Worldwide Demographics

[iheartthed]

Originally Posted by JoninATX

It will be along time before Texas overtakes California.

Yeah, they've basically grown in parallel for the last two decades. Florida probably has a better chance of catching Texas.

[LA21st]

Originally Posted by dubu

probably 5 years. people are leaving cities on the east coast too and moving to smaller cities close by and to texas or something. thats a good thing with california because it could have a natural disaster some day.

Did you say Texas will be bigger than California in 5 years?

[LA21st]

Originally Posted by yuriandrade

Texas is adding 4 million people/decade, and even if California sees zero growth forever, the overcome would happen only in 2045 and till then lots of things could happen, including Texas becoming another big, dense, low growth state. A bigger Ohio.

Texas will slow down (it already has) as it becomes more expensive. Those same people looking for lower costs will move somewhere else.

[dubu]

Originally Posted by iheartthed

Yeah, they've basically grown in parallel for the last two decades. Florida probably has a better chance of catching Texas.

florida has the same problem as california of sinking. texas only has flooding and heat is a big issue, california and florida are real hot also though. texas would be the last place id move to if i was moving from california or one of the failing states. i love the cold.

[Dale]

Originally Posted by dubu

florida has the same problem as california of sinking. texas only has flooding and heat is a big issue, california and florida are real hot also though. texas would be the last place id move to if i was moving from california or one of the failing states. i love the cold.

I get the impression that most Californians are moving to California, TX, AKA: Austin ... presumably due to cultural similarities but much better bang-for-buck.

[iheartthed]

Originally Posted by dubu

florida has the same problem as california of sinking. texas only has flooding and heat is a big issue, california and florida are real hot also though. texas would be the last place id move to if i was moving from california or one of the failing states. i love the cold.

How is California sinking? It seems best positioned of those three states against the threat of rising sea levels, but maybe I'm missing something.

[homebucket]

Actually according to this article the counties most Californians are moving to Harris, Dallas, Tarrant, and Bexar.

https://www.narcity.com/en-us/news/a...isnt-in-danger

[wwmiv]

Originally Posted by homebucket

Actually according to this article the counties most Californians are moving to Harris, Dallas, Tarrant, and Bexar.

https://www.narcity.com/en-us/news/a...isnt-in-danger

Austin gets so much in-migration from the entire country that Californians don’t really make much difference proportionally, even if they are numerically still a large number.

[Yuri]

We've seen decennial data for Mexico, Sweden and Denmark. Now Austria:

1981 ---- 7.555.338

1991 ---- 7.795.786 --- 3.18%

2001 ---- 8.032.857 --- 3.04%

2011 ---- 8.401.940 --- 4.59%

2021 ---- 8.933.346 --- 6.32%

As many other Western European countries, Austria is growing faster.

And Vienna agglomeration (1,110 km²), two decades straight at double-digit rates:

1981 ---- 1.772.716

1991 ---- 1.799.095 --- 1.49%

2001 ---- 1.830.053 --- 1.72%

2011 ---- 2.020.194 -- 10.39%

2021 ---- 2.248.526 -- 11.30%

[dubu]

Originally Posted by yuriandrade

Mexicans released their 2020 Census results

----------------------- 2020 -------- 2010 -------- 2000

MEXICO ----------- 126,014,024 -- 112,336,538 --- 97,483,412 --- 12.18% --- 15.24%

Mexico City ------- 21,804,515 --- 20,116,842 --- 18,396,677 ---- 8.39% ---- 9.35%
Monterrey ---------- 5,341,177 ---- 4,226,031 ---- 3,426,352 --- 26.39% --- 23.34%
Guadalajara -------- 5,268,642 ---- 4,521,755 ---- 3,772,833 --- 16.52% --- 19.85%
Puebla ------------- 3,199,530 ---- 2,728,790 ---- 2,269,995 --- 17.25% --- 20.21%
Toluca ------------- 2,353,924 ---- 2,014,091 ---- 1,605,571 --- 16.87% --- 25.44%
Tijuana ------------ 2,157,853 ---- 1,751,430 ---- 1,352,035 --- 23.21% --- 29.54%
León --------------- 1,924,771 ---- 1,609,504 ---- 1,269,179 --- 19.59% --- 26.81%
Querétaro ---------- 1,594,212 ---- 1,161,458 ------ 873,298 --- 37.26% --- 33.00%
Ciudad Juárez ------ 1,512,450 ---- 1,332,131 ---- 1,218,817 --- 13.54% ---- 9.30%

--- Mexico City growth didn't collapse as estimates suggested. In fact, it seems to be converging with the national average.

