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  #481  
Old Posted Feb 7, 2021, 12:03 AM
ocman ocman is offline
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~40% of NYC are Trump supporters? What the hell, NYC.
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  #482  
Old Posted Feb 7, 2021, 12:15 AM
Buckeye Native 001 Buckeye Native 001 is offline
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I'd hazard to guess a good chunk of that is Staten Island, some of the Manhattan elite and a couple of Queens neighborhoods? I don't remember where Orthodox Judaism is most prominent, but apparently they supported Trump bigly.
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  #483  
Old Posted Feb 7, 2021, 12:34 AM
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Originally Posted by ocman View Post
~40% of NYC are Trump supporters? What the hell, NYC.
No, Trump's share in NYC proper was only ~23%.

But in the overall NYC MSA, it was ~36%.

Which makes it the 10th least trumpy MSA of the 50 largest MSAs.
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  #484  
Old Posted Feb 7, 2021, 12:50 PM
Crawford Crawford is offline
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Originally Posted by ocman View Post
~40% of NYC are Trump supporters? What the hell, NYC.
More like over 20%.

Around 10% of NYC voters are Orthodox Jewish. They voted 90%+ Trump. That demographic, at least in big numbers, doesn't exist anywhere else outside of Israel. The Ultra Orthodox areas were as high as 98% Trump.

And Italian-Americans, also about 10% of NYC voters, voted Trump, though more like 60/40. That specific demographic (Sicilian-originating postwar migrants) is also pretty much a NYC-specific demographic.

Over time, it's probable the share of GOP voters actually rises in NYC relative to other U.S. city propers. If the Orthodox leadership continues to instruct their flock to vote GOP on a national level, Brooklyn, especially, will have growing GOP numbers each Presidential election.

The most probable reason they're so Trumpy is because leadership believes a Christian-pandering GOP President will be hands off private religious schools. This community has 100% of kids in religious schools, and basically all the schools violate federal law. They're mostly one-issue voters.
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  #485  
Old Posted Feb 7, 2021, 1:46 PM
eschaton eschaton is offline
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Originally Posted by Crawford View Post
More like over 20%.

Around 10% of NYC voters are Orthodox Jewish. They voted 90%+ Trump. That demographic, at least in big numbers, doesn't exist anywhere else outside of Israel. The Ultra Orthodox areas were as high as 98% Trump.

And Italian-Americans, also about 10% of NYC voters, voted Trump, though more like 60/40. That specific demographic (Sicilian-originating postwar migrants) is also pretty much a NYC-specific demographic.

Over time, it's probable the share of GOP voters actually rises in NYC relative to other U.S. city propers. If the Orthodox leadership continues to instruct their flock to vote GOP on a national level, Brooklyn, especially, will have growing GOP numbers each Presidential election.

The most probable reason they're so Trumpy is because leadership believes a Christian-pandering GOP President will be hands off private religious schools. This community has 100% of kids in religious schools, and basically all the schools violate federal law. They're mostly one-issue voters.
There's also the Russian immigrant neighborhoods in South Brooklyn (also heavily Jewish, though not particularly observant) which lean GOP pretty heavily.
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  #486  
Old Posted Feb 7, 2021, 2:17 PM
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Originally Posted by eschaton View Post
There's also the Russian immigrant neighborhoods in South Brooklyn (also heavily Jewish, though not particularly observant) which lean GOP pretty heavily.
Oh, right, them too. And that's another population largely unique to NYC, especially South Brooklyn and Central Queens.

They vote like the Italian-Americans. Definitely pro-Trump among the older generation, but not voting as a solid bloc like the Orthodox. Their numbers aren't growing, and the younger generation votes more like typical secular college educated whites, so probably a temporary phenomenon.

But the Orthodox population is growing, and building political power. If the main U.S. parties don't radically change, I suspect Brooklyn will be a lot more GOP in 2040 than in 2020.
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  #487  
Old Posted Feb 7, 2021, 2:55 PM
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Originally Posted by Crawford View Post
Oh, right, them too. And that's another population largely unique to NYC, especially South Brooklyn and Central Queens.

They vote like the Italian-Americans. Definitely pro-Trump among the older generation, but not voting as a solid bloc like the Orthodox. Their numbers aren't growing, and the younger generation votes more like typical secular college educated whites, so probably a temporary phenomenon.

But the Orthodox population is growing, and building political power. If the main U.S. parties don't radically change, I suspect Brooklyn will be a lot more GOP in 2040 than in 2020.
My impression also is in most of the more "white ethnic" GOP neighborhoods in Brooklyn/Queens the Asian population is exploding, which is tilting them more toward being swing neighborhoods.

