DFW area attracting 2 million people by 2030?

[austlar1]

Originally Posted by JAYNYC

Not without attracting several major corporate headquarters and / or major corporate satellite offices.

It landed Toyota, Liberty Mutual, JPMorgan Chase and more between 2010-2020, yet still only experienced growth just north of 1 million.

I'd guess +850K-1M would be more likely by '30.

Charles Schwab HQ moving to DFW area where they already have a major back office operation. Mercedes Benz Financial Services just moved to same area. Uber will open large tech hub adjacent to downtown Dallas this year. The list keeps growing. There will be plenty of domestic in-migration. The immigrant growth rate is slowing, but that is happening everywhere in the US right now. I just don't see a big slowdown in the first half of the new decade unless there is a serious recession. In addition to corporate relocations, DFW has always been a big branch office player, and with a decent economy all of that should continue to grow along with existing telecom, logistics, business services, and hospitality. That 2 million figure is more likely to happen by 2040 than 2030.

[JManc]

Originally Posted by badrunner

$685 property tax and $667 HOA
I'd rather get a Dallas McMansion.
Or, for $2700/month total you can rent a decent place in NYC or LA.

You're going to pay the same in property taxes in that McMansion. The deal breaker is that HOA fee which doesn't seem to deter a lot of buyers because these things are sprouting up all over the place. Either way, you're getting equity as opposed to renting in NY or LA.

[Crawford]

Originally Posted by chris08876

Turtle Creek Blvd looks like its in a nice area too. A yankee like me see's these kind of prices, and just salivates. Seems to good to be true. Folks would kill to get that price on an NYC apartment and not some 500 sq ft shoe box on the 2nd floor.

If you see no difference between this lifeless suburban streetscape and Brooklyn, yeah, it's a "great deal". Otherwise, no. I can already move to Paramus if I want such an environment.

And if I'm moving to Dallas I want a house. An apartment absent urbanity is pointless unless you're transient and can't afford a house.

[LA21st]

Originally Posted by badrunner

$685 property tax and $667 HOA
I'd rather get a Dallas McMansion.
Or, for $2700/month total you can rent a decent place in NYC or LA.

Exactly lol.

[chris08876]

Originally Posted by badrunner

$685 property tax and $667 HOA
I'd rather get a Dallas McMansion.
Or, for $2700/month total you can rent a decent place in NYC or LA.

I'm just showing the concept. Even with HOA, its still a bargain. I'd rather buy than rent. Still, a Dallas McMansion is still cheaper than one in NJ or one closer to NYC in Bergen or Connecticut or Long Island.

But there isn't some sort of mystical or voodoo charm as to why some folks are leaving the expensive coasts. Bang for the buck means a lot for folks and if you can land a good job making similar or better than in an expensive state, seems like a good proposition.

Single folks without families can budge in many expensive metros, but you tack on a few kids, a wife, and all the bs that comes with a family, and it gets quite expensive. Day care costs, groceries, private school (because if you live in a dumb neighborhood, those tend to not have the best schools).

Originally Posted by LA21st

Exactly lol.

Renting is like giving that homeless guy in San Francisco your hard earned money. You will never, ever get it back. And than, you'll get a nice raise in your rent by the end of the year as a prize for your compassion.

Makes sense when one is young, but with families, if you want to build a decent net worth, buying is the way to go (for the common folks).

Originally Posted by Crawford

If you see no difference between this lifeless suburban streetscape and Brooklyn, yeah, it's a "great deal". Otherwise, no. I can already move to Paramus if I want such an environment.

And if I'm moving to Dallas I want a house. An apartment absent urbanity is pointless unless you're transient and can't afford a house.

We must not forget the idea of order of magnitudes. We are talking about how DFW area attracting 2 million people by 2030. Its not just a select club that can afford those high priced neighborhoods.

When we are talking the common folks, we have to set the standard to show reality. A tree lined street in DoBro or DUMBO or Carroll Gardens is not reality for most folks.

[LA21st]

Originally Posted by chris08876

I'm just showing the concept. Even with HOA, its still a bargain. I'd rather buy than rent. Still, a Dallas McMansion is still cheaper than one in NJ or one closer to NYC in Bergen or Connecticut or Long Island.

But there isn't some sort of mystical or voodoo charm as to why some folks are leaving the expensive coasts. Bang for the buck means a lot for folks and if you can land a good job making similar or better than in an expensive state, seems like a good proposition.

