Detroit then and now: An infographic.

[dc_denizen]

Thanks for the responses, jonathan.jam, animatedmartian and hudkina.

[AccraGhana]

Originally Posted by ssiguy

That is not how you build sustainable communities.

People are far, far less likely to become active participants in their community in terms of both time and money if they know it's only short-term accomodation. People will also not buy housing in that kind of mindset and Detroit definately needs a stabilized housing market.

People who move to different places in the long term are far more likely to actually care for their community and it's citizens as opposed to those who come for a good time but not a long time. Also hipsters who move to downtown/inner city areas to escape the banality of suburbia and ussually at amongst the lowest level of their earnings potential. As they age, like everyone, their income levels rise as they go up the government, business, corporate ladder.

You also want people not just to move there and still work in the suburbs but to also set up businesses which they are far less likely to do if they know that in 5 years it will mean a hour long commute every morning as they return to the suburbs they originally left.

I think it would behoove people to look at Detroit in terms of current demographic trends and not past demographic realities. The fertility rate or rather the birth rate of women is in decline, especially among the most coveted demographic, which are Caucasians. Thus, schools and such are not as important to young people who either do not plan to have children or who do not plan on having children until much later in their lives and careers.

What’s also true is that our economy in the US will continue to weaken and our overall standard of living will decline and people are going to seek rentals more and more. People are going to want the flexibility that renting provides. One can get out of a lease a lot easier than they can get out of a mortgage and people do not want to be tied down to an area and not be able to move to better opportunities elsewhere if they exist and the lose their income locally. The SHTF will happen when interest rates start to rise to offset inflation due to weak dollar policies of the FED.

Eventually market forces will make Detroit more attractive as the big three stabilize, the city finances stabilize by shaking legacy cost (probably via appointing an emergency manager) while the city offers some of the cheapest real estate prices to be had nationally. Detroit is an outstanding location and has outstanding “bones”. Eventually meat will be put back on those bones. I am not as confident in the specifics and the precise date this turnaround will manifest, but I am positive that the foundation of that turnaround is still being laid and that once its laid; Michigan and Detroit will be a relative winner among states going forward.

[topdog]

This is one of the most interesting threads I've seen on this forum.

[Fresh]

Originally Posted by Crawford

There are thousands of very well educated, very well compensated Germans, Italians, and Japanese working in Metro Detroit, by choice. Detroit is still the global hub of the auto industry, and the presence of high level auto executives, engineers and designers, especially from these three countries, is quite noticable. In fact, apartment rental ads are sometimes in Italian or German.

I assume these folks are able to make a distinction between the 80%-90% of the region that is basically the same as anywhere else in the U.S. They aren't hanging out in the ghettos of Detroit, which have no relevance to their daily lifestyle.

It seems really odd to me that people would take pride in their region, it's historical successes, it's present innovations, and yet deem the fact that huge swathes of it's inner core are not "relevant".

[ssiguy]

"Eventually market forces will make Detroit more attractive when the big three stabilize".

Not if history is a guide. In the 50s and 60s the big three were making money hand over fist, the industry was booming, wahes skyrocketing, and they had complete command of the North American market. That, however, didn't stop the decline of Detroit.

Detroit's population peaked at about 1950 and has fallen constistently ever since including huge decline in the 50s and 60s.

Even if there is near full emploument that doesn't mean the city will begin to retore it's population growth or end the urban decay and violence. When people are employed in an area with dirt cheap housing they can live wherever they please. Downtown has to offer more than just a shorter commute to get people to move there. It requires a high quality of life where communities are stable, safe, attractive, offer good educational/health/social services. They want to live in places that make them be glad to be home again after a hard day's work..............Detroit does not offer any of these things.

The only thing offers is a good arts and entertainment scene but people can get that by driving downtown when they want to take in a show/game/concert etc. A new streetcar line will not be near enough to entice people to move back and stay in inner city Detroit with other the other infrastructure and liveability that I mentioned.

[mhays]

Much of the recovery will come down to this: the value of new buildings must be substantially higher than the cost to create them, and the related risks.

Currently this is true in some key locations, sometimes with subsidy, if the developer/investors are brave enough, and if costs are kept down. This ought to snowball in these neighborhoods, if other factors don't screw it up. As for the rest, if you buy a house for $40k and spend $80k upgrading it, will it be worth $150k?

[Centropolis]

sort of off topic, but in the early part of Beverly Hills Cop there is some good footage of early 80s Detroit, including a badass victorian rowhouse strip behind a meadow. If you have netflix, it's worth watching the first 20 minutes of it just for that street footage (and the awesome car chase/smashup in the streets of Detroit).


http://bluraymedia.ign.com

[JonathanGRR]

I agree with you completely ssiguy; Detroit will need more than just the Big Three being successful in order to make a true comeback. Most automotive-related jobs are factory-based, not corporate. Since many of the automakers' and related suppliers' factories are not in the city proper anymore, boosts in the auto industry won't see as much of an impact on the city as one might think.

