Well, it's even more complicated than any of you have surmised.
First of all, let's note that the Greater Paris Metropolis (
Métropole du Grand Paris in French) hasn't been created yet. It was approved by the National Assembly last month (much to anyone's surprise, because this project is literally a big bang unseen in French politics since 1789), but it still needs to be approved by the Senate, which is usually very conservative. The bill will be debated in the Senate in September. I fear a coalition of Communists and Rightist Conservatives will reject the bill (the Communists have most to lose if the bill is turned into law, because their last strongholds in the former 'red belt' of Paris will disappear). The Socialists are numerically the majority in the National Assembly, so they can pass any law without the support of any other party, but in the Senate they need the support of other parties. All the Communist senators will vote against the Greater Paris Metropolis, so the Socialists will need the votes of a certain number of Green and Rightist senators. We don't know yet whether they'll manage to get a majority. Some Rightist senators are in favor of the Greater Paris Metropolis, but other Rightist senators are absolutely opposed (in particular all the friends of Nicolas Sarkozy, who would lose their Rightist stronghold around La Défense, the 92 department, if the Greater Paris Metropolis was created).
If the Senate rejects the bill, the government can submit it again to the National Assembly (in the end, the National Assembly can overrule the Senate, just like the House of Commons in the UK can overrule the House of Lords), but it's not certain the government would send the bill back to the National Assembly after it was rejected by the Senate, because the Senate is supposed to represent the local councils (and the object of this bill is precisely a matter that concerns the organization of local councils), and because neither the French president nor the French prime-minister feel really concerned about the Greater Paris Metropolis (it's a project that arose at the last minute coming from grass-root Socialist deputies in the National Assembly).
So we'll know for sure only in September. If the Senate rejects the bill and the government then shelves the project, it will generate a major controversy I think, because it will be seen as yet another big symbol of a country (France) incapable of reforming itself. I expect all the media will turn against the government if the Greater Paris Metropolis is shelved.
Now, if the bill is passed and becomes law (in the Autumn), then it's basically the start of the biggest big bang in the administrative history of France since 1789. Few people realize the extent of what's at stake yet. It will be the end of the City of Paris as we know it, that's for sure.
The Greater Paris Metropolis will be a structure unlike anything that currently exists in North America. As one forumer said, it will resemble more or less the Municipality of Metropolitan Toronto as it existed between 1954 and 1998, but on a scale much larger than Metropolitan Toronto of course. In Europe, it will only resemble the Gemeindeverbände that exist in certain German states, but then only in rural areas. Compared to Greater London, it will be both less integrated than Greater London in some areas, and more integrated than Greater London in other areas.
The Greater Paris Metropolis is due to come into existence on Jan. 1, 2016. Its exact geographical extent is as yet unknown, because some deputies cleverly inserted an article in the bill during the debate at the National Assembly last month which makes it possible for any contiguous commune or group of communes from the outer suburbs to join the Greater Paris Metropolis before Nov. 30, 2014 (in other words, each commune located in the outer suburbs will have until Nov. 30, 2014 to decide whether they join the Greater Paris Metropolis). The communes who will refuse to join the Greater Paris Metropolis will be forced to join some intercommunal structures containing at least 200,000 inhabitants anyway, so they may think twice before they refuse to join the Greater Paris Metropolis, because otherwise they may be forced to join groupings of communes that they dislike (for example if the Socialist municipal councilors of Argenteuil refuse to join the Greater Paris Metropolis, they will be forced to join a grouping of communes dominated by the Right
; Argenteuil alone has 100,000 inh.).
This map shows the minimum extent of the Greater Paris Metropolis. According to the bill amended and approved by the National Assembly last month and sent to the Senate, it can't be smaller than that (127 communes, including the City of Paris which is 1 commune). It will be larger than that depending on which communes/groups of communes located beyond the red line (and either contiguous to the red line or to communes that decide to join) join before Nov. 30, 2014.
Tomorrow I'll tell you more about how we came to that (very unexpected) bill and why it's a big bang. In a nutshell, if the bill is passed, the Mayor of Paris is destined to become little more than the Lord-Mayor of the City of London in London. The new big boss will be the President of the Greater Paris Metropolis (Président de la Métropole du Grand Paris). Given the current political landscape, it's quite likely that the Mayor of Paris and the President of the Greater Paris Metropolis will be the same person, which is why I said it would be more integrated than Greater London in some respects. And out of the two jobs, it's of course the job of President of the Greater Paris Metropolis that will be the most important.
Last but not least, the current departments (75, 92, 93, 94) are also destined to disappear within 5 years (the Communist president of the 94 department and the Rightist president of the 92 department are furious beyond words; even Bertrand Delanoë, the mayor of Paris and president of the 75 department has voiced his unhappiness). But more about that tomorrow.
PS: Another last but not least, this one was frankly the icing on the cake: a surprise amendment passed in the middle of the night in the National Assembly 2 weeks ago withdrew La Défense from the French State and entrusted it to the Greater Paris Metropolis. So from 2016 onwards, it's no more the French government (and the two tiny Rightist municipalities on whose territory La Défense was built) that will have authority over La Défense, but it's the president of the Greater Paris Metropolis who will from then on oversee La Défense.
The Socialist French government said they were opposed to this amendment submitted by a Socialist grass-root deputy and passed in the middle of the night, so we'll see whether it stays in the final version of the bill after the text goes through the Senate's meat grinder.