But yeah, it's just a matter of time until Brooklyn votes to the right of Queens.
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  #488  
Old Posted Feb 7, 2021, 3:09 PM
Crawford Crawford is offline
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Originally Posted by eschaton View Post
My impression also is in most of the more "white ethnic" GOP neighborhoods in Brooklyn/Queens the Asian population is exploding, which is tilting them more toward being swing neighborhoods.
Southwest Brooklyn, excepting Bay Ridge, is becoming Asian plurality (majority in many tracts) and is demographically more Northern Queens-like. Those areas are trending more Dem, as the ascendant Asians generally vote Dem and the elderly remaining Italians and former Soviets generally now vote GOP.

Bay Ridge is demographically more like Brownstone Brooklyn. It's changing too, but more with the Manhattan/Brownstone Brooklyn set seeking affordable housing. So it's becoming more Dem but a different type of voter.

The rest of Southern Brooklyn, however, excepting a few housing projects and legacy immigrant enclaves, tends to be Orthodox or transitioning towards Orthodox. Those areas will probably be a giant, growing red blob in coming Presidential elections.
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  #489  
Old Posted Feb 7, 2021, 3:30 PM
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Originally Posted by Crawford View Post
Southwest Brooklyn, excepting Bay Ridge, is becoming Asian plurality (majority in many tracts) and is demographically more Queens-like. Those areas are trending more Dem, as the ascendant Asians generally vote Dem and the elderly remaining Italians and former Soviets generally now vote GOP.

Bay Ridge is demographically more like Brownstone Brooklyn. It's changing too, but more with the Manhattan/Brownstone Brooklyn set seeking affordable housing. So it's becoming more Dem but a different type of voter.

The rest of Southern Brooklyn, however, excepting a few housing projects and legacy immigrant enclaves, tends to be Orthodox or transitioning towards Orthodox. Those areas will probably be a giant, growing red blob in coming Presidential elections.
I'm also thinking about Queens here.

South Queens:
Breezy Point - rich gated community on the beach.
Neponsit/Belle Harbor - Other rich beach communities. White ethnic with a growing orthodox population.
Broad Channel - Mostly cops and firemen
Howard Beach/Old Howard Beach/Hamilton Beach - White ethnic, notoriously racist
Queens section of Seven Towns - Orthodox

Northwest Queens:
Middle Village (and a bit of Glendale) - White ethnic. Glendale is turning Latino though slowly.

Northeast Queens:
Kew Gardens Hills - Orthodox
Whitestone - White ethnic, slowly turning Asian/Latino.

Looking at the other boroughs, Manhattan of course has no GOP neighborhoods left. Queens really just has Country Club, although there are still some GOP-voting precincts in Throgs Neck, Edgewater, and Woodlawn Heights.

Staten Island is a special case, since most south/central Staten Island is pretty GOP (heavily so in the far south) but it's slowly drifting leftward since it's mostly middle-class white people.

Edit: Also, in northern Brooklyn there are the Orthodox communities in Crown Heights and Williamsburg, but they are pretty heavily hemmed in now.
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  #490  
Old Posted Feb 7, 2021, 3:45 PM
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Yeah, there are still conservative, Trumpy white ethnic neighborhoods in Queens, but they're mostly shrinking. And some of these communities, like Breezy Point, Broad Channel and Belle Harbor, are tiny enclaves.

Far Rockaway will grow more GOP because it's becoming more Orthodox. Far Rock has some enormous new Orthodox schools and will be a major growth area. Kew Garden Hills/Hollis Hills and environs is also Orthodox and growing. But the rest of "GOP Queens" is shrinking. Queens will ultimately vote more Dem than Brooklyn, at least in national elections.
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  #491  
Old Posted Feb 7, 2021, 9:22 PM
Thirteen Mile Thirteen Mile is offline
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Originally Posted by M II A II R II K View Post
Where Did All The Bellwether Counties Go?

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features...r-counties-go/
Interestingly I was checking out the numbers for Macomb County, MI traditionally one of the key bellwether counties going back to the days of the Regan Democrats and Biden won the city of Warren the counties largest and the states 3rd by nearly the same percentage that trump won it in 2016 by ~52%. On a similar note Sterling Heights was narrowly won by Trump in 2020 again ~52% when he had a more comfortable margin of about 56-57% in 2016 other large Macomb cities and townships such as Clinton Twp. & Mt Clemens went for Biden if it wasn’t for the rapid growth in the northern twps such as Shelby & Macomb the county would have likely flipped back to Biden.

I’ve been looking for a more detailed demographic breakdown which I havn’t been able to find but I can imagine that Trump’s trade war which hurt the booming auto industry played a role in the shift but it wasn’t enough to offset his staunch support in the evangelical community in the new large northern townships.