Single folks without families can budge in many expensive metros, but you tack on a few kids, a wife, and all the bs that comes with a family, and it gets quite expensive. Day care costs, groceries, private school (because if you live in a dumb neighborhood, those tend to not have the best schools).



Renting is like giving that homeless guy in San Francisco your hard earned money. You will never, ever get it back. And than, you'll get a nice raise in your rent by the end of the year as a prize for your compassion.

Makes sense when one is young, but with families, if you want to build a decent net worth, buying is the way to go (for the common folks).



We must not forget the idea of order of magnitudes. We are talking about how DFW area attracting 2 million people by 2030. Its not just a select club that can afford those high priced neighborhoods.

When we are talking the common folks, we have to set the standard to show reality. A tree lined street in DoBro or DUMBO or Carroll Gardens is not reality for most folks.

Aren't the prices going up in Texas? Austin/Dallas etc? I don't think theyll be able to keep those prices low forever and something else will take its place as a more affordable option. I can see this happening this decade.

[JManc]

Originally Posted by Crawford

If you see no difference between this lifeless suburban streetscape and Brooklyn, yeah, it's a "great deal". Otherwise, no. I can already move to Paramus if I want such an environment.

And if I'm moving to Dallas I want a house. An apartment absent urbanity is pointless unless you're transient and can't afford a house.

Turtle Creek is not some 'lifeless suburban streetscape'. It's a bustling part of Dallas and while most people who move to Dallas want a house, many do not. The trend nationally are these types of condos and apartments.

[dimondpark]

Originally Posted by LA21st

Aren't the prices going up in Texas? Austin/Dallas etc? I don't think theyll be able to keep those prices low forever and something else will take its place as a more affordable option. I can see this happening this decade.

Yes affordability is becoming a major issue there.

Here's a recent headline from the Dallas Business Journal: Dallas-Fort Worth median home prices unaffordable for average wage earners

https://www.bizjournals.com/dallas/n...ffordable.html

[austlar1]

Originally Posted by dimondpark

Yes affordability is becoming a major issue there.

Here's a recent headline from the Dallas Business Journal: Dallas-Fort Worth median home prices unaffordable for average wage earners

https://www.bizjournals.com/dallas/n...ffordable.html

The area is still very attractively priced for transplants with good job prospects. It is no longer a place where low wage earners can automatically achieve home ownership, especially not in relatively safe central neighborhoods like North Dallas or SW/westside Fort Worth. The median list price per square foot in Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington Metro is $140, which is higher than the Texas average of $130. The median price of homes currently listed in Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington Metro is $319,900 while the median price of homes that sold is $262,400. There are still many blue collar/working class areas located at some distance from the city centers, or closer to the city centers in "less than favored quarters" (I really hate that "favored quarters" terminology), where 3 bedroom homes are routinely sold for under $200,000. The truth is that the median price home is "unaffordable" to a majority of wage earners almost everywhere in the US. Of course, "unaffordable" means different things in different locales to different people. DFW is still a good deal for many likely newcomers and transplants. https://www.prnewswire.com/news-rele...300977267.html

[JManc]

Originally Posted by LA21st

Aren't the prices going up in Texas? Austin/Dallas etc? I don't think theyll be able to keep those prices low forever and something else will take its place as a more affordable option. I can see this happening this decade.

Yes. You can get good deals but often in less desirable places but Dallas, Austin, Houston are pricing the working class out in safe, solid neighborhoods. As someone mentioned, these cities are affordable by coastal standards but for Texas, they are getting expensive. My wife and I are looking at townhouses close(r) into town and they run about 500-600k.

[LA21st]

Yea, I understand it's creeping up and still relatively affordable now.
I was thinking what it's going to be like in 5-10 years.

[JAYNYC]

Originally Posted by austlar1

I just don't see a big slowdown in the first half of the new decade unless there is a serious recession.

Okay, but do you realistically see the area's growth doubling what happened between 2010-2020 (which is the question being posed by the OP)?

[dimondpark]

This is a very interesting stat that really dispels the myth that just because some locations have lower prices, that doesnt automatically equate to greater affordability.