Detroit needs an overall business revival, with corporations, firms, start-ups, foundations, trusts, etc. all moving back to the city. This has been starting to take place, but there is still along way to go.

[north 42]

Nothing major will change in Detroit until the city can hire enough police to actually be effective and make people feel safe, same goes for fire department and EMS. It's one thing for a young professional to move DT and enjoy all it has to offer, but once they marry and have kids, there's no way they'll stay in the city, unless they feel safe and know that their kids can get a quality education in a safe school.

[hudkina]

The fortunes of the Detroit metro area are still somewhat tied to the health of the auto industry, but the city's future is no longer determined by the success of the Big 3. It hasn't been since the 70's. Chrysler and GM have about 7,000 people employed within the city of Detroit with most of those people commuting from the suburbs. That's insignificant. In fact there are more residents of the city of Detroit that work in the Casinos than work for the Big 3 in the city.

[JonathanGRR]

If anyone is interested, there is a live chat on MLive at noon with emergency manger experts on what can be expected from an EM in Detroit. http://www.mlive.com/news/detroit/in....html#comments

On that note, and relation to north42's comment, I wonder if an EM would bring in a large Michigan State Police force to help supplement Detroit's Police Department, and what effect would that have?

[north 42]

Originally Posted by jonathan.jam

If anyone is interested, there is a live chat on MLive at noon with emergency manger experts on what can be expected from an EM in Detroit. http://www.mlive.com/news/detroit/in....html#comments

On that note, and relation to north42's comment, I wonder if an EM would bring in a large Michigan State Police force to help supplement Detroit's Police Department, and what effect would that have?

One would hope so, but I really have no idea what would be possible if an EM is brought in. Hopefully when and if this happens, the changes will be substantial and effective.

[Crawford]

Originally Posted by Fresh

It seems really odd to me that people would take pride in their region, it's historical successes, it's present innovations, and yet deem the fact that huge swathes of it's inner core are not "relevant".

Why is that odd? In most metros, the downtrodden areas aren't front-and-center to the elites. In the case of Detroit, however, the downtrodden areas happen to form a cohesive area that encompasses most of the city proper.

Detroit has a very different spatial distribution than most metros. But, again, at a metro level, notwithsanding the rhetoric, if you look at the numbers, the issues are the same as in all the cities in this part of the country.

And, as others have mentioned, the auto industry, and associated employment isn't in Detroit proper. Oakland County, and GM Tech in Macomb County, have the bulk of the white collar auto employment. For example, the Japanese live in Novi, because they work in Japanese supplier firms along the I-96 corridor.

[PHL10]

Originally Posted by Crawford

Why is that odd? In most metros, the downtrodden areas aren't front-and-center to the elites. In the case of Detroit, however, the downtrodden areas happen to form a cohesive area that encompasses most of the city proper.

Detroit has a very different spatial distribution than most metros. But, again, at a metro level, notwithsanding the rhetoric, if you look at the numbers, the issues are the same as in all the cities in this part of the country.

And, as others have mentioned, the auto industry, and associated employment isn't in Detroit proper. Oakland County, and GM Tech in Macomb County, have the bulk of the white collar auto employment. For example, the Japanese live in Novi, because they work in Japanese supplier firms along the I-96 corridor.

Include me in the group that considers this odd. Even in places where the inner cities are downtrodden, the historic core is what defines that place to outsiders. When watching a Monday Night Football game in Detroit, they aren’t going to show the “I-96 corridor”, they are going to show the river, the skyline, and the downtown street scenes. If that historic core is F’d up, why is the outsider making a judgment based on what he/she sees the one with the perception problem? I would argue it’s all these “metro-Detroiters” that keep telling us to look the other way have the perception problem.

[Crawford]

Originally Posted by PHL10

Include me in the group that considers this odd. Even in places where the inner cities are downtrodden, the historic core is what defines that place to outsiders.

Not true. In many cities, the historic core has little relevance to outsiders, and yet the region isn't considered crappy.

I just spent 10 days in LA, never set foot downtown, and I consider myself an urbanist. LA is a fantastic city, yet its core is largely irrelevent to visitors. Nothing that defines the city is in or near downtown.

Same goes for most cities in Latin America, Las Vegas, Orlando, Phoenix, even Miami. Many cities in Asia and Africa have similar spatial development patterns.

Detroit is considered crappy because it has horrible slums, crime, and economic issues, not because it's decentralized. And downtown Detroit isn't the problem anyways. Downtown Detroit is fairly thriving, outperforming the region, and looks pretty decent. It's the rest of the city that's struggling mightily.