The Grand Rapids Metro played out in similar fashion Biden won in Kent and Muskegon by small margins but the Dutch evangelical’s of Ottawa county went overwhelmingly for Trump tipping GR into his fold.
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  #492  
Old Posted Feb 7, 2021, 10:13 PM
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Originally Posted by Thirteen Mile View Post
Interestingly I was checking out the numbers for Macomb County, MI traditionally one of the key bellwether counties going back to the days of the Regan Democrats and Biden won the city of Warren the counties largest and the states 3rd by nearly the same percentage that trump won it in 2016 by ~52%. On a similar note Sterling Heights was narrowly won by Trump in 2020 again ~52% when he had a more comfortable margin of about 56-57% in 2016 other large Macomb cities and townships such as Clinton Twp. & Mt Clemens went for Biden if it wasn’t for the rapid growth in the northern twps such as Shelby & Macomb the county would have likely flipped back to Biden.
Southern Macomb County is undergoing rapid demographic transition. Warren, which was like 1% black a few elections ago, is probably 1/3 black or more. Eastpointe is probably majority black. Mt. Clemens, Clinton Township and Sterling Heights are pretty diverse too, though in the case of Sterling Heights, I'm not sure if the Albanians and Iraqis and Lebanese are necessarily Dem. So I suspect some of the Macomb shift is due to demographic changes.

Pretty much all of Macomb County south of Hall Road is rapidly diversifying.
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  #493  
Old Posted Feb 7, 2021, 10:37 PM
Thirteen Mile Thirteen Mile is offline
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True very true I was actually thinking about touching on that point however when thinking of how nuanced the subject is I decided to leave it out Warren for example has significant Ukrainian and (South) Vietnamese communities and even a Tibetan presence which I could imagine have significant conservative leanings.

You touched Sterling Heights with the point of the needle there culturally conservative more so than in Oakland combine that with business interests I would expect to see the “Middle Eastern” vote scrambled and skewed along generational and gender lines.

Though if I had to put my finger on it there’s been a small shift in the blue collar community back towards dems albeit a much larger shift with women (I’m basing this on what I’ve seen from friends and acquaintances in the area) but the black vote is probably the decisive factor in south Macomb.
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  #494  
Old Posted Feb 8, 2021, 12:33 AM
Manitopiaaa Manitopiaaa is offline
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Originally Posted by ocman View Post
~40% of NYC are Trump supporters? What the hell, NYC.
I believe you're referencing the metro area counts on the first page. Those were incomplete counts. Here are the final numbers:

http://skyscraperpage.com/forum/show...&postcount=430

Can a mod swap out the table on the first post of this thread with the 12/19 image in the link?
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  #495  
Old Posted Feb 10, 2021, 9:56 PM
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Post Election Exit Poll Analysis 10 Key Target States

27 Page Study: https://www.politico.com/f/?id=00000...02&nlid=630318

Quote:
.....

• The “Flipped” group are the five states won by Trump/Pence in 2016, but won by Biden in 2020 – Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.

• The “Held” group are the five most competitive states won by Trump/Pence in both 2016 and 2020 – Florida, Iowa, North Carolina, Ohio and Texas.

Key Take-Aways:

• Despite turnout for both state groups being MORE GOP in 2020 than 2016, POTUS lost ground in both groups largely due to a massive swing against POTUS among Indies in both state groups and more GOP ‘leakage’ in “Flipped” states.

• Racially, POTUS suffered his greatest erosion with White voters, particularly White Men in both state groups. However, he made double digit gains with Hispanics in both groups, while his performance among Blacks was virtually the same as 2016.

• POTUS lost ground with almost every age group in both state groupings, but he lost the most with voters 18-29 and 65+ in “Flipped” states. Worse was the double-digit erosion he suffered with White College educated voters across the board.

• Voters who did not vote in ’16 but voted in ’20 accounted for roughly 1-in-6 voters and they broke markedly for Biden, especially in the “Flipped” states. 1-in-10 voters say they decided their vote in the final month of the campaign, and contrary to conventional wisdom, they broke in Biden’s favor in both state groups.

• While Biden’s image was underwater in both state groups, POTUS’s was more so in the “Flipped” states, while he was a net positive in the “Held” states.

• VPOTUS held a marked image advantage over Harris in both state groups where his image was net positive. Harris’s image was worse than Biden’s in both state groups.

• While a majority of voters said they didn’t find either Presidential candidate honest or trustworthy, Biden held a double-digit advantage over POTUS, especially in the “Flipped” states.

• POTUS’s overall job approval was mixed with a majority of voters in the “Flipped” states disapproving while voters in the “Held” states were split down the middle. However, POTUS earned negative marks on handling of Coronavirus (CV) in both groups, particularly in flipped states.