5-Year Census Data: The percentage of people by MSA who spend 35% or more of their income on rent.
1. San Jose MSA: 36.4%
2. Nashville MSA: 36.6%
3. Phoenix MSA: 37.4%
4T. Charlotte MSA: 37.5%
4T. San Francisco MSA: 37.5%
6. Minneapolis MSA: 37.6%
7T. Dallas MSA: 37.8%
7T. Seattle MSA: 37.8%
9T. Washington DC MSA: 38.2%
9T. St. Louis MSA: 38.2%
11. Boston MSA: 39.2%
12. Austin MSA: 39.4%
13. Chicago MSA: 39.5%
14. Jacksonville MSA: 39.6%
15. Portland MSA: 39.9%
16. Detroit MSA: 40.1%
17. Atlanta MSA: 40.5%
18T. Houston MSA: 40.8%
18T. San Antonio MSA: 40.8%
20. Baltimore MSA: 41%
21. Denver MSA: 41.6%
22. Philadelphia MSA: 42.2%
23. NYC MSA: 43.2%
24T. Las Vegas MSA: 43.4%
24T. Tampa MSA: 43.4%
26. Honolulu MSA: 44.6%
27. Sacramento MSA: 46%
28. Orlando MSA: 46.3%
29. San Diego MSA: 48.2%
30. Riverside, CA MSA: 49.9%
31. New Orleans MSA: 50.6%
32. Miami MSA: 52.7%
33. Los Angeles MSA: 56.9%

[austlar1]

Originally Posted by JAYNYC

Okay, but do you realistically see the area's growth doubling what happened between 2010-2020 (which is the question being posed by the OP)?

If you read my earlier post (top of page), I clearly stated that I did not think DFW would be likely to add 2 million new residents anytime before 2040. I think that answer was pretty much on topic.

[austlar1]

Re: the DFW economy. The retail sector is poised to take a hit. Looks like FW based Pier1 is just about toast, and Plano based JC Penny is not looking good. Neiman Marcus might be the last large surviving DFW based retail entity.
https://www.dallasnews.com/business/...se-450-stores/

[AviationGuy]

The listed condo earlier seems awfully low priced for Turtle Creek (near downtown). Wonder if there's something wrong with it. I've seen far higher priced condos of the same size in that area. In the burbs, though, it's easier to find lower priced condos, including very nice ones.

Newcomers I've talked to have arrived expecting low priced super nice properties in the inner cities here. While it's still easy to find such properties in the suburbs, once you start looking in the cities proper, the prices are quite high. Austin's property values in the city are ridiculous. Yet the demand is so great that a typical in-city property in places like Dallas, Houston, and Austin will have back-up offers. So if I put my 53-year old, 1400 ft2 non-updated home on the market for $525K (the actual market value estimated by my realtor), I'm likely to get multiple back-up offers and will end up selling it for more than asking price. I'm about 4.5 miles from downtown and people will buy property no matter what condition. The updated homes go for much higher prices. There are also a lot of tear downs, and the new construction in my neighborhood (including one on my street) are going for the low $1M's. But again, the burbs still have incredibly good prices in master planned communities with good schools, and a lot of families are looking for just that.

[AviationGuy]

Originally Posted by badrunner

$685 property tax and $667 HOA
I'd rather get a Dallas McMansion.
Or, for $2700/month total you can rent a decent place in NYC or LA.

Insurance is probably in addition, too.

[dollaztx]

Originally Posted by dimondpark

Seriously doubt it. The growth rate is already decreasing.

Dallas-Ft Worth MSA Pop Growth:
1980-1990 +32.09% +974,000
1990-2000 +29.38% +1,187,000
2000-2010 +23.22% +1,205,000
2010-2018 +16.86% +1,078,000

I'm sorry, are you comparing 2010-2018 to 2000-2008 and so on or 8 yrs to 10 yrs? Just wondering cause if it has grown by 1,078,000 than on average it would grow 269,500 more by 2020 to a total numerical growth of 1,347,500. That would put it at about 21% which would still have it just slightly decreasing in percentage but not numerically.

On the OP's question, I highly doubt DFW adds 2 mil. I think it will continue it's current growth but no way it will grow that much.

[dimondpark]

Originally Posted by dollaztx

I'm sorry, are you comparing 2010-2018 to 2000-2008 and so on or 8 yrs to 10 yrs? Just wondering cause if it has grown by 1,078,000 than on average it would grow 269,500 more by 2020 to a total numerical growth of 1,347,500. That would put it at about 21% which would still have it just slightly decreasing in percentage but not numerically.

On the OP's question, I highly doubt DFW adds 2 mil. I think it will continue it's current growth but no way it will grow that much.

The census bureau only goes up to 2018 so that's as far as I could go, and your projection could be true, we'll have to wait and see.

The decline in percentage is clear tho.

[JAYNYC]

^ Curious, how does DFW's MSA percentage decline by decade compare to that of the Bay Area's MSA?

I'm sure you've done the math.