--- Monterrey overtook Guadalajara as the country's 2nd city and it grew faster than the past decade? Maybe US Mexicans returning?

i didnt see this, it was far back. a lot of people wow.

[Mimol742]

Originally Posted by dubu

i didnt see this, it was far back. a lot of people wow.

High natality rate. Nothing strange there since Mexico is still a developing country.

[Mimol742]

Originally Posted by LA21st

Texas will slow down (it already has) as it becomes more expensive. Those same people looking for lower costs will move somewhere else.

It’s still very cheap in comparison to the coasts. Texas has the weather and low tax environment. That’s not gonna change anytime soon so I expect Texas to become the most populous state in the country by 2050.

[LA21st]

Originally Posted by Mimol742

It’s still very cheap in comparison to the coasts. Texas has the weather and low tax environment. That’s not gonna change anytime soon so I expect Texas to become the most populous state in the country by 2050.

People will find a cheaper place to live.
Its gonna happen. You can't expect trends to stay the same, and Texas growth is already slowing.

[Yuri]

Originally Posted by Mimol742

It’s still very cheap in comparison to the coasts. Texas has the weather and low tax environment. That’s not gonna change anytime soon so I expect Texas to become the most populous state in the country by 2050.

All long-term predictions are useless. Within 30 years, everything can happen, including Texas losing people for cheaper Oklahoma, Arkansas, Nebraska or even some Rust Belt state. Who knows the new trends?

California, for instance, had a great 2000's (10% growth or 3.5 million people), with San Francisco metro area once again speeding up. Now, merely 10 years later, the state population is shrinking. Things change fast, specially in the US where people keep moving like crazy.

Originally Posted by dubu

i didnt see this, it was far back. a lot of people wow.

Brazil was unique in Latin America for always having strong and prosperous regional centres all over the country, exerting strong influence over their hinterlands. It seems Mexico is finally join this US, Canada and Brazil club, developing a network of metropolises.

[MolsonExport]

The American population as a whole is growing at a much slower rate than anytime in almost a century.

[Crawford]

Originally Posted by Mimol742

High natality rate. Nothing strange there since Mexico is still a developing country.

Mexico's natality rate is low; barely more than that of the U.S.

Its urban centers are growing because the countryside is emptying out and immigration to U.S. has cratered. Look at the crazy growth rates in Queretaro, which centers on a region famous for exporting its people to the U.S.

Really all of Latin America has a crashing natality rate. A country doesn't need to be wealthy to have low birthrates. Secularism and birth control will do the trick.

[LA21st]

Originally Posted by yuriandrade

All long-term predictions are useless. Within 30 years, everything can happen, including Texas losing people for cheaper Oklahoma, Arkansas, Nebraska or even some Rust Belt state. Who knows the new trends?

California, for instance, had a great 2000's (10% growth or 3.5 million people), with San Francisco metro area once again speeding up. Now, merely 10 years later, the state population is shrinking. Things change fast, specially in the US where people keep moving like crazy.




Brazil was unique in Latin America for always having strong and prosperous regional centres all over the country, exerting strong influence over their hinterlands. It seems Mexico is finally join this US, Canada and Brazil club, developing a network of metropolises.

Yea, it's just wishful thinking Texas will keep up.

[JManc]

Originally Posted by homebucket

Actually according to this article the counties most Californians are moving to Harris, Dallas, Tarrant, and Bexar.

https://www.narcity.com/en-us/news/a...isnt-in-danger

There a LOT of people from California around here. You have to beat them back with a stick. That said, I hope we don't get to a point where Texas suprasses CA in population.

I wonder when Californians will discover northern LA and Kern counties. It's hot AF but affordable and close to the LA area.

[JoninATX]

Originally Posted by iheartthed

Yeah, they've basically grown in parallel for the last two decades. Florida probably has a better chance of catching Texas.

I personally don't see Florida gaining on Texas anytime soon. In fact it's the opposite. Texas has been pulling away for a while now with a 5 million gap between the two in 2000 to a 8 million gap in 2020.

[Yuri]

2020 United States vital stats are available: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demogr...tics_from_1935

Births: 3,605,201
Deaths: 3,361,760

A shocking 500,000 increase on deaths, while births continue to collapse, the lowest number since 1979, when the overall population was only 2/3 of today's.

Natural growth was only 243k in 2020, down from 890k in 2019 and from 1.9 million in 2007.

TFR is not available yet, but it seems to have fallen below 1.65, and that's the 13th year straight where it's lower than the previous year.