• Conversely, Fauci garnered nearly a 3 to 1 positive job approval on handling of CV overall with Fauci detractors voting overwhelmingly for POTUS while Fauci supporters voted for Biden by wide margins, especially in “Flipped” states.

• Coronavirus (CV) was the top issue in both state groups – more so in “Flipped” states – and Biden carried those voters nearly 3 to 1. The economy ranked second and POTUS crushed Biden with those voters by a 6 to 1 or better margin.

• Voters in “Flipped” states somewhat more negative about the economy than in “Held” states, and voters in “Held” states more likely to choose POTUS to handle the economy.

• While majorities of voters in both state groups prioritized stopping the spread of CV over re-opening the economy, the majority was markedly larger in “Flipped” states. And pluralities in both groups picked Biden as best able to handle CV, not surprisingly by a larger margin in the “Flipped” states.

• State groups were split on whether or not CV was under control with a slight majority of “Flipped” state voters saying no and a majority of “Held” saying yes. And voters were highly polarized based on these positions with voters who say it is under control voting overwhelmingly for POTUS and those who say it isn’t voting overwhelmingly for Biden regardless of state group.

• Three-quarters of voters in both state groups favored public mask mandates. Not surprisingly those who opposed them voted overwhelmingly for POTUS with those who favored them supporting Biden, particularly those in the “Flipped” states.

• 9-in-10 voters in both groups said that SCOTUS was a factor in deciding their vote. Ironically, those who said it was a factor voted for Biden in both state groups while those who said it wasn’t a factor voted for POTUS by large margins.

.....
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  #496  
Old Posted Feb 23, 2021, 4:23 PM
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Democrats lost Texas because of Covid and Republican voter drive, report finds

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/...-report-voters

29 Page Report: https://context-cdn.washingtonpost.c...e38a9d.#page=1

Quote:
.....

- Get-out-the-vote efforts hampered by the coronavirus pandemic and an 11th-hour voter registration surge for well-funded Republicans thwarted ambitions of a blue wave in Texas during the 2020 election, according to a new postmortem that state Democrats shared with the Guardian. — “The majority of Texans, if they were in the ballot box, would vote for Democrats. The problem is that Republicans have a higher likelihood of turning out,” said Hudson Cavanagh, the Texas Democratic party’s data science director who authored the post-election report.

.....
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  #497  
Old Posted Feb 24, 2021, 12:25 AM
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Originally Posted by M II A II R II K View Post
Democrats lost Texas because of Covid and Republican voter drive, report finds

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/...-report-voters

29 Page Report: https://context-cdn.washingtonpost.c...e38a9d.#page=1
And...they nearly flipped the Rio Grande Valley. One county went 55% more for trump in 2020 than in 2016.
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  #498  
Old Posted Feb 24, 2021, 1:01 AM
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metro houston isn't the best place to go looking for the suburban blue shift. though slowly trending blue over the long term, it remains one of the most stubbornly purple MSAs over 3M people in the nation (along with dallas and phoenix).

for a counter-example, look at what happened in atlanta's burbs, and how the significant blue shift there was able to flip the entire state. If the GOP decides to stay on board trump's crazy train, instead of coming back to some semblance of sanity, they likely loose GA again in 2024.
TX needs Stacey Abrams. Dallas has almost the exact same demographics as metro-Atlanta.
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  #499  
Old Posted Feb 24, 2021, 1:07 AM
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Originally Posted by 3rd&Brown View Post
TX needs Stacey Abrams. Dallas has almost the exact same demographics as metro-Atlanta.
They need her for what?

Republicans won Texas by over 600,000 votes. It ain't Georgia.
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  #500  
Old Posted Feb 24, 2021, 1:17 AM
3rd&Brown 3rd&Brown is offline
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Trump did a little better in places like Philadelphia and the Bronx than he did 4 years ago, but he did so poorly in 2016 that there was nowhere to go but up. Biden also got more votes than Hillary in both of those places.

The only places where the Hispanic vote worked in his favor was south Florida and south Texas.
Trump's performance in Philadelphia is explainable. It has large pockets of middle/working class Southern Italians (demographically similar in other convos about Staten Island) in South Philly and Eastern Europeans (Russian, Ukrainian, Belarusian) in Northeast Philly. For some reason, the latter love Trump.

Also, Philadelphia has a deeply unpopular, incompetent Democratic mayor at the moment and shootings and murders were through the roof leading up to the election. It's my hunch that Trump's message about Biden ruining the suburbs resonated not with Philly's suburban voters (as they went far far left, in some cases nearly 20 points left since the last election) but with working class whites in more suburban parts of the city.
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