed to fill jobs as retirements come en masse, but we need to be realistic about what that really means. Lots of those jobs are going to disappear due to simple attrition and many others are going to be replaced by more technically adept tradespeople requiring fewer total workers. If we stop sending our tradespeople out of province, we need to be careful about what our immigration strategy looks like. It probably can't look like the past few years if we want to keep wages at reasonable levels.

[Cyro]

Originally Posted by Simplicity

You can fill that internally without the lure of fast money in the oil patch. It's more what comes of the labour slack that's returning to Manitoba, the Maritimes, Saskatchewan, and Ontario. The skilled trades have been hugely valuable because construction has been trending along with the rest of the economy. But if the economy begins to wane - and there's simply no reason to believe that Manitoba is somehow completely immune to the national picture - the demand for all those skilled hands is going to level off. Most of the tradespeople needed in this province are needed to fill jobs as retirements come en masse, but we need to be realistic about what that really means. Lots of those jobs are going to disappear due to simple attrition and many others are going to be replaced by more technically adept tradespeople requiring fewer total workers. If we stop sending our tradespeople out of province, we need to be careful about what our immigration strategy looks like. It probably can't look like the past few years if we want to keep wages at reasonable levels.

Of course our economy is not immune to fluctuations, we're just looking at a provincial economy that is now in a positive growth cycle due to it's overall strength's, ie: Manufacturing = warehousing > transportation due to the US-CAD currency discrepancy and oil prices that are at a decade low..(Great for Manitoba, Ontario etc.' ..Sask, Alberta,N.L another story)....provinces that solely rely on extraction of resources. I already posted my thoughts on attrition/retirement, probably 2.5-1 to replace the b-boomer generation and a huge, holy shit 60% of our veteran skilled trades workforce is retiring...

Technically adept replacements? Certainly times have changed but I believe the requirements for electricians, masons, carpenters etc..etc..has not changed dramatically, other than the obvious yearly changes new technology brings, ie: automobile mechanic.

The immigration strategy for our province? I haven't heard enough about it at this juncture to make any reasonable response, I'll see what I can glean from available sources for a reply.

How bout those Jets? Still hoping for 7-8 clean wins to get to the dance..

[Tacheguy]

Originally Posted by Simplicity

This is the truth. Inventories are growing, demand is waning and the US and OPEC are in a race to stash as much oil as they can. And we've been down this path before. The last time it took almost ten years to rebound. The larger issue is who or what absorbs all the labour slack.

Yes. The big difference to me since the 08/09 price drop and recovery is the emergence of advanced drilling and recovery techniques. For the first time it is the supply side that has become elastic. The Economist mentioned that a new tight oil well can be drilled in a week, at acost of a million dollars. And these metrics are declining steadily. Once prices start to recover then supply will respond. Can OPEC get this genie back in the bottle? I doubt it.

Economic Alternate fuel sources are a long way off in my opinion. I do note however that the Americans have set a target to develop a new battery that will hold five times as much energy as the most advanced lithium battery, to be produced at one fifth the cost, and all within five years. Could you imagine the implications of that if they succeed?
On the immigration side my view is that more is better than less. The aggregate demand impact outweighs the downward wage effect. I think the biggest problem in the maritimes for example is their reluctance to open their society to large scale immigration.
Within immigration though it is useful to differentiate between refugees and others such as provincial nominees. Studies have shown that the latter do well over time. The refugees not so much, particularly (for some reason) the second generation. An interesting area though. I do a little work in that realm but am an expert by no means.

[Simplicity]

Originally Posted by Tacheguy

Yes. The big difference to me since the 08/09 price drop and recovery is the emergence of advanced drilling and recovery techniques. For the first time it is the supply side that has become elastic. The Economist mentioned that a new tight oil well can be drilled in a week, at acost of a million dollars. And these metrics are declining steadily. Once prices start to recover then supply will respond. Can OPEC get this genie back in the bottle? I doubt it.

Economic Alternate fuel sources are a long way off in my opinion. I do note however that the Americans have set a target to develop a new battery that will hold five times as much energy as the most advanced lithium battery, to be produced at one fifth the cost, and all within five years. Could you imagine the implications of that if they succeed?
On the immigration side my view is that more is better than less. The aggregate demand impact outweighs the downward wage effect. I think the biggest problem in the maritimes for example is their reluctance to open their society to large scale immigration.
Within immigration though it is useful to differentiate between refugees and others such as provincial nominees. Studies have shown that the latter do well over time. The refugees not so much, particularly (for some reason) the second generation. An interesting area though. I do a little work in that realm but am an expert by no means.

