AUSTIN | ABIA Updates

[Jdawgboy]

Going from 12 to 10 flights a day isn't really a big deal. It could open the door for other carriers to increase their presence. With the kind of growth ABIA has seen, I'm sure from the airlines perspective its a competitive market. If one airline decreases service, another will likely pick up the slack as is the case with the San Francisco route. Besides SW dominates the carrier market at ABIA, I'm guessing some other airlines would like to see that change.

[LoneStarMike]

Originally Posted by Jdawgboy

Going from 12 to 10 flights a day isn't really a big deal. It could open the door for other carriers to increase their presence. With the kind of growth ABIA has seen, I'm sure from the airlines perspective its a competitive market. If one airline decreases service, another will likely pick up the slack as is the case with the San Francisco route.

I agree that it isn't a big deal. Before 9/11 an average of 2,100 people per day flew between Austin and Dallas (Love Field and DFW combined) or about 1050 per day each way. That number has decreased to 1042 people per day flying between Austin & Dallas or about 521 passengers per day each way. Between Southwest's soon-to-be 10 roundtrips per day, plus however many daily flights American has to DFW there's more than enough daily seats in that particular city-pair

As far as other airlines "picking up the slack" there really isn't any "slack" to pick up in the Austin to Dallas market. The same applies to flights between Austin & Houston. Pre 9/11 there were approximately 1000 daily passengers flying between the two cities (Hobby and Intercontinental combined) or about 500 per day each way. That number has dropped to 270 passengers or 135 per day each way, which explains why Southwest has gone from 11 daily departures from Austin to Houston Hobby (pre 9/11) to 4 daily departures effective November 2014. Plus United (formerly Continental) has flights to their hub at IAH (Houston Intercontinental.)

[austlar1]

I'm assuming (always a dangerous thing) that the passenger numbers you cite between Austin and Houston (and Austin Dallas) refer to passengers ticketed only between the two cities as opposed to the total number of passengers flying between the two cities. I am guessing that the bulk the of passengers flying between Austin and Hobby are using Hobby as a hub for flights elsewhere. Seems like once the Wright Amendment expires later this year there is likely to be increased traffic from Austin to Love Field, which will become a busier hub for Southwest.

[LoneStarMike]

Originally Posted by austlar1

I'm assuming (always a dangerous thing) that the passenger numbers you cite between Austin and Houston (and Austin Dallas) refer to passengers ticketed only between the two cities as opposed to the total number of passengers flying between the two cities.

Yes, that is correct.

I am guessing that the bulk the of passengers flying between Austin and Hobby are using Hobby as a hub for flights elsewhere.

Also correct. (I made a connection at Hobby back in January coming back from Tampa. There were 60 passengers on the flight, so it wasn't even half full.)

Seems like once the Wright Amendment expires later this year there is likely to be increased traffic from Austin to Love Field, which will become a busier hub for Southwest.

That's also likely, but I don't see Southwest or another airline adding any more flights from ABIA to Love Field, though. Southwest mostly uses 143 seat aircraft on those flights between Austin and Love Field. With 10 daily departures, that's 1430 seats per day (in each direction.) If an average of 521 passengers per day each way are traveling solely between Austin and Love Field, that leaves an additional 909 seats per day in each direction for connecting passengers.

BTW, Austin wasn't the only city to see a reduction in the number of flights to Love Field. San Antonio, El Paso, Houston, Kansas City, St. Louis and Albuquerque had reductions, too.

[GoldenBoot]

As ABIA continues to offer new nonstop destinations via its partner airlines, the need for a passenger to transfer at a hub is diminishing.

In the case of SWA, they are loosing their competitive advantage as each day passes. They are in the midst of a logistical change (becoming more like the other large carriers) in that they no longer can afford to be the "bus system" of the skies. As their fuel hedge disappears, they are slowly increasing their pricing...already, they are almost to the point where it may be not only cheaper, but more timely to fly another airline to the same destination.

[hookem]

I wonder if post-911, the demand for really short routes (like Austin to Dallas or Houston) has gone down due to the length of time for security, etc? I imagine at least some people just find it about the same to drive (especially to Houston). Plus the increase in the speed limit to 75mph on most of the major highways in the state... I know it's not as big an impact as fewer people using hubs/more direct flights from here, but still it might have some effect on demand.

Also, seems to me that Southwest reducing their dependence on the "Texas Triangle" routes is probably a good thing, since they'll be less likely to oppose high-speed rail if it ever happens...

[LoneStarMike]

Originally Posted by hookem

I wonder if post-911, the demand for really short routes (like Austin to Dallas or Houston) has gone down due to the length of time for security, etc?

That's exactly what happened. It was a big reason why Southwest - which had lived with the Wright Amendment for 25 years - finally decided to try and get it repealed. Southwest was restricted to flying short-haul flights out of Love Field and these were the type of flights that declined most significantly post 9/11.

[Jdawgboy]

Goldenboot made a great point that having to fly to the hubs to transfer is becoming less of an issue. Austin loves their direct flights and as in the case with the London route, people don't even need to transfer at a hub in the U.S. to go anywhere in the world.

[Austin1971]

H

[the Genral]

Nice nonstop from AUS flight table. Go to:
Www.Nsflight.com choose tx, choose Austin. Shows % of seats filled and more.
We would not be the only airport of this size in the nonstop to Frankfurt conversation. Raleigh-Durham would also like to add a nonstop to Germany. Interesting enough, we are on the top of their wishlist to add nonstop to Austin.
Thanks to the 787 Dreamliner and BA's success, good things, like nonstop to Frankfurt would be...logical.