[animatedmartian]

Speaking of Downtown Detroit, a recent report came out about the statistics of Greater Downtown Detroit. To most who live and visit downtown, none of this is really surprising. Compared to other cities' downtowns, this is even less surprising.

But let me remind you, there are Metro Detroiters and even Michiganders and out of state residents who swore up and down that they'd never go into Detroit and are probably still unaware of what is going on now even after a decade thinking that there's really nothing positive in Detroit.

Downtown Detroit has more wealth, diversity than city as whole, report says
By John Gallagher
Detroit Free Press Business Writer
February 18, 2013




The makeup of downtown Detroit is more diverse, educated and wealthy than the rest of the city, according to a new report expected to be released this week.

Titled "7.2 Sq Mi" after the square mileage that makes up the greater downtown area, the findings validate in detail what many Detroiters have suspected about all the new residents and workers flocking to the area in recent years.

...

• Greater downtown is more racially diverse than Detroit as a whole. The 2010 census showed that Detroit's population was 83% African American and 11% white in 2010. But in the greater downtown, blacks made up 68% of residents and whites accounted for 21%.

• Residents of greater downtown are better educated than the city's population as a whole. Of people ages 25-34, 42% have college education in greater downtown compared with 11% citywide.

• Per-capita income in greater downtown was $20,216, about 33% higher than in the city as a whole.

• The number of housing units in greater downtown is rising along with demand. As of 2010, there were 26,722 residential units in greater downtown, up about 1,300 from 2000. Most are rentals.

• Vacant units appear to be getting snapped up quickly. As of 2012, occupancy rates for rental units in central downtown and Midtown stood at 97% and 95%, respectively.

• Apartment rental rates have risen with demand. For a rough comparison, rental rates were $1.22 per square foot in the Kales Building, which opened in 2005 at Adams and Grand Circus Park, compared with $1.56 in the Broderick Tower, which opened last year in that area.

• Greater downtown has lost population at a much slower rate than the city as a whole. Detroit as a whole lost 25% of its residents between 2000 and 2010, while the greater downtown lost 13%. Some of that loss was apparently the result of the final closure of the Brewster-Douglass development on the near-east side late in the last decade.

http://www.freep.com/article/2013021...e-report-finds

The full report here:
http://www.detroitsevenpointtwo.com/...fullreport.pdf

[Centropolis]

Perhaps Detroit city can drive a contiguous wedge of redevelopment/gentrification towards a/the favored suburban quarter from downtown like St. Louis is doing. It seems like it's having the effect of spreading out now as well from that favored "wedge." It seems like Detroit is set up vaguely like St. Louis with nodes of development (midtown, etc) having originally popped up in a sort of linear way away from downtown/ the river. It's also interesting that there is a Grand Blvd running parallel to the river and a diagonal Gratiot that kind of seems like our Gravois (and we also have a Gratiot).

[north 42]

The new LRT line they are starting this year will hopefully facilitate redevelopment and gentrification of Woodward Ave from DT north, eventually to 8 Mile Rd and hopefully, into Oakland County and it's wealthy suburbs.

[Centropolis]

Originally Posted by north 42

The new LRT line they are starting this year will hopefully facilitate redevelopment and gentrification of Woodward Ave from DT north, eventually to 8 Mile Rd and hopefully, into Oakland County and it's wealthy suburbs.

yep, that's sort of how the LRT line(s) has functioned here. The first one sort of stablized the central corridor and the second one to Clayton, which is sort of like Oak Park, helped to accelerate development (the full impact of which hasnt been felt yet due to the economy). i wonder if anyone in Detroit has taken a look at what we have done (a city that has lost a greater share of population than even Detroit). i think during the '06 world series there were some articles, otherwise it seems like we fly pretty far under the radar.

[AccraGhana]

Originally Posted by hudkina

The fortunes of the Detroit metro area are still somewhat tied to the health of the auto industry, but the city's future is no longer determined by the success of the Big 3. It hasn't been since the 70's. Chrysler and GM have about 7,000 people employed within the city of Detroit with most of those people commuting from the suburbs. That's insignificant. In fact there are more residents of the city of Detroit that work in the Casinos than work for the Big 3 in the city.

This is not true. How many people living in the city of Detroit are employed by the big three or the auto industry in general, whether it be directly at one of the Big Three or at one of the many parts manufacturers? Plants don't just hire people who live in the city that the plant is located. Its not simply about tax revenues from plants and offices.....when autoworkers who live in the city lose their jobs....it hurts the city regardless if those jobs are located outside the city. So yes.....Detroit's fortunes are tied to the auto industry as long as people living in the city get income from it.