Absolutely. I didn't really mean to just glide over this sort of point, but there's only so much space. My concern comes more with the effects of wage pressure even amongst good jobs because we've seen that. Look at something like a pharmacist - wages have been cut by over 40% since the provincial nominee program started identifying educated people for immigration. And the other effect of that imported labour is that overall employment in those sectors becomes more part-time and more tenuous creating marginal incremental decreases in the value of the degree itself. That's a little concerning because jobs like those create their value through scarcity - not because they're overly good at actually creating value. Same would go for accountants and engineers who are both large beneficiaries of these program. These are important functions, but again, they're not overly good at creating tangible value. Their value is in the wage they're paid on account of the scarcity of their qualification. If we keep focusing solely on educated people for this program, we'll undermine the very point of it.

It's tough to keep an economy strong on the basis of just construction and service and that's largely what we've done. It'll be interesting to see how or if we're able to outgrow other provinces when we're going to face a lot of the same negative macroeconomic forces.

It's funny because I remember the days when we used to speak so glowingly about labour mobility. But we only really do that in the good times. We don't want that slack back in the bad!

[Simplicity]

Originally Posted by Cyro

Of course our economy is not immune to fluctuations, we're just looking at a provincial economy that is now in a positive growth cycle due to it's overall strength's, ie: Manufacturing = warehousing > transportation due to the US-CAD currency discrepancy and oil prices that are at a decade low..(Great for Manitoba, Ontario etc.' ..Sask, Alberta,N.L another story)....provinces that solely rely on extraction of resources. I already posted my thoughts on attrition/retirement, probably 2.5-1 to replace the b-boomer generation and a huge, holy shit 60% of our veteran skilled trades workforce is retiring...

Technically adept replacements? Certainly times have changed but I believe the requirements for electricians, masons, carpenters etc..etc..has not changed dramatically, other than the obvious yearly changes new technology brings, ie: automobile mechanic.

The immigration strategy for our province? I haven't heard enough about it at this juncture to make any reasonable response, I'll see what I can glean from available sources for a reply.

How bout those Jets? Still hoping for 7-8 clean wins to get to the dance..

Materials are changing requiring far less maintenance in time, tools are changing, and demand is waning. Not to mention that wages have been driven up on the basis of an oil patch that is competing for the same workers.

The large majority of skilled trades are at the mercy of the housing sector. And since most of the trades can be done without any sort of certification as long as there's a journeyman on site, outside of a union environment, you're creating work anybody can do with a few hours of prep. The trades just aren't the sorts of things you rely on to create hard price floors because they're too easy to get into. Creating red seal programs is how you try to keep them out, but nearly anybody can swing a hammer or turn a screwdriver. Suggesting that the situation is dire is a little disingenuous because there's virtually no practical barrier to entry even if there's a bureaucratic one at the very top.

The price of a carpenter has more than doubled in Manitoba (non-union) in the past 10 years strictly on housing demand driven by oil; you had to pay to keep them here. That's already changing.

[OverUnder]

The city updated their numbers on March 20th: http://www.winnipeg.ca/cao/pdfs/population.pdf

Approaching 718k for Winnipeg this July and 792k for the CMA.

[LilZebra]

Originally Posted by 1ajs

if we hit 1 million in 5 years we will have one hell of a bottle neck

I think we're here now, at 730,000 the roads are full, the buses are full, rent is double what it used to be.

The planners are not really planning for a metro area of 1 million.

[roccerfeller]

Originally Posted by OverUnder

The city updated their numbers on March 20th: http://www.winnipeg.ca/cao/pdfs/population.pdf

Approaching 718k for Winnipeg this July and 792k for the CMA.

Also keep in mind, the CMA doesn't include Selkirk, which is another 9-10k people in what I would still consider in the "range" of the CMA area. I'm sure there are people who make the daily commute to Winnipeg, I knew people who would go to classes at the U of W even some who went to U of M (quite the drive though)

I wonder however if the CMA selection is based on whether 50% or more of the workforce commutes to the city specifically or not

[Jammon]

Originally Posted by roccerfeller

Also keep in mind, the CMA doesn't include Selkirk, which is another 9-10k people in what I would still consider in the "range" of the CMA area. I'm sure there are people who make the daily commute to Winnipeg, I knew people who would go to classes at the U of W even some who went to U of M (quite the drive though)

I wonder however if the CMA selection is based on whether 50% or more of the workforce commutes to the city specifically or not

Yes, it is. A few years back I had contacted Statscan about a project I was doing and they were quite explicit about how they determine whether to add a community to the CMA. And you are right, more than 50% of the population must commute to the CMA on a daily basis for work.

It's rather arbitrary when you think about it given that a lot of people in Selkirk come to Winnipeg for other reasons than work/school. Same goes for Steinbach. They need to differentiate from the CMA and add a classification for Census Economic Area which would incorporate other communities; i.e.) Selkirk and Steinbach where there is a high degree of economic integration that may or may not be contingent on the CMA population. Just my two cents...