[Novacek]

Originally Posted by Austin1971

Heard an interesting and surprising tidbit today that Lufthansa has approached the port about possibly starting n/s service to Germany. No cities were mentioned but I'd have to think Frankfurt would be the best choice followed by Munich. We shall see.......

That would be _great_. I've had to do Austin->Charlotte->Munich->Cluj and Cluj->Munich->Chicago->Austin.

[sammyk]

Might be a while for LH. They don't have any 787s on order and their A350s are a ways off. Can the A330-300 make the run non-stop?

[Digatisdi]

If you think about the process for BA, especially regarding the timeframe, I think that since they're taking the A350's starting in 2016 now would probably be a very good time to start discussions with the aviation department.

Furthermore, it does appear that an A330-300 is what Lufthansa flies to FRA from DFW on LH439 and so a flight to Austin certainly wouldn't be more than what the A333 can handle.

[austlar1]

Originally Posted by Digatisdi

If you think about the process for BA, especially regarding the timeframe, I think that since they're taking the A350's starting in 2016 now would probably be a very good time to start discussions with the aviation department.

Furthermore, it does appear that an A330-300 is what Lufthansa flies to FRA from DFW on LH439 and so a flight to Austin certainly wouldn't be more than what the A333 can handle.

I think Lufthansa flies Frankfurt to Houston daily with the gigantic A380. In addition they fly DFW to Frankfurt with a 300 plus passenger widebody, the A330. I kind of doubt they are going to dilute their Texas passenger base with a non-stop Austin flight at this point in time. Also, AA operates a daily 777 nonstop on the DFW-FRA route, and UA flies a daily 767 non-stop on the IAH route to FRA and now has a non-stop flight to Munich out of IAH. That is a lot of seats to Germany from Texas, but I would have said something similar about Texas to London flights prior to the announcement of the BA flights out of Austin.

[Digatisdi]

Originally Posted by austlar1

I think Lufthansa flies Frankfurt to Houston daily with the gigantic A380. In addition they fly DFW to Frankfurt with a 300 plus passenger widebody, the A330. I kind of doubt they are going to dilute their Texas passenger base with a non-stop Austin flight at this point in time.

Well I'm only speculating on the technical feasibility of the route with their current fleet.

However if you surmise that, if I'm not mistaken, the qualifying threshold for new route incentives is only five flights per month I personally wouldn't rule it out. I think I'd have to take a look at passenger destination data before determining if it's likely within the next few years.

I'm definitely in the "I hope it happens but have inconclusive rumors to convince me it will happen" camp.

[Austin1971]

T

[GoldenBoot]

Originally Posted by sammyk

...Can the A330-300 make the run non-stop?

Yes, easily. The A333 has a range of ~10,000km. AUS is ~8,550km from FRA and ~8,850 from MUC (by average flight path).

Lufthansa's A333 fleet has a basic load of 221 passengers (8/48/165)...or very similar to BA's B788 layout of 214 passengers. With regard to the A333 in general, it's not quite as fuel efficient at the B788 and it's fuselage is ~22' longer than the B788. Their width, height and wingspans are about equal.

FYI: AUS-LHR is ~7,910km based on average flight path.

As Austin1971 put it...Lufthansa...very surprising news! I wonder if other international carriers have made initial contact with ABIA?!? I think it would be interesting...and telling...to know which airlines have reached out to ABIA (unsolicited) versus the ones in which ABIA has had to make initial contact.

[Digatisdi]

Originally Posted by GoldenBoot

As Austin1971 put it...Lufthansa...very surprising news! I wonder if other international carriers have made initial contact with ABIA?!? I think it would be interesting...and telling...to know which airlines have reached out to ABIA (unsolicited) versus the ones in which ABIA has had to make initial contact.

I'm sure that the success of BA 190/191 is directly responsible for this which is really very exciting. I don't think I'd be too far off if I were to claim that the LHR route has begun a new age in Austin aviation-- I mean of course it has already with it being the first scheduled nonstop transatlantic-- But the success of it with both passengers and cargo leads me to believe we're going to see more and more nonstop transoceanic flights over the next couple of years* which may hopefully speed up planning for the next phases of expansion (I think it's Phase III where they either build a new terminal or a new concourse?)

*After the terminal expansion of course. I can't imagine the current nearly makeshift CBP situation would be able to handle much more at this point.

[Jdawgboy]

No doubt that other airlines were watching BA's entrance into the market, it definitely is a major game changer for ABIA. If SAT had any chance of becoming a major international port, its basically gone at this point. ABIA will be the main airport for central, south and southwest Texas for long haul international flights.

Lufthansa makes sense as possibly the next European carrier for ABIA, but I agree that it won't happen until the terminal expansion is complete.

[texboy]

Originally Posted by Jdawgboy

No doubt that other airlines were watching BA's entrance into the market, it definitely is a major game changer for ABIA. If SAT had any chance of becoming a major international port, its basically gone at this point. ABIA will be the main airport for central, south and southwest Texas for long haul international flights.

Lufthansa makes sense as possibly the next European carrier for ABIA, but I agree that it won't happen until the terminal expansion is complete.

Not Necessarily true. There are many cities that are close together like AUS/SAT that both have international flights (i.e Charlotte/Raleigh, San Fran/San Jose) and cities with two or three airports with international destinations (Houston-Hobby 2015, NY). SAT I believe could support an international flight in the future because of the fact that Austin and SA airports are over an hour apart from each other. I would bet the majority of passengers out of SAT flying internationally are not going to drive up to ABIA, but instead take the transfer in Houston or Dallas. Too much of a hassle. Also remember, the tech base as well as several other industries are growing in San Antonio. That will eventually translate into more